Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
SeekingAlpha, Leeb on Underestimating China: a good read.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/243842-beware-of-underestimating-china?source=email_watchlist
"China has been first to recognize the danger of resource shortages down the road. Many of China's elite have backgrounds in engineering and science. Peak oil and Peak Coal have been seriously discussed by Chinese scientists in academic journals, which government leaders actually read. China understands its need to segue into alternative energy ... world's largest production of wind and solar energy ... it will become number one in nuclear energy as well. China's emphasis on growing real industries is one reason it survived the 2008 financial crisis better than the West."
"before the global financial crisis took hold Chinese interest rates were at 7.8%. The recent move back to 5.8% is hardly evidence the Chinese government is in a panic over a runaway economy ... the only segment of the inflation figures that has looked “out-of-control” in recent months has been food prices – particularly vegetables. Prices of non-food items are rising at an annual rate of only 2%."
"“What the commodity markets are telling us is that we’re living in a finite world, in which the rapid growth of emerging economies is placing pressure on limited supplies of raw materials, pushing up their prices.”
In other words, commodities are in a real, secular bull market, not a bubble."
NEP: Please post voting instruxns by private message to me. Earlier this month I tossed my shareholder voting mail and it went out with the trash. I guess that makes me one of those 60 percent lazy shareholders, LOL, but I want to see them move onwards, so I'll do my duty.
OK to be 95 percent invested? Good to hear because I'm 120% considering margin.
I think the collective wisdom is probably good on CCME here, not arguing that. I'm in LPH and NEP because they are in strong demand industries and their business models are easy to understand. LLEN same thing. LTUS because it is the most undervalued pharma out there, plus mostly makes prescription drugs not herbal remedies which could go in and out of being popular. Not to mention the new facility and uplist next year.
On my watch list, AERL, UTA, SIHI, ZSTN, CCCL. Had positions in these but got out with profits before things got worse in this space. Didn't get out of the energy sector, due to a gut feeling that the positive factors and news about oil and coal use should be more likely to bring a quick rebound this winter as opposed to other sectors. They will all bounce back sooner or later and I will re-enter positions in the watch list after another rate increase or SEC blow-up news event.
Maybe rename this as the "CCME board". Then we can have another board as "all other CGS stocks" to balance things out, LOL.
Seriously, it doesn't bother me, I just sift through for what I want to read.
That's quite a Christmas light show you have going with all those LCD monitors, BURRRPP! Here's hoping that the Holidays bring you bright green lights and dim-out all the red ones! My portfolio sure could use some light bulb change-outs right about now, LOL.
Happy Holidays! Thx for everyone's DD & opinions.
...Now if I could just convince The Grinch of WallStreet to please give back to me around 37 percent 2010 paper gains, which he stole after the November elections, leaving me with only around 7 percent. Jeez could have done just as well with dividends and grandma's AT&T.
NEP - noticed the green the other day from $5.31 to $5.74, then today from $5.43 to $5.50. It is very undervalued and the only fear is fear itself; i.e., fear of negative sentiment in the whole sector combined with fear of NEP not announcing some nice looking preliminary figures for this Q. Others feel the same way and post as much here and on Yahoo.
SEC cant investigate all,so cant exonerate all China companies by the same reasoning.
The trouble with this approach is that during this investigation, ALL news media outlets have jumped on the bandwagon with their toothless broad-brush condemnation and just about every single pundit is stating, "this sector is too risky you shouldn't invest here, get out of Dodge!"
So the result is effectively a highly efficient sector bashing, and althugh at the end of the investigation there could be some valuable new rules, and rightly so, but as far as clearing individual companies, no way does the SEC have the manpower to do a full DD on 300 US-listed companies. Am I correct here?
Meanwhile this whole thing is going to be drawn out as the SEC takes a long time to accomplish things. Look how long it took to settle the 2006 case.
It would be far better if SEC and Congress were to just implement new rules in stages, starting as soon as possible, not drawn out forever, beginning as soon as they come up with some definite recommendations for concrete and practicable rules for ALL US-listed companies. That way they quickly accomplish something beneficial to help everyone other than just helping shorts and helping longs to lose more money, the media attention would go away, and meanwhile SEC could continue behind the scenes trying to figure out if there are additional rules they could add to ensure integrity. Sort of implementation of the positive things in phases, which relieves pressure on prices at each juncture, and causes headache ONLY for the affected companies who cannot measure up to the new rules, but no headache for everyone else. And less media opportunity to bash for months on end, they just LOVE the opportunity to point out "danger" and increase ratings, helping the shorts.
