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May 13 PEIX said thier Gross Margins Were 85 cents and Rising
CME Ethanol Outlook On May 13th said Gross Margins Were 93.4 cents
cmegroup.barchart.com/ethanol/archive/1368452479CME-Weekly-Ethanol-13-May-2013.pdf
Jul 2 ~ net gain of 14.7 cents per gallon
Jul 12 ~ net profit of 9.2 cents per gallon of ethanol produced
Jul 15 ~ net profit of 23 cents per gallon
Jul 17 ~ 27.2 cents per gallon
Jul 25 ~ net gain of 22.7 cents per gallon
Jul 29 ~ a gain of 16 cents per gallon
Aug 2 ~ net gain of 30.2 cents per gallon
Aug 6 ~ net gain of 30.2 cents per gallon
Aug 8 ~ net gain of 26.2 cents per gallon
Aug 17 ~ net gain of 20.4 cents per gallon
Aug 28 ~ net gains of 22.3 cents per gallon
Aug 30 ~ net gains to 28.4 cents per gallon
Sep 3 ~ net gain of 27.4 cents per gallon
Sep 10 ~ net gain of 37.2 cents per gallon
Sep 13 ~ net profit of 40 cents per gallon
Sep 18 ~ net gain of 27.6 cents per gallon
Sep 20 ~ net gain of 30.2 cents per gallon
Sep 23 ~ net gain of 29.7 cents per gallon
Sep 24 ~ net gains of 30.2 cents per gallon
Sep 25 ~ net gain of 28.1 cents per gallon
Platts 6Sep2013 ~ WEEKLY WRAP:
Ethanol production margin jumped to highest level in over 21 months , The last time the margin was any higher was on November 25, 2011
The estimated weekly production margin for a typical US Midwest dry-mill ethanol plant jumped 22.99 cents, or 28.75%, this week to 102.99 cents/gal, according to a Platts estimate based on a Friday review of data.
The estimated weekly ethanol production margin rose for the fourth consecutive week. The last time the margin was any higher was on November 25, 2011, when it was 119.23 cents/gal.
The estimated weekly ethanol production margin has almost tripled since July 26, when it was 37.92 cents/gal.
This week's increase in the estimated weekly ethanol production margin was the result of a sizable drop in the cost of corn combined with a higher ethanol price.
The weekly average estimated delivered feedstock corn cost fell for the first time in five weeks, dropping 59.24 cents, or 9.32%, to $5.7621/bushel, the lowest level in almost 21 months. It had not been this low since December 16, 2011, when it was $5.6972/bushel.
Sources attributed the weaker corn price to improving prospects for the US corn harvest, which could be the most bountiful in years.
The weekly average estimated dried distillers grain byproduct price, however, rose for the third week in a row as it nudged 8 cents higher to a six-week high of $223.80/st on weaker ethanol production, analysts said, which tightened the supply of dried distillers grains in the marketplace.
Ethanol production for the reporting week that ended August 30 edged down 1,000 b/d to 819,000 b/d, the lowest level in five months, weekly US Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday.
The estimated denaturant cost reversed course after three weeks of gains, decreasing 3.23 cents to a three-week low of $2.1635/gal, while the estimated natural gas cost gained 10 cents to $3.69/MMBtu.
The denaturant cost was based on the weekly average of the Platts natural gasoline assessment at the Conway, Kansas, hub, while the gas cost was based on the September Platts Chicago ANR 7 pipeline monthly index.
The estimated ethanol price used in calculating the margin was the weekly average of the Platts Chicago Argo ethanol assessment, which rose 1.31 cents to a 13-week high of $2.6694/gal, the fifth consecutive week of gains, on increasingly tight supply, sources said.
US Midwest ethanol stocks fell by 77,000 barrels for the reporting week that ended August 30 to 4.86 million barrels, the lowest level recorded by the EIA since it started tracking ethanol inventories in the reporting week that ended June 4, 2010.
Overall, US ethanol stocks in the same time period shrank 34,000 barrels to an eight-week low of 16.216 million barrels, EIA data showed Wednesday.
The estimated production margin for a typical dry-mill ethanol plant was calculated by weighing data from Platts and government agencies, including average delivered corn cost, dried distiller grain prices, natural gas prices, certain blending costs and ethanol prices.
Q3-13 Pacific Ethanol
We tell each other that Q3 will be better than Q2. I agree, and now I will say why.
In Q2 the operating capacity was 87% = 34,8M gallon
In the Q2 webcast July 25 you can hear NK say the operating capacity Q3 is 92% and increasing = 36,8M gallon – that is plus 2,0M gallon in Q3 vs. Q2 (maybe more, because NK did say “and increasing”).
The operating margin is much better in Q3 than in Q2, but I do not know exactly how much better, but let us assume that it is not under $ 0.10 per gallon, and calculate with the figure of production applied for the quantity Pacific Ethanol produced in Q2.
$0.10 * 34,800,000 = $3,480,000 (better than Q2)
Then the operating capacity in Q3 is 2,0M gallons bigger than Q2 (not less), and can we calculate on that? - I do not think we can, but if we say a conservative margin in Q2 was $ 0.15 per gallon and in Q3 is $ 0.10 higher, and then a calculation will look like this:.
$0.25 * 2,000,000 = $500,000 (better than Q2) ... it will be a higher amount, but I do it conservatively.
Pacific Ethanol announced May 29 in Q2 Magic Valley plant begins production of corn oil, and then there was not corn oil production in the two month April and May – just one month corn oil production in Q2, and it was in June. Now in Q3 Magic Valley is producing corn oil in July, August and September.
There are new installations at the Magic Valley and Stockton who earn $ $, and when earnings are production dependent, I would assume that the two 60MGY plants running at MAX operating capacity, and Columbia is the "unit" that adjusts the "capacity" to 92% for 3 plants vs. capacity.
