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I also support Sarmad and will hereby shelve my political rancor in favor of a walk on the beach. My investments appear to be safe for today anyway.
Aloha.
FOX who are nothing more than a propaganda rag.
Fair enough to call Fox a propaganda rag (particularly certain talk segments), but let's draw the line at calling CNN and CNBC 'fair and balanced'. The news producers of those two networks are equally slanted toward their political views.
I agree 100 percent with wbmw's orginal post. Oh except, I think he meant to switch the CNN acronym with FOXNews. He must have just been typing too fast.
chipguy, your best guess at the price of INTC 12-18 months from now would be what? Also let's assume that the market madness is over, so more or less a typical up and down market going forward.
Oh, other posters estimates welcome.
thanks for the those datapoints <eom>
Elmer, Pfizer is performing well today. Do you see their high payout ratio as a negative for starting a position at these prices? Or is there a price that you see as a good entry point? Or stay away completely and look for other healthcase/pharma stocks? All the standard disclaimers would be in affect for any advice you provide :->
OT: Is PFE considered best of breed in the world of big pharma? I don't follow this sector at all other than an occasional news story, but would be interested in your opinion on Pfizer vs. Merck vs. J&J.
GE is still a bit scary since they may still be involved in the current witch hunt.
I agree Intel in the low 20s in weeks is likely. I also think it is possible to see Intel at $16-17 in the same timeframe. My risk tolerance at this point in life is not what it was when I was 35 or even 45. I will be looking for a place to slowly reenter the market at some point over the next 6 to 9 months but it may not be back into Intel. Intel dominated my portfolio for years (and still does even after this sale) and like smooth20 did a month ago it is time for me to diversify. I only wish I did it at 24 or rather 25 or make that 27 or maybe 28.50. Wait make that 50. Nevermind let's just make it 71.
I've been a seller over the last two weeks, all international, emerging market, growth funds and gold fund (wish I'd kept that) were liquidated last week. Dumped half my intel at $19 this week. I would not be a buyer until we go below 10,000 on the dow. I believe that the desire to wring everyone out of the market possible (i.e. capitulation) will be achieved (an odd word here) once we get below 10K on the dow. When we see 9600-9800 or so, only then will the madness stop IMO.
I think Beamer will say that he is confident that McCain will win the election and knows that the country will rally behind him and that his economic policies will lead us into a new bull market in 09. Am I right wbmw?
Breaking down through $20 puts intel another leg down in my model. New range is $18-$22 over the next quarter. We will need good earnings and good guidance to get back to $22 by year end. A lower PE ratio has been assigned to intel in this bear market where a slowing of global growth will eventually affect revenues in intel. It has to since end user demand of computers certainly has a fairly high income elasticity of demand.
hilarious <eom>
We are near the bottom of this new trading range at around 20.25. INTC held this support last time, will it hold again or will we be visiting the teens?
It's not uncommon for an organization to run one configuration (i.e. W2K3, IIS, ASP.Net etc.) for the informational part of their web presense and then a completely different configuration for their operational components (trading etc.). So I would conclude too much from that info about what happened during the LSE meltdown.
Talk about a steller endorsement:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/amd-shares-upgraded-neutral-signs/story.aspx?guid=%7B5B4A8BB1%2D704F%2D4B52%2D8B78%2DE1B0F3B1E155%7D&siteid=yhoof
Analyst Sumit Dhanda upgraded AMD from sell, noting the struggling company's "improved cash generation" as well as a "pickup in business fundamentals."
Wait, I thought demand in APAC and EMEA was showing signs of slowing?
"While longer-term headwinds remain, we see several near-to-intermediate term catalysts," Dhanda told clients in a research note.
However, the analyst said AMD, which faces more intense competition from rival Intel Corp.
AMD continues to face hurdles over the longer run, noting: "Our enthusiasm for the stock remains tempered by a competitive backdrop that remains challenging."
Dhanda also said, "We view leadership on the product and/or the manufacturing roadmap front -- neither of which we believe to be imminent -- as a prerequisite for ownership of the stock."
In the software development world we try to follow the axiom 'never make small a slip'. If you're going to slip, slip by a large enough margin so you can almost 'guarantee' that you won't slip again. I have never understood why AMD doesn't follow such a philosophy in order to regain some credibility. Saying you're going to slip from late December to early January seems ridiculous (and meaningless) to me.
I thought the same thing when I bought Jan'09 27.50 calls back in Feb'08. In hind sight I should have dumped them and taken a 50% loss instead of the 90% loss I have now and will probably take right into the end of the year when the expire worthless.
