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Doubloon, thanks.
For all the time and effort, calling the company, reporting back here, posting DD and your analysis, you sure helped keep me in this stock and buying more on the dips. Well, "dip", it was just one long dip wasn't it LOL.
Seriously guy, thanks, this is a fun ride.
Oh, also, some friends of mine send thanks too, I got some friends from TIV in here and they are VERY happy campers, just got off the phone with one of them. I told them not to thank me, but rather to thank YOU.
jonesie
Head fake yesterday.
Waiting.
Bolly Bands tightening up.
Shouldn't be long.
jonesie
Ugly indeed.
I kept a few shares of GTE to keep it on my main screen but ... this selling is relentless. Isn't the PPS sub-dime pre-split?
Waiting for the good confirmed bottom to buy the real stake.
GLTA
jonesie
"Cursed be the weak-kneed, the profit-takers, the day-traders, the shorts and the manipulators."
Add to that list the longs, the strong hands, the buy/holders, and the swingtraders ... and you have the stock market.
It all comes as a package :)
jonesie
p.s. But I know what you mean lol, since I only go long I love seeing a stock go parabolic more than anything else, the dang market just won't cooperate every day.
Ken, re: "E's", good call.
One of the E's, AAME, was the biggest mover of the day. A buy at the open this morning garnered a 12.78% gain, with AAME closing at the high of the day.
Good call, but ya hafta tell me why :)
jonesie
Scan results at close 9/20
VSNI popped out too but I'm not sure about that.
IBD Rating before each chart.
D+
D+
C
"Is this anything?"
Who here knows the Letterman segment "Is this anything?"
That's the question here. VSNI. I'm in it, and happy.
But is it a Magic Box setup?
I keep forgetting to post these sub-$1 stocks here.
CKPI, anyone think this is an interesting chart?
CKPI, a "little" one I'm in.
The day's not over but does anyone think this is interesting?
Ken, re: "E"'s
:) I know what you mean, I've seen so many HUGE moves over time in stocks that were once E's in the IBD rating system. TIV, formerly tril.ob, is a good example of that. It was an E when it was 1.50, an A at $17. Bought the E, sold the A.
However, so far in my tracking spreadsheet I "think" I am seeing (just cuz I haven't done the final analysis yet, need more hours in the day) more of a "guarantee" of at least a 5% pop in the A's, with less of a downside before getting there ... a downside that could shake a tight stop loss out.
Will send it to you once I'm done. I've still got to get my head around your Liquidity ratio and how to determine with a glance if a stock gets a Yes or a No in that category, then delve into the Knights Crossing which I haven't had time to look at yet, so I can incorporate that as well.
But seriously, you think out of that last group you'd grab the E's first? I'm all ears :)
regards,
jonesie
Gaps
What about the gap from .40 to .41 between Friday and Monday?
Hate to say it but NEOM might as well fill that and get it out of the way.
I wish "you guys" would stop gapping NEOM up LOL.
I'M sure not the one doing it. Just give me the dips and the backfilling.
;)
jonesie
Scan results at close yesterday:
Magic Box setups, mix of some that initiated wtih lower BB hits, BB median-line hits, and other "supported" Magic Box setups.
Included IBD Stock Checkup Rating before each chart.
A+
B+
A+
B+
B+
C
A
A+
A+
C
E
D
E
B-
d-k, waschbaer, thanks.
Appreciate the input.
Still working on my scans and tracking so I probably won't be buying ESV, just interested in how it plays out.
Waschbaer, what generates your charts? They have a nice clean look to them for when you want to show something simply and clearly. Just curious.
jonesie
CHID chart:
W%R(9) finally crossed 50 yesterday, I'm not sure I'm buying it yet though.
University of Michigan Sentiment Index Gives a Stock Market Crash Warning
September 18, 2005
by Robert McHugh
We've been presenting this chart for three years now, and have been pointing out that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index gave an early warning of a stock market crash back in early 2000. It gave a very early warning by tracing out a Head & Shoulders top in 1999 and 2000, then actually gave a stock market crash signal when it plunged below the neckline of the H&S pattern. Sure enough, the Dow Industrials plunged shortly thereafter, an initial 2,000 point collapse.