Then Magic Valley is producing 15,000,000 gallons in Q3 and the feedstock is 5,357,143 bushels. If Magic Valley is producing (in the beginning) 0.5 pound of corn oil per bushel, it will be 2,678,572 pound of corn oil in Q3 and with a price per pound $0.38 it will be $0.38 * 2,678,572 = $1,017,857 in Q3
If there was one month with corn oil production in Q2 = $1,017,857 / 3 = $339,286 in June Q2
Then Q3 will be better with 2 month, and it will be:
$1,017,857 / 3 * 2 = $678,571 (better than Q2) from the corn oil production at Magic Valley plant.
Then we do have the cellunators installed and operating at the Stockton plant. You can hear NK give this information 6:15 in the Q2 webcast July 25 – I do not know when Stockton did start their Cellunators, but I know that much, the Cellunator was not operating and earning $$ in Q2, and for Q3 I will calculate the amount for only two month. The Cellunators will increase the ethanol yield at the Stockton plant with 3.5%
15,000,000 gallons per Q / 100 * 3.5 = 525,000 gallons (without more feedstock use) – a conservative average gallon price in Q3 is $2.50 per gallon, and then the calculation will look like $2.50 * 525,000 gallons = $1,312,500 per Q, and the two month operating in Q3 will be:
$1,312,500 / 3 * 2 = $875,000 (better than Q2).
Then I have said Magic Valley is producing at capacity 15,000,000 gallons per Q (no need to lower your corn oil production) and Stockton is producing at capacity 15,000,000 gallons per Q (no need to lower your income from the cellunators, and no need to transport more ethanol down to California from Columbia than you need, so Columbia plant is a 10,000,000 gallons per Q plant, but is only producing 6,800,000 at the moment (maybe more) in total 36,800,000 gallons from the 3 plants = 92% as said above.
Then we can figure out how much better Q3 will be from the above things vs. Q2
A. $3,480,000 from a better margin
B. $ 500,000 from a better margin and higher operating capacity
C. $ 678,571 from corn oil production at the Magic Valley plant
D. $ 875,000 from the cellunators at the Stockton plant
Then the total from A,B,C,D will be $5,533,571 (and it is better than Q2)!
6. Consideration of approval of a Stipulation of Assessed Value for Pacific Ethanol Madera, LLC, 10R090.,
Motion: APPROVE STIPULATION OF ASSESSED VALUE, LAND VALUE SET AT $841,518.00, STRUCTURE VALUE SET AT $4,154,400.00, FIXTURES VALUE SET AT $22,791,900.00, PERSONAL PROPERTY VALUE SET AT $2,960,650.00, WITH A TOTAL VALUE SET AT $30,748,468.00
Moved by Member Gonzalez, seconded by Member Minney.
Vote: Motion carried 3-0.
Yes: Member Rowe; Member Gonzalez; Member Minney
Assessment Appeals Board - Aug 14th, 2013
---------
5 days ago - CASSIA COUNTY COMMISSIONERS. ... The BOE also moved to accept Pacific Ethanol's recommendation for valuation of $56,000,000. ... of Law and decision regarding the appeal of Pacific Ethanol Magic Valley, LLC.
CASSIA COUNTY COMMISSIONERS SYNOPSIS OF MINUTES JULY 2013 - News Journal: Legal Notices
In 2009, the plant’s valuation was reduced from nearly $90 million to $45 million by the county’s board of equalization.
5 days ago - CASSIA COUNTY COMMISSIONERS. ... The BOE also moved to accept Pacific Ethanol's recommendation for valuation of $56,000,000. ... of Law and decision regarding the appeal of Pacific Ethanol Magic Valley, LLC.
CASSIA COUNTY COMMISSIONERS SYNOPSIS OF MINUTES JULY 2013 - News Journal: Legal Notices
In 2009, the plant’s valuation was reduced from nearly $90 million to $45 million by the county’s board of equalization.
Neeley ~ Net Margins Range for the 3rd Quarter by Day
Jul 2 ~ net gain of 14.7 cents per gallon
Jul 12 ~ net profit of 9.2 cents per gallon of ethanol produced
Jul 15 ~ net profit of 23 cents per gallon
Jul 17 ~ 27.2 cents per gallon
Jul 25 ~ net gain of 22.7 cents per gallon
Jul 29 ~ a gain of 16 cents per gallon
Aug 2 ~ net gain of 30.2 cents per gallon
Aug 6 ~ net gain of 30.2 cents per gallon
Aug 8 ~ net gain of 26.2 cents per gallon
Aug 17 ~ net gain of 20.4 cents per gallon
Aug 28 ~ net gains of 22.3 cents per gallon
Aug 30 ~ net gains to 28.4 cents per gallon
Sep 3 ~ net gain of 27.4 cents per gallon
Sep 10 ~ net gain of 37.2 cents per gallon
Sep 13 ~ net profit of 40 cents per gallon
Sep 18 ~ net gain of 27.6 cents per gallon
Sep 20 ~ net gain of 30.2 cents per gallon
Sep 23 ~ net gain of 29.7 cents per gallon
Sep 24 ~ net gains of 30.2 cents per gallon
DTN Daily Ethanol Comments
www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=RENEWABLE_FUELS_PAGE_FREE
Aug 1, 2013 Deemed Complete Date: August 1, 2013. Certified
LCFS Pathway Method 2B
ARB Staff Summary: Pacific Ethanol Columbia, Oregon
www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/2a2b/apps/pe-col-sum-071513.pdf
ARB Staff Summary: Pacific Ethanol Magic Valley, Idaho
www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/2a2b/apps/pe-mv-sum-071513.pdf
-----------
Previous Aplications
www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/2a2b/apps/pe-col-rpt-071513.pdf
www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/2a2b/apps/pe-mv-071513.pdf
Q3-13 Pacific Ethanol
We tell each other that Q3 will be better than Q2. I agree, and now I will say why.
In Q2 the operating capacity was 87% = 34,8M gallon
In the Q2 webcast July 25 you can hear NK say the operating capacity Q3 is 92% and increasing = 36,8M gallon – that is plus 2,0M gallon in Q3 vs. Q2 (maybe more, because NK did say “and increasing”).