This whole thing is making the shorts DIRECTLY richer, and also helping their careers by helping out congress, talk about double dipping.
OT: what triggered "risk-on" in early September and, aside from watching actual PPS start to ramp, what macro events or news markers seemed to have prefaced the beginning of the reversal in general investor sentiment?
Some say it was the Fed stirring up talk of renewed stimulus money. However, I think it had more to do with (1) China government sources and large investment companies tapered off the frequency of warnings about further interest rate rises and property inflation problems; (2) the upcoming election was coming on the news media radar; (3) the number of bear-camp macro-trend articles had reached pretty close to 100 percent on SeekingAlpha, TheStreet, MarketWatch, Bloomberg, and WallStreetJournal; and (4) China stocks had been sold down to P/E levels which for the month of August were so low they didn't seem to be able to entice further selling or PPS drop.
As far as clues, right after Labor Day the constant negative noise from the financial media outlets suddenly stopped and it seemed quiet as a mouse for a week. I noticed this in a Yahoo post I made on September 2nd:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?bn=110703&tid=1164&mid=1542
Since we are in such a downslide now, I thought I'd post that so I could gather feedback on how to spot a "true" bottom.
LTUS: SEC filing, dont panic, 1:2 rev.split
Risk on/off cycles: I bought fairly close to the top in late 2009/early 2010 - which was my first year branching out from traditional US stocks and mutual funds. Since the world-wide financial meltdown had just ended a few months earlier, looking at trends from trailing 12 month charts was unique and I didn't realize the cyclic aspects. But in late January 2010, after the market's reaction to China's rate increases, I sold a good portion of my positions after a 10-15 percent drop. Didn't venture back into sectors in China outside of oil stocks until this past September, when just about everything started sprouting green. Again around late November I dumped almost everything that wasn't energy once again. In hindsight I should have just gone to cash when everything I owned was up 20 percent to 70 percent, I would be 90K richer at this point.
JADA: I was one of the sheep who left the herd when the 10Q came out with zero income for what was supposed to be their best seasonal quarter. With seasonality thrown out the window, there was a lot of evidence that the mining business isn't accomplishing what it was supposed to be doing, and no evidence that plans to acquire companies/artisans to produce finished Jade products are anything but a dream. Didn't want to wait around to see what was going to happen to the residual 50 percent of my investment.
LTUS not affected by 40% price cut: Yahoo msg
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=te&bn=42886&tid=5445&mid=5445&tof=1&frt=2#5445
Posted by Guildcrantz
22-Dec-10 09:35 am
"I just received an email from Dr. Shen regarding the proposed price cuts in Chinese medicines.
Here is his reply,
"We are not affected by the latest price adjustment for pharmaceutical products in China. As for the future, it is hard to speculate becaus
Sorry for the unfinished message. I just want to say that it is hard for us to predict the government policy for the future, but we are not affected this time."
This should relieve the immediate concern.
Best,"
I understand Zester - When you look at the world through his myopic "short"-sighted glasses. Anything that increases the bottom line of LPH's revenues is fiction, meanwhile he "can see clearly" any factors - whether real, speculative, or pure fantasy - that he thinks could have a negative impact on EPS or PPS.
I think his entire brain has a "short"-circuit, he can't seem to think in any other manner. Try to find even ONE positive post on LPH out of 20 by Zester, good luck with that. Even during times of PPS growth, he tries to find something negative to say, although sometimes he just gives up and hides since no one will listen at that point.
LPH: Buy the Pain!!!
The reasons for the drop from mid-2.60s to low-2.50s to low-2.30s is event-driven:
The first drop was when the Navellier cattle herd were told by their leader to sell and two days later RedChip lowered their 12 mo. PPS target from $6.50 to $5.20.
The second drop was last week when RedChip announced a toothless-warrant conversion option combined with a dead-serious threat of future plans for expansion via dilution. (Although later RedChip tried damage control by stating they would not dilute "at these price levels", this did NOTHING to restore confidence because the future threat of dilution after PPS rises would clearly cancel any short-term bounce in PPS - although long term it could still be very bullish.)
