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APWC--Got a boost and some volume today from a PR that announced:
1) $62 million of revs over two years in recent contracts
2) they started trading Friday on the real "global markets" NASDAQ vs. "capital markets".
3) strong 2012 results for their Thai 51% owned subsidiary
4) an expectation that their own 2012 results would be reported in April
5) bullish but vague guidance and a commitment they will more actively promote this stock this year
All in all, a good PR with some meat. As they have been very "PR negligent", it'e encouraging they put out a wideranging PR. Not sure how much the NASDAQ "uplist" matters, but it could allow some institutional investors to give them more active consideration.
LIWA--Thanks SSKILLZ. Appreciate your analysis and insight.
LIWA--SKILLZ, although I'm guessing you wouldn't want to be seen showing enthusiasm for a Chinese stock, would you be willing to comment on LIWA in terms of its technicals? I'm asking because, while I know nothing about technicals, it seems like LIWA's trading action has improved a lot in the last few months. I was also encouraged yesterday after their strong premarket earnings release that the SP recovered in the afternoon after what looked like "sell on the news" action in the morning. If you're willing to comment, you could always preface with: "While I would never touch LIWA with a ten foot pole..."
LIWA--Closed at $5.32 vs. cash at 12/31 of $4.82 with no debt. Trading at forward PE of 2.5X based on upper end of 2013 guidance (which they have always beaten in the past). All of their IR is as professional as I have seen for a smaller Chinese company.They have also completed their production expansions to date on budget and on schedule, so they appear to be very well managed with strong financial oversight. They seem to be doing everything they can, despite all the suspicions around Chinese companies, to prove they're a legitimate company that deserves a reasonable valuation including continuing to speak at US conferences when many others have quit.
I think there's a good chance they'll either succeed in driving up the PE or ultimately get frustrated and go private/relist. Given the founder/CEO's large stake, the company's cash position and its current valuation, a going private should be very possible--and at a valuation much higher than the current price. Either way, I think there's significant upside here over the course of 2013.
LIWA--Closed at $5.32 vs. cash at 12/31 of $4.82 with no debt. Trading at forward PE of 2.5X based on upper end of 2013 guidance (which they have always beaten in the past). All of their IR is as professional as I have seen for a smaller Chinese company. They seem to be doing everything they can, despite all the suspicions around Chinese companies, to prove they're legitimate including continuing to speak at US conferences when many others have quit. They seemed determined to prove they're a real company that deserves a reasonable valuation. I think there's a good chance they'll either succeed or ultimately get frustrated and go private/relist. Given the founder/CEO's large stake, the company's cash position and it's current valuation, a going private should be very possible--and at a valuation much higher than the current price. Either way, I think there's significant upside here over the course of 2013.
YONG--Bought more at $5.30 which would be 25% gain at $6.50 buyout price. I think the delay could be around whether the price will be increased which would be even better.
YONG--Long and strong but (judging from price action)might be wrong! Any news I'm missing?
LLEN--Would love to know who was dumping all those shares today at just over a 1 forward PE after an excellent quarter with bullish guidance. Are they weak hands or do they know something important?
LLEN--Really on a good growth and earnings track now. See strong sequential quarter summary below. Balance sheet very solid also. Coal isn't the most "forward looking" commodity, but they aren't shy about using it in China. Forward PE less than 1.5 so plenty of room to run if investors can get past lingering fraud concerns. Even though they have a crummy auditor, I don't think they're a fraud. I'm guessing they've been investigated pretty thoroughly by the short sellers.
L&L Energy Announces Third Quarter Financial Results - Record Production and Earnings
Conference call scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, March 12, 2013
SEATTLE, March 11, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --L & L Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: "LLEN") ("L&L" or "Company"), a Seattle-based company with a track record of profitable coal operations in China, announced its financial results for its third quarter of fiscal 2013, ended January 31, 2013.
Third Quarter Highlights:
•In November 2012, L&L acquired the Luozhou and Lashu Coal Mines in Guizhou adding 34.2 million tons of reserves and, when fully expanded, 750,000 tons of annual production.
•Coal mining production increased 253% year over year to 233,000 tons in the third quarter of fiscal 2013 from 66,000 in the same quarter last year. Quarter over quarter production increased 26% from 185,000 tons in the second quarter.
