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I am saying the 100M bond is a pittance compared to MNTA damages going forward for years beyond patent protection.
Interest rates are not much of consideration right now.
Just don't let them appeal without a penalty if the loose. We can't track them down in China if the loose. That would be my argument.
Watson will say it wasn't us, so it is the Big A that needs to put up the mega appeal bond. My thoughts.
OK, Unless things have changed since I retired, here is where we request an appeal bond for all our damages. Big Big One!
Include attorney fees, and treble damages.
Make the 100M bond, we post, look like a pittance.
I would never trust these people to pay if they loose.
Their net worth doesn't compare to the damage they might have caused all of us and MNTA.
We always had to post an appeal bond when we lost. Now it is their turn.
If patent litigation is different, let me know.
Sorry,
I forgot to say Thank You to the MNTA attorneys who did a great job to get a PI that few thought they would get.
Judge nailed it. A quick read on the opinion and he covered the bases in gold. Well written from my quick review.
I would not want to be short 4.9M shares after reading the opinion.
Cute how we get a downgrade before the opinion. Guess what happened after hours on that one? Friend of Teva possible on our downgrade? They just could not wait until the opinion for the downgrade.
We have to put up a 100 M bond. How about Amphastar if the loose any appeal? MNTA damages?
Did all notice how the Judge talked about the loss of 30 percent in the value of the stock in his opinion? That is us folks.
Thank you again to all for their input. I wanted to puke all day but, my few times fail gut said, hang in there.
I loved the poster information about only a 13 percent reversal on appeal.
Remember, most of the news will circulate this weekend. Sharks in the water, on the shorts on Mond,y might happen.
We will be on a plane to Denver but, I have our guardian angel watching what happens for the 2 hours of no contact on Monday.
15 year old single malt scotch tonight. Last night no sleep, but, tonight it is written I get sleep.
A great weekend to the Judge, and all on the boards.
A couple of good responses by MNTA attorney that the Judge might or might not see since the additional reply was denied.
I guess we will find out tonight one way or another.
Best of luck to all here.
A few considerations.
The MNTA attorney said a month to be ready for trial. They have been dealing with two suits, and likely know the patents inside and out, and likely know what they need to know to be ready for trial.
Ampastar attorney, I need 1 year to get ready for trial. Judge, hmmnnnn. They are in a rush to sell the drug yet can’t be ready for trial for one year. My words.
Next,
“Second, the independent claims call for the use of “a separation method to determine the presence of a structural signature” of enoxaparin. Claim 56 states that the structural signature is determined using CE. As explained, “determin[ing] a structural signature” is determining the presence or amount of a non-naturally occurring sugar. Therefore, if the independent claims were interpreted to mean that CE, and only CE, must be used “to determine the presence of a structural signature,” dependent claim 56 would be entirely duplicative of the independent claims. Any such interpretation would be at odds with the doctrine of claim differentiation. Moreover, there is no suggestion in the patent, no suggestion in the record of this case, and no scientific basis for suggesting, that CE could be used once to determine the presence of a structural signature and then used again to determine what the underlying sugar actually is. To the contrary, the patent teaches that different and additional methods would have to be used for that purpose. See, e.g., 47:62-65.1 Thus, as applied to claim 56, the defendants’ argument is nonsense. Similarly, claim 54 is directed to the use of HPLC to determine a structural signature. HPLC, like CE, is a separation method. Like CE, it can be (and is) used in commercial production release testing to determine the presence of the relevant structural signature of enoxaparin. (Recall that, by the time of commercial production, the identity of the sugars under each peak in the output of the HPLC device has previously been determined.) And, like CE, nothing in the patent, nothing in the evidence before the Court, and nothing in scientific fact, suggests that the use of two separation methods -- e.g., HPLC followed by HPLC, CE followed by HPLC, or HPLC followed by CE -- could be used to understand what is the structure of a particular sugar that is associated with a particular peak that is the output of either an HPLC or a CE process. Instead, both CE and HPLC, when referenced in the dependent claims, are fairly understood to be sub-categories of the separation method of the independent claims.”
“Thus, as applied to claim 56, the defendants’ argument is nonsense.”
Agree Judge might or might not read this. They again, he might.
Next,
“1 In this context, the Court should note that the '886 patent states that “in a further embodiment the method of the
invention relates to the use of CE separation followed by off-line MALDI-MS analysis to derive structural
information …. 34:7-10. Defendants cite this language at p. 1 of their submission, but omit the italicized language,
thereby suggesting that what the patent calls an “alternate embodiment” is actually the invention of the patent. In
any event, this disclosure indicates that the use of CE alone, no matter how often CE is run, will not determine what
is the actual structure of a sugar that CE has separated from other sugars.