The operating margin is much better in Q3 than in Q2, but I do not know exactly how much better, but let us assume that it is not under $ 0.10 per gallon, and calculate with the figure of production applied for the quantity Pacific Ethanol produced in Q2.
$0.10 * 34,800,000 = $3,480,000 (better than Q2)
Then the operating capacity in Q3 is 2,0M gallons bigger than Q2 (not less), and can we calculate on that? - I do not think we can, but if we say a conservative margin in Q2 was $ 0.15 per gallon and in Q3 is $ 0.10 higher, and then a calculation will look like this:.
$0.25 * 2,000,000 = $500,000 (better than Q2) ... it will be a higher amount, but I do it conservatively.
Pacific Ethanol announced May 29 in Q2 Magic Valley plant begins production of corn oil, and then there was not corn oil production in the two month April and May – just one month corn oil production in Q2, and it was in June. Now in Q3 Magic Valley is producing corn oil in July, August and September.
There are new installations at the Magic Valley and Stockton who earn $ $, and when earnings are production dependent, I would assume that the two 60MGY plants running at MAX operating capacity, and Columbia is the "unit" that adjusts the "capacity" to 92% for 3 plants vs. capacity.
Then Magic Valley is producing 15,000,000 gallons in Q3 and the feedstock is 5,357,143 bushels. If Magic Valley is producing (in the beginning) 0.5 pound of corn oil per bushel, it will be 2,678,572 pound of corn oil in Q3 and with a price per pound $0.38 it will be $0.38 * 2,678,572 = $1,017,857 in Q3
If there was one month with corn oil production in Q2 = $1,017,857 / 3 = $339,286 in June Q2
Then Q3 will be better with 2 month, and it will be:
$1,017,857 / 3 * 2 = $678,571 (better than Q2) from the corn oil production at Magic Valley plant.
Then we do have the cellunators installed and operating at the Stockton plant. You can hear NK give this information 6:15 in the Q2 webcast July 25 – I do not know when Stockton did start their Cellunators, but I know that much, the Cellunator was not operating and earning $$ in Q2, and for Q3 I will calculate the amount for only two month. The Cellunators will increase the ethanol yield at the Stockton plant with 3.5%
15,000,000 gallons per Q / 100 * 3.5 = 525,000 gallons (without more feedstock use) – a conservative average gallon price in Q3 is $2.50 per gallon, and then the calculation will look like $2.50 * 525,000 gallons = $1,312,500 per Q, and the two month operating in Q3 will be:
$1,312,500 / 3 * 2 = $875,000 (better than Q2).
Then I have said Magic Valley is producing at capacity 15,000,000 gallons per Q (no need to lower your corn oil production) and Stockton is producing at capacity 15,000,000 gallons per Q (no need to lower your income from the cellunators, and no need to transport more ethanol down to California from Columbia than you need, so Columbia plant is a 10,000,000 gallons per Q plant, but is only producing 6,800,000 at the moment (maybe more) in total 36,800,000 gallons from the 3 plants = 92% as said above.
Then we can figure out how much better Q3 will be from the above things vs. Q2
A. $3,480,000 from a better margin
B. $ 500,000 from a better margin and higher operating capacity
C. $ 678,571 from corn oil production at the Magic Valley plant
D. $ 875,000 from the cellunators at the Stockton plant
Then the total from A,B,C,D will be $5,533,571 (and it is better than Q2)!
What I think is, Pacific Ethanol is above 92% operating capacity, because the company earn more $$ from ethanol gallons they produce themselves, than from third-party gallons. When the company was in the situation where they was losing $ per gallon the produced, it was a good idea buying third-party gallons to cover their customer contracts, but now with earnings per gallons they produce, it is a bad idea with third-party gallons instead gallons they can produce themselves.
So I think NK is at operating capacity now or close to, and then offsets in third-party ethanol.
Then it can be better than the above Q3 $5,533,571 better than Q2 (everything else would be stupid).
But anyway ... Q3 will be a lot better than the Q2
Courtisy of stock '
-----
For PEIX,
the model that I use is as follow
o Revenue 2.8 * CA ethanol spot price
o Cost : (Cash Corn - 25% cash corn for WDG revenue )
o Gross Margin per gallon = rev minus cost above / in-house gallons
o Operational and Interest = 48c 'gallon
o Profits/gallon = grosss margins/allon - 48c/gallon.
o add some corn-oil profits ... for now 5c/gallon of corn oil ( not the same volume as above since not 100% corn oil yet).
Try it, as a guess.
For the quarter, if September is computed with today's cost and revenue,
and assuming Jul and Aug are done... I get 50c/share earnings on 14.4 mil shares..
Courtisy of elahens
PEIX Article Series B Holder/No Diluting before Q3
Sep 18, 2013, 2:32pm PDT
Pacific Ethanol buys time with preferred shareholders
Mark Anderson
Staff Writer-
Sacramento Business Journal
Sacramento-based Pacific Ethanol Inc.secured an agreement with holders of the company’s Series B convertible preferred stock to take 196,784 shares of common stock in lieu of $731,492 in cash.
The conversion represents partial payment for accrued and unpaid dividends.
In return for the exchange, the preferred stock shareholders have agreed to not exercise shareholder rights on unpaid dividends through March 31, 2015.
As of Sept. 12, the company’s preferred shareholders are owed a total of $4.4 million in accrued and unpaid dividends.
Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX) is a leading producer and marketer of low-carbon renewable fuels. The company sells ethanol to oil companies and gasoline marketers who blend ethanol into gasoline. It also sells other products from ethanol production, including corn oil and wet distillers grain, which are nutritious animal feeds.
Launched in 2003, the company was cofounded by Bill Jones, former Secretary of State and a high-profile Central Valley farmer.
Pacific Ethanol buys time with preferred shareholders - Sacramento Business Journal
CME Group Ethanol Outlook Report - USDA raises corn production estimate to record despite drought
Monday, September 16, 2013
Including DDGS, the Dec corn for ethanol crush margin 66.2 cents/gal.
