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I would take 80% of $25!
Keep the Faith!
It all seems to be coming together.
PnF charts depending on the size of the boxes are giving upside reversals at .19 .25 and .387. If you get thru the last two, it generates a price of $1.75 and $2.50 on the J's as an upside target. Do your own due diligence!
Certainly there would be news at that point.
Coach T
I agree...
Buried in the last paragraph of the article it states exactly that!
Thanks for clarifying...
I think the sellers are about done. Many of the other preferreds have not sold off the way they normally do when the bids drop off.
I think the preferreds are coiling for the next leg up into the high teens mid 20's.
That article from THe Street.com with Najarian taking an interest I think says it all.
Just the possibility of upside makes these preferreds worth .75-.80 IMO.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
Just a matter of time before the Examiner starts coming after the Paulson/Goldman discovery. He has examined all the rest including the NY Fed!
From the recent article in Time
I've never bought the argument that Paulson was consciously out to wipe out Lehman Brothers and save Goldman Sachs last fall. That sort of behavior just doesn't square with anything I've learned about the man. Plus, it's not as if he and Blankfein were all that chummy—Blankfein was thrilled to see Paulson leave Goldman. It was Goldman's importance and Paulson's respect for Blankfein's smarts that motivated his frequent phone calls.
"What is plausible, though, is that Paulson saw Lehman's fall as deserved but Goldman's (and Morgan Stanley's and Citigroup's and Bank of America's) potential fall as indicative of a systemic failure that had to be prevented. Because, you can hear Paulson thinking to himself, Lloyd Blankfein is much smarter than Dick Fuld is and Goldman is much better-run than Lehman."
"And here's the thing: Lloyd Blankfein probably is smarter than Dick Fuld, and Goldman probably was and is better-run than Lehman was. It's just that allowing that determination to be made by a former Goldman CEO (in part, at least; Paulson describes Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner as equal partners) means that it will forever be open to questioning and criticism."
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/09/01/hank-paulson-thinks-lloyd-blankfein-is-really-smart-is-that-a-crime/
I agree!
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
Just a matter of time before the Examiner starts coming after the Paulson/Goldman discovery. He has examined all the rest including the NY Fed!
From the recent article in Time
I've never bought the argument that Paulson was consciously out to wipe out Lehman Brothers and save Goldman Sachs last fall. That sort of behavior just doesn't square with anything I've learned about the man. Plus, it's not as if he and Blankfein were all that chummy—Blankfein was thrilled to see Paulson leave Goldman. It was Goldman's importance and Paulson's respect for Blankfein's smarts that motivated his frequent phone calls.
"What is plausible, though, is that Paulson saw Lehman's fall as deserved but Goldman's (and Morgan Stanley's and Citigroup's and Bank of America's) potential fall as indicative of a systemic failure that had to be prevented. Because, you can hear Paulson thinking to himself, Lloyd Blankfein is much smarter than Dick Fuld is and Goldman is much better-run than Lehman."
"And here's the thing: Lloyd Blankfein probably is smarter than Dick Fuld, and Goldman probably was and is better-run than Lehman was. It's just that allowing that determination to be made by a former Goldman CEO (in part, at least; Paulson describes Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner as equal partners) means that it will forever be open to questioning and criticism."
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/09/01/hank-paulson-thinks-lloyd-blankfein-is-really-smart-is-that-a-crime/
I agree!
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
Just a matter of time before the Examiner starts coming after the Paulson/Goldman discovery. He has examined all the rest including the NY Fed!
From the recent article in Time
I've never bought the argument that Paulson was consciously out to wipe out Lehman Brothers and save Goldman Sachs last fall. That sort of behavior just doesn't square with anything I've learned about the man. Plus, it's not as if he and Blankfein were all that chummy—Blankfein was thrilled to see Paulson leave Goldman. It was Goldman's importance and Paulson's respect for Blankfein's smarts that motivated his frequent phone calls.
