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hey jared, hope you are safe and ok.
NWS continues triangle BO from 20 area; GS has a target of only 21; if GOOG pays 1.6 for youtube, myspace will look like a bargin
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took some ARNA profits @15.45
ARNA mentioned here yesterday thru 15; recent hi near 15.44
NVDA acting like offer coming this weekend; some one positioning; thru 31
SBUX challenging old hi @ 39.88; too good to pass up, took profits in ira; CSCO green off SLR report; hope this pullback last longer than a few hours
bond market is the driver; job #s not weak enough for priced in cut
if you are referring to the guy pisani interviewed, yeah.
guess they do not screen their guests. it would be polite to call his "stats" misstatements. there probably is a small segment of flippers and others who entered into questionable buys with questionable loans, but not sure those few people, in over their heads, will seriously impact retail in general.
there is ample opportunity for those inclined to refinance. there are no point fixed rate loans under 6, now. i do not believe in the much touted national housing bubble. some markets are overpriced and will correct. some builders have too much inventory, but in a year or two things will reset.
while many are howling about the RE crash, they are missing a raging bull market in commercial RE. i review hundreds of charts each day and the RE equities still look strong. (e.g. VNO,EQR, BXP, etc etc.) i have many clients and friends in the business who are circling like vultures. the opps in RE over the next few years will be wonderful. upper end mountain resort property markets are still soaring. in those areas the biggest problem is lack of inventory. in aspen new construction is going for $1,300/sq. ft +. a few here have questioned retail and yet mall reits (e.g. GGP) look healthy.
i believe US real estate is better than gold. i live near an area where many wealthy foreigners pay cash (1mil to 5mil) just for prime homesites. the 500k to 1.5mil range (homes) is slowing, but above 3 mil+ things look to actually be perking up. the rich love these low rates. as individuals in manhattan, san diego and vegas flee their condos, apartment owners in metro areas are doing great; people still need a place to live and the demand is still there.
well its starting with MU tonight; i have no position in Qs;
shorts may make some profits tomorrow depending on jobs #s;
re Q composition, i use the nasdaq site; at present updated thru 9/29
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/indexshares.asp?symbol=QQQQ
hi lexi, i'm certainly no expert but for me daily MACD can be tricky; e.g. look @ early april - it toyed with cross-down for several weeks and went below even while Qs bounced; it wasn't til may 11 that it took a hard turn and vol. confirmed.
i look more @ the weekly and CCI for big picture direction;
during the last few big runs cci ran to 200 (its at 172 tonight); once cci and macd peaked it was time to bail;
i'm generally positive this time of year; low rates are juice to the market and mut. and hedge funds had a tough year.
if they can, they will drive the market; look at the buying the other day when we dropped off on WMT warning. also hedge funds cannot manipulate big caps like energies or other smaller sectors; i am praying for a pullback to buy select names; i understand many are skeptical but i see new hi s
and index BOs all over.
as long as the channel is not broken or we have some huge event, i'll play the same way; i still think this run looks alot like fall 04 - Qs ran from 32 (aug) to 40, basically hit top around thanksgiving and traded sideways til EOY; i watch the top 10 Q weighted names more than QQQQ itself;
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hey spooky, i think YHOO and MRVL already factored in and have been hammered. did you see and review the retail #s this morning? they were generally very good. BBY, JWN etc reported great #s earlier. lower gas prices and lower rates appear to help;
speciality foods/restaurants (SBUX and PNRA) also doing well.
gen. dept stores not bad either. people will spend over the holidays. upper end retailers should do great.
that said, many have had a good run and need a good pullback
FWIW, Qs @ 41.60 area where May 11 breakdown occurred; volume
alittle lighter today; even if tech weakens, slack may be picked
up by bios and select retail; weekly still looks like fall 04;
still no major tech warnings and channel intact;
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HLT another BO candidate
they are buying BIO; bowls everywhere; ARNA is another;
GILDs buy of myogen triggering interest; AMGN new drug approval;
old pharma (with hi stock prices) shoulda snapped some of these little guys up
CELG like AMGN
AMGN rockin; maybe a test of that 75+ area and then a pullback to form cup and handle
TM cup and handle; maybe a retest near 112
took profits on SBUX novs; too good to pass up
SBUX getting lit up again; replaced oct calls with nov.
