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Falk family tree
I remember the same issue coming up and JimC, who would have known (as a major shareholder), saying that there was no relation between Fred and Helmut.
wsj
FF I'm surprised that Falk is still there
this long. Unlike the apologists one can find on the Jonestown board sometimes (meaning that not everyone there is like that, but some are), I think Falk was clearly demoted, probably for continually providing overinflated estimates to the shareholders, and must have been looking for another job ever since.
He's not likely to be there much longer (my prediction) based on how the whole telematics thing has turned out. But that's one man's guess.
wsj
Logically, there seem to be two possibilities here,
(excluding that edig got totally taken) although I don't know that either are likely. 1) The production costs, etc... were paid by Fujitsu on an ongoing basis or 2) they are back on track with Fujitsu and production and product introduction costs will be paid when the product is delivered to Fujitsu.
I certainly can not see 2) happening and would be shocked if it did.
Possibility 1) seems to make no sense because they asked for some $2 million upfront, which sure sounds like production and engineering costs all wrapped together.
wsj
Yes, its our share of the multi-
billion dollar telematics industry (to quote Collier roughly). Along with our share of the multi-billion dollar DAP market, I'm already richer than Bill Gates.
Can't wait for "our share" of other burgeoning markets.
wsj
Yup ....
Ryan shot off a lot of hot air early on about the device but with everything else you have to do (serve liquor, etc...) on a short haul flight and low cutomer demand for the units due to the time constraint, it seems straightforward.
wsj
JW
There has not been a lot to post about in a few months, since there have not been any important announcements, so unless one wants to furiously connect dots (remember the old days on RB where people were connecting dots to other connected dots even from other company's message boards?) it can get pretty quiet.
Staying warm?
wsj
The Longer (Time Period) View
Any one quarter can be different than the last quarter for various reasons -- delay in orders, management deferral of revenue recognition (if allowable). So the recent 10Q can be interpreted several ways: down from the preceding quarter in terms of revenues or better than the quarter before that (which was down from the quarter before that....)
A bigger picture comes from comparing the calendar year to the preceding one.
Here are the revenue numbers (millions of $) on a quarter ending basis:
12-04 1419 12-03 0718
09-04 2028 09-03 1098
06-04 0093 06-03 1154
03-04 0448 03-03 1112
Pretty much the same for the 12 month period, so not a lot happening there.
How about loss per share for the same quarters?
12-04 .006 12-03 .008
09-04 .003 09-03 .005
06-04 .005 06-03 .004
03-04 .005 03-03 .005
A bit better for the last 12 month period, but not dramatically better.
wsj
FF: I find those thoughts very plausible
While I can't say that I would totally understand what would go on inside the embedded system, if the company designed the handheld with various security features, etc... that would seem to carry over to the embedded and give the company a "major" role there.
We know they can design some cutting edge products in terms of technology and come out with interesting prototypes (for lack of a better phrase). Gotta wait and see on broad scale adoption by airlines, etc...
wsj
Agreed on the accounting rules, those are clear, but that's not what I'm focusing on. To me that passage, which some seem to have interpreted as "revenue will be over 2.2" is management saying that revenue and deposits together will be over 2.2.
Those are classic weasel words. Rather than saying that last quarter's revenue will not be at the level of the previous quarter, they are saying we have revenue for last quarter and we've got deposits for more orders so don't worry.
Kind of like Sammy Sosa saying "I hit 50 home runs two years ago. And I hit 35 this past year plus I'm ready to hit more next year, so everything is OK.'
Cause I've owned the stock for over 5 years.
Remember, all that is gold does not glitter. And not everyone who owns the stock shouts "Hallelujah" every time it is mentioned by name.
Is this the rumor about big things in March that has been whispered around recently?
It would be good thing if it happens:
"Wencor announces it has received FAA approval and major airlines have agreed to purchasing the embedded digeplayer"
What you're interpreting here does not seem to be what the English language is saying, as per their use of it. I had to look at it a couple times as well.
It says:
"it expects revenues and advance payments, [part snipped to focus on the main part of the sentence], of over $2.2 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2004."
That says to me revenues plus advance payments to be over $2.2. Not revenues over $2.2.
Obviously a strange way to state/report results but that's how it's stated.
I hope that does not turn out to be true,
but if the 2.2 million number for the last quarter is evenly split between actual revenues (as per FASB standards) and deposits (future recognized revenues), the previos quarter's numbers look again like a one time blip rather than a sustained new level of revenue.
Although I'm thinking that the market has pretty much factored that in -- information always seems to get out before the audited numbers are announced -- so hopefully the worst is over.
wsj
Point Taken
That is part of the Range War mentality, where the "if he's not for us, he must be against us" attitude comes from.
If he's not clearly on our side, he might be one of them and they're bad guys (cause they are on the other side).
I must say that investing in BB stocks has been an interesting spectator sport, but sometimes an expensive one.
wsj
Owd
Yeah, the way people behave and comment regarding some penny stocks is so different than the upper world of major exchange traded companies.