(see link below for charts)
Since then, correlation has continued to be truly remarkable between this consumer sentiment gauge and the price movements of the Dow Industrials. Often the sentiment index and equity prices move contemporaneously, so we do not benefit from foresight. However, on occasion, we do get an early warning as the sentiment index leads prices. About a year ago, we identified another very early warning by the U. of Michigan sentiment gauge, a Head & Shoulders Top. It unfolded over a three year period, but as the right shoulder completed, we were able to measure the potential decline coming in the Dow Industrials. The initial decline would be in the 1,800 to 2,000 point range. All we awaited was a decisive break below the neckline.
That occurred Friday September 16th, when the University of Michigan released its September confidence measure - a plunge in confidence from 87.1 (the neckline) to 76.9, a 12.2 dive. This, my dear friends is a Stock Market Crash warning. It is the worst single month plunge in the index since before 1997. The third worst one-month decline occurred in December 2000, down 9.2. The Dow started crashing the very next month, in January 2001, and kept going lower for almost two more years. The second worst occurred in September 2001, but was contemporaneous with the 9/11 equity market decline. There are no guarantees, of course, but stand up and take notice: Today's MCSI plunge was worse than 9/11's.
Validating the MCSI signal is an analog of the Japanese Tokyo Nikkei Index from 1984 through 1997 versus the Dow Industrials from 1995, also warning that right now, during the next month, a crash occurred in the Nikkei and is thus due in the Dow Industrials. Right now. Amazing. Analogues eventually break apart, but so far this one hasn't. Hope the Plunge Protection Team have their buy orders lined up.
(see link below for charts)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-3799.htm
ESV
This one came out of Friday's Magic Box scans on a new pool of stocks to scan. (S&P400 stocks with the strongest IBD ratings, PPS > $15, no Canadian stocks, ADV > 100K, within 15% of 52-week high)
Quite a move on a down market day.
SIMG
Tried to make a move off a BB median-line Magic Box & a Fairy Square but broke down today. Guess quite a few stocks did that today.
Lefty,
This particular stock I am treating as more of a buy/hold for a while, now using TA for entry points. It seems to be very undervalued relative to its peers. Probably has to do with being a non-reporting pinkie at the moment? Word is that the auditors are working hard on the 10-Q and the objective is to get that out soon and go straight to the Naz as soon as possible. IMO once they do that, TDYH should garner a PE multiple more like some of its peers. Check out the TDYH board here on IHUB, particularly doubloon's posts, he just talked to management again, he talks with them regularly.
Exit strategies, sometimes the hardest part. I had the buy/hold mentality for so long that selling still comes hard for me. I'm trying to work with stocks that I basically know NOTHING about beyond the company name lol then the buy/sell will be based strictly on TA and, yeah, for the most part just grabbing the quick 5% gains, maybe watching very closely for signs that >5% may be attainable and then holding for a bit longer. That's more time consuming though, and as you said via email, it's more mechanical to grab the quick gains and move on, necessitating fewer judgement calls, at least for now.
I'm close to having about 100 stocks that my scans have spit out backtested and spreadsheeted, basically with IBD rating (B+ to A+ Yes/No), Magic Box Yes/No, Fairy Square Yes/No, Knights Crossing Yes/No, Ken's Ultimate Indicator Yes/No, Met Ken's Volatility criteria Yes/No, Met Ken's Liquidity criteria Yes/No. Spreadsheet notes the high after the M.B. setup, (and any low prior to a high which might have made a stop loss rule kick in), and also tracks current price and longer term gains. Then matching up the short term 5%-minimum gainers with an analysis of which criteria were met should help to create the final "profile". This profile will take the large-ish number of stocks my scans turn up and greatly pare them down to a much smaller group of "don't even think about it, just buy them tomorrow at the open" stocks.
jonesie
p.s. 'course, have to remember that we're generally in an up market overall right now, some of these stocks have been energy stocks, etc etc etc. Not sure it matters. It will be interesting to see how the tools fare in a down market, for instance. Methods always work .. until they don't LOL.
