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I did some chopping today....no one likes uncertainty in the market..where ever that market is.....and now you have it.
Enkhbold is out completely at this moment. The TT is now more uncertain...and closure is unattainable currently.
MMC though is still undervalued even considering stand alone....way undervalued.
There's nothing to them though...and I do agree with "you know who"....completely. But it still doesn't make me comfortable. Need closure...but no matter what...we will get it by July 7th...rough.
....then it's TT
Case in point:
Mongolians fret over China investment as they prepare to vote
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/06/25/mongolians-fret-over-china-investment-as-they-prepare-to-vote/
And you know what railway mentioned is/was....
Gotcha ya'... are you able to reach out to "you know who"... and get a feel for this election? I can not get any reliable information through the limited media outlets. This is one of those rare occasions where I add weight to "other" information. A little nervous .. I must say ..
What surprised me was the former Czech Republic(now two nations):
2015 PER CAPITA CRUDE STEEL CONSUMPTION (top 37 markets ranked)
1. South Korea 1.16t
2. Taiwan 0.88t
3. United Arab Emirates 0.87t
4. Singapore 0.85t
5. Former Czechoslovakia 0.63t
6. Japan 0.53t
7. Germany 0.53t
8. China 0.51t
9. Turkey 0.46t
10. Saudi Arabia 0.43t
11. Canada 0.41t
12. Malaysia 0.39t
13. Poland 0.35t
14. USA 0.33t
35. India 0.07t
That being said....we tend to forget nations that have yet to emerge or reemerge. One of the biggest examples is the UAE(#3).
2015
And then there is Brazil...as another reemergence. But think of all the others out there that can easily dispute over capacity issues....et al. Any how..that was the first thing that jumped out at me. So what really is the total available market(TAM)...eh? More for later...
Actually something did, and I meant to discuss it. Will have to read again....
I wouldn't be embarrassed.... excellent comeback!...and beautiful play.
;)...so you should be in that nice range(.25-.30 HK) ... from memory. Nice play.
No matter how you look at this play....it is way undervalued. I don't like using those type of words..but truth be told.
I do not think we will ever revisit the recent lows unless something absurd happens(anomaly.. be it random). Hope to get closure here with regards to election come Monday(HK time)...or after the run off if such(probably). This upswing should continue as the scheme players have gotten a grasp of inventory and their allotment of such.
Happy hunting :)
Well...with regards to "do not covet thy neighbor's wife" What if your neighbor is a cuckold and enjoys such? I get your point.
To be more precise....only a broker of those concerned would be able to know such. If that is the case...then that broker would have breached "in confidence" of said clients. Not by name...but by affiliation.
I am not discrediting them as individuals.......I just disdain information that can never be proven as fact.
Water is "one" of the main reasons for the TT deal. The demand will always be there...especially given the decreased exports of steel via China. That will change when they move away from there own domestic demand and start exporting more so... again ...in 2018 plus
..for example:
https://www.ft.com/content/00c2029c-287e-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7
You have confirmed "rumors" from two sources. Nothing more.
Just want to answer this for the moment:
"Any chance the Chinese balk at the last second? They've been left at the altar once before (in 2015) and been compelled to show their cold shoulder by a major diplomatic faux pas (in late 2016). What's the next thing that could go wrong?
No....it's a rough 49% ownership of valuable product et al. It's obvious how much value that is to China. Anything could go wrong though..eh?..as to my answer.
"And, lastly, why is it that MPP members in Parliament (who trade in and out of this stock opportunistically) haven't been moving the share price higher? "
I do not know that to be true..or how such could be verified. To play that pitch though....I would suggest that it would be best to not do such given the exposure and issue if such would be found out...and further...be true. Pretty obvious given that the new Parliament came in to play In June of 2016....and here we are again....June 26th for the President. I wouldn't tip my hat off by doing that...would you? ;)
Ha!.... I just got in....and was like...? Looked everywhere I could for answers and....none available.
??? What is going on tonight ???? It acts like it is halted....but it's not.
Yes I did....thanks for putting it forth here.
On another note...I am calling a turn of the worm. We have bottomed...and scheme players have become not as important(be it relevant) as before. Still there...but it seems they have grasped the inventory/turn situation :)
Love those extreme low numbers....very conservative.
Add to that via Somerley:
"The above report also makes reference to the view that China landborne hard coking coal imports are expected to rise by approximately 75% between 2016 to 2022, which is based on a third-party mining, metals and energy-focused research and consultancy firm"
http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-05-25_e_00975cir-20170526.pdf
This is the most bizarre situation I have ever seen. If these are debt holders(entitled to scheme)....then they are complete idiots(not all of course).