"What is plausible, though, is that Paulson saw Lehman's fall as deserved but Goldman's (and Morgan Stanley's and Citigroup's and Bank of America's) potential fall as indicative of a systemic failure that had to be prevented. Because, you can hear Paulson thinking to himself, Lloyd Blankfein is much smarter than Dick Fuld is and Goldman is much better-run than Lehman."
"And here's the thing: Lloyd Blankfein probably is smarter than Dick Fuld, and Goldman probably was and is better-run than Lehman was. It's just that allowing that determination to be made by a former Goldman CEO (in part, at least; Paulson describes Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner as equal partners) means that it will forever be open to questioning and criticism."
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/09/01/hank-paulson-thinks-lloyd-blankfein-is-really-smart-is-that-a-crime/
I agree!
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
Hourly charts look ready to yield .15-.18
Keep the Faith
Coach T
That is kind of what I thought...just making sure.
Thanks for the reply.
Coach T
Rhino...remind me again what it means when the SAR flips...
Thanks,
Coach T
Classic accumulation again. 500,000+/- went thru on the buy side and then 15000+/- slapped the bid.
Just the same way it has been happening since the initial breakout in April-May.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
So here is a thought for the board...
WHAT IF???
What entities hold the most derivative positions with LEH? The biggest problem in this Chap 11 BK is either the unwinding of these positions or finding a qualified counterparty to assume the trade.
If the three largest LEH counterparties got together and pooled funds to acquire LEH assets and the counterparty risk the largest problem would be solved.
We know the derivative positions are a net positive...it is the assumption and unwinding that is causing the indegestion. If the largest counterparties camew together in today's marketplace and pooled resources to buy LEH...they would still be counterparties and own the assets too. Assets thata have been marked down dramatically.
I have been pondering this for a while now. Any thoughts?
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
PnF charts have a upside reversal at $.25 and again at $.375.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
Thanks Brikk...it looks even better.
Weekly RSI breaking above 30 for the first time since the filing...ruh ro shaggy!
Coach T
Looks like a move to $.35-$.50 is on the way...need about 10M shares to get it running.
Thoughts?
Bloonberg posted a story on how the UK housing market is stabilizing and prices are firming due to supply CONTRACTIONS...we have not heard that for a while.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8qiqkMaXs3w
Bloonberg posted a story on how the UK housing market is stabilizing and prices are firming due to supply CONTRACTIONS...we have not heard that for a while.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8qiqkMaXs3w
Bloonberg posted a story on how the UK housing market is stabilizing and prices are firming due to supply CONTRACTIONS...we have not heard that for a while.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8qiqkMaXs3w
brikk or Recon...
Have you looked at the weekly and monthly charts of LEHJQ and LEHMQ?
They look like they are really set to explode soon.
Would you post the weekly and monthly charts on the same graphs that you did earlier please?
I am interested to see them on your chart setup.
Thanks...Keep the Faith!
Coach T
Check out the statement in the third to last paragraph...
"Restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal is unwinding Lehman's remaining assets. The bankrupt firm is expected to post a second-quarter loss of $2.8 billion on real estate and mortgage writedowns, but has also seen a number of once-troubled assets rebound as the economy has recovered."
From the New York Times...
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08282009/business/lehman_squeeze_186838.htm
Get ready its about that time...MARK UPS!!!
Enjoy,
Coach T
Check out the statement in the third to last paragraph...
"Restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal is unwinding Lehman's remaining assets. The bankrupt firm is expected to post a second-quarter loss of $2.8 billion on real estate and mortgage writedowns, but has also seen a number of once-troubled assets rebound as the economy has recovered."
From the New York Times...
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08282009/business/lehman_squeeze_186838.htm
Get ready its about that time...MARK UPS!!!
Enjoy,
Coach T
Check out the statement in the third to last paragraph...
"Restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal is unwinding Lehman's remaining assets. The bankrupt firm is expected to post a second-quarter loss of $2.8 billion on real estate and mortgage writedowns, but has also seen a number of once-troubled assets rebound as the economy has recovered."
From the New York Times...
