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Lamberth is all about jps contract claims. They can do whatever they want.
Good plan i suppose. At these prices might want to up your buying. I dont think anyone expects anything major in these gse to fhfa capital plans. Bernstein confirmation opens the door for some admin action though this summer
Bernstein votes through now waiting full senate vote (next week before senate goes on recess?). Then we have out window for some signs for admin reform. Spspa conversion is what the gov budget seems to account for. Good luck
Doubt it
Yessir
If the math fits
Doesnt look like you sold yet. Cheer up.
Wishing you the fortune of another great day
I understand it must be frustrating to be buying shares of two companies that could be diluted by spspa conversion from 2 billion shares now to like 500 billion shares with spspa conversion— and if you ballpark $25b of earnings and 10x multiple then you get about 50 cents a share as the valuation which is about where we are at.
Undervalued? Your shares are not in my view.
I think he probably isnt adding, so the latter is true, but if he was smart hed be buying jps only at this point and in size
He could always buy more jps
new theory, perhaps buyers coming in now find more easy liquidity in the commons and can't find the liquidity they want in jps.
Something about all preferred converting.
By leakage i mean people are starting to get hyped about biden admin reform possibilities. Same thing. I also see 0 chance of sandra thompson moving on. They would need a new senate confirmed FHFA director. That would take a long time if they could even get someone.
Commons getting closer to 50 cents. Plus 10 percent today. On relatively decent volume.
Interesting how capital group and fairholme seem to be cutting exposure to jps recently.
Cheers to a happy monday. Clock starts ticking friday.
You want my view? Because admin action news is leaking and people would naturally first go buy common shares. Thats my opinion.
Yep. Commons are vanquished when the govt restructures its spspa into 500b of new common
congrats on your green day
Bernstein Committee Vote Thursday
Executive Session
DATE: Thursday, May 11, 2023Add to my CalendarTIME: 09:45 AMLOCATION: Dirksen Senate Office Building 538
This hearing will not be webcast.
TOPIC
THE COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS will meet in Executive Session to VOTE on the following nominations: Dr. Jared Bernstein,
https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/05/04/2023/executive-session
thank you for your concern. again, this is an ad hominum attack ---
spspa conversion would be around 500B new common shares in my view analyzing the government's valuation statements.
heads up!
Before their owner’s gse commons locks in its permanent restructuring haircut.
No position on commons performance. Up or down any given week (who cares— a gamble on a guaranteed restructuring with no security) but yeah i think jps bottomed and will head up
Sandra thompson isnt going anywhere.
We know you wouldnt. You have given up on biden admin reform. Cheers.
While i think you are wrong i cannot spare $100k when the opportunity cost is 20x.
Note to self. Freddie mac spspa according to govt accounting is closer to face value if liq pref is converted
Yep. Mistakes in selling jps
I forget how many commons navy has (not sure it matters when this is resolved). Maybe 500,000 shares. Of fnmas and fmckj that is like $12.5m of par. Nice. I think thats more than huntbeachwhale
sure look at this one https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2022/notes-to-the-financial-statements8.pdf and note that the warrants are worth 3.5B which means commons are worth 46 cents for their 7.6B of warrant shares. the spspa they value at 219B, which in common shares at 46 cents is 476B shares of new commons issued for SPSPA conversion. so the government has 483B shares of commons. existing commons get to keep their 1.9B shares. then you have junior preferred to consider as well. But simple math at $25B / year of earnings --- an 485B of outstanding shares that's about 5 cents a share in annual earnings.. at 10x earnings you get $0.50. hope that helps.
So you think they just hand it off to the next R administration and let them unwind all their progress? Guess you assign 0 weights to david stevens and gary hindes etc.
Capital group would agree with you. Theyve been dumping since December i think.
So would anyone who thinks this is an election trade.
It was all backward looking. Nothing of forward looking substance. All 2008.
Worth maybe $75m when this is restructured and the price does not change. Good luck
In your view they cant manipulate. In my view they can and they can lock in their manipulations by finalizing rules and consent decree making reversing their views by the next admin not possible because their power to make change in conservatorship is much greater than out. Dont believe me— read what arch enemy david h stevens has to say about it. He now favors recap and release
She was announced yesterday and fnmas traded up and will continue to trade up — even if you do not understand does not mean that people who have much more money will be equally lost. Good for jps not bad.
Commons are doomed. Unfortunately. Spspa conversion is on deck
Tanden to replace rice
Surprised you are posting about the litigation and not the admin team. Wrong focus. The admin train is still boarding but it will be leaving the station. That said, the onboarding is increasingly favorable. Friday was big. Sea change. Spspa conversion cometh increases in odds in my view based on friday. Commons are not going to like it but they dont know so— they will just find out when it is too late. Every post i make here is to try and help them until then.
Fyi ackman dropped his pending litigation. So he cant stand in the way of spspa conversion.
you must not understand what happened yesterday and why promoting a spspa conversion official matters, good luck
you're really failing to undestand...
in 2019 the government changed course to recap and release. jps by the government's own documents have to be dealt with in this outcome, you probably aren't aware that the news yesterday that drove the jps up was because the official who is getting promoted talked with jps about converting with spspa conversion...
commons in that scenario are never going to get more than $1. the risk reward with friday's news hugely favors jps over commons, as if it didn't already.
Hello navycmdr,
I've noticed your recent posts on this bulletin board regarding the stock values of FNMAS and FNMA. While I understand your skepticism, I must clarify that FNMAS is indeed worth $25, as it is the preferred stock of Fannie Mae. However, FNMA common stock is technically worth less, but not zero.
I understand that you may have had past experiences that may have left you jaded about these stocks, but it's important to keep in mind that the stock market can be unpredictable and subject to change.
I hope this clears up any confusion and helps you make informed decisions in the future. Thank you for your contributions to this bulletin board.