USDA raises corn production estimate to record despite drought -- The USDA in last Thursday’s WASDE report raised its U.S. 2013/14 corn production estimate by +0.6% to a new record high of 13.843 billion bushels from August’s estimate of 13.763 billion bushels. That production estimate was 1.4% above the market consensus of 13.65 billion bushels. The upward revision was mainly due to the USDA’s hike in its yield estimate to 155.3 from 154.4 bushels per acre, which was stronger than market expectations for a cut to 153.9 bushels per acre. The USDA’s higher yield estimate was prompted mainly by stronger yields in the southern corn-growing areas of the U.S. The USDA’s estimate suggests that it does not see a big impact from the recent drought on yields in the major central-U.S. corn-growing states. That would be good news for the U.S. ethanol industry, which needs a big corn crop to keep corn input prices low.
Yet, there are still some risks for the U.S. corn crop. The USDA next month may yet reduce yield and production estimates due to the drought. In addition, only 9% of the crop was mature as of Sep 8 due to the late-spring planting, which is well behind the 5-year average of 28%. That makes the U.S. corn crop more vulnerable to frost damage in coming weeks.
U.S. ethanol production rebounds from 5-month low -- U.S. ethanol production in the week ended Sep 6 rose by +3.5% w/w to 848,000 barrels per day, rebounding higher from the 5-month low of 820,000 bpd posted in the third week of August (see charts on p. 17). Meanwhile, U.S. ethanol inventories in the past two reporting weeks moved sideways and were at 16.269 million bbls in the week ended Sep 6. That was a relatively tight level at only +5.3% above the 4-year low posted in June, suggesting that ethanol demand remains relatively strong.
Ethanol Market Action -- Oct ethanol futures prices week fell sharply to post a contract low and close the week down 11.1 cents (-5.9%) at $1.774 per gallon. Ethanol prices posted a new 3-year low on the nearest-futures chart. Bearish factors included the -2.0% sell-off in Dec corn prices, the -2.9% sell-off in gasoline prices, the sharp +3.5% rise in ethanol production in the latest reporting week, and heavy technical selling with the new contract low.
Ethanol/Gasoline -- Oct gasoline futures prices have fallen fairly sharply over the past two weeks and closed last week down -8.41 cents (-2.9%) at $2.7696 per gallon. The main bearish factor has been the greatly reduced chance of a U.S. military strike on Syria after Congress balked at approving a strike and after the U.S. and Russia agreed on a plan for Syria to give up control of its chemical weapons. Oct ethanol prices last Friday closed at a steep -99.6 cent discount to Oct gasoline prices.
Ethanol/Corn -- Dec corn futures prices last week fell to a new 1-month low and are only modestly above the 3-year low posted in early August. Dec corn prices last week closed down -9.25 cents (-2.0%) at $4.59 per bushel. Corn prices fell after last Thursday’s bearish USDA report where the USDA raised its U.S. corn production estimate by +0.6% to a record of 13.843 billion bushels, suggesting the USDA sees only a modest impact from the recent drought. The Dec ethanol-corn crush margin last week fell by -2.5 cents to -2.9 cents/gal. Including DDGS, the Dec corn for ethanol crush margin fell by -3.5 to 66.2 cents/gal.
www.insidefutures.com/article/1040522/CME%20Group%20Ethanol%20Outlook%20Report%20-%20USDA%20raises%20corn%20production%20estimate%20to%20record%20despite%20drought.html
to Good news! Dividend for PEIX shareholder are coming by johnnybegood756 •Sep 12, 2013 12:08 PM
*** Humm, my guess is new offering should come to pay dividend to MrKoehler with share as low as possible. When this will be completed, then we should join the party. I can be wrong and I wish to be wrong but that's my reading of the legal paper given by the company. ***
Good Guess Johnny
~ Filing Date: 9/13/2013 Form Type: 424B5 Prospectus ~ 196,784 Shares of Common Stock
The shares of common stock are being offered solely to holders of our Series B Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock, or Series B Preferred Stock, in satisfaction of a portion of the amount of accrued and unpaid dividends on shares of outstanding Series B Preferred Stock. The shares of common stock are being offered solely to the holders of our Series B Preferred Stock at a negotiated offering price of $3.72 per share.
PACIFIC ETHANOL, INC. 424B5 9/13/2013
secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001019687-13-003580%2Etxt&FilePath=%5C2013%5C09%5C13%5C&CoName=PACIFIC+ETHANOL%2C+INC%2E&FormType=424B5&RcvdDate=9%2F13%2F2013&pdf=
www.allendale-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/ethanol%20margin.jpg
www.allendale-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/ethanol%20margin.jpg
www.allendale-inc.com/weekly-ethanol-update-7/
Platts 6Sep2013 ~ WEEKLY WRAP:Ethanol production margin jumps to highest level in over 21 months
www.platts.com/latest-news/agriculture/houston/weekly-wrap-ethanol-production-margin-jumps-to-21525195
The estimated weekly production margin for a typical US Midwest dry-mill ethanol plant jumped 22.99 cents, or 28.75%, this week to 102.99 cents/gal, according to a Platts estimate based on a Friday review of data.
The estimated weekly ethanol production margin rose for the fourth consecutive week. The last time the margin was any higher was on November 25, 2011, when it was 119.23 cents/gal.
The estimated weekly ethanol production margin has almost tripled since July 26, when it was 37.92 cents/gal.
This week's increase in the estimated weekly ethanol production margin was the result of a sizable drop in the cost of corn combined with a higher ethanol price.
The weekly average estimated delivered feedstock corn cost fell for the first time in five weeks, dropping 59.24 cents, or 9.32%, to $5.7621/bushel, the lowest level in almost 21 months. It had not been this low since December 16, 2011, when it was $5.6972/bushel.
Sources attributed the weaker corn price to improving prospects for the US corn harvest, which could be the most bountiful in years.
