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It’s all relative. All in is all in. I have invested knowing if this doesn’t work out my lifestyle will not change. If it does, well it will be a bit more extravagant. I am a logical person and the science is too good even if cancer flops. Can’t see holding the bag here. Worst case is we all get our money back plus a paltry sum. A just have a really good vibe about where this is headed once the TO is over and we have enough $ to run in for the next year through BLA and FDA Combo approval.
That’s a major play. Must mean your in for about 1.5m shares. I’m in for a total of just over 500k shares and that’s enough for me. I share your sentiments. A tad bit nervous but I too believe we get a nice pay day. We better it’s been a long haul.
Depends on where your warrants are being held. I had to have both Paulsons and Craig Eastwood’s help to have them extracted from RBC and delivered directly to Cytodyn.
RBC is a total S%#t show.
The deadline is June 12. Call Cytodyn and ask for Craig Eastwood. He is handling the TO. He is a new hire and quite sharp. I am now warrant free. Couldn’t resist exercising 80k warrants for $32k in return for 120k shares. A no brainer as my DD tells me the worst and I mean worst case is we are out at $2-$3 share. My expectation is North of $5 and way North if TNBC mimics the mouse models.
No bag holding here A17. We are all going to make $. Only question is how long it will take and how much. It would be a breath of fresh air to see you turn bullish. What will it take for that to happen?
Not a chance.
Yes. I have some .75’s and some 1.35’s. Converting all for another 120k shares. I’m at my limit in terms of shares. As good as this looks no more exposure for me.
No question. The financing elephant in the room is finally being taken out although Nader still needs to prove he can deliver by inking a couple of these licensing deals that he so confidently outlined.
As much as some investors don’t like or understand the logic of the timing behind the TO with so many potential deals in the pipeline it made perfect sense to me. With the TO likely being able to support our 2019 burn Nader’s bargaining power increased dramatically. Time to get down to the serious business at hand, hence Dr. Rae.
Yes that’s what I conclude also. We all know what’s going to happen when a couple of these licensing opportunities hit and we have sufficient $ — The big dogs are going to step up.
The real tell will be if the SP moves up in spite of the TO.
Warrant days are over so the overhang will be fading and with the pipeline chalked full of positive milestones who in their right mind would be selling instead of accumulating?
The question is how much $ will the TO bring in and how much upfront cash will come in this year in licensing deals. Together I’m conservatively speculating well over $50M.
Is the China deal for real? $20-$30M upfront will get the ball moving. We are an eyelash away from creating some serious momentum.
Although none of the updates can be PR’d the confidence and tone was inspiring. My takeaway is we are on BP’s radar and our progress is being closely monitored. The science is simply mind boggling.
I understand your logic and agenda Trding. Agreed.
Bottom line is the short term SP is not going to dictate our future once we have $40M plus in the bank. I actually see a lot of twists and turns that are going to support the current SP even with the TO.
IMO the TO is being timed in conjunction with the Prostagene deal w NSTG. If Nader announces they are closing a deal for $15M-$20M up front that will induce more warrant holders to convert. $56M is the total raise if all warrant holders convert. We know that’s not going to happen although the likelihood of raising $40M plus between Nanostring and the TO is a conservative outcome.
$40M plus is F#%kU money. That means BP has to get real if they want a piece of Leronlimab’s future because we are funded through to major milestones and the clock is ticking for real. In addition the pathway for an organic uplist is revealing itself. Meanwhile the current SP is masquerading as a desperate picture while the reality is the perfect storm is being set into motion.
The wall is going to come tumbling down as the warrants dry up with no deals to replenish the rinse and repeat game.
Trding, your a smart guy.
I know math and all I know is I get three shares for 80 cents. I’ve got 80k warrants left and it’s going to cost me $32k to convert and the result is 120K shares. The SP would have to drop to 26.7 cents to get the same price. What else matters?
Makes sense. 42k shares at a cost of $11,200. 26.67 cents per share. Appears to be a bargain while raising much needed $.
We will have to wait and see what the real impact this will have on the current SP. Positive news would certainly help stabilize the SP during this offer.
I’m most anxious to see the level of participation and how long this offer remains open.
If not successful the pressure to make a deal will escalate once again. Will the hiring of Dr. Rae prove Naders incompetency by delivering?
Lawman, you have to be somewhat pleased.
Lots of balls in the air.
Fair enough. I’m there also but at this price it’s a go. I’m sure there are many in the same position that will opt out because their exposure is at a threshold. The truth will be told by how many warrants are exercised when this offer is completed.
The fact that major BOD investors opted in makes a statement.
This was telegraphed when offered to the BOD on May 8. It is a tell that Nader has no relevant deal with upfront payments presently.
So the max that can be raised if all 142M Warrants were to be exercised is $56.4M at a cost of 213M shares. That means those warrant holders that opt in will be paying 26.67 cents per share. That is a 45% discount on the current 46 cent SP.
