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if I were to chicken out on my gold stocks I'd have a profit on both AEM and G and a loss on YRI -- I'm thinking maybe I should shift back into tech or maybe the move up in tech may pull the gold stocks along for the ride.
hmmm....
oddly enough the QQQQ looks good on the hourly chart
thx.
fwiw, I've just started buying
Agnico-Eagle, Goldcorp and Yamana-- things that comprise the index-- things that are liquid-- things that I can reverse my position on quite easily.
Uranium Reports
http://www.rcresearch.com.au/documents
I'm of the opinion that we'll see another pullback-- regarding gold, it'll happen fast ... it'll break through support at the 200-day MA but I'm betting it won't go any lower than $580 giving us a possible 1-2-3 bottom.
...and I'm thinking the same thing with oil-- possible return to $60 before giving us a sharp rally that blows the shirts off the shorts.
Anyway, extremely difficult market to play-- most commodities that I follow are tenaciously holding onto the 200-day MA causing both the bulls and the bears a pile of grief.
The chart below is a good illustration:
XGD-TSX -- hourly chart view...after the pivot point, lower high in the last hour of trading
On the radar: Talisman Energy
http://dai.investor.reuters.com/Article.aspx?docid=10180&target=companyoftheday&src=DAI
both GLD and SLV have almost retraced today's losses-- and in all likelihood (according to the strength in stocks) a possible finish in the green
RIMM up 20% ????
I guess that's off-topic but wtf, wish I was in it.
Josef Schachter, president, Schachter Asset Management
Top Picks -- Energy Stocks
Niko Resources (NKO TSX)
Oilexco (OIL TSX)
Accrete Energy (GZ TSX)
12:30 PM ET
http://www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv?day=fri
good performance in the metal stocks-- considering.
Check out Silvercorp (SVM-TSX) big volume, low volatility-- possible break-out
check out the hourly charts on both DIA and QQQQ
a roll-over...?
if the markets fall off a cliff tomorrow-- it'll be interesting to see if commodities continue their upswing.
xgd and xeg are moving in lockstep
hmmm... charts are repairing themselves-- see if this improves into the close.
check out als, frg, iuc and sxr
the rally in the natural resources sectors didn't last too long
time to bar the doors
Oil: Will the Malthusian View Carry the Day?
By Charles Gave
http://www.investorsinsight.com/otb_va_print.aspx?EditionID=392
copper vs. oil (Faber vs. van Eeden...?)
do you want a good laugh...?
2 opposing views from 2 analysts I respect
Dr. Doom turns bullish on U.S. large-cap stocks
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Famed contrarian investor Marc Faber, better known by his self-appointed nickname "Dr Doom," has temporarily shed his preference for emerging-market stocks for two out-of-favor asset classes: large-cap U.S. industrial and technology shares.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/7Sg84kfwdcjj0FC7wNjJt8q?siteid=yhoo&dist=TNMostRead&pr...
Jewellery, the Economy and Gold
By Paul van Eeden
According to IDEX, the prices of 1.5 and 2 carat diamonds fell below their prices of a year ago for the first time in recent history. In my way of thinking that is probably because the bull market in stocks, bonds and real estate that started in 1982 might finally be coming to an end. IDEX apparently found that U.S. jewellers are concerned that softening jewellery demand is a leading indicator for U.S. economic growth.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=24105
I took a few positions in the PM sector towards yesterday's close-- sold everything after the first hour of trading-- don't like it when stocks gap up on light volume and start to sell-off immediately afterwards-- took a small profit.
anyway, added some energy about an hour after that, sold everything (again) when they started pulling back and gave away my small profit from the first hour
Now my margin account is at 100% cash.
I'll try again on Monday-- I suppose the sell-off continues in the morning-- I'll look to buy after the first hour.
What's behind the Meltdown in the Commodity markets?
by Gary Dorsch
http://safehaven.com/article-5916.htm
I expected a short-covering rally but going by the action today, it kinda makes you wonder when this is going to stop...!?
--
C$ up big this morning ... premarket on natural resource stocks looking a bit healthier too.
really, it was just a year or so ago he had a date set for the invasion of Iran, he didn't say "soon," he actually said by spring of 2006-- anyway, he speaks of geopolitics more than I care for. In his book "Tomorrow's Gold" he mentions Taiwan 22 times-- like I've heard all before which is why I sigh when I see a poster foaming at the mouth over GWB and other geopolitical doodads.
That said, here's a chart of Saskatchestan Wheat Pool-- as the chart shows there's nowhere to hide, not even on the farm.
note the strength of the ADX
The one thing I say say about Faber is that his consistent with his message. thanks for posting.
Ohh, this is w-a-y beyond politics-- I originally thought it to be "sell oil and buy tech gambit" but with this kind of relentless sell-off there's got to be a hedge fund or two or twelve or twenty-four caught on the wrong side of this trade ... this drop is reminding me an awful lot like Refco when they had to liquidate.
Anyway, I feel your pain since I do have a RSP account with leverage to oilsand and uranium ... but I'm thinking long-term.
But nevertheless, going by Gerald Loeb's axiom of putting all your eggs in one basket-- it ain't no fun when you have to watch the basket...! <vbg>
if I were to draw a line of support for oil-- I'd stretch my chart out over a period of 5-years and find that $45 oil is as good a number as any.
huge negative volume on XEG.to in the last hour of trading-- both the RSI and MACD are at their lowest level in years, yes years-- this could be the most oversold this sector has ever been.