The third drop was a response to the macro news about the SEC and congress investigating reverse mergers in general, which was amplified by articles in all the major media (Bloomberg, MarketWatch, WallStreetJournal, TheStreet) and a very specific bashing-for-ratings prime-airtime attack on LLEN yesterday by Herb Greenberg at CNBC, which scared the hell out of retail investors at the sheer power of the media and their puppetmasters from this example of how they can instantly correct any Chinese stock's PPS movement at their whim. As a result, many US-listed China microcaps were down 3% to 6% yesterday within a couple hours of seeing LLEN tank by 17%.
So my original prediction of holding the high 2.40s to low 2.50s obviously has been turned upside down by a change in LPH's company thesis - they are now planning near-term dilution - and changed by short term broad-based short attacks and negative articles resulting in sell-offs.
Right when you think things cannot get any worse -- BUY THE PAIN!!!!
LLEN: CNBC DD value added and mkt.value stolen --
I see both sides - investors love to hear all serious and balanced DD reports from any reliable source, yet when a report is "grandstanded" - i.e., presented in an abbreviated and unbalanced perspective just to get maximum ratings, then CNBCs financial reporters would have had reasonable expectations that this one-sided "report" clearly would have the effect of tanking the stock.
And given that knowledge, that real investors with real money would lose real savings invested in a chunk of LLEN's market cap upon their airing of this soundbite, CNBC should have taken steps to include a balanced persepective of the stock, not merely their standard "disclaimer" at the bottom of the screen. That disclaimer does NOT protect them from liability if they had reasonable expectations that many investors would still panic and sell the instant they saw the clip.
SEC should determine that CNBC knew a while back about LLEN's directors having "old skeletons in the closet" when Cramer recommended the sell on his shown on December 10, and should also investigate who on the show was told about this information BEFORE the show aired. The prime-airtime release of an extremely biased report while giving friends and insiders advanced notice clearly falls along the lines of insider trading, since by purchasing shorts or selling securities, these folks were able to guarantee profits BEFORE the news release.
Furthermore, since these claims are very old news, they have no bearing on accuracy of current financial statements or complaince with SEC standards.
By the way, it's all heresay, but someone on a message board (yahoo I believe) recently claimed they worked or knew someone at CNBC who said "Blame-Her" was short LLEN a couple weeks ago. And shortly after that was posted, a whole bunch of posts on Yahoo LLEN board which mentioned Cramer in various negative viewpoints were suddenly DELETED by the powers that be.....Hmmm... it is VERY RARE to see Yahoo posts deleted, so apparently someone in power had an agenda - it's not hard to connect the dots and speculate the deletion had something to do with the claim in one post about Cramer being short.
Also, this is WOULD NOT BE THE FIRST TIME GREENBERG got in trouble for bashing a company on the air; see the yahoo LLEN post describing the SEC's 2006 investigation of Herb after he bashed another company in an unbalanced/unfair manner:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=te&bn=106842&tid=9222&mid=9222&tof=1&frt=2#9222
This is just heresay, but I found a link (halfway down the page Cybertron88 said he thought Cramer shorted LLEN):
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?bn=106842&tid=9053&mid=9072
I recall reading the original message somewhere on Yahoo, it had something to do with a person claiming they worked at CNBC and knew of it, but of course it is still just heresay as whoever posted that was making an anonymous message board post.
Thanks for calling that out, I don't want to spread unsubstantiated rumors, so I edited message because I couldn't locate any specific posts on Yahoo where anyone said Cramer was short LLEN (thought I read that, but it wouldn't have mattered to me at that time).
However, LLEN was mentioned earlier by Cramer in a negative light, which is by itself not an issue: It was posted on Yahoo that on Friday December 10 Cramer told a viewer to sell LLEN:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?bn=106842&tid=8419&mid=8435
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?bn=106842&tid=8347&mid=8347
CNBC should really be investigated for market timing and short positions. Cramer recommended to a viewer on CNBC a couple weeks ago to sell LLEN, then CNBC comes out with mentioning LLEN as an example of the RM problems when they aren't even under investigation according to the SEC. And they intentionally tried to undermine credibility by talking about management background.
Because of the millions in market cap lost today by LLEN, the SEC should be requested to look into the personal brokerage accounts of EVERY CNBC employee and that of anyone they called or emailed in the last 10 days. Anyone who opened a short should be investigated as to what they knew and when.
And the money lost isn't just in LLEN - about half of my China stocks dropped within 90 minutes just by association.
CNBC should be investigated.
LLEN: my cost basis is $8.25 for 10K shares, so I didn't pull the trigger so easily, my stink bid was $9.50 and we didn't get close.
