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I don't think they'll have a loss in Q3.
I believe revenue will be up to around 900k in Q3 (July wasn't down too much from Q2's worst month, August is already looking as strong as Q2's best month, and September is usually way up from August), give or take 100k (wide variance since only 1 month of data to go on), and costs will be down due to the website platform changeovers being done.
Inventory buildup might indeed make expenses higher, but at most that will counteract the one-time charges from Q2, so I think the added revenue will be enough to get them to at least break even, if not a slight profit.
Just my opinion based on partial analysis of a partial quarter so far. I will change it as more data come in and I have more time to think and analyze.
I think your estimate of several years to get a lactose supplement out is extremely inaccurate. I would be surprised if it takes more than a year from now.
The problem is that when the CEO states what he hopes and wishes will happen, some people take that to be a promise. He has actually made a lot fewer real promises than people realize.
I like your post overall. I just need to comment on this part:
It will take many months to even get the lactose product ready. There are a lot of details to be worked out with any new product, such as name, label design, price to charge, what form it shold take, testing, etc.
Realistically, I don't expect that product to be out until winter, at earliest.
I knew THAT. I was just wondering WHAT later date, or if anyone wanted to hazard a guess as to when.
A little DD might help avoid making mistakes, such as:
It's not an ad, it's a story. The folks at Fox Business will be making it.
They shouldn't need to spend any money on it, just some time to prep.
So now that we're current, and Q2 results are out, can we expect to hear about that TV spot on the show "Built In America" on Fox, that got delayed from June to who-knows-when?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=87479570
Did they say it would be done around Labor Day?
Why am I getting a strange sense of deja vu? It's as if we've had this discussion before.
Current!!
Let us sing and rejoice!
Hallelujah!!
Hallelujah!!
Hallelujah!! Hallelujah!!
Halle-ay-lujah!!
We no longer have to listen to all the griping about going current!!!
Please tell me how to get "entertainment" out of an income statement. I seem to be missing out on all the fun, because I can't see the entertainment that so many others are seeing.
And the actuals:
Actuals.............Jammin says: ........Nabbbss says:............Stockhero believes:
OL: $388k........OL: $395k............... OL: $428k.....................OL:$511k
WOL: $160k......WOL: $175k..............WOL: $158k....................WOL:$194k
Melrs: $78k.......Melrose: $95k.......Melrose: $90k.................Melrose:$85k
Rbrtsn: $32k.....Robertson: $30k...Robertson: $42k...............Robertson:$35k
Shipng:$66.5k...Shipping: $70k.... Shipping: $60k................Shipping:$75k
VivaVv: $0.1k....Vivavuva: $5k......VivaVuva: $16k................VivaVuva:$15k
TOTAL: $725k... TOTAL: $770k...... TOTAL: $794k.....................TOTAL:$915k
Looks like I was about 5 to 15k high on everything.
Sorry. 6 months for uplist?
The discussion I'm hearing has a wide range of typical timeframes, and the shorter timeframes were well below 6 months. Are you assuming that it will be towards the longer end of the range of typical timeframes?
MDIN had previously been uplisted on those boards, so the uplisting should not take as long as a company uplisting for the first time.
Ha, ha. There you go, quoting the wrong price for Ray's conversion yet again. It's double the price that you gave.
So, we have predictions ranging from $600k to $800k, for revenue after returns.
After running through revenue breakdowns in more detail, I've adjusted my pick to $770k.
Here's my predicted breakdown, each rounded to 5k (after refunds), and which assumes that Robertson had a 50% dropoff compared to Q2 last year (with Melrose about the same, and websites up based on traffic).
OL: 395k
WOL: 175k
Melrose: 95k
Robertson: 30k
Shipping: 70k
Vivavuva: 5k
In each category, I've rounded DOWN to the nearest 5k. I could easily see adding an extra 5k to each of these categories, and 10k in the cases of OL and Melrose, leading to as much as 800k overall.
Well then, since I've now heard that "everyone knows it", I'll just believe it automatically. No need to dig for evidence!
So, when you said:
Thanks for clearing up the confusion.
I seriously doubt it.
I do not believe you when you say they are making up numbers.
Here's another note on Vivavuva's Alexa numbers.
Comparing VV this year, to OL and WOL at the same time last year (late July, 2012), for these categories:
3-month world rank, 1-month USA rank, 1-month Reach %
7/26/2013:
VV: 345k, 47.2k, .00037%
7/24/2012:
OL: 202k, 59k, .00048%
WOL: 413k, 112k, .00016%
So, its 1-month numbers are twice as good as WOL's were at the same time last year, and about 20% better than OL in USA rank while being a bit over 20% worse in reach.