There is so much of a "you are either for us or against us" type of mentality with some penny stocks, where you get attacked by others if you dare question anything about the company.
I think it might, as per my post, reveal more about the attackers than the attacked. They may be overinvested and truly afraid themselves about the company's future. But they are acting out in the other direction; talking sunshine in the hope that it will keep others from selling and attacking those that question, for fear that it will affect the price before they themselves can get out.
wsj
Bashing?
Is calling the earth round rather than flat "bashing"? That's just calling a spade, a spade.
If some stock trades at $1 a share and its short term prospects are not good, saying so and predicting the price in three months will be $1 is reality, not bashing.
I think too many people have a day trader mentality, consumed in vain with trying to make the price go up or down by what they say on some message board and making their message board comments based not upon reality but on their current net position.
"This is the next Microsoft" (Read: I'm long today)
"This is the next Enron" (Read: I'm short today)
They're the ones with the problem, because they think everyone else is like they are. They live in glass houses and then throw stones at the brick abodes of others.
People who own the stock with a longer term perspective don't play that little game. And they have the right to question the company because they paid the price of omission.
You think the shareholders in NYSE companies, including the institutions, don't get all over management when things aren't going well? Are they bashers?
Consider that and then ask yourself which group are the sophisticated investors, those guys or people loading up on a BB company. It's a little acid test that is quite revealing.
Happy Roth IRA trading to you,
wsj
Joe
Your post shows all kinds of mature insight.
The company has been rumored to be about to do something every March. You have to be very astute (LOL) to get excited about another such rumor, especially when what has materialized in the past has been revenue bearing but not generating positive net cash flow.
Be sure to "back up the truck and load up some more", so you can spend your retirement years working at odd jobs rather than living off an annuity generated by your portfolio.
And go ahead, make a prediction for the stock price in May then based on that rumor. If it is above my .21 I hope you're right because I'm long the stock.
Gotta Agree On That
Ever see how people react on the other board, despite its strict TOS, if you question the Holy Gospel? And they never get TOS'd for it.
Reminds one of religious zealotry at its worst -- and historically that often does not turn out too good.
wsj
HH
I think the problem is that Liarlong (have you ever noticed that when you say "lawyer" real fast multiple times it always sounds like "liar"?) backed up the old truck to the loading dock and bought into the stock big time, dreaming of the Big Bang upwards.
He has admitted as much, in some old posts that Murrayhill dug out in response to a similar post by me on RB.
I guess he has never heard of diversification.
But instead of taking his losses like a Big Boy, he does his little "I'm Wyatt Earp" imitation and threatens to get people run out of town/thrown off Agora. He couldn't get a Greyhound bus out of town.
My next post will be on Agora suggesting another stock price forecasting contest. Since Murrayhill may still be out of the country, I can have the honor of setting my forecast equal to the current price ~
wsj
The Situation
Well, I suspect it will not be overly good in 2005. Assuming that the company is not totally irresponsible, their 12/22 statement must mean that the forecast of about 2.2 million in revenue for the last quarter will be met. However, revenues are not net cash flows.
But the recent decline in stock price forecasts poor things for the future. Probably driven by less than happy results for IFE adoption/further order, which is no surprise given posts over the last several weeks.
Still nothing concrete on other projects, so the total package is not looking real good for the year right now.
Any cash from a Fujitsu arbitration settlement is a one time event, although it cuts the costs of funding any "new developments".
wsj
Plus, I'm waiting for Shareholder Appreciation Day
There are two versions of this, based on English language usage. In one, the share price will appreciate.
In the other, management will show their appreciation by having a little party for us. Maybe Oreos and Kool-aid in the parking lot. We could hang out there with the guys who are stalking management, such as igotallyourmoney who used to post on edig, who truly are appreciative.
OK, I think that's all the fun I can have with this topic.
wsj
FF
Yes, I'm expecting edig to adopt these management selfdiscipline measures shortly
That, along with taping all phone conversations between management and investors so they can be replayed later to verify what management actually said. **2 (That is a smiley squared).
Kind of like tape recording all confessions by suspects to the police as a form of official record.
wsj
Management Could Precommit to Pay
$100,000 charity every time an actual number (revenues, or whatever that is on the "plus" side) comes in below the estimate.
That might solve the historical problems of overly optimistic estimates.
wsj
I'm not a lawyer, so perhaps if one with proper background is in the vicinity they could comment, but I believe that shareholder lawsuits can solely or partly be against management.
Certain things are actions against management and they can be hit with damages.
The company has little in real assets, you say? Well, management may not be wealthy either but losing a lawsuit and having to pay some major damages personally does hit the right place if the top management of a company were in fact judged to be guilty of wrongdoing.
wsj
Well, a lot of fun has been had in response to a 12 cent move.
Now let's see what the future brings in terms of net revenues on a continual basis. If the digeplayer "clicks" and there are major large orders in succession, we could see several quarters of $1.5 mill. or more in revenues. Four of those and the annual figures is $6 mill, which would exceed the previous high of about $3.4 mill.(?) by about 80%.