However, this whole RM investigation is rapidly creating a "smells bad by association" opportunity for any short with a big media outlet to do some damage. Pissed that quite soon it is going to be very difficult to sleep well at night not knowing what stock is going to be lynched the next day.
Didn't hear- just watching monitor, saw LLEN tank, scanned 4 message boards for a reason, saw post below about CNBC.
That landing was so hard LLEN did a super-ball bounce not a dead-cat bounce.
CNBC: SEC should investigate who at CNBC shorts BEFORE the broadcast, I'm dead serious.
LLEN reacts to CNBC: 11.40->10.70 in 30 seconds
Well I think Toups does encourage the release of PR news. LTUS, while not as opaque as, for example, NEP with few and far between news releases, was still not real frequent to give news releases. Toups behavior with LPH showed that when it was necessary to influence market sentiment the company will release news, whether it is a major new development or just a PR, it still helps. The reason I think Toups had something to do with it is because under LPH's former CFO Crane, the news releases did not come very often and quite often market sentiment tanked at times (for external reasons); yet IR did not seem to care. Toups may be prodding and poking RedChip for PR when he thinks it is needed. Now as far as Toups ability to manage investment money, financing, and expansion, I think LTUS is already doing just fine and Toups won't hurt.
But I am curious why the changing of the board of directors was so sweeping and not just one person at a time, anyone care to comment?
Shhh... just slowly accumulate lots of 1K shares so as not to disturb the MMs sleeping in the next room. They are sleeping off a warrant hangover until after New Year's.
LTUS at rock bottom entry PPS $1.05. 2011 will be a bonanza profit year for patient investors. Expect to see uplisting in the second half, big announcement throughout the media streams when the new facility opens, and a steady stream of new customer sales announcements that achieve new highs in revenues throughout the year. IMHO will go to $1.50 by March (was almost there in November), and second half of the year it will go to $1.90. NOT dead money, just buy when others are fearful, LTUS is very well positioned with a great prescription product pipeline, 70 percent hospital customers, brand new factory, and smart management.
AMCF: dilution prevented 5Qs EPS growing.
While it's nice AMCF has been growing revenues, I don't like the fact they do it in a way that the sharecount manages to grow just as fast so the EPS is still at 0.27-0.28 after five quarters.
Second, it might be true, but on the surface I am not as easily convinced that China's demand growth for maritime fuel consumption is quite as robust as land-side demand petroleum consumption growth. Fewer factors - landside you have factories, coal companies, cars, and trucks increasing demand, while seaside you have cargo and fishing ships, and as far as recreational boating, I think that industry is in its infancy days and won't start to represent a big percentage of the total consumption of maritime fuel for some time.
Third, I think the expansion of marina fuel supply is more difficult based on geography - with landside fuel storage you have 360 degrees of customers; while maritime fuel supply you have to be near a port where there is strong shipping industry - cargo or fishing.
So for now I'm sticking with landside wholesale distributors, as I think AMCF will grow more slowly and at higher acquistion costs relative to landside companies. JMHO.
LPH: Wont raise capital at current PPS levels
Longwei Petroleum Plans to Increase Storage Capacity in 2011
Company Has No Intention to Raise Capital at Current Price Levels
PR Newswire
TAIYUAN CITY, China, Dec. 17, 2010
TAIYUAN CITY, China, Dec. 17, 2010 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- Longwei Petroleum Investment Holding Ltd. (NYSE Amex: LPH) ("Longwei" or the "Company"), an energy company engaged in the storage and distribution of finished petroleum products in the People's Republic of China ("PRC"), today announced that it intends to expand its petroleum storage capacity in 2011 to keep up with growing demand for petroleum products in its region.
The Company wishes to clarify to its shareholders that it has no intention of raising capital at current price levels and would only issue shares in the future to make an accretive acquisition that would increase storage capacity, revenue and earnings.
"We are actively exploring strategic opportunities to take advantage of the growth in the marketplace. Our last acquisition has proven to be very successful, and we want to be prepared as we position the Company to expand our offering and customer base," stated Mr. Cai Yongjun, Chairman and CEO of Longwei.
The China Petroleum Planning and Engineering Institute recently announced that China plans to increase its oil storage capacity to 78 million cubic meters (approximately 67 million metric tons) by 2015. China had oil storage capacity of 53 million cubic meters at the end of last year and anticipates this to grow by 47% by 2015. China's two largest state-owned oil companies, CNPC and Sinopec, are expected to have 50 million cubic meters of storage capacity by 2015, while independent operators are expected to grow storage capacity to 28 million cubic meters by 2015. China has emphasized expanded oil storage and refinery capacity to increase its strategic reserves, which make it less vulnerable to market fluctuations and less susceptible to international oil conflicts.