We all know the obvious questions. How many Warrants will actually be exercised and what impact will the offer ultimately have on the current SP? The upside is $50M plus in the bank means we are in a position to ramp up trials and BLA and get to end game. Could set up nicely for an organic uplist providing clinical data is as expected.
If one believes this molecule is worth more than $300M taking the offer is a no brainer. It is very difficult for me to envision this not being worth at least $1-$2B minimum and very likely much more. How can Warrant holders resist this offer? Only way is inability to come up with the cash or zero belief.
Yes, that is where we are. The all important TNBC results. Nader held true to form with the delay, par for the course. No surprise.
I understand their are complications, but he always fails to deliver and does such a poor job of communicating it erodes investor confidence. The SP is a direct reflection of Naders inability to raise money away from the Paulson conundrum and make good on any timeline. The proof was the impact of the offering to board members to exercise warrants at .40 with a 1/2 share kicker. SP moved up 20%. That worked out to a 26 cent SP for those opportunistic insiders. That’s not a great deal for maintaining shareholder equity but any raising of money outside of the warrant backed Paulson raises is received quite positively by the market because it doesn’t involve warrants. Warrants = Poison period. You get fed enough of it and you die. Paulson realizes they could kill their own goose if this continues. The goose is both their investors and Leronlimab. So the urgency to cut a deal is escalating and will continue until achieved. It would not surprise me if Nader was replaced in that capacity.
What would happen to the SP with an upfront payment of $50M with a reasonable licensing deal? Add on positive interim TNBC results and you’ve got the makings of an organic uplist. Those two events coming to fruition are not that far fetched although $25M upfront is more realistic.
So I agree Plavac 2H 2019 has much promise. For the moment It’s reminiscent of Bill Murray in Ground Hogs day as everyday is a repeat of the previous.
Yes, No S—t.
Very logical post jacobs. You bring up some options that are most likely being considered. The SP would make one believe these are the worst of times when in fact they are actually transitioning to the best of times.
I respect and understand your opinion. What I can tell you is everybody has different economic situations. Also not everyone is driven by $ or the adrenaline to go all in. Although it appears as a lack of confidence I personally don’t think that is the case.
Yes Suvorov “end of subject”. The fact is you and Penny are both right. Nader has his reasons for not buying stock that make perfect sense. And yes it doesn’t paint the prettiest picture when he doesn’t step up. Bottom line is Nader has more in the game than anyone- his entire life is invested. If you were close enough to this story you’d get off your rant and talk about something else. I don’t have a problem with people being critical of Nader’s competence, but don’t question his commitment to this investment. He’s got 4.1M options and has decided that’s enough.
It could be their back up
plan is to use the additional 100M shares to raise money with this type of offering to SH’s. 100M shares converts 66M warrants while raising $26.66M. Not the best way to raise money but I’d take it over Paulson and more warrants. Options are important when negotiating with the current SP.
That’s the number I came up with, a little over 26 cents per share. I’m exercising all my warrants if given the opportunity.
They obviously were only interested in raising a quick $3M as it is clear they are carefully plodding along with small raises. They could throw this out to shareholders in a month or so if they need another chunk as a back up to having to do another Paulson raise. At least it clears out warrants while raising money.
Milestones are near as are licensing deals. Dilemma is a low SP to negotiate a deal and their unwillingness to lower the bar. IMO they are trying to make it to TNBC data, P3 Mono protocol, and BLA completion while sacrificing the least amount of equity.
BOD and management are very confident in the the strength of this molecule and what is highly probable to transpire in the second half of this year. If TNBC comes back mimicking the mouse models it’s going to be a helluva ride. If not Mono is still our ace in the hole. With both BP is going to come calling sooner than with just Mono.
The conundrum is money. That is the commodity that is standing between where we are now and the goal line. Quite the chess game going on and I’m feeling very bullish about our position.
If they offered that deal to me I’d exercise my warrants. They are raising much needed money and cleaning up the market cap. Let’s clean up a bigger chunk and raise more money by opening the door to their loyal shareholders.
BH, All I can say is the BOD is aware of Nader’s strengths and weaknesses. On one hand he understands the molecule better from an HIV application than anyone. On the other hand his grammar doesn’t showcase his knowledge. No secrets here. Finding someone that can do a better job is not as simple as it may appear. Pestell talks the Cancer play well, but he openly admits Nader has superior knowledge and understanding on HIV. We also can not deny his effectiveness dealing with the FDA. I think we may see some changes sooner than one might expect.
The SP is indicative of the hold Paulson has on the SP. it’s only a matter of time before this dilemma is resolved. Too many great things in the pipeline with TNBC and HIV Mono. BP just needs more data and this will flip fast. Science is going to trump everything as Cytodyn is on the radar. Foundation continues to broaden with 700 patients and no SAE’s. Only the tip of the iceberg has been revealed with insane potential. If the Phase 2 TNBC goes as Pestell expects it’s going to attract all the big boys attention.