We shall see.
wsj
Johny D.
Agreed. It would be great if the 6000 happen from RyanAir. The chickens have not yet hatched however.
Moxa
Thanks for that. At the high end of the range I was using some numbers that had been thrown around before, which may not be correct.
Fred:
Although recent feature articles make it sound like the 6000 units is a done deal, the original press release makes it clear that they will have a trial on some flights and if that is successful then they will go up to 6000.
Sounds like the Irish dude who runs RyanAir may have a bit of the bluster and barney in him, talking the big numbers to reporters -- 6000 units and he'll make millions from them -- but still not having explicitly committed to a full rollout.
If it comes to pass, in fulfillment of the Scriptures ,that should be a ton of revenue for edig, based even on them getting $100 per unit. And a massive revenue if they get $500-$1000 per unit.
wsj
While I don't think that insolvency is a likely event, the familiar "back up the truck and load up on edig because you'll do great' is equally unlikely.
In the past the news about this company (or the rumor that seems to be credible) has leaked out before the public announcement. So it's a little hard to convince investors that the NEXT announcement, whatever it is, will move the price because it has historically moved before the public announcement.
Not to mention the "information" about events that have not come to pass.
In other words, what those of us removed from the inner circle hear is of no value over the last five years.
If the company can deliver on some grand predictions, that will move the price. But that will take delivery of net revenues, not delivery of press releases with miminal net revenue information. I would not load up the truck on the latter.
wsj
HH: On target about that
The company has not delivered substantive results, and the excuses are getting lamer by the minute.
Sure, if the economy or the market turns south then what was expected earlier will not happen, but its a matter of degree.
Failed launch after failed launch in this product sector is hard to explain away.
Lamest excuse of all is the "well, the OEMs want to wait until the next generation hard drive is ready." With that decision making process (supposedly), product will never be produced and sold because there is always be another generation (Moore's Law broadly defined) of technology around the corner.
Despite the spin on Agora, I'm sure (as you state) that FF was demoted because the Board was tired of lack of delivery on promises.
It took a while because he's been there a while and that buys you some slack.
But it's got nothing to do with "putting the right skills in the right position."
wsj
Murrayhill
Sent you an email. Hope all goes well.
Jack
Schtum
It's a piece of bad German/slang (and possibly also a part of Yiddish). To describe someone as schtum means literally that they are mute in German.
It is slang for "be quiet" or "shut up" in German, having been invoked by the Monty Python boys on one occasion I believe.
And by me to supress an obnoxious student from Germany. Details supplied on request.
wsj
While I think you raise some valid points, you seem to be jumping off the deep again.
What makes you think Atul will quit?
We know the 3/31 quarter was a bust, but if they are correct the June and September ended ones should be good.
The use of debt financing is a good sign, all else equal, because firms issue debt only when they have revenues to service it.
wsj
Yes, that occurred to me as well this morning. Production started or might even have finished, but if you don't book revenue until it is sold to the retailer or sold through to the customer, then you have a delay.
What if (extreme case) we produced all the units and then they told us to hold the shipment, awaiting their future plans?
So RP's answer might be accurate and to the point, but the real question, that by and large has been asked much less frequently than the production one, is: When will we get the money and how much?
Info. will not be forthcoming too soon on that one, it seems.
wsj
Jtdiii
What then explains the fact that revenued forecast for the current quarter have been pushed into the future, in your opinion?
WSJ
SDR
Thanks, that's pretty much what I thought (although I did not enunciate it very well).
wsj
BOD Share Purchases
HH, do the people on the BOD draw any salary? If not, they may feel that they have enough invested already. Meaning they are putting in their time and perhaps it will be a (higher) salaried position later if the company succeeds.
Frankly, if they were going to buy shares they would have most likely purchased them a while ago, because if they buy in big time shortly before some public announcements (which they knew about earlier when the deal was made), it raises the specter of insider trading. Meaning that their lack of purchase to date might not necessarily mean that good things aren't about to happen.
We shall see.
wsj
Jwperk:
Missed your post to me the other night. Happy holidays.
WSJ
Then Get Thee to the SEC
If you think that (once again) you have uncovered a clear violation of the Securities Laws, then go and report it to the SEC. That is the logical conclusion of your "arguments"
Why haven't you?
Is that not the logical end of all your discussions? Rather than posting away on a message board, do something about it.
Therein rests the heart of the issue. As demonstrated by your behavior, You don't care about the core issue. You care about having a soap box to stand on and shout from to get attention.
If the SEC doesn't pay attention to you, then why be logically consistent and pursue that avenue?
Better to hang out on a message board and be the Prophetess of Troy, forecasting doom left and right (in hindsight) as anyone could do about any techie growth stock in the last four years.
I really hope the Holidays bring you something better. Or perhaps you can travel to Chicago and enjoy the season with Zack.
wsj
But, because the West Coast is in a different time zone than the rest of us, does this not also mean that they hear the webcast later than we do?
Cassie, you really need to be logically consistent.
LOL a thousand times over.
wsj