Michael Toups, CFO of Longwei, said, "China is not only dependent on its two state-owned oil companies to increase storage capacity, but it needs independent operators to actively grow their businesses as well. We are well-positioned as the largest independent oil storage operator in Shanxi Province to continue to build our storage capacity and grow our distribution within the surrounding regions."
Sinopec - you must have some familiarity with refining cycles. In China there is often a squeeze on refineries between raw crude costs being high and the state setting selling costs for products. So just because the BBL price of oil is up, SNP and PTR can sometimes be under pricing pressure. All I am saying is you need to keep up on the industry news if you want long positions in refiners or state-owned petrochemical companies.
NEP- picked up 5K sh. at $5.31, woo hoo!
wow is this on sale, enough said!
Tax loss selling should abate since bill to extend tax cuts was signed by both house and senate.
Also, options expire today, so that should allow PPS to move up some.
Yep, I just looked it up to be sure. If I had doubled-down more than a month ago it would work, but doubling on NEP for an entire month would make me want to get my head examined, LOL.
Thanks Glen, I think I'll do that with NEP, haha
Tax loss selling: Wash rule prevents people from buying back within 30 days, so if you didn't sell before beginning of December, you won't be buying back the same equity on January 1, 2011. That may prevent a "first two weeks" buying rush.
"look out for the first two weeks in Jan. 2011. As happened in Jan. 2010, some of these may be zooming 50% to 100% from such deeply oversold levels"
Yahoo message board shorties come out of the woodwork like ugly gremlins whenever cold water is added to create a risk-off market.
Think I'm going to stick with this forum for a while, at least the shorts over here don't try to make up things and lie about their short positions.
UTA: and yet the market continues to ignore it, unbelievable.
I will re-enter this sometime soon, no doubt, really like the way this company has handled their growth.
LTUS news: Incredible that the market hasn't reacted yet either to today's news of several new contracts or to the news a few days ago that they will be selling land that will add 30 to 50 million to their cash onhand so they can complete their 2011 facility construction without any new financing and gear up production of all types of pharmaceuticals in the hot Beijing market.
This is clearly a symptom of how tough the China smallcap market is becoming right now. In fact, other than LTUS, all my other holdings are now in energy, as just about any good news in other sectors is getting completely ignored by the market. JMHO, GLTA.
PS - my watch list keeps growing.
LLEN: A breaking news report from Geraldo Rivera has uncovered a secret laboratory in the basement of a favorite TV station from which a popular talking head personally pulls all the levers that control every stock listed on US exchanges. To move a stock price up, he lip syncs on camera; to move it down, he does the same thing. His assistants include Techno Tin Man, Long Lion, Scarecrow Shortie, and Dorothy the innocent retail investor.
Hint: his name rhymes with "blame-her"
Bought more LLEN today, in case anyone is still short on LLEN after the 10Q release short term pullback, they may soon be in for a squeeze -- very cold winter in China, a huge jump in coal demand this year, constant articles everywhere on coal to spark investor interest, and LLEN is arguably the best managed US-listed China coal stock.
LPH: Long term, expansion is going to be good for LPH. In the interim, markets react negatively to financing costs but positively to news about how much money a new acquisition is gonna bring in, just look at the behavior of PUDA - up 3 bucks on acquiring 6 mines, down 3 bucks on the financing announcement, all part of the same acquisition plan that will ultimately help revenues in a year or two. LPH will be the same way.
Trying to profit from every quarter by which PPS goes up or down does add to profits compared to only making money on the net upward path. But now that everyone does that the volatility has become absurd and the fine line between traders and longs has almost completely disappeared.
I-Hub used to be for long equity holder's discussions. You'll begin to see the quality of forum discussions stoop to the same level of debasement as Yahoo if half the people on I-Hub start shorting the very same stocks the other half are long on. For one thing, the deception built into many of the shortie's posts on other forums gets irritating pretty quickly for longs. For example, I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of the previous posters are actually not short at all, just trying to get some negative visibility hoping to see prices go lower so they can buy at a better price. That's deception. Just my prediction, hope it doesn't turn out that way.
The "strength" you refer to is probably a lot of the posters and readers from here, who are familiar with how expansion usually works and with LPHs execution successes from last time.