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Nothing surprises me anymore when it comes to price action of this stock. Let's see how the afternoon turns out.
$3.50 on the nose for 2 days while the overall market sold off? That was too obvious. The amazing part is we all play at the table knowing the game is rigged!
So then do you believe ALL of this has to do with op ex tomorrow?
I would have expected it to be there already. I am taking this as a good sign. Just wondering what op ex tomorrow has to do with it. $3.50 right on the nose.
Your right. I first saw it on Yahoo but now I just checked it on Ameritrade. None traded so far. My bad. Look at Yahoo finance. It has 951 traded.
951 Aug $6 calls again. What's the story with that? They close out on Fri.
No anguish just 6% (and a lot of money).
That was a brutal beating today. If this company ever comes through, there are some long-suffering longs that will have earned there reward.
Most of us here are long and think it is undervalued at these levels. That being said, Aria will sell off if the overall market continues downward. Your guess is as good as any as to where it stops. My guess is around 3 bucks is the bottom. If I wasn't over-invested in it already I would start moving in small tomorrow (likely another bad open) and add along the way. 1 year hold you will prob be looking at a substantial gain at a 15-20% long term cap gain rate. How's that?
By any chance are you one of those disgruntled board members who left the company in protest?
I find it interesting that there were so many Aug calls. Especially for a stock with no volume and pretty much down all day long.
Anyone notice all of the Aug calls bought today? All different strikes.
Why would Ariad allow the poison pill to expire without restoring a a new one? All reasonable answers are welcomed.
This had all the characteristics of a whale moving in on a position. I would say a fairly large one at that (i mil or more). Check it out now: vol died, price dropped .17 (now stable). Anyone see it differently?
Hey pally, I don't care what the reason is right now. It's nice to see her showing a lil strength again. Agreed?
Man those 2.5 calls were a no brainer. Gotta jump all over it when the market gives you a gift. Shoulda woulda coulda!
Perhaps the Vivus fda panel is drawing attention to the micro bios
Don
Haven't heard much from you on a potential buyout. What is your opinion? Would he sell Ariad or do you think they are going for the gusto with 534?
$15 seems reasonable. Would the Harvster let her go for a measly $1.6 bil? My opinion is that Mrk is obviously our best suitor. A 534 collaboration with another pharma might cloud things a bit.
Last reply. Oh really? Are they selling 1000 at a clip? I watch level II daily and I see nothing that suggests a whale is bailing. I have my bet placed. We will see who is right soon enough.
I think it's time people stopped taking the bait. We will see in the next 6-12 months who is holding the bag. He may be right after all. Apparently there are some pretty big fund managers that like our chances as well. All thats left now is for Aria to deliver the goods. Rida NDA, 534 trials, 534 partner could make some of us wealthy. Let's see.
Anyone have an idea when we should expect the final Rida trial results? I thought I saw February? Is that what we are looking at for the end of the trial? Any/all help is appreciated.
Thanks for the response. The Nov 2.5 call seems like the fairest of the bunch. After all this time I would hate to sell calls, have something big happen (you never know) and have my shares called away from me at a discount. I know the whole paid to wait concept is prudent, but I'm swinging for the upper deck. You never know what happens. I posted that I figured we would sell off, but not as bad as 2.58 in such a short time. Then again, this is Ariad and we have all seen this act before. Hopefully with a different ending this time.
GLTA
yeah I like the Nov 2.5 as well. The Aug 3 might be a little too close. When exactly do we expect Rida final news?
Where's our option guy? I'm looking at calls. I think I like the Nov 3's, 2.5's or 2's. Anyone else thinking about entering a call?
I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. Just wish I would have told me so! This stock is defenseless in a down market and w/o any significant news. Bought some puts but should have bought a ton of the 3's and 3.5's. I just hope we don't start flirting with $2.00. If we keep getting bad eco data we just might. This friggin sucks because this was very predictable. Oh well, we will have to wait for the big payday. Maybe some big pharma will make a run at her. Gotta be in it to win it.
Just for laughs, do you care to guess at a # the good Doctor might find worthy of his baby?
I remember you saying you thought the buyout # was somewhere between $1.5 bil-$2 bil. That would be wonderful for the shareholders and especially for the people who need the drugs (A big pharma like Mrk or Nvs could surely get them to market faster than Aria). I just don't see Berger selling Ariad. This is his life's work and I think he wants to see the finish line. My feeling is that any takeover would have to be hostile because the asking price would prob be too high.
Perhaps but I think you would agree that $10-$15 is completely within the realm of possibility in the next 6-12 months, no? That would sure put me (and many others here) in a great place. Oh my goodness, think of all the taxes I would have to pay! LOL
Maybe, but I don't think so. He sure knows alot about the company and there are soooooo many better shorts out there than Ariad. Plus, doesn't the trial end in February? He could wake up any day to a catastrophe! Who knows and who cares what his deal is. Like I said, he isn't telling me anything I don't know. I owned Genvec, but I also had HGSI. This is a speculative investment with a potential for significant gains. We shall see.
Then are you short the stock?
This is getting a little boring. If your point is that Rida can potentially fail in the final, then that is pretty much an obvious point and definitely understood by most of us. We all know that it is a possibility. If it wasn't a possibility, then many of us would be sitting in a mini-fortune right now. The problem I have with you is this:
1- Your posts (dating back to the old Yahoo board if you are that same poster) have almost always had a negative tone to them.
2- If you are so doubtful then why are you beating the drum for so long. If you are long you should sell. If you are short trying to scare people then you should move on because you are not convincing anyone left that the stock will be significantly higher fairly soon.
I think an enterprise value of 350 mil is pretty cheap. As do a couple of annalists and many of us here. Either way, let's move on because you are taking up space with the same dribble over and over again.
Question for all:
Disclosure: Been watching Aria since 1997. Owned some shares before the rise to 40's (didn't sell at the highs). Sold some when we were on the way down. Now own a ton of shares that I have been buying since $1 and up. I currently have a substantial gain (cost average in the $2's) and I am at the 1 year hold for a big % of my position. I have a big % of my portfolio in ARIA. I think the RIDA deal was prudent and necessary for the company. 534 looks to be a potential blockbuster. I love the long term perspective for the company, but don't like the near term for the overall market. I fear a near term share collapse as traders take off any investments that are deemed to be risky (as we have seen recently). I think many of us might be in this situation, so here are my questions:
What do you think of Aria's share price if we see a overall market decline?
Is anyone considering selling and hoping to buy back at a lower price?
What do you make of the current low volume?
I understand that there is a risk of missing some great news that propels the stock to a price significantly higher than $3.47.
Thanks and good luck too all.