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08282009/business/lehman_squeeze_186838.htm
Get ready it about that time...MARK UPS!!!
Enjoy,
Coach T
LEHMQ Common looks like it wants to break out to the upside here. Almost 2M shares already. Needs to get above $.06 IMO.
How about some news about assets increasing in value after the close from Mr. Marsal and Co!
We have not heard anything for awhile.
Good Luck,
Coach T
THE CYCLE COMPLETES - Have we come full circle?
Remember me? Wall Street repackages toxic debt
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090824/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown_deja_vu
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
THE CYCLE COMPLETES - Have we come full circle?
Remember me? Wall Street repackages toxic debt
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090824/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown_deja_vu
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
THE CYCLE COMPLETES - Have we come full circle?
Remember me? Wall Street repackages toxic debt
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090824/ap_on_bi_ge/us_meltdown_deja_vu
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
Isn't that amazing...
24,000 trade on the ask side and then 400 and 489 on the low bid to cover/camoflage the purchase trade.
Coach T
Remember when FNM and FRE went down? They are breaking out to the upside today...especially on the weekly charts!
Good Sign for all parts of LEH IMO...
The perfect storm to the downside is now unraveling the same way on the way up. Weekly charts on the REITS look great IMO.
The money will find its way to LEH soon...
Balance sheet does not look too far away IMO.
Keep the Faith!
Coach T
LEHMAN DEBT RISING! (News Starting to spread)
From Clusterstock:
New York law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges was approved for $55 million for work done on the Lehman bankruptcy for September through January of last year and has requested the bankruptcy judge approve another $45.2 million for hours billed February through May.
Not a bad gig. Of course people are getting angry over this, watching these attorneys raking it in. But these fees impact only one group of people - Lehman creditors. And the creditors don't seem too concerned about the attorneys' fees. An institution as complex as Lehman will need all the help it can get to recover assets.
Apparently Weil, Gotshal & Manges has been doing something right. Lehman debt has been gradually trading up. The medium term senior unsecured notes (below) are at almost 19 cents on the dollar and actively traded.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157786-a-rally-in-lehman-debt
FYI
Coach T
LEHMAN DEBT RISING! (News Starting to spread)
From Clusterstock:
New York law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges was approved for $55 million for work done on the Lehman bankruptcy for September through January of last year and has requested the bankruptcy judge approve another $45.2 million for hours billed February through May.
Not a bad gig. Of course people are getting angry over this, watching these attorneys raking it in. But these fees impact only one group of people - Lehman creditors. And the creditors don't seem too concerned about the attorneys' fees. An institution as complex as Lehman will need all the help it can get to recover assets.
Apparently Weil, Gotshal & Manges has been doing something right. Lehman debt has been gradually trading up. The medium term senior unsecured notes (below) are at almost 19 cents on the dollar and actively traded.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157786-a-rally-in-lehman-debt
FYI
Coach T
LEHMAN DEBT RISING! (News Starting to spread)
From Clusterstock:
New York law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges was approved for $55 million for work done on the Lehman bankruptcy for September through January of last year and has requested the bankruptcy judge approve another $45.2 million for hours billed February through May.
Not a bad gig. Of course people are getting angry over this, watching these attorneys raking it in. But these fees impact only one group of people - Lehman creditors. And the creditors don't seem too concerned about the attorneys' fees. An institution as complex as Lehman will need all the help it can get to recover assets.
Apparently Weil, Gotshal & Manges has been doing something right. Lehman debt has been gradually trading up. The medium term senior unsecured notes (below) are at almost 19 cents on the dollar and actively traded.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/157786-a-rally-in-lehman-debt
FYI
Coach T
Not certain...
Coach T
Thanks Joe:
Just too many questions remain I guess for the marketplace.
Have a great weekend.
Coach T
Balance Sheet Follow up...
At last calculation LEH Liabilities were ahead of Assets by about 21B+/-.
I had one other thought. In the July 8 Creditor transcripts Mr. Marsal refers to the NET receiveables for intercompany to LBHI at 50B.
