I am updating my staus.
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LIWA - the other person was ignoring it which was confusing me - I'm easily led. Yes, on reflection, I think you are right.
So, 24,857,717 + 1,964,100 (warrants in item 15) + 4.5M odd new shares in this offering.
That gives 31.XM shares going forward. Though, I assume the extra money is being used for making more wire.
rich
LIWA yahoo post that I can understand [4] - added notes to it to verify.
Net Income guidance for 2010: $34.6 to $35.8 Million [1]
Shares outstanding assuming over-allotment: 29,143,341 (24.9M [2] + 4.3M [3]) - My only worry is Item 15 in 10-K on warrants shows 2 million exercisable I don't know if these have been added in to the diluted count - I assume they have.
2010 EPS Estimate: 1.21
P/E of 8 on 1.21 = $9.68 price
P/E of 10 on 1.21 = $12.10 price
P/E of 12 on 1.21 = $14.52 price
rich
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lihua-International-Reports-prnews-1939504279.html?x=0&.v=10 [1]
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1399521/000114420410016785/v178648_10k.htm [2]
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Lihua-International-Announces-prnews-952119085.html?x=0&.v=101 [3]
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=tm&bn=99408&tid=1404&mid=1439&tof=7&rt=1&frt=2&off=1 [4]
CPQQ - also remember last year the bloke was thumping about 200% inc in revenues this year. This press relese it was a "good year" or something to that effect, complete waffle.
I mean really, what's the market need CPQQ to do? 200%? 100%? 50%? Hell, 30% growth for next 2 years should sustain the pps and then up the estimate as the plant comes on line.
The CEO went missing on the investors just when they needed some soothing words.
As ever, I'm annoyed, but it looks a good mid to long term investment still
rich
CPQQ
Ok so you agree with operating net income as target.
I haven't looked at the uplisting requirements / costs as of yet other than to note the 180 days.
which seems very doable for them even w/o the new plant, considering they grew revenue and net income by about 150% last year.
I disagree. They made growth last year from stopping doing silicon transformers and moving to the new amorphous metal. They are now at capacity. They were at capacity for a little less than 3/4 of the year and got to operating net income of $4.5M. So I understand that $6M for Net income before taxes is doable but I don't think that $7M is in the bag without some operational improvements or price rises etc ( All possible, but I can't count on it).
Perhaps, they are limited by the supply of amorphous metal? In this scenario I imagine that they can contract some additional work out when they get the new supply contract (which seems pending for 2010).
However, I think they most likely improvement is the new plant. When this is announced I suspect the growth numbers will be a formality. I think this is a great story and something will happen sooner or later but I don't see that the numbers are in the bag for this year, yet.
The last 2 quarters revenues were $7.X M and suspect that is what we will see in Q1.
rich
ChinaDaily: Better prospects seen for listed coal firms
That in turn would spur demand for coal and lead to price hikes of around 20 percent within the next two months, said Chen Liang, an analyst with GF Securities.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/08/content_9702174.htm
It's cold then prices go up, it's hot so prices go up - I think it just prices up. All very inflationary.
rich
US/China - yuan up means more jobs in Indonesia - yup that sounds about right.
rich
CPQQ financing
Well I'm new to this but it would make more sense as a percentage of what they put in rather than the happenstance of what's in an escrow.
May date was 180 days after financing, yes.
rich
CCLWE->CCLWF Now, there's a good name change! CCG got it sorted as promised.
rich
CCG INVESTOR RELATIONS were impressive. When I phoned them at 9am NY time they were taken by surprise but they got on to it and had emailed me it's solved by 10.30. Now, if E is removed tomorrow they get full marks.
rich
CELM up 8% on 4 times avg volume eom
Yup, spoke to the US representive, some sort of director, about when they thought it might be open.
Since they previously, from memory, had said something like first half of year. He wouldn't give an inkling of when it would be opened <shrug>
rich
Pappy, what do you reckon about the lack of talk on the new plant? I just don't understand why they don't mention it since that's where the revenues will be coming from?
rich
CCLWE - looks sorted - good IR company!
-----------------------------------------
Rich,
The company has not missed any deadline. As a Foreign Private Issuer (FPI), China Ceramics has until the end of June to file a 20F. It appears OTCBB has made a mistake by adding the “E”. Legal is calling them now to rectify the situation. Hopefully everything will be back to normal shortly.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
Regards,
Bryan C. Blake
-------------------------------
The stock and warrants will trade as CCLWE and CCLTE today according to the OTCBB. Back to normal tomorrow.