The weekly average estimated dried distillers grain byproduct price, however, rose for the third week in a row as it nudged 8 cents higher to a six-week high of $223.80/st on weaker ethanol production, analysts said, which tightened the supply of dried distillers grains in the marketplace.
Ethanol production for the reporting week that ended August 30 edged down 1,000 b/d to 819,000 b/d, the lowest level in five months, weekly US Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday.
The estimated denaturant cost reversed course after three weeks of gains, decreasing 3.23 cents to a three-week low of $2.1635/gal, while the estimated natural gas cost gained 10 cents to $3.69/MMBtu.
The denaturant cost was based on the weekly average of the Platts natural gasoline assessment at the Conway, Kansas, hub, while the gas cost was based on the September Platts Chicago ANR 7 pipeline monthly index.
The estimated ethanol price used in calculating the margin was the weekly average of the Platts Chicago Argo ethanol assessment, which rose 1.31 cents to a 13-week high of $2.6694/gal, the fifth consecutive week of gains, on increasingly tight supply, sources said.
US Midwest ethanol stocks fell by 77,000 barrels for the reporting week that ended August 30 to 4.86 million barrels, the lowest level recorded by the EIA since it started tracking ethanol inventories in the reporting week that ended June 4, 2010.
Overall, US ethanol stocks in the same time period shrank 34,000 barrels to an eight-week low of 16.216 million barrels, EIA data showed Wednesday.
The estimated production margin for a typical dry-mill ethanol plant was calculated by weighing data from Platts and government agencies, including average delivered corn cost, dried distiller grain prices, natural gas prices, certain blending costs and ethanol prices.
Fixed-cost calculations were based on a 50 million gal/year-capacity Midwestern plant with 32 employees working at an average salary of $47,300/year.
Platts 6Sep2013 ~ WEEKLY WRAP:Ethanol production margin jumps to highest level in over 21 months
www.platts.com/latest-news/agriculture/houston/weekly-wrap-ethanol-production-margin-jumps-to-21525195
The estimated weekly production margin for a typical US Midwest dry-mill ethanol plant jumped 22.99 cents, or 28.75%, this week to 102.99 cents/gal, according to a Platts estimate based on a Friday review of data.
The estimated weekly ethanol production margin rose for the fourth consecutive week. The last time the margin was any higher was on November 25, 2011, when it was 119.23 cents/gal.
The estimated weekly ethanol production margin has almost tripled since July 26, when it was 37.92 cents/gal.
This week's increase in the estimated weekly ethanol production margin was the result of a sizable drop in the cost of corn combined with a higher ethanol price.
The weekly average estimated delivered feedstock corn cost fell for the first time in five weeks, dropping 59.24 cents, or 9.32%, to $5.7621/bushel, the lowest level in almost 21 months. It had not been this low since December 16, 2011, when it was $5.6972/bushel.
Sources attributed the weaker corn price to improving prospects for the US corn harvest, which could be the most bountiful in years.
The weekly average estimated dried distillers grain byproduct price, however, rose for the third week in a row as it nudged 8 cents higher to a six-week high of $223.80/st on weaker ethanol production, analysts said, which tightened the supply of dried distillers grains in the marketplace.
Ethanol production for the reporting week that ended August 30 edged down 1,000 b/d to 819,000 b/d, the lowest level in five months, weekly US Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday.
The estimated denaturant cost reversed course after three weeks of gains, decreasing 3.23 cents to a three-week low of $2.1635/gal, while the estimated natural gas cost gained 10 cents to $3.69/MMBtu.
The denaturant cost was based on the weekly average of the Platts natural gasoline assessment at the Conway, Kansas, hub, while the gas cost was based on the September Platts Chicago ANR 7 pipeline monthly index.
The estimated ethanol price used in calculating the margin was the weekly average of the Platts Chicago Argo ethanol assessment, which rose 1.31 cents to a 13-week high of $2.6694/gal, the fifth consecutive week of gains, on increasingly tight supply, sources said.
US Midwest ethanol stocks fell by 77,000 barrels for the reporting week that ended August 30 to 4.86 million barrels, the lowest level recorded by the EIA since it started tracking ethanol inventories in the reporting week that ended June 4, 2010.
Overall, US ethanol stocks in the same time period shrank 34,000 barrels to an eight-week low of 16.216 million barrels, EIA data showed Wednesday.
The estimated production margin for a typical dry-mill ethanol plant was calculated by weighing data from Platts and government agencies, including average delivered corn cost, dried distiller grain prices, natural gas prices, certain blending costs and ethanol prices.
Fixed-cost calculations were based on a 50 million gal/year-capacity Midwestern plant with 32 employees working at an average salary of $47,300/year.
Q3 will be better than Q2,Earnings Whisper ®:Release Date
Release Date: [not confirmed] 10/23/2013 After Close Expected Time 4:35 PM ET
Q3 will be better than Q2
put this in your goog search field around Oct. 10th ~
Notice of Proposed Award Grant Solicitation PON-13-601
(just sayen,ya may see something unexpected around then)
I believe they are Setting Up Madera for Advanced Bio Fuel
and they Won't Need to Dilute to Do It
The CEC Funding is being Judged by 2 Main things
1.) Increasing Existing CA. Production
Madera being Mothballed,No One Can Bring 40MG Online Other than PEIX
2.) How Much It Lowers the Carbon Intensity as compaired to fossil fuel,with an 80.1 Carbon Intensity Minimum.
(Madera Already Priduces 80.1)
(I Listened to the Webcast Of the Advanced Bio Fuel funding Q&A)
Not to Many Happy Faces asking Questions,None Sounded like they Qualified.
Didn't Recognize Any PEIX Employees asking Questions
it's 1 and 1/2 hrs long and has a small slide show
CEC Awardee Funding gets Voted On at Oct. 9th CEC Meeting according to the Webcast.And Must Start In November.
the Granary $ Would Cover the Other 1/2 Matching Funds for the Conversion.