I'm surprised the housing stocks haven't rallied on the fed leaving rates unchanged.
big negative volume on the QQQQ in last hour-- traders must have been selling the fed news ... but the naz quickly recovered in this final hour-- we'll see how we close.
btw, I'm getting tired of this commodity correction-- I'm not even that levered to it, at least not in a big way, but nevertheless I need a rest.
the volumes on USO are highest I've ever seen-- by a wide margin
yes, very interesting-- and I immediately drew a comparison with Warren Buffet.
The second richest person in the world giving away his money to the richest person in the world, to finally getting married to his girlfriend of 30-years by a judge in a feeble attempt to get straight with God...?
Then you've got a brash, multi-tattooed, multi-millionaire rock star who praises God to anyone who'll listen.
Yes, interesting to say the least.
Kazakhstan?
best risk/reward??
if their stock is so drastically undervalued-- why would they push ahead with more financing...?
But to what avail...?
To finally wash the original investors out of their share of the equity...?
fwiw, check out what Jimmy Rogers had to say about Kazakhstan in his book "Adventure Capitalist" -- in his words "To say I am not optimistic about the future of Central Asia is an understatement of oceanic proportions," "there's no logic at all to Kazakhstan" and my favourite, "Ethic and tribal distinctions will drive the region's politics."
Sell it and buy RSC.V
if you're looking for trades check out BUCY and CAT
I'll read your post after the close. thanks.
did you buy it as a trade...???
IMO, the only reason you buy a crapper is for the drillbit-- you either ride the thing up to forty bucks or down to zero. fwiw, I've stop trading these things long ago.
anyway, to answer your question:
if it's a trade-- sell, but if you're holding it for fundamental reasons then stick with it.
A ... I dunno what's up with that-- high volume on BGO is not always good.
I bought it yesterday, only to sell it this morning after the 10 million share cross on the TSX.
Now I'm sitting patiently-- the markets are playing out exactly like I thought they would on Friday.
I think it's the wrong time to buy-- but who knows...???
anyway, check your email.
from the Kirk Report:
http://www.thekirkreport.com/2006/09/positive_feedba.html
Straight From The Q&A
A number of members found my answer to this specific Q&A of interest so I thought I'd share it with everyone:
Steve asks: Would you be so kind to share your experience on your blog regarding trouble in trading? I have been trading for about 1-1/2 years and recently have been in a rut. I know everyone goes thru these times and most recommend doing intensive review, do you have any suggestions?
Kirk answers: Just like the economy and market, everything goes through cycles, both good, bad, and in the middle. Trading is the same way. You haven't really been trading for long enough to know that it just comes with the territory. Any trader who says they can produce big profits day in day out without experiencing a trading rut is not being honest.
As you say, the first thing that most traders do is try to "fix" their strategy by an intensive review. While it is good to try to make every improvement you can about your approach, I also think there is also a danger commonly overlooked by a lot of traders. That is, they move from one strategy to the next without giving any strategy enough time to fully develop and become successful. I hear from traders all of the time who tell me they've tried dozens of trading strategies but none of them have ever worked. When I ask them how long they've spent with each, they often say just a few weeks or a couple of months. These traders are seeking the holy grail - a simple way of beating the market without really developing a strategy that will work for them over the long-term. To give you some perspective, I'm still in the process of working on the very same trading strategies that I've been developing over the past 10 years.
In sum, be introspective, but don't let a trading rut force unnecessary changes if you've been doing well and making substantive progress overall. Up, downs, and lots of "in the middle" are to be expected. A great analogy to the learning curve we all experience as traders is very similar to the process of losing lots of weight. You can have a great diet and work out daily, but it takes time for your body to understand that it must slim down and shed the fat and ultimately make progress toward your goals. The reason why many people don't lose weight is that they give up before they start to see positive results. They're working hard and sacrificing, but when no results come they quickly lose the motivation. I see the same thing in a lot of traders. A lot of people are doing a lot of "right" things but they grow impatient because they think everyone else is making tons of money, they set very unrealistic expectations, and when things get tough they give up. Frankly, a lot of investment advisories prey on those emotions because they often imply how easy it is to get rich trading stocks if you just listen to them. I've said this before and I'll say it again - this is not easy. Anything and anyone that promises you big bucks with no work should be ignored just like all of the weight-loss scams the promise significant weight loss without a healthy diet and exercise.
Iron Maiden undergoes a renaissance
Nicko McBrain opens up about the original line-up, the new CD and finding God
http://www.canada.com/topics/entertainment/story.html?id=41753537-c41f-4f04-9c43-99def58956ef&k=...
yes, it's BS
<vbg>
When trading-- my entry and exits are based primarily around the EOD action of a daily chart. I trade around an hourly (based on 21-days) directed by the EOD action of a daily chart based on 6-months. My buy and sell decisions on the hourly chart is dictated by volume and pivot points. The daily chart gauges trend strength by using tools like MAs and ADX and if there is no trend strength, then Bollinger Bands and a CCI indicator dictates my stamina on the hourlies.
Weekly and monthly charts don't suit my purpose since most of holding periods are 3 to 4 days.
That said, if I'm not holding something as a TRADE (3-4 days) then I'm holding it for fundamental reasons-- under those circumstances charts need not apply.
I'm not sure how to respond to this, or maybe I shouldn't?
Rule # 9: Keep a trade diary [ Mostly: Classical...? ]
anyway, your comments:
"There is a school of thought that says first time up you do not break out."
I agree with that.