CCLWE - looks sorted
-----------------------------------------
Rich,
The company has not missed any deadline. As a Foreign Private Issuer (FPI), China Ceramics has until the end of June to file a 20F. It appears OTCBB has made a mistake by adding the “E”. Legal is calling them now to rectify the situation. Hopefully everything will be back to normal shortly.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
Regards,
Bryan C. Blake
-------------------------------
The stock and warrants will trade as CCLWE and CCLTE today according to the OTCBB. Back to normal tomorrow.
PUDA +4% already 3/4 of daily vol - assume research from yesterday.
rich
LLEN - skystar have posted research on it. Not going to hurt volumes either.
Why after a run up, now, that they post a reasearch boggles the mind but there you go - free world innit
rich
So far I would say it feels "silly" more than suspicious.
They've done presentations, shown unaudited returns and done a CC. If there was any doubt they could have asked for a 15 day grace period, they didn't.
I don't know who is auditing the accounts? It could all rely upon Chinese in which case nothing until tomorrow, sigh.
rich
They did not put an NT form in. That means you have 5 days grace to get 10-K filing in. This they haven't done - so we get E airfixed to the name.
I have asked IR to get onto it. We'll see.
rich
CCLTE/CCLWE - spoke to IR
It was news to them as well. I spoke to Brian, I think, and they said they were looking into it.
CCG Investor Relations Inc
Mr. Bryan Blake, Sr. MI Executive
Phone: +1-646-833-3416
Email: bryan.blake@ccgir.com
rich
WKBTE - SEC filings search gives you two companies. One with 10-Q and an NT for their last 10-Q filing.
The other SEC company has only 3 sec filings but one of them looks like a recent 10-K?
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=WEIKANG+BIO&match=&CIK=&filenum=&State=&Country=&SIC=&owner=exclude&Find=Find+Companies&action=getcompany
I'm confused.
rich
CNAM - nice but no figures. A potential strategic benefit going forward.
Interesting....
"Our initial focus is on Manganese and Pig Iron from Brazil and Coal from Colombia."
rich
China wants to close small steel mills but also small coking and power plants (- the article says more than 50GW but I'm guessing it means less than 50GW).
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/07/content_9694850.htm
Good for steel firms I guess.
rich
CPQQ and trying to understand Financing Agreements
I know that ratobranco has been banging the table on understanding financing agreements. I've been playing with CPQQ's.
So, in 2010 say they make $6 M in operating income - realistic if they don't get the new plant this year.
So imp phrase is "which number of shares should be equal to the percentage of variation between the actual net income and the target net income". The other important fact is escrow is approx 2 Million shares.
Agreement 6M/7M = 86%.
So, the variation is 14% in this case?
So, they get 14% of the 2M shares in Escrow?
So, Variation * Escrow Size = Financier-Kickback
So, 0.14 * 2,080,000 = 291,200 shares to financiers?
rich
(Also, note for perspective buyers there is a clause to take back money for each month after May they don't get uplisted.)
Financing Key Pharpses in relation to Escrow:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418134/000118518509001268/chinapower8k120309.htm
Key Phrase 1:
Delivery of additional shares of Common Stock to the Buyers on a pro rata basis for no additional consideration in the event that the Company’s income from operations for each of the fiscal years ending December 31, 2009 and 2010 is less than $4,500,000 and $7,000,000 respectively, which number of shares should be equal to the percentage of variation between the actual net income and the target net income, provided that no additional shares shall be delivered to the Buyers if such variation is 10% or less;
Key Phrase 2:
Make Good Escrow Agreement
In connection with the Purchase Agreement, the Company also entered into a Make Good Escrow Agreement dated as of November 30, 2009 with the Buyers and Escrow, LLC (the “Escrow Agent”), where the Company committed to place 2,080,000 shares of Common Stock into escrow to be delivered to the Buyers if the Company fails to achieve the income targets as set forth in the Purchase Agreement. A form of such Make Good Escrow Agreement is filed herewith as Exhibit 10.2.
rich
CCLWF -> CCLWE - Given they have given preliminary accounts and that they could have asked for 15 days extra without the "E". It seems a bit naive - sorta like a newbie company move.
Has anyone got their contact information?
rich
PUDA - from, at the earliest, Q2 but probably Q3 it moves from being a washer of coal to a mining company. It has further mines to consolidate over the next few years. I was expectinig it would make a move sometime in August but Summer came early.
