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Fitz, why don't you re'enter and hedge overnight or intraday right now?
I am adding some new puts pretty soon.
But with options, the prime directive is protect capital.~d eom
There will be more days like this, don't feel bad. I am closing half my position now, and will probably rue it as well.
~d
For the last month I have been watching huge block sells on the SPY every day like clockwork, beginning at about 2740. 250K all the way up to a million or so.
When the SPY just kept climbing I dismissed it as some weird hedging activity, particularly after June 1, but just thought I'd mention it now.
2740 may turn out to be important going forward, afte rall.
~d
Edit: not last month, last month and a half.
I could be wrong too. What I've learned over the years that options trading is about position sizing, not being accurate. Netneutral is the expert here on that. Head and shoulders above everyone else here.
~d
Huge options OI and volume building up for next Friday, too. A straddle here might be useful.
~d
I think tomorrow may be the low, not today. Just musing.
There seems to be, however, some real accumulation quietly going on, on the 305 call expiring tomorrow.
I love that message on ToS while you are waiting for customer support, "We want to help our customers soooo much so we're not giving you any extension on margin calls."
~d
If there are any newbies watching and have ToS, add a volume profile to your charts, open them up in different time frames and you'll see why the SPY sliced from 310 to 320 and back down like through butter.
~d
Oh yes (fold up the tent)....sigh...I should tattoo that one on my head, lol. ~d eom
I think you are right, masked man.
Wishing you the best, too.
~D
They're still selling like crazy and the early hod of the SPY 305 put was exceeded, but now it looks like there is some real selling coming in on the put.
Rolled over 305 calls to 300 for tomorrow and will partially close put position at 300, as previously stated.
I would have added another contract at 303 and change, but we are in the initial phase of a trend change and it's risky to go counter trend.
~d
LOL. Yes, I think we see much lower tomorrow. Just looking for an intraday dcb, it's overdue.
~d
Still in calls at a loss and have long term July puts for upcoming June Hurst low, which could be as early as tomorrow.
Originally? That's a long time ago and they weren't fulfilled. 287, 274 and I think, but not sure 264 to 258. That might have been a personal one, not a Hurst one.
. I'll post various projections tonight.
Added another call at SPY 304.75 equivalent.~d eom
Have not added yet, watching to see how this retest is handled.~d eom
You too, Spartex. We all need to help each other. I didn't get much help and it took me several years more than it should to learn what I needed.
~d
Went long 305 call at 305.50, in the hole over a buck right now, looking to add here.
Very risky trade.
As I said to Rome, it hurts, but you made a profit and will live to trade another day.
Options trading is the hardest in the business. I traded for so long unprofitably that my friends were starting to shake their heads every time they looked at me.
How long have you been trading?
~D
You may be right. Calls basing here, but not much folks selling their deep in the money puts, either.
~d
Yes, it hurts. Been there, done that, many times. Take a deep breadth, let it all flow out and then study what you could have done better.
I publicly predicted the black swan event in March two months earlier in January (on T witter), positioned myself with puts, then closed out at 275 and tried to go long multiple times.
That's how we learn, unfortunately.
I really need to study your system again. It's deceptively simple and I keep forgetting it. Will do so tonight.
~d
Thanks, Fitzwell. Buying started around 12:25, may be some rally here intraday.~d
The dead cat bounce on this may be as fast and severe as the current decline.~d
fitzell,
No, I lost my conviction two days before the decline. I posted it just now.
This has happened several times before, and I have closed out only to lose a fortune in potential profits and also, real losses from averaging down my position. That is why I made a quick 180 degree turn when I got ready to close out.
As I said, I have a tendency to build a position about 3 weeks too early and I actually bought a notebook and am studying what I am doing wrong.
I also have a tendency to leave profits on the table. Yes, cash is a position, but it's not fun to make 100 bucks when you could have made a thousand.
Or public executions.~d eom
Bingo.~d eom
I posted several times that one of the clues to failure of the rally was SVXY struggling to keep up (in a real rally, it surges ahead). However, I have to tell on myself. I posted on another board that we are on a 3 of 3 on Monday and that negative divergences don't work in 3 of 3's. I was getting ready to sell a significant amount of puts at a great loss.
Then I realized what I just did, didn't close the puts, called in sick for FOMC day and waited.
Wonder if we hit your 34 ema target by tomorrow, Glen.~d eom
Added to CMG puts at 1020.~d eom
Looking to sell 1/2 my accumulated short position at SPY 300.~d eom
Trend change confirmed. Only will short appropriate retraces/highs going forward. Will begin building long positions as we reach support during June low.
If June low is weak, then will look to July low, which should be support for a short term tradable low.
~d
Edit: I do not use intraday charts less than 1 hour for trade setups, only for fine-tuning entries and exits.
I have 307 as some good support, but a lot of options players betting on 300 and under for SPY tomorrow. Don't know if they are buys or sells, of course.
I started seeing large increase in OI early in the week for tomorrow expiry.
The OI over 311 on the SPY looks very 'orderly'. Most likely selling calls, not buying for retrace.
Great call, Glen. Think we go under 316 tomorrow? My first real support is at 313 to 3ll.
TiA
~d
I decided to short CMG when Trump said it was everyone's God given responsibility to eat take out right now, lol.
Anyway, even if they're a cult restaurant right now, and had take out protected from CV down to a T (hey, that rhymes), how could they get the food out as fast as just slopping down on a tray for the customer in front of them? Look at Starbucks and how long the line is for drive by.
I think we may be in for a downside surprise with CMG's next earnings. In fact, I'm going to go to one next week and ask the person at the window if they're getting it out as fast as before.
Interesting article on MACD settings.
https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/daytraders-18978/
Edit: I already knew about the 8/17/9 version.
If this is a trend change I wonder if the market will rally during the night and decline further during the day, similar to what it did (although vice verse in direction) during the rally from March.
About ten minutes after I wrote this yesterday I realized I had caved in to the rally and it was time to short. Called in sick today and began shorting at around 1:30pm.
I've started monitoring and documenting in a nice new 5 subject book I purchased how much I post on boards per day, in what direction and how confident I am to walk away from a trade because I 'know' it will go in my direction.
I think it may just be a correction at this point, Nasaravi and we go to new highs. Of course, I could always be wrong and in addition even if I am right, it only may be a correction for a couple of days, or even one day.
However, I am hoping it's a trend change of several weeks because my analysis supports that right now.
I have been bearish since late May, about three weeks early. Not good for my p/l even if I am correct in the long run as I play options and time decay is a killer.