Bill Jones did pay $5,100,000 for the cilos and rail track (the Madera place ave 12)
http://madera.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=17&clip_id=687&meta_id=146489
http://www.professionalagmarketing.com/images/E0176001/EthanolMarginSheet.pdf
look at the #1 Sticky to Ref: Margins
this just in,GERS is a SCAM
Form 10-Q for GREENSHIFT CORP
14-Aug-2013
We owe about $24 million in debt to YA Global, all of which is due on December 31, 2013.
52 Week Low !!!
Toilet paper.
GERS:We owe about $24 million in debt to YA Global
Form 10-Q for GREENSHIFT CORP
14-Aug-2013
We owe about $24 million in debt to YA Global, all of which is due on December 31, 2013.
biz.yahoo.com/e/130814/gers10-q.html
$1.58 per bushel,$0.57 per gallon~Ethanol Plant Margin Worksheet
www.professionalagmarketing.com/images/E0176001/EthanolMarginSheet.pdf
Pacific Ethanol seeks way to reopen Madera plant
Fresno Business Journal ?- 18 hours ago
Pacific Ethanol seeks way to reopen Madera plant
Published on 09/05/2013 - 1:37 pm
Written by John Lindt
Pacific Ethanol is exploring a business partner to operate its Madera granary while the Sacramento energy company restarts ethanol production.The Madera County Planning Commission has approved a tentative parcel map split requested by Pacific Ethanol in July allowing the sale of the granary next to the idle ethanol plant on Avenue 12 near Madera.
The granary has also been idled since the ethanol plant shut down in January 2009 after operating for less than three years. The whole acreage was a lumber mill that closed down in 1995.
In its parcel map application, Pacific Ethanol asked that the 137-acre parcel be split to allow the granary and the huge loop track that covers most of the property to be on one parcel and the 40-million-gallon ethanol plant on the other. Currently, a conveyor belt crosses the parcel. The train track infrastructure allows 100-car trains brimming with corn to be parked to unload at the feed mill. The granary will in turn feed the ethanol plant. But the granary units could do much more, the application says.
”While the current owner has handled all grain deliveries necessary to operate the ethanol plant, the granary has a much greater unused capacity and a feed mill,” says a county staff report. Pacific Ethanol “wants to sell off Parcel 2 to a party with expertise in grain handling and feed production.”
The county approved the tentative map, but Pacific Ethanol has yet to file a final map application because that would imply a buyer is at hand.
The idea is not to dispose of the facility to raise cash, but to invite an operator to participate in a business deal.
Pacific Ethanol spokesperson Paul Koehler says this step is preliminary, but it “sets the stage for what the company hopes to do — reopen the Madera Pacific Ethanol plant.”
“We’re getting closer,” he said. Ethanol-making margins have improved from last year.
Koehler says that “2012 was a record bad year for our industry with strong oversupply and high corn prices” due to the drought. By early 2013 things turned around and by Q2 there was a better balance as the company reported its first profit in years.
“We will definitely reopen the plant,” he said, but won’t say just when they will pull the trigger. ”We want to make sure we can keep producing,” noting that “California can use the ethanol.”
Besides exploring a sale of the adjacent granary, Koehler says they would install corn oil-making technology at the ethanol plant prior to reopening — something they have done at several of their plants.
But as of now Koehler says they are not working with a buyer for the granary, although operating a granary separately from the ethanol plant “is a model used by others in the Midwest and makes sense.”
“We need to find the right player to work with,” he added.
The county staff report says if both enterprises come back to life, it could add 30 jobs at each for a total of 60 new jobs for Madera County.
-------------
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. Website ~
Plant Positions Maintenance Manager - Madera, CA September 4, 2013
Maintenance Manager - Madera, CA September 4, 2013
We are currently seeking candidates for the following positions. These are exciting opportunities and our organization is experiencing tremendous growth. We are looking for dependable, long-term employees for this, as well as other opportunities in the future.
Plant Positions
Maintenance Manager - Madera, CA
September 4, 2013
Maintenance Mechanic - Boardman, OR
June 21, 2013
Production Operator - Burley, ID
April 30, 2013
www.pacificethanol.net/site/index.php/careers/
GERS Moving Up On the NEWS!!!! - 0.0001(- 14.29%)
GreenShift Corporation (GERS) -OTC Markets
0.0006
- 0.0001
(- 14.29%)
Pacific Ethanol Explores Sale Of Madera Granary
“Were Getting Closer To Reopening The Ethanol Plant ”
Madera County Planning Commission approved a tentative parcel map split requested by Pacific Ethanol in July allowing the sale of the granary next to the idle ethanol plant on Ave 12 near Madera.
The granary is also idled since the ethanol plant shut down in January 2009 after operating for less than 3 years. The whole acreage was a lumber mill that closed down in 1995.
In their parcel map application Pacific Ethanol asked that the 137 acre parcel be split to allow the granary and the huge loop track that covers most of the property to be on one parcel and the 40 million gallon ethanol plant on the other. Currently a conveyor belt crosses the parcel. The train track infrastructure allows 100 car unit-trains brimming with corn to be parked to unload at the feed mill. The granary will in turn feed the ethanol plant. But the granary units could do much more the application says.
”While the current owner has handled all grain deliveries necessary to operate the ethanol plant,the granary has a much greater unused capacity and a feed mill” says a county staff report. Pacific Ethanol “wants to sell off Parcel 2 to a party with expertise in grain handling and feed production.”
The county approved the tentative map but Pacific Ethanol has yet to file a a final map application because that would imply a buyer is at hand.
Getting Closer
The idea is not to dispose of the facility to raise cash or something but to invite an operator to participate in a business deal.
Pacific Ethanol spokesperson Paul Koehler says this step is preliminary but it ”sets the stage for what the company hopes to do – reopen the Madera Pacific Ethanol plant.”
“We’re getting closer” he says since ethanol making margins have improved from last year.