___________________________________________________________
Amphastar determines is, in fact, associated with the non-naturally occurring sugar that is associated with peak 9 of Fig. 1 of the '886 patent. Therefore, Amphastar infringes the independent claims of the '886 patent.” Note how they omit stuff?
“but omit the italicized language,”
Again the Judge might or might not read the request to submit.
Even if he does not read it is telling.
Next, if the Judge gives a PI, which as most say they almost never do, how long will he give. 1 year? That is what they said they need. Not us.
One thing for sure, this stock can cause a heart attack.
Last but not least, if he does give a PI, what happens with the 5M shorts?
Oh well, I guess we will know late Friday night.
I hope MNTA mgt. is not expecting great stock options this year.
They should suffer with the stock holders.
They need to get their act into high gear.
Just IMHO.
Dew, I spent a bunch of time on this and almost deleted it. Same track on damages.
I could, and would, make an argument that all damages or potential damages accrue at the time the suit is filed and not on what events might or might not happen after the suit is filed. Otherwise, a suit might never be decided.
Most law suits, I was involved with, had a specific date the damages happened. The damages can continue to accrue.
To pile on a total different event, New AG, that happens after the suit is filed, to change the damages awarded, might not fly. Just saying.
I am well aware this is a patent infringement suit.
Next if MNTA does not prevail they need to take a serious look at buying another company or drugs while they work on a new pipeline.
Robert Langer is still a consultant. How about a trip to MIT and buy another potential drug or drugs with cash?
I suggested buying one company with a new drug mfg. plant coming on line in DEC. 30M sales, where the stock has been hit hard, as a buyout potential. MNTA needs to be covering potential steal deal to buy out there.
As for the post about NFLX. The top 11 shareholders that lost 41.47 a share today could have caused the mother of all short squeezes on MNTA with the money they lost today. That is not counting individual investor losses. OUCH.
One post said they don't see Copaxone until 2013 or 2014 as they can't replicate a MS generic. Not what I have heard listening to the conference calls. They have sounded pretty confident on the replication. The question is if they have it covered in all aspects on the patents. They did not do that additional study for no reason.
Depending how this PI comes out, MNTA can pull the same thing on other companies if it decided it can be a free for all with no holds barred or patents honored.
Enough doom and gloom, and now management needs to figure out how to blow the socks off this stock.
All just my opinion.
If sucker punched, MNTA must learn to not let that happen again.
They better look at every patent they have, and cover any uncovered areas based on what is going on and likely to go on from here on out. It is obvious how the future generic products will need to cover every base. This will drive the cost up on generics. Bet that.
I am guessing they had to know a couple of weeks ago they were going to take the position they are taking. The question is did they tell MNTA?
MNTA now on notice with Copaxone and any other approvals. Need to think more about any wording on contracts due how they play games on how competition is going to try and avoid patents.
Damages are now wide open to the sky against the 3 defendant's if, they infringed, and now try and sell the product.
Good lesson to learn before any FOB contracts.
A win in one area IMHO today.
Amphastar will not be seeing this case go to CA on a change in venue.
We would not see the request for the 5 page brief. The Judge would have shipped the case if they won that argument and let a CA. Judge request the brief.
Second win, an extension of the TRO.
Now the MNTA law firm has to come up with the Gold in responding to the Judge. I hope they are planning on working the entire weekend on this one. This memorandum of law will likely end up being critical through out the entire case if a PI is granted.
All IMHO.
Thank you to all for your input. Different eyes, see different things.
After hours trades.
Some very large after hours trades.
Last one was for 400 shares at 13.70.
18K plus on one trade.
Closed at 13.21 before after hours trading.
I agree.
Once they answer the suit, a couple of interrogatories requesting all emails, phone calls, in house memos, letters, discussions and submissions to the FDA , on the issues, should not take longer than 90 days. Then you cross check with the FDA. They likely have it all in one file.
I don't think it will take long to know the answer. Court case time is another story.
Question, are the FDA filings public record? If so, they can't play games. Once one lies, it goes down hill fast. Just saying we might have an idea on any patent violation much quicker than most think.
Time is of the essence, so we might not have as long a time for feedback as most think. It depends on our attorney being very aggressive on not running up the bill, but, finding out the bottom line ASAP.
If there is a violation, then go for the throat. Don't expose MNTA if there was no violation.
I see what you are both saying.
Time will tell.
I was leaning the royalty way and the more I thought about it, I am not so sure.
If they try and work out a royalty agreement they admit they infringed on the IP.
MNTA will never make up the difference lost each quarter with a xx royalty payment.
Watson has the deep pockets and MNTA has a right to immediate greater damages if the IP was violated.
I am not sure how the anticompetitive applies when there is supply on the market with two big players.
If I were Watson, I would be making darn sure on the IP.issue.