Steelers, re: Virgin Megastore trip
Thanks for the update! That's exciting to hear!
jonesie
This is nice.
And hopefully just the beginning.
jonesie
TDYH
Making a beautiful move off a classic Magic Box setup. It was just a matter of waiting for W%R(9) to cross the 50.
(Gamblers could have bought at what turned out to be the bottom, in hindsight. I had posted on the TDYH IHUB board that "they" would probably take it back to the earliest trade prices, ~ 1.35. Bingo.)
NEOM rocking this morning on "heavy" volume so far.
Nice Magic Box setup, Ken you've had good thoughts on this stock as I recall.
jonesie
Ken,
Would the concept of "once everybody starts doing something the same way, it no longer works" apply here?
Sssshhhhhhhh
LOL, JMHO, you go guy.
jonesie
Flyer,
Trading for a Living by Dr. Alexander Elder. Good basic explanation of charting and indicators, along with money management, market psychology, and above all .. discipline. It is highly regarded as a must-read book, it was written quite some time ago but much of "this" just doesn't change.
jonesie
Yep, that's the confirmation and, depending on the stock I use it as a buy signal as well. I look at other indicators as well but mostly I've been running with the Magic Box, going in bigger when there's a Fairy Square, and I'm spending time this weekend internalizing the Knights Crossing. I generally buy at the open with a limit, depending on the momentum going into the day, strong or weak. Weak might have me watch it for a bit.
Answered the rest in a private msg to you. Can you get private msgs on here? I'm thinking maybe not. Feel free to email me, addy is in my profile, just click on my ID.
jonesie
lefty,
No idea on what that pop was about, could only speculate on the usual "reasons".
The TA setup goes kind of like this:
Aroon Down (8) sits at 100 when a red candle hits the lower Bollinger Band (20,2). That's Day 1. Day 2 has a white candle and Aroon Down moves to 87.50. Then you wait until W%R(9) moves up over 50. That move by itself, in "a lot" of instances, presages price appreciation. Works better in stocks rated A in IBD, you know, plenty of liquidity, fewer games, etc. It has nothing to do with the annotated box I put in, although the setup I just described is called the Magic Box.
Now that box I drew in looks back a bit in time from when the setup described above (the Magic Box) is confirmed. (Like, if TIV keeps its W%R over 50 today, that would be confirmation.) To draw that box you start with the lower right hand corner at the Aroon Down 87.50 which was part of the Magic Box setup that just got confirmed, then draw a line horizontally to the left to the Aroon Down at 87.50 which relates to the PREVIOUS Magic Box confirmation. Not just the next Aroon Down over to the left, but the Aroon Down that was part of a definite Magic Box confirmation. Then you draw the left side by going vertically to the Bollinger Band median line, usually a dotted line between the upper and lower BB's in your charts. Then draw the top by going east from there back to the point above where you started, then come down to your starting point. If the upper BB pierces THAT box, in a lot of cases it signifies the potential for even greater price appreciation than does the Magic Box all by itself. Obviously it shows up when a stock has been in a bit of a downtrend, otherwise the upper BB would never pierce the box.
That "looking back" bit is called the Fairy Square LOL. All these tools have names just for ease of remembering the setup as a whole. Ken Goodman and two other men have been working on these and many others for quite a while, very nice guys, Ken's a saint, if you're interested I'll hook you up.
Just one of many quick tools that I scan lists of stocks with by using my chartscripts in WealthLabPro. It ain't easy programming to find all these sequential moves, but it's worth it in the end. Once you start seeing these things and draw a few out, then keep track of how the stock moved afterwards, what KINDS of stocks moved afterwards, you know, all the documentation you do on real trades or paper trades to make sense out of what you're doing and why you did it and how it turned out ... then you REALLY start seeing them in charts quickly.