Koehler says that “2012 was record bad year for our industry with strong oversupply and high corn prices” due to the drought. By early 2013 things turned around and by Q2 there was a better balance” as the company reported their first profit in years.
“We will definitely reopen the plant“ he assures but won’t say just when they will pull the trigger. ”We want to make sure we can keep producing” noting that “California can use the ethanol.”
Besides exploring a sale of the adjacent granary Koehler says they would install corn oil-making technology at the ethanol plant prior to reopening,something they have done at several of their plants.
Could Add 60 Jobs
But as of now Koehler says they are not working with a buyer for the granary although operating a granary separately from the ethanol plant”is a model used by others in the Midwest and makes sense.”
“We need to find the right player to work with.”
The county staff report says if both enterprises come back to life – it could add 30 jobs at each – 60 jobs for Madera County.
sierra2thesea.net/energy/pacific-ethanol-explores-sale-of-madera-granary
Here IS PEIXs Carbon Credits in BLACK and WHITE
OPEN the Link and Scole Down to Page 28 to
Put the Next Line In Your Google Chrome Search Field:
valleyair.org/busind/pto/erc/rptValidVOC.pdf
Pacific Ethanol Visalia Facility # S6707
57111 N West AVE
Fresno,CA 93711
Certificate Pollutant 1stQTR 2ndQTR 3rdQTR 4thQTR REDUCTION SITE
--------------------------------------------------------------------
S-4021-1 VOC 2,999 2,998 2,997 2,991 ROSEDALE HWY;STR 28/29S/27E
(They Get 3,000 Credits per Quarter)
Put this Next Line in Your Google Chrome Search Field
PFL MARKETS DAILY - Progressive Fuels Limited
Look at the Corn Crush Margin Chart,It Went Up So Fast in the Last 3 Day ~ That It Went Out thrue the Top Of the Chart.
It Looks Really Funny !
VIDEO: Wednesday Sector Leaders: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing, Music & Electronics Stores
Published On Wednesday, August 28, 2013 By 20 Minute Renewal Blog. Under: Entertainment. Tags: NASDAQ: CONNS INC, NASDAQ: PACIFIC ETHANOL INC, NASDAQ: SYNTHESIS ENERGY SYSTEMS INC, NYSE: HHGREGG INC
In trading on Wednesday, oil & gas refining & marketing shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 1.6%. Leading the group were shares of Synthesis Energy Systems (SYMX), up about 16.9% and shares of Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) up about 4.6% on the day.
presstubes.com/video-wednesday-sector-leaders-oil-gas-refining-marketing-music-electronics-stores/
OIL PRICE Rising Ethanol/Oil Spread,Increase Eth/Dilution Profitability for Refiners
Ethanol’s Discount to Gasoline Widens Most in Six Weeks
By Mario Parker - Aug 27, 2013
The Eth/Gasoline spread expanded 11.74 cents to 56.11 cents a gallon
GERS Customers Stopping Paying Royalties,NICE:-0
Finally an admission of the obvious that we have known for almost two years -- The royalties are no where near 20% and their clients are looking elsewhere.
"The continued infringement hinders CleanTech’s ability to license the technology to ethanol plant operators who consider using (or are currently using) the corn oil extraction technology. When CleanTech is able to successfully license the patents-insuit to a customer, it is at a substantially reduced rate than it would be but for the infringement. Worse still, the continued infringement may cause current licensees to reconsider their licenses."
It is hoped that these words directly from GERS will cause more objective evaluation of the data to understand the issues that we are facing. The numbers never supported the conclusion that 20% was in play; it is likely to be, on average, below 10%, and the "rebellion" of current licensees over royalties required them to be individually renegotiated. The "splendid performance" of GERS' technology was not the only issue driving these discussions as several have insisted. The tone of that statement is also informative. It is in the present tense which means that many ethanol producers are not currently convinced of the outcome of the MDL litigation here, at least in the short term (SJ, appeals, trial, appeals, award enforcement, etc.) This is what experienced intellectual property attorneys have stated as well, and this should layer some reality upon the unfounded near-term hopes and wishes.
Oh, if you think that you heard this before -- you have. We have a difficult road ahead, more so for the common shareholders, who stand on the brink of losing everything at any time. If you doubt this conclusion look at the PPS, the market is treating GERS as if it is a bankrupt company.
Chart ~ Accum/Dist Line Rising
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PEIX&p=D&st=2013-06-03&en=(today)&id=p90806178278
tpappa,you might want to ask elahens
he is very knowledgable about the industry,he has written articles
on PEIX on Seeking Alpha.
http://seekingalpha.com/author/eddy-lahens
Articles (8)
Pacific Ethanol: Market Growth and Increase in Production to the Rescue
Aug 28 2008, 08:31
he started becoming bullish after Q1,and he says madera will Open in sept/oct/nov
I am not Sure who will get the money,but the 15M gallon requirement leads me to believe calgren and pacific ethanol will get it.
put this next line in your google chrome search field and read it.
www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/PON-11-601/PON-11-601_Q_and_A.pdf
you can tell by the questions who is Asking them pretty much.
PEIX Asked Some.
This Is Where the Get the Matching Funds for Advanced Bio Fuel Grant
CA. Energy Commission Q&A On Advanced Bio Fuel Production Funding
Question # 28
Regaurding the Matching of Funds,Can the Aggregate Value of a Currently Operating Biofuel Plant be Considered?
Answer:Public and Private property including land,equipment,facilities(e.g. laboratory space) and most property can be counted towards matching share in portion to thier direct use for the proposed project.The Value of the match share contribution is based on documented or amortized over the term of the project,using standard accounting principals.The applicant must demonstrate the value of the real property,labor,and materials to be used as match share funding in direct proportion to the proposed project.
www.energy.ca.gov/contracts/PON-11-601/PON-11-601_Q_and_A.pdf
COMMERCIAL SCALE ADVANCED BIOFUELS PRODUCTION FACILITIES funding by the California Energy Commission Will Be Descided On August 28,2013
at the CEC Meeting
Announcement:The California Energy Commission’s (CEC) Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVT) has announced grant funding for commercial-scale, low-carbon advanced biofuels production facilities. Funding is available for projects to: 1) expand existing biofuels production facilities and/or 2) lower the carbon intensity of the fuels produced at existing biofuels production facilities.