Looks like it could hold now. I bought near the top of today's range and sold at just about the flat bottom of the day. Amazing how often I have done this. I guess I don't have the stomach for it.
So I was watching it closely today and was able to see where there were larger lots (larger than average) at various bid and ask prices. I used this information as another data point to help in determining where support might show up as the price fell. Having said that, I must also admit I am a novice at interrupting the actions of day traders that I am competing against when trading in this way. So I think the level II data is valuable but only in the hands of an experienced trader. I do recommend QuoteTracker (as others have) as a nice tool that provides a free level II feed and has a lot of nice features (all free).
Dumped the 10% long position. We aren't going to hold 20.20, I'd say the teens are in our future. If we fall below $20 then my new range will be 18-22 thru year end.
Bought back 10% long position at $20.50. But I won't stick around long if we head toward $20.
so about $20.25 is where current support should hold?
Agree 100%. $28 is a pipe dream. We could see it in 2010 if housing prices begin to appeciate (even a little). I'm looking for a high of $24 in Q4 and that will be a challenge. Needless to say my Jan'09 27.50 calls will expire near worthless.
Where does INTC go from here? Down 4.6% today on heavy volume, I guess it would wise to stay away until the dust settles.
Correction to earlier to post: I said sold 10% yesterday at 23.63 I meant 22.63. Wish I'd got 23.63 though. Price has been dropping so fast its hard to keep up.
INTC is too widely held and it is traded by institutions as a proxy for big cap technology, which means it is dumped when any panic about the future rears its ugly head. In a bear market like we are in, panic about the future is easily created. It only takes an article or two about global demand possibly slowing or channel checks showing inventories building etc. Fundamentals are ignored in this scenario. Who cares if one company is in a better competitive position than another if you think the dow could reach 10,000 before this thing is over (which I think it could).
I dumped 10% of my position in INTC yesterday at 23.63 the downside risk just looked scary. We are now a leg down from where we were in Q2-Q3 with a new range of $20-24 for the rest of the year, IMO. I will be selling another 10% should we get back to $23-24 before year end.
ugly, ugly performance for a stock supposedly on its best fundamental footing in years. it would seem that we go lower from here next week, easily back to my prediction of $22.50 (before $25), just wish I was making some money (instead of losing) on this move.
Yes I really wanted to be watching the Level II when those posts came out but alas I'm not working from home today and had to keep my nose to the grindstone.
but why do they do it?
I remember that bear market call in Nov 07. At the time I thought you were nuts. Wished I'd paid more attention now.
re: Yeah, Yeah, Yeah
When listing too many yeahs in one sentence you are artificially oversupplying the market with yeahs when you could be charging more money for each yeah. You could cleary increase the price of each yeah and increase GMs and the value to shareholders.
For what it's worth I think there is a good chance of dropping thru $23 and getting a buyer for your puts. I have to continually remind myself not to worry about getting burned by INTC on upward price movements. It just won't happen, if you are patient you will always get another chance at a lower price to either cover a short or buy back in.
Down a buck since I covered my short position. I should have continued to hold this hedge as IDF is a big yawn to the market as it has been in the past. Another bad trade decision it appears.
Covered my short position at 24.29 taking a 30cent/share loss on this trade. Probably won't matter but I didn't want to be short going into IDF. Would love to see $25 sometime next week but I won't get my hopes up.
I especially like this: 'while dual and tri cores should do well for most people.'
Most people that enjoy hotter and poorer performing parts that is.
Tried to close out my short position at 23.70 this morning but didn't make it. Market seems to be turning around. I'd rather not be holding my short position going into IDF next week in case some announcement moves the stock.
The book that I am reading suggests that the size (# of shares) of the outside ask and bid prices can affect your decision on very short term price trends. But I'm just reading the book, that's why I wanted the Level II data, to find out if I can make any sense of it myself.
QuoteTracker was the answer. Installed it last night and wired it up to my ETrade account for the real time feed. I have been watching the Level II screens this morning for INTC. This product has most of what I was looking for (and it's free!), thanks to mmoy and elmer for their suggestions.
no I'm not talking about any kind of automated trading strategy or automated trading algorithms etc. Just software that provides a Level II data feed that displays in a good UI what the market makers are asking and bidding and in what quantities and that also allows you to make trades both in simulated mode and in real mode. So here is an example of such:
http://www.tradingsimulation.com/tsimplus/
I have no idea if this software is worth anything or not. And I would also be interested to know if you really think this kind of software could be exploitive. Although in this case I think the data feed comes from your own service (but I guess it could still be delayed in the application). Man the things you have to worry about when money is involved!