•Revenues increased 98% year-over-year to $59.8 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2013 from $30.2 million in the same quarter last year. On a quarter over quarter basis, revenues increased 9% from $54.9 million last quarter.
•Net income attributable to L&L increased 300% year-over-year to $15.6 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2013 from $3.9 million last year and increased quarter over quarter 103% from $7.7 million last quarter.
•Earnings per share for the quarter was $0.42 , an increase of 282% from $0.11 during the same period last year and an increase of 100% quarter over quarter.
Trailing Four Quarter Highlights:
Mining
Production
Net Income Attributable
to L&L
Earnings Per
Share
Q3 FY2013
233,000 tons
$15.6 million
$0.42
Q2 FY2013
185,000 tons
$7.7 million
$0.21
Q1 FY2013
149,000 tons
$6.2 million
$0.17
Q4 FY2012
108,000 tons
$4.2 million
$0.12
Q3 FY2012
66,000 tons
$3.9 million
$0.11
"Our third quarter results show five quarters of consecutive growth," commented Ian Robinson, Chief Financial Officer of L&L. "This quarter's strong earnings were bolstered by our two newly acquire mines, Luozhou and Lashu, ramping up their production ahead of schedule. The two new mines have reached their approved capacities and with all our mines fully operational, we were able to surpass our record earnings and production numbers from last quarter."
Mr. Robinson continued saying, "Our wholesale segment also recorded solid growth this quarter as L&L increased shipments to Datang Power under the previously increased contract, signed in October 2012."
L&L's Vice President and Director Clayton Fong summarized, "Last quarter, the five mines we currently own produced at an annual rate of 900,000 tons. Organically they are targeted to grow 100% between now and 2015. We also expect significant growth in our wholesale and washing operations in the next few years. That growth could increase even higher with a few additional acquisitions. We continue to look at opportunities in Guizhou province and have begun looking at even larger mines in Sanxi and Inner Mongolia. With our business running well, I am very pleased how well positioned we are. The future is bright. "
XIN--Nasty haircut today. So far have lost more than half my gains.
SSKILLSZ1--Any comment on why markets are flirting with new highs but most participants are negative in the contest? Has a correction begun for microcaps?
XIN--Announced strong sequential and YOY numbers. Guidance lower for 2013 than 2012 but stock surging nonetheless. Valued modestly evening at 2013 guidance so room for further appreciation IMO.
APWC--High volume today. Someone may have finally noticed that their publicly traded 51% owned Thai sub, Charoong Thai (symbol:CTW on Thailand exchange) has been on a tear recently to hit a new high over 17 on huge volume. APWC's share of CTW's market cap equates to over $8 per APWC share compared to its current $4.15 price. Buyers of CTW can get it so much cheaper by buying APWC and get APWC's operations in China, Singapore and Australia as a bonus. These other operations have traditionally accounted for 40% + of APWC's revenues. CTW will announce Q4 earnings by the end of February which, because they're consolidated into APWC's financials, will give very good visibility into APWC's Q4 results. Based on the way CTW has been trading,the whispers must be that the numbers are good.
APWC--High volume today. Someone may have finally noticed that their publicly traded 51% owned Thai sub, Charoong Thai (symbol:CTW on Thailand exchange) has been on a tear recently to hit a new high over 17 on huge volume. APWC's share of CTW's market cap equates to over $8 per APWC share compared to its current $4.15 price. Buyers of CTW can get it so much cheaper by buying APWC and get APWC's operations in China, Singapore and Australia as a bonus. These other operations have traditionally accounted for 40% + of APWC's revenues. CTW will announce Q4 earnings by the end of February which, because they're consolidated into APWC's financials, will give very good visibility into APWC's Q4 results. Based on the way CTW has been trading,the whispers must be that the numbers are good.
APWC--High volume today. Someone may have finally noticed that their publicly traded 51% owned Thai sub, Charoong Thai (symbol:CTW on Thailand exchange) has been on a tear recently to hit a new high over 17 on huge volume. APWC's share of CTW's market cap equates to over $8 per APWC share compared to its current $4.15 price. Buyers of CTW can get it so much cheaper by buying APWC and get APWC's operations in China, Singapore and Australia as a bonus. These other operations have traditionally accounted for 40% + of APWC's revenues. CTW will announce Q4 earnings by the end of February which, because they're consolidated into APWC's financials, will give very good visibility into APWC's Q4 results. Based on the way CTW has been trading,the whispers must be that the numbers are good.