I was tracking pageview % last summer.
While it's WAAAAY too early to accurately predict VV revenue for Q4, since it's still being developed and not really advertised yet, if you want to project a ballpark range by comparing to traffic of WOL and OL last year and this year, and how those converted into $$, I'd say about $400k based on WOL comparisons, and $700k based on OL comparisons.
I'd skew my projections towards WOL, since it's newer, to come up with an estimate of $500k for VV for Q4, give or take $200k. Obviously, take all this with a grain of salt. We'll have a better idea once we see what VV does in Q3.
Here's some more details on the Vivavuva numbers on Alexa:
From the beginning of July until the 19th, Vivavuva's 1-month reach was flat in the .00022% to .00025% range (I'll call this 22 to 25). From the 19th to the 26th, it rose from 25 to 37.
That puts it in a TIE with WorldOfLeggings for 1-month reach, and slowly closing on OnlyLeggings, which has also had a reach surge from 52 to 62 in the past week (Go O-L!)
Vivavuva also has a 1-month pageview % which is 4 times as high as WOL's, and is even with OL's.
This puts VV's 1-month ranks (world and USA) significantly ahead of WOL, and continuing to pull away!
VV is still behind OL in reach (66 to 37) and 1-month ranks (about 50% larger rank numbers), but it is gaining in rank at a pace that will have it matching OL in 1 to 2 months, if the trends keep up.
Is this twister day? More twisting of my words going on:
I NEVER claimed proof! Do not put words into my mouth!!
While looking over the quarterly report just now, I thought of something else.
Is there any way to verify that MDIN paid 328k in Income Tax, as is listed on their quarterly? I doubt they could get away with claiming to have paid that if they didn't really pay it to the IRS. The IRS would come around and say, "so, where's this money you claim to have paid us? We want it! "
Obviously, they must have really paid it.
So this lends further legitimacy to their claim of revenues that previous quarter. Do you really think they'd send that much money to the IRS if they didn't have real earnings and revenues? That would be an awful lot to pay just to try to fool people.
Not sure how you get the idea that any income is "missing".
Are you saying that because net income was higher than cash on hand?
None of the examples you gave are things which the company has said it plans to do, but relocating IS something they said they plan to do.
Anything listed on the ibox as possibly happening soon will give people the impression that there's a REASONABLE chance of them happening soon, say, greater than a 30% or 40% chance of them happening within a year.
I think you can say that about the chance that the store will be relocated, but you can't say that about the other things you mentioned. Perhaps you could convince me of the going current one, but not the others.
Also, to be balanced, if you list a bunch of negatives for the company which have about a 1% chance of happening, you need to list an equal number of positives for the company which have about a 1% chance of happening, such as Vivavuva taking off and racking up $10 million in sales in its first year, OL and WOL tripling their revenues in the next 12 months, or 4 new stores opening to great success. THOSE are the things that your list is most comparable to, not the possibility that the store will be relocated, IMO.
But I'm sure some will disagree about the likelihood of all these various things happening.
So, perhaps, to make everyone happy, the wording should be "the CEO has stated that he intends to reopen the Robertson store at a nearby location", or whatever it is he exactly said in the CC.
I do not believe it was ever posted in the first place.
I read this board fairly thoroughly, and have not seen it.
What is your evidence that it was the product that failed as opposed to the finances of the company?
You do recall the big economic downturn in late 2008, right? You do recall that a lot of companies struggled then, including a lot of good ones that took some chances with extra capital investments just before the downturn?
I have seen no evidence that the product itself failed.
Have you actually received a bottle yourself, in 2013, with Eckerd's on the label, or know of anyone who has? Are you basing this only on an old photo on Amazon?
Can anyone who has ordered Snorenz this year tell us whether stores are listed on the packaging, and if so, which ones?
From how I read it, it wasn't the old LABEL they were talking about remaining in stores until it runs out, it was the old FORMULA. Do not confuse them as being the same. I would bet there are bottles with the new label and the formula from before this latest update.
Not sure of the timing, but in advance of the announcement, I just re-ran my numbers and realized that I made a mistake in earlier calculations.
I had the 2 websites, OnlyLeggings and WorldOfLeggings, bringing in about 390k and 180k, respectively, after returns, and I'm not changing that part.
However, in projecting total revenue from that (adding in stores and such), I should have added about 34%, based upon the last 2 quarters, and I somehow calculated much higher.
So my new prediction comes out to $765k for the quarter.
If Robertson store sales slacked off during the quarter due to closing preparations, it could be a little less.