Funding: Up to $9.3m. Maximum award is the lesser of $5m or 50% of total project cost. A 50% cost match is required.
Key Dates:
>Issued >4/9/2013
>Pre-Application Workshop >4/26/2013
>Question Deadline >4/29/2013
>Full Application Deadline >5/31/2013
>Anticipated Notice of Proposed Awards >July 2013
>Anticipated Agreement Start Date >November, 2013
Project Criteria: The following must be met:
>Projects at existing biofuel production facilities must expand or modify facilities to increase production capacity: and/or lower carbon intensity of produced fuels;
>All proposed projects must result in a biofuel with calculated carbon intensity at least 5% below the California Air Resources Board (ARB) Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) reference baselines for corn ethanol for gasoline substitutes (80.7 gCO2e/MJ) or soy biodiesel for diesel substitutes (83.25 gCO2e/MJ);
>Annual production capacity must be at least 15,000,000 gallons per year of the eligible biofuel.
>Eligible projects must mitigate environmental effects.
>Corn Stock is NOT an eligible feedstock. If using MSW as a feedstock, only the biogenic fraction of the waste stream is eligible.
Eligibility: Open to businesses, public agencies, vehicle and technology entities, public-private partnerships, and academic institutions. Applicants must have a business presence in California. (CEC has indicated that whether the facility itself will be required to be in located in CA will be answered at the workshop.)
For the purposes of this solicitation, eligible biofuels include:
>Diesel substitutes. Includes renewable diesel, biodiesel, or other suitable substitutes. Eligible feedstocks for diesel substitutes include waste-based biomass or other biogenic by-products, and purpose grown crops.
>Gasoline substitutes. Include ethanol, biobutanol, renewable gasoline, or other suitable substitutes. Eligible feedstocks for gasoline substitutes include waste-based biomass and purpose grown crops.
>Biomethane. Pre-landfilled waste-based biomass sources including, but not limited to agricultural residues, woody biomass and forest residues.
Application Overview: The full application is comprised of the following:
>Application Form
>Table of Contents
>Executive Summary (2 pgs.)
>Project Narrative
- Qualification of Team (30 pgs.)
- Technologies/Processes Used
- Market Viability
- Project Implementation
- Project Budgets
- Economic Benefits
- Sustainability
>Resumes (project team)
>Scope of Work
>Project Schedule
>Budget
>Budget Forms
>Support Letters (not counted against pg. limit)
>CEQA Compliance Information
>Location Photograph
>Health Impacts Information
>ARFVTP Funding Certification
Review Criteria: Applicants will compete based on selection criteria and are scored and ranked based on those criteria. The highest scoring applicants will be selected for awards until funds are exhausted. Scoring criteria and corresponding point allocations are:
- Qualifications of the Project Team, 15 Points Max
- Technology(ies) and Process(es) used in the proposed Commercial Scale Biofuels facility, 25 Points Max
- Market Viability, 15 Points Max
- Project Implementation, 45 Points Max
- Project Readiness, 45 Points Max
CEPIP Aug. 1st Notice
www.energy.ca.gov/2011-ALT-1/notices/2012-08-01_cepip_workshop_notice.pdf
EIA EthanolCrush Spread
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2012.08.31/corncrush.png
http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/8/20/1016842-13770230774397426-Tristan-R--Brown_origin.png
http://ycharts.com/companies/BIOF/chart/#/?series=calc:profit_margin,type:company,id:BIOF,,calc:profit_margin,type:company,id:PEIX,,calc:profit_margin,type:company,id:GPRE&maxPoints=650&format=real&endDate=06%2F30%2F2013&startDate=09%2F30%2F2011&zoom=1&recessions=false&chartView=
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=ZCU13&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&pct=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=ZKU13&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=
Ethanol Crush Spread, to 63 cents
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-23/ethanol-s-gain-narrows-gasoline-premium-and-lifts-crush-spread.html
The corn crush spread, or the difference between a gallon of ethanol and the corn needed to make it, rose to 63 cents, the highest level this year based on front-month contracts, data compiled by Bloomberg
August 21st Net Margins Before Fridays Big Move UP
http://www.professionalagmarketing.com/images/E0176001/EthanolMarginSheet.pdf
Ethanol Crush Spread Chart to August 16th
http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/8/16/7360901-13766888403803735-Robert-Wagner.jpg
GERS Lost Income from BIOF $4.3 million per year
1 Plant Not Producing,and Both Not Paying GERS
BioFuel Energy Corporation (BIOF)
In September 2012, when the Midwest drought was at its peak, the company idled its Minnesota plant; this was followed by large layoffs at the facility in February 2013 and the announcement that it would remain idled until at least the following autumn.
Worse news came in late March when BioFuel Energy announced that it was exploring "strategic alternatives" related to a default by one of its operating subsidiaries. The subsidiary's arrears totaled $8.2 million at the end of 2012, which was nearly equal to the company's total cash on hand at the time. This amount grew to $17.6 million by the end of Q2 2013. Furthermore, the company's current ratio had fallen from 2.35 at the beginning of 2012 to 0.2 a year later, greatly restricting its ability to repay its subsidiary's debt. Instead its lenders granted it a grace period until July 30, 2013, to negotiate the sale of one or both of its corn ethanol facilities.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1648762-the-short-case-for-biofuel-energy?source=yahoo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1648762-the-short-case-for-biofuel-energy?source=yahoo
"Pursuant to these lease agreements, the Operating Subsidiaries are paying approximately $4.3 million per year for the corn oil extraction systems."
OR Not Paying as the Case May Be
Source:SkunK http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/
FREE Level 2 Dutch,Remembering You Wanted It
http://www.level2stockquotes.com/level-2-stock-quotes.html