YONG--I think that language is standard. Of course, I don't know what's going on behind the scenes, but bank financing was recently secured, and it seems on track. It reminds me of HRBN where there were accusations of fraud, but the same big hedge fund participated in the going private. All these big players who are long could be wrong and getting played, but I doubt it.
YONG--I added to my YONG position. Buyout price of 6.60 still 20% premium over 5.50 current price. They have Morgan Stanley, a huge hedge fund and major Chinese bank committed to transaction. Morgan Stanley has been long time investor so they have had opportunity to detect any material fraud. I think deal will close in the next few months absent a global meltdown. A 20% return in a few months is a high annualized return--especially in a toppy market.
YONG--I added to my YONG position. Buyout price of 6.60 still 20% premium over 5.50 current price. They have Morgan Stanley, a huge hedge fund and major Chinese bank committed to transaction. Morgan Stanley has been long time investor so they have had opportunity to detect any material fraud. I think deal will close in the next few months absent a global meltdown. A 20% return in a few months is a high annualized return--especially in a toppy market.
LIWA--I already have it in my sister's account. It has been trading so well recently, I bought some August calls. It seems like the "rally killing" persistent seller has been absent recently, so hopefully he doesn't come back. Their performance, execution, IR and balance sheet are all top rate. They don't have a great auditor which increases scam risk, but they have built out (and continue to build out) significant and expensive smelting capacity which for me bolsters the argument they're "real".
LIWA--I already have it in my sister's account. It has been trading so well recently, I bought some August calls. It seems like the "rally killing" persistent seller has been absent recently, so hopefully he doesn't come back. Their performance, execution, IR and balance sheet are all top rate. They don't have a great auditor which increases scam risk, but they have built out (and continue to build out) significant and expensive smelting capacity which for me bolsters the argument they're "real".
APWC--Hello all. Haven't posted here in a long time. While I'm sure most of you have been actively managing your portfolios, APWC is still my largest position which I began building in 2005. Good to see volume surging in past few weeks. Hopefully not all company purchases per buyback program. I doubt company would drive the price up so aggressively so there must be other interest as well. APWC owns a 51% interest in Charoong Thai, a Thai wire company that's publicly traded on the Thai stock exchange (symbol: CTW). CTW's share price and volume have also surged recently such that APWC's 51% interest in its market cap equates to $5.70 per APWC share. This is still substantially below APWC's 52 week high of $4.30 today--and you get APWC's operations in China, Singapore and Australia in addition to their CTW interest. It's also interesting to compare the Q3 quarterly numbers for CTW and APWC. CTW's were off the charts but, even though they are consolidated on APWC's financials, APWC recognized lower revenues and earnings from CTW for Q3 as different accounting conventions most likely required APWC to defer recognition of some of the revenues. The point here is that there should be significant "imbedded" revenues from CTW (which they already reported for Q3) which APWC should recognize in Q4--in addition to the "current" Q4 revenues. Q4 should be a monster quarter. Also, APWC is opening a new higher margin wire factory in China in Q1 which, while not driving revenues dramatically, could still materially boost earnings. Finally, the balance sheet is very strong with a book value of over $11 per share and $6.34 per share in cash and equivalents compared to $3.94 per share in debt. Now that this stock is getting some notice/volume, it should be poised for a great run in 2013.
APWC--Good to see volume spiking in past few weeks as this is my largest position. Hopefully not all company purchases per buyback program. I doubt company would drive the price up so aggressively so there must be other interest as well. APWC owns a 51% interest in Charoong Thai, a Thai wire company that's publicly traded on the Thai stock exchange (symbol: CTW). CTW's share price and volume have also surged recently such that APWC's 51% interest in its market cap equates to $5.70 per APWC share. This is still substantially below APWC's 52 week high of $4.30 today--and you get APWC's operations in China, Singapore and Australia in addition to their CTW interest. It's also interesting to compare the Q3 quarterly numbers for CTW and APWC. CTW's were off the charts but, even though they are consolidated on APWC's financials, APWC recognized lower revenues and earnings from CTW for Q3 as different accounting conventions most likely required APWC to defer recognition of some of the revenues. The point here is that there should be significant "imbedded" revenues from CTW (which they already reported for Q3) which APWC should recognize in Q4--in addition to the "current" Q4 revenues. Q4 should be a monster quarter. Also, APWC is opening a new higher margin wire factory in China in Q1 which, while not driving revenues dramatically, could still materially boost earnings. Finally, the balance sheet is very strong with a book value of over $11 per share and $6.34 per share in cash and equivalents compared to $3.94 per share in debt. Now that this stock is getting some notice/volume, it should be poised for a great run in 2013.