Aside from the few stocks we all like to buy and hold based on the longer term "story" that might come with the stock, like on TIV, or the little one I like, NEOM, this kind of thing I'm describing above lets you turn the stock market into an ATM machine, grabbing 5% to 20% in just a very few days on as many stocks as you have the time to keep track of and play. These tools help on the stocks you hold to, for buy points, and even selling points if you want to swing trade a few shares around your core position.
shwewwww, wrote too much, gotta go, contractors here at the house doing some work for me.
jonesie
d-k, re: annotation shift ...
Stockcharts.com sent an email to me saying that when the vertical line of a box is near a candle it tends to snap to the middle of the nearest candle, causing the shift.
jonesie
TIV, another one that may be setting up.
GTE
May be setting up for a Magic Box, need confirmation.
Would have a Fairy square too.
Sorry for the offset Fairy Square box, it looks great when I do it but after it uploads it offsets for some reason.
LEXR:
Just a pretty chart. Ken, I wish I had gotten into your Magic Box etc. tools earlier, I would have gone into LEXR in a bigger way.
What the heck was THAT at the open?
martyMAC, CDIK
A penny from the scans.
MRTN
One to watch for Magic Box confirmation. IBD rating B+
d-k, thanks.
That was my question exactly, does "just made it" count :)
Yes, I see it did not conrirm.
Thanks again for your reply.
SBC, Fairy Square?
Can someone tell me, if SBC finishes off the day looking like this with W%R having crossed 50, will it be a Fairy Square?
Looks like it to me.
Thanks! -jonesie
Hi Lefty,
Copied below is the standard support/resistance info from stockconsultant.com. It shows what you are talking about with regards to what might happen if that support was broken. I think you have a good trendline there, it will be interesting to see how it turns out.
Several indicators on my chart are in "oversold" territory but not all, and each has a ways to go (down) before one could say TIV was VERY oversold. I got out of the business of guessing bottoms, my last large purchase based on the Fib. retrace to $8.72 worked out well but ... well, I tend to wait for the "hindsight confirmation" that a bottom was a bottom :)
jonesie
from stockconsultants.com:
CURRENT PRICE 9.76, just below resistance or support, 10.27 ± 0.44, type triple+, strength 10
RESISTANCE ABOVE
+5.2% at 10.27 ± 0.44, type triple+, strength 10
+21.9% at 11.9 ± 0.51, type triple, strength 7
+33.4% at 13.02 ± 0.56, type triple+, strength 10
+46.9% at 14.34 ± 0.62, type double, strength 6
+68.8% at 16.47 ± 0.71, type single, strength 5
SUPPORT BELOW
-5.9% at 9.18 ± 0.39, type single, strength 5
Upside Trade Trade indicators for long trades.
TRADE QUALITY 70%, Good
Good trade quality is a combination of good profit, profit/loss ratio and target potential.
TARGET 1 Price: 12.56 Profit: 28.7% , for a typical rally.
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 9.3 Loss: 4.7%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 6.1 : 1 - Excellent
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Poor, there are 2 resistance areas on the way to Target 1.
Strong resistance areas may reduce the potential to reach long Targets 1 & 2.
TARGET 1 RESISTANCE
+5.2% at 10.27 ± 0.44, type triple+, strength 10
+21.9% at 11.9 ± 0.51, type triple, strength 7
+28.7% at 12.56 is Target 1
TARGET 2 Price: 13.02 Profit: 33.4% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 7.1 : 1 - Excellent for an extreme rally.
BREAKOUT None.
Downside Trade Trade indicators for short trades.
TRADE QUALITY 100%, Excellent
TARGET 1 Price: 7.7 Profit: 21.1% , for a typical pullback.
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 10.31 Loss: 5.6%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.8 : 1 - Excellent
TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 1 support areas on the way to Target 1.
Stocks may quickly fall to Targets when there are not many support areas blocking the way.
TARGET 1 SUPPORT
-5.9% at 9.18 ± 0.39, type single, strength 5
-21.1% at 7.7 is Target 1
TARGET 2 Price: 6.9 Profit: 29.3% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 5.2 : 1 - Excellent for an extreme pullback.
BREAKDOWN None.