According to the Balance Sheet dated 12.31/08 they as follows:
Total Due from Affiliates..............221,408
Total Due to Affiliates................189,159
Net Receiveable from Affiliates............32.2B
According to Mr. Marsal there is another 18B+/- that they have neted out in LBHI's favor. However, there is no guarantee it can be collected.
Add the additional net rec. of 18B to the 21B deficit from the original numbers and now it is a wash.
Enjoy,
Coach T
Balance Sheet Follow up...
At last calculation LEH Liabilities were ahead of Assets by about 21B+/-.
I had one other thought. In the July 8 Creditor transcripts Mr. Marsal refers to the NET receiveables for intercompany to LBHI at 50B.
According to the Balance Sheet dated 12.31/08 they as follows:
Total Due from Affiliates..............221,408
Total Due to Affiliates................189,159
Net Receiveable from Affiliates............32.2B
According to Mr. Marsal there is another 18B+/- that they have neted out in LBHI's favor. However, there is no guarantee it can be collected.
Add the additional net rec. of 18B to the 21B deficit from the original numbers and now it is a wash.
Enjoy,
Coach T
Balance Sheet Follow up...
At last calculation LEH Liabilities were ahead of Assets by about 21B+/-.
I had one other thought. In the July 8 Creditor transcripts Mr. Marsal refers to the NET receiveables for intercompany to LBHI at 50B.
According to the Balance Sheet dated 12.31/08 they as follows:
Total Due from Affiliates..............221,408
Total Due to Affiliates................189,159
Net Receiveable from Affiliates............32.2B
According to Mr. Marsal there is another 18B+/- that they have neted out in LBHI's favor. However, there is no guarantee it can be collected.
Add the additional net rec. of 18B to the 21B deficit from the original numbers and now it is a wash.
Enjoy,
Coach T
atta' baby!
CHecked them earier...Sr. bonds look like they are trading on the bid at.16-.18
Subord Bonds are around .11-.12
Coach T
See post #5710
Good Point...at my last estimate the claims were running around 21B+/-.
However, if you arbitrarily open the claims...I find a lot of the claims are for the investment products like bonds, fixed income, etc, which I would think would be under the 99B under Liabilities.
No doubt there will be some claims for damages among other things. We will see...
Thanks for your posts M. Keep it up!
Coach T
Trust Preferreds should be higher in line. There appears to be 99B of bonds outstanding. I would think they would be liking this update.
The market was expecting about 50-60B Liabilities over Assets IMO.
Remember this report is dated 12/31/08. We already know that things are better. I believe MARK UPS are coming IMO...
We have alot of litigation factors that are up in the air...yet to be decided.
INcluding the 21B deficit, that leaves only around 30B to pay all the face value of all Preferreds if I am reading this right. On a 300B balance sheet 10% is not much of a move IMO. Still complete speculation however...
Coach T
Ok...let start the discussion.
the Balance Sheet looks better than I expected (not an accountant). Check my numbers...
Assets..........................................295,975
Mark ups and adjustments per the notes...........8B
(Real Estate 6B and Prin Invest. mark UPS 2B)
Total Adjusted Assets..........................303,975
Liabilities....................................324,969
Deficit before Pref and common..................21B
(Approximate)
It would seem Bonds, Trusts even Preferreds would like this "scrubbed down" balance sheet more. Definately not .18 on the dollar.
I know it is a rough example. Again, the numbers were better than I was expecting.
Thoughts???
Coach T
Ok...let start the discussion.
the Balance Sheet looks better than I expected (not an accountant). Check my numbers...
Assets..........................................295,975
Mark ups and adjustments per the notes...........8B
(Real Estate 6B and Prin Invest. mark UPS 2B)
Total Adjusted Assets..........................303,975
Liabilities....................................324,969
Deficit before Pref and common..................21B
(Approximate)
It would seem Bonds, Trusts even Preferreds would like this "scrubbed down" balance sheet more. Definately not .18 on the dollar.
I know it is a rough example. Again, the numbers were better than I was expecting.
Thoughts???
Coach T