APWC--Breaking out today after increasing recent volume.
LPH--Red Chip jumping ship immediately is telling. They have been associated with the company long enough to be a good position to know whether there is any credible rebuttal to GEO. Also, they probably talked to management about the charges and apparently didn't hear anything that seemed compelling. I think Red Chip's prior knowledge of the fraud should be investigated. Either they knew something smelled or they were recklessly negligent in their DD. Essentially, they lend their name to a fraud and get paid until it blows up, then wash their hands and walk away with no consequences while investors take a bath. They should be held accountable in addition to LPH management and Board. For the record, I otherwise have no axe to grind with Red Chip. It just seems a little too easy for them to disappear into the night.
TRIT flying. Any news? Can't find it.
APWC--Announced commencement of previously announced share buyback program yesterday and stock popped on decent volume. Their Q3 numbers will be reported in the next week or so. Their 51% owned publicly traded Thai subsidiary, Charoong Thai, has already reported Q3 of which APWC's share amounts to .21 per APWC share for the quarter. Depending on the results of other operations in China, Singapore and Australia (and absent any non recurring expenses like bad receivables, write down of inventory etc.),they should report a very good quarter. They're also schedule to begin production in Q1 at a newly constructed factory in China for a higher margin wire product which could add approximately .05 in quarterly earnings at full capacity. Finally, management has suggested they would consider a dividend at some point. With $4.83 per share in cash, very little debt and increasing cash flow, they could easily pay .30-.40 annual dividend on their 13.8 million shares.
Given all these factors and the stock trading at $3.37, I think it's poised for a good run. For the record, it's my largest holding which I've held for a long time.
GURE--Really tanking lately when some other CGS are bouncing. Is $1.10 a good entry point for a trade?
LIWA--looks like the cash per share currently equals the price per share. LIWA has been among the most professional in terms IR disclosure, meeting guidance and executing expansion plans on schedule. Nonetheless, the rallys in the stock always seem to peter out--including today. It seems like there's some big seller lurking in the background always selling into good news.
LLEN has given up most of recent gains. Just a technical retrace or more of a bad sign?
TSTC--Former Board favorite, up 100% in 3 days on massive volume and not a single post? Any insights as to the reason for the spike?
ADY--Pretty scathing short attack yesterday. Joe, are you still a holder? Any thoughts?
TSTC--Reason for spike last two days?
CHC--Given the power struggle between management and its shareholders including litigation in federal court, I don't think this stock is a good candidate for technical analysis. It may be a great investment, but I don't think technicals will drive the stock.
CHRM--Tanking on high volume yesterday and today. Anyone know the reason?
APWC--They will post their 2nd Q numbers prior to their Oct 5th Annual Meeting. Interestingly, their 53% owned sub in Thailand, publicly traded Charoong Thai, announced their 2nd Q numbers in mid August which will contribute approx .29 per share to APWC's 2nd Q earnings. Although it isn't clear how the operations in China, Singapore and Australia will do, .29 from Thailand is a great foundation for a strong Q. The weakening price of copper may hurt results a little as it is embedded in their own product pricing and revenues (or could prompt a write down of their copper inventory). Nonetheless, it should be a strong Q that could spark the share price.
In the near term, they're completing a factory in China for a higher margin wire product which should begin production in the next few months. These higher margin revenues should materially boost earnings.
Sskillz--Why is Mr. Sheep doing so poorly?
AQ.V--Anybody follow this African exploration company?
APWC--Has been rallying lately and up 8% today. Probably benefiting from the general CGS recovery as well as the recent strength of copper.
GURE--Any comments on their recent $10 million acquisition of production assets? The market didn't seem to like it much. Was it an affiliated transaction?
Is it my imagination or has there been more mindless pumping on this board recently?