It's a known story but someone wanted to fasttrack it.
rich
LLEN - what about NASDAQ value? eom
rich
LLEN - 28M in coking Feb10 8K
Hadn't noticed this - pointed out on Yahoo board. Might of helped in the recent run.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100208/llen8-k.html
40% of 28M is 11M net. Or 30% ish lifter over 2010, ending this April, by itself. Or perhaps I did notice it and forgot? Hmm...
Ah, the longer the justifications the less likely the stock will go up
rich
LLEN, All China - it goes to show what's possible - if it's a simple to understand growing company enters a more respected index and the funds like what they see and say BUY.
Something for the SBAY management to think about.
rich
LLEN - well it's not a value stock anymore. Goes to show that uplisting to NAZ and profitable business = fun.
They are going to do at least 1.10 for year ending this April. They are going to be on a $1.20 - 1.30 run rate at that point. A US coal stock on NAZ, I think, has a multiple of 16 (ignoring that the EPS increased over 100% for LLEN).
You can easily justify $18 - which, as you note, is getting close to current value of $14 - 28% rise left? Not sure if I want to sell it as I figure they will come out with some aquisition or other in the near future.
Hmmm... decisions, decisions.....
rich
PUDA 52 Week High (11.29) - 4*AVG-Vol eom
rich
CPBY - difficult compare - CPBY's barriers to entry are governement contacts. They have, like most large project companies in china, problems with cash flow (from memory). CPBY is certainly undervalued, still after the rise, for it's growth potential and is a long term play on the modernising of China. My only benefit from CPBY's rise is I will get a few points in my fool.com stock game.
Uplisting - as you may know they are obliged to uplist. They could have gone to AMEX but clearly they haven't. However, I can't think this has been written into a press release. If you talk to IR about uplisting then they without prompting talk about Nasdaq. If you listen to the recording of the CC then I *think* they get asked that very question.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Earnings-Conference-Call-prnews-613598335.html?x=0&.v=72
rich
The dilution, they say, will be accreative to earnings. Needless to say they should have kept their mouth shut until after uplisting but it's too late to worry about that.
China is encouraging the conosolidation of the health industry. They do this by not allowing everyone a GMP license - so the company can't keep selling - encouring a sale. I guess there's some bargains around.
In reference to BSPM - they are developing a network in the underserved rural areas (and newly richer as the farmers have been heavily subsidised for the last 2 years) - so they might do very well out of this.
Most of us are here for the Hep B drug... but, hey, what ya going to do? Still cheap and still a good future.
rich
PUDA - sounds good to me Sure beats savings in a bank.
rich
PUDA - yahoo poster says 08:08 PUDA Puda Coal initiated buy at Brean Murray, Carret - wires ($9.91)
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=99423&tid=1403&mid=1403&tof=1&frt=2
rich
PUDA - just me suprised it's up?
I thought the new mine catalysts would help, perhaps, in Q2 but most signficantly in Q3. Anyway, it traded in $9 territory yesterday and looks like premarket at $10 today (6K volume)
rich
Cramer - Has he actually said buy any Chinese stocks yet? Surely, by now Cramer fans wouldn't own a single sino share?
rich
I don't think Redstick said LPIH was a refiner. I think the point was that they will have some spare inventory bought at cheaper prices and stored in their vats which they can use to increase margin over the next quarter or 2.
rich
RINO - seekingalpha on Rino's financing operations
http://seekingalpha.com/article/197101-rino-international-morphing-into-a-financier
rich
SKBI, reasons for downgrade - heard from reliable source it was because of the bit in the 10-K about the lack of internal controls (I did read it at the time and think hmm... not great) - it's been ongoing problem for 18months and they are trying to improve the processes (see 10-K). Apparently, nothing else in the short report.
Here's a yahoo posting....
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=tm&bn=73545&tid=1168&mid=1183&tof=2&rt=1&frt=2&off=1
For myself, I look at SKBI as a long term investment- it's just not really a stock to day or swing trade. Regarding this mornings downgrade, I just got off the phone with Bennet Tchaikovsky, their CFO. The info that WWB jumped on(internal control issues) are minor and are in fact old issues, reported by the company 18 months ago. Some of the issues are still in the resolution phases, but I've been assured that none are of the magnitude requiring any sort of earnings re-statements. The company is 100% committed to bringing themselves into conformance with Sabanes-Oxley accounting rules, since when their market cap hit's $75m, they'll be subject to internal control testing. In fact, at their current market cap, these issues, especially at their small magnitude, are not even subject to reporting. It's a feather in their transparency cap IMO, that they brought the issue out into the open in the first place-- but that said, I expect that kind of transparency from any company I invest in.
JBB, M.D.
CCLTF - one CC question pretty unknown eom
rich