I think we will be singing a different tune later this year.
It’s time for the BOD to get a push.
That pathway is much longer and riskier. I think Nader is thinking he can commercialize this on his own and bypass BP and that is where I disagree. He can’t raise enough money to fulfill his short term promises much less commercialize. He also lacks the experience and skill set. Talk about uncharted waters.
I understand Pestell’s agenda with his Cancer Baby. His best pathway is to go for the buyout on HIV and go with the buyout company and develop his passion. We will get a higher value on the buyout and Pestell will get all kinds of incentives. Trying to go it alone is a mistake IMO. If Nader comes through with $100M upfront I’ll change my tune. We are being stymied because of financing, meanwhile the clock is ticking.
Understand Nader knows how to tell shareholders what they want to hear. Take a look at the reality of his pathway without $. Future Paulson raises are drying up while choking the SP.
It’s time to get real and that means clarity in terms of the pathway Nader is pitching and the reality of accomplishing the extreme valuations he is tossing around. BP is laughing at his expectations because we are basing valuations on mice models.
No money no progress. Big talking, big expectations. Nader needs to deliver and now.
Couldn’t agree more IndexGuy. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.
Leronlimab is safe, scalable, very effective, and marketable. Now get it over the hump with the trials so we can get the company sold.
If Nader can’t get the licensing deals done he needs to move over and let Pestell get it done. I hope that is more or less what is going on right now as Nader is proving he’s not capable.
The first half of 2019 has been stagnant because of insufficient funds to advance the science. How much longer can we wait for Nader to deliver?
Fortunately my first move into CYDY was in 2013. I’m very bullish, however reading posts on IHUB would have one believe we are on our last gasp of oxygen. Interesting that those with the least amount of skin in the game have the most to say and appear to be the most bearish.
Yeah, I guess the 4.1m shares and 600k year isn’t cutting the mustard. On the other hand If he pulls this off it will be chicken feed.
“My question is this: will a PR about financing necessarily move the SP significantly?”
That will depend on the significance of the deal(s). IMO the significance hinges on the size of the upfront payments and at what cost. We need a chunk to expedite the BLA, TNBC, and Mono Trials. $50M upfront is the number that would radically change the landscape.
I too am tempering my expectations to be South of that number. My speculation is that Nader is grinding to get as much as possible in upfront payments at a price that represents a substantial economic improvement over Paulson. If that can’t be achieved he will continue with the same old familiar faces.
He knows how important it is to get this done because of the alternative. Talk about being on the hot seat, the temp has gone way up. But that’s why he gets paid the big $, right.
Yes, but only if you have the balls to be very pointed, persistent and firm on your concerns. Nader brings a lot of confidence and arrogance in those situations. He’s ready for the obvious and will blow off anything he perceives to be negative. That’s his MO like it or not.
As for the white elephant in the room, negotiations are on. No question. Are the terms good enough for the BOD to accept? That is the question. Any opinion coming from this board is pure speculation. The current silence can mean this is the best of times or the worst of times. Only Nader and the board know the answer to that million $ ?
We shall all know soon enough.
I know nothing about cannabis stocks but they are worthless IMO.
Yes Tick Tock.
Gild has passed on Combo and that makes logical sense. Regardless of the safety profile and efficacy as a Combo option they will not pay for Leronlimab to substitute or add to their current drugs. They will pay however if they pass on Mono. I spoke w Tony C about this and Mono is a horse of a different color. Obviously Gild is willing to wait this out for now, but they are watching closely.
Once approval for Combo is completed and the Pivotal Mono is in progress and interim confirms what everyone already knows at the 525-700m dosage Gild will have a difficult decision to make. And this is excluding the potential value in the Cancer space. Personally I don’t think Gild will be our end game but their ego will pay. There are other companies interested right now because they see the writing on the wall. This is the process we are in right now.
You and Suvorov and the likes are convinced that nobody is interested in Leronlimab. Why would Samsung, a major manufacturer be willing to front a $Billion in product? Do you think they might know a bit more about what is actually going on behind the scenes than you or anyone on this board?
I’m reading the tea leaves much differently than you and the little pack of trumpeting nay sayers.
They will. You just don’t believe they will. That the difference.
This once was a confluence where a wealth of information, bullish or bearish, was shared factually and respectfully.
Nothing has changed with this investment other than an increased probability of success. What has changed for the most part is the culture of this board from fact based and informative to manipulative and egocentric. This little group (no secret who I’m speaking of) have overwhelmed this site with so much negativity that they are on their way to having each other with no audience. That’s the basic law of attraction.
LM, you are clearly a very secure person. Your response was priceless.
This you are wrong about Suvorov. Paulson wants to get out of the way for its own investors. If your basing your investing strategy on the continuation of the Paulson raises until the well runs dry your mistaken. Your thesis that all of the potential partners are going to freeze CYDY out so that the science can be scraped up for a paltry price is like a piece of Swiss cheese.