Time will tell
'Regulardoc'
You win the brass ring.
NVS and Teva are not going down without a fight. NVS spent a year building up sales. If any are going to try and channel stuff, for the last quarter, I feel it will be Teva and NVS reps trying to cut WPI off at the draw.
The purchasing comment is right in there. Will people change to Amphastar for one drug vs. the known of Teva and NVS right now?
Does WPI have the clout of Teva or NVS remains to be seen.
If people are getting volume discounts from Teva and NVS with all their drugs, they might not change for just one drug.
Will pharmacists or a doctor go for the new over the known until the new has proved itself? Say what one will, but, Teva and NVS have big bucks to back them up if anything goes south like it did before. Does Amphastar have the kind of assets or liability insurance amounts that a Teva or NVS has? If I was a doctor or pharmacist, I would think about that one very close with no track record with the drug on their part. Approval and manufacturing track records are two different things.
They might be great when one can tell in a year.
I think the sell off is over done pending word if there will be a patent suit, or hearing what MNTA has to say.
I just hope they know they have a better chance than 75 percent to win on any patent suit. Less chance, makes for a harder win in my experience.
Conference.
MNTA might have something going on that the lady was asked to present at an expensive conference last week.
http://www.proimmune.com/ecommerce/pdf_files/RP2.pdf
Note her subject.
2nd page.
Short Interest,
"8/31/2011 7,432,243 days to cover 11.251973"
One of these days Alice.
Thank you Rocky3 for getting the script information each month.
August Lovenox Scripts
I believe August should be in the bag tonight and then we start on Sept. scripts. I will be very interested to see the August numbers.
Two more exclusive months and a net milestone payment amount around 3.5M. to the bottom line under the belt.
Correction a new patent.
It looks like anNew patent patent was approved August 11th?
"BIOMATERIALS, THEIR PREPARATION BY ELECTROSPINNING AND THEIR USE IN THE BIOMEDICAL AND SURGICAL FIELD"
Some AM. news.
MNTA listed in Top 10 NASDAQ Stocks with Highest Return on Assets today.
MNTA came in number 4. "ROA was "86.22% for the last 12 months."
Jazz came at number 7 with a ROA "69.00% for the last 12 months."
I only mention Jazz due to the higher price and lower ROA.
Thank you.
I think Teva has a bad headache this AM. after loosing the Pfizer patent infringement suit on Viagra. I suspect they are in damage control mode this AM.
I wonder how much that is going to cost them.
Analyst up estimates.
"0.93 and 0.59 vs. 0.62 and 0.23"
The -0.11 went to -.06. Ha Ha. We exceeded that in July. Paid hack or total idiot? His/her figure for the whole year is "1.75". We are at 2.39 at six months. This person is getting paid?
Current year revenue estimate "285.89M"
High estimate, who has been the closest, giving us earnings of "4.92" for the year.
I await the next upward revisions by seven of the eight analyst.
Dew,
Thank you.
I am aware of the upper production potential.
I think we might get more attention when the analyst wake up and start spreading the word. We can see a higher stock price when more people wake up to the potential of this company.
Out of 8 analyst the consensus for the next two quarters are 0.62 and 0.23. One analyst shows -.11 for the third quarter. We should already have blown him or her out of the water with July sales. At around .45 EPS cents a month they have a big adjustment to make.
MNTA should be blowing the .62 cent EPS average estimates out of the water this week with script sales.
As I see it, one analyst is in the ball park at the high estimate of 1.36 for next quarter. If August is like July, there are 7 people that are wrong and need to up their estimates.
Out of the 10M milestone payment there is around 4M net after the last payment of 6M some that goes into the third quarter. That should off set lower script numbers for people on vacations.
An average.23 cents EPS for the 4th quarter will be a joke if Oct. scripts are like July or better. Even with paying taxes, we should exceed that estimate.
I don't understand how so many analyst can be so far off on their estimates.
I am sorry to Rockye3 on my error. Like I said, I am very tired and did not intend to give the wrong person credit. I am sure they are both great people.
I just wanted to thank him for the numbers and say they are not bad at all in my opinion. If the Script numbers stay this good for the next two months I think we get big attention.
Heart palpitations?
Boy, I go fishing for a week and you all let things get out of control.
Kodiak bear thirty feet away making up her mind if we are for dinner.
We find out all this when we hit the Anchorage airport.
Still, I watched and saw the 600 point drop and am not aware of the prior drops.
Now for my feedback. Scripts for July look great. Lower but people like me are gone and not wanting surgery if possible.
"7/01 8,096 51,087
7/08 7,426 45,458
7/15 8,149 49,269
7/22 7,656 49,600"
195.500 Scripts approx. Another week to go for July.
Thank you Rock Rat for the figures.