OT hey gleno, did you ever get the opp. to try merenda in bend? that town has some great restaurants and booming RE
yeah got lucky; bot some oct35s @ 1.45 yesterday and sold for
3.40 this morning; looking to reload; same with AMGN
still looks like parallel channel- aug 11 and sept 11 touchpoints holding; today bottom of channel near 40.20 area;
took profits in 41 calls this morning and in SBUX and AMGN;
they're selling the good news in retailers; watching SO in NVDA - yesterday rumor of INTC takeover
SBUX - nice inverse H&S break-out and MACD cross-over; also, its up almost two AH
ACLI - barge transport
PG - another BO; could have a melt up
yeah but CAL traffic up 11.5%; i own LUV in low 16s and am
watching for triangle BO near 17; have you checked airfares
lately? fares are up and at least for some costs are down;
LUV is hedged the best; also watching FDX, ACLI (up nice today) and EXPD
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9B78A984%2D620F%2D43F0%2D8ED0%2D8D4AF935783...
$trans starting to perk up; if we get a surge, MACD cross-up is possible; airlines might lead the charge;
AMGN - bull flag watch; hard bounce in GILD
large buy program in place; SBUX surging; breaking thru 35; bot some AAPL this morning @ 73.50; GS getting bot again
SBUX (up a buck) and AMGN helping Qs;
also GOOG pump
tech weak so someone sits on the MSFT buy button
hey MFB, appreciate all the work you do. short term the trend
with touch points from aug 11 and sept 11 shows support near
39.90 - right where it bounced yesterday, but as mentioned,
weekly has better support near lows 39s.
yeah and the big question mark is transports; with oil plunging, why are they stalling; they need to bust out of 4500 soon; overall slowdown is probably assured; still, i'll just try and take what the market gives - defense, insurance,
select financials; commercial RE; select retail,some christmas plays, some staples MO, GIS, VZ, MCD
your right; its only tues but $sox has slightly broken weekly
trend/wedge; starting to look like possible H&S; it could lead (or drag) Qs down; INTC vs EU
e.g. ALL
yeah but the strength in select big cap could continue for awhile; hedgies and funds have to place their bets somewhere
and its end of year; i disagree with your suggestion there is no basis for big cap; for example look at defense plays (LMT, GD, RTN, etc); the feds have been handing out contracts left and right; BA is reaping benefits from airbus woes;
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061003/france_airbus.html?.v=23;
look at insurance - many raised rates after last years hurricanes and now are reaping the benefits of higher rates and few storms (ALL, RNR); select financials also greatly benefit from lower rates; many big cap plays have good balance sheets, have been buying back stock and pay divs; the funds can push to extremes;
also low energy costs and lower interest rates do add juice;
IMO this is the perfect time for good stock picking; earnings season will further separate the chaff from the wheat
i agree but YHOO has already been pounded; would be surprised to see another gap down like last time (7/18); however, just read an article that ads for homes and cars have significantly declined; bad earnings however could affect other tech; gotta believe we get some more warnings over the next week or so; $sox looking alittle weak also
$WTIC - monthly; may take some time but 50 looks like a strong possibility; could have huge ramifications on terror supporting producers and geopolitical situations;
MSFT looks stalled @ 27.5 area; if vista is released on time, most believe there will be cautious use by business and then, only late 2007; also, INTC could be hit with EU anti-trust attack (only way europeans can compete - sue); can't believe many will risk piling into GOOG before YHOO earnings;
today with all the hoopla, it was like tech was being ignored;
also tis the season for koolaid political attacks;
IMO the predominant pattern currently is a parallel channel
(see weekly) working off the inverse H&S from this summer;
this week the bottom of the channel is near 39.30 area; also
39 is near neckline; weekly CCI turned down today slightly;
MACD also slight cross-down on daily;
i own some 41 puts but will not become bearish unless channel breaks hard; i hope and assume they will take the techs down before earnings; INTC and YHOO on the 17th, AAPL
on the 18th and GOOG on 19th; i'm distracted by the wonderful opps in 2 and 3 letter stocks