Down, guessing, 6K from the prior month but, I am not worried. Most having to face surgery want to wait for the cooler weather, so I think this is great.
Trying to catch up after being gone for a week.
I am actually glad that weak investors or funds sold. Better for all of the rest here.
I did not get in until 10 last night, went to bed, got up and read the transcript before I could sleep well. I was very happy.
I think a bunch here are on the right track. This stock could/can explode. Way too cheap IMHO. Risk yes, but, potential beyond belief if MGT does it right.
I noticed the price trying to move up and them not wanting it to go up too fast today.
Still dragging big time from a week of fighting the biggest and the great looking Sockeye's.
For those heading fishing in AK the Pinks are coming in major. Last I heard they are considering another open season due to the numbers. Don't trust me and check the news.
Best to all.
I waited until the market close as this will be my last post for today.
I don't think they will give me 27 posts for while I am gone. I have to pick my brother-in-law up at 4AM., so that is likely good.
MNTA could buy a late stage drug off a company that is short of cash.
They could buy a company with several products and a ton of cash on the cheap. Many options could be considered. Or, just go the FOB route.
I notice that the institutions are starting to report their holdings for June. It starts on the second page at the NASDAQ site.
The open today was lower than the prior close but, the close was above the prior close today. That made me happy. Prior day close was 17.58. Today close 17.69.
Off for an early dinner now.
Thank you for that input.
Amazing isn't it.
It appears they give no value for MNTA being 36 months along with the FDA on our MS generic. That is a major chunk of waiting time out of the way. 3 Teva petitions denied.
I agree with you all. A PE of 7.51 this AM. is nuts.
Cute how they up the EPS estimates from .97 to 1.13 a week before earnings.
Ask some great questions on the CC please.
I for one would like to know if they have more drugs in the works. A number would do fine. I am guessing they have more than the four that we know about.
I hope to see and hear good news when I get back in 9 days.
Best to all.
Thank you Flo for the welcome and kind words.
Thank you Dew for your response.
Thank you to the other members who answered my questions.
I wish all a great CC.
Dew,
I have come to respect you just from lurking. I am suggesting you could not have researched ANIK this fast. It took me days and hours.
MNTA has no experts in house, that can evaluate ANIK as a potential, is a stretch IMHO.
The MNTA guys are brilliant. I am not saying it should happen. They could buy a drug with their cash. I am just saying take a look.
JNJ might be taking a look as they are selling their products.
I really don't care, as long as MNTA kicks you know what.
Hi all,
New to this board. Great board from my lurking.
A few things to consider. I will state my position. 5K shares long.
Older investor, who has been around the turnip patch more than I care to admit. If people double their position state what that position was doubled too. Pet peeve.
Observations:
I see the Yahoo board talking about buying shares back. Huh? MNTA could buy a drug first, on the cheap, before buying stock back.
Second, I see AHANDE might own ANIK like me. I am 5K long there likewise. MNTA could buy ANIK, pick up 147M in sales, a new mfg,m plant coming on line at the first of the year, mega cash, their non competing products and for picking up one half the 13M shares.
13M shares and as I figure it only 1250 of us can own 5K shares with the institutional shares and insider shares owned. Look at their financials.
ANIK is in Bedford, Mass and MNTA is in Cambridge, MA. Not saying it is the end all but with their product sales and along with a new mfg plant, at the end of this year,if they want to do their own drug mfg it might be a potential to be considered.
Look at the cash they pick up. Selling at book value right now.
I am heading out to a remote fishing location Sat. Like, no communication during both press cc. I do hope all will get on the horn during the CC and ask all the questions that need to be asked. I was not going to post until I got back, but, needed to give some input before I leave.
I am guessing 3.50 to 4.20 earnings this year. Divide the cost of a share of stock into that figure and go find a bank that pays that kind of return. If they drive the stock price down the return goes up.
My best guess is if all the shares sold and bought the last week were shorts there are still approx. 5M shorts. This stock is likely oversold. I would not want to be short going into next week. Sell the good news has happened IMHO. Time will tell.
Last but not least, the analysts are out to lunch on their valuation of this stock. IMHO. My broker thinks so, I think so and I have researched thousands of stocks and few are in the position that MNTA is in right now.
As always, all do their own DD. All this is my opinion.
They need to come out on the CC call, that I will not be able to hear, and bust this stock out. I think they have way more drugs in the wing and all they need to do is say the number and not the names. I am too tired to find the PR where I picked this up but, it is out there.
If they don't do that, then just respond to all the other questions already asked.
On another note it would seem that the initial trial ended or should have ended yesterday. I would like to hear some feedback if possible before I leave Sat.
Sorry this is long but does anyone have the July sales figures for Lovenox before I get out of here Sat?
Best to all and hold the fort down.