Never mind...it's here...just not anywhere else:
http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-06-08_e_00975ann-20170609.pdf
The Company is pleased to announce that the Company’s case under Chapter 15 of the United States Bankruptcy Code concerning the Debt Restructuring has been closed and that the Joint Provisional Liquidators have been discharged from office and released from the performance of their duties by order of the Cayman Court made on 8 June 2017 (Cayman Islands time). Accordingly, the Company is no longer subject to any bankruptcy proceedings in the United States and is no longer in provisional liquidation in the Cayman Island
!!!!!!! Now let us move forward...eh?
Where's the news release?
Thanks for that.
He's correct though..eh? On another note....what ever "water rights" information I read previously must have confused the hell out of me. From the JPL:
The Consortium must, within 2.5 years of being granted the licence, expand coal processing capacity in TT region
to at least 30mt of coal per year and sell the produced coal into at least two foreign markets. The fact that the
Group already has facilities with coal processing capacity of 15mt per year near the UHG mine places it in an
advantageous position as it is able to leverage the same facilities for the TT mine, given that the UHG and the TT
mines are adjacent to each other
The first and second modules of the CHPP commenced commercial operations in June 2011 and February 2012, respectively. MMC’s total name plate ROM coal processing capacity reached 15 Mtpa by the successful commissioning of the plant’s third module in June 2013.
This is interesting:
I also heard a rumor that ETT stopped selling from their East Tsankhi deposit over a price dispute with Chalco. If true, that would have affected the total numbers at GM through May.
Yes....I do think it is a big deal with regards to focus. An expanded sales team is needed for expanded sales...eh?
On another note...I have MMC at a rough 1.5 mnt @ end of May(total from jan start). May being light(as I thought)... through Ganqimaodu border.
Conservative of course..very. This is of course lacking sufficient data.
It is way beyond the time for reality to set in. Let us hope that the reality check is finally in..eh?
I think I am letting too much noise in...reviewing what I said here:
It is my understanding that there needs to be a separate facility to wash coal due to given water sources et al(location thereof..etc).
!! http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-06-05_e_00975ann-20170605.pdf
On 2 June 2017 (Cayman Islands time) the Joint Provisional Liquidators (the “JPLs”) filed papersin support of an application seeking, amongst other things, an order dismissing the winding-up petition filed on 7 July 2016 (the “Petition”) and seeking the JPLs’ discharge from office. Thehearing of the application will take place before the Cayman Court on 8 June 2017 at 9:30 a.m. (Cayman Islands time). Upon a dismissal of the Petition and release of the JPLs (if so ordered by the Cayman Court), the provisional liquidation will be terminated and the Board will resume full control over the affairs of the Company.
The Company and the JPLs would like to take the opportunity to express gratitude to all parties for their efforts in the Debt Restructuring.
No...but then again.....I'm not sure that is a given until I see proof. It is my understanding that there needs to be a separate facility to wash coal due to given water sources et al(location thereof..etc).
Enrestechnology LLC(CHPP) is a sub of Energy Resources llc. If Shenhua is to hold 49% of Energy Resources llc(if that is still the plan)....then i am just not sure.
I tend to believe that the term "incremental" has as much weight as the term "goodwill". I get it...just do not apply it.
There is to be a new facility. I read previously that it was to handle 30 Mnt.....but can not find that piece currently. I did find one that stated a 15 Mnt facility though.
But you have to consider the fact that Energy Resources llc would be giving up 49% to Shenhua
Yep...very busy June ahead.
Election...the court finalization in June..and :
We have reviewed the mining production volumes in 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, and noted that the Group has been in the process of increasing its production since the second half of 2016, with production of hard coking coal in the first quarter of 2017 representing an increase of approximately 212.3% when compared to the same period in 2016. As a secondary check, we have made reference to a report published by the Joint Provisional
Liquidators in August 2016, which sets out projections for the Group’s hard coking coal output, amounting to 4.5 million tonnes in 2017 and 6.1 million tonnes in both 2018 and 2019, under a conservative scenario. It was assumed, under a conservative scenario, among others, that (i)the current operating structure of the Group remains unchanged, and (ii) sales volumes will increase on the basis of a growth in hard coking coal demand from China. The above report also makes reference to the view that China landborne hard coking coal imports are expected to rise
by approximately 75% between 2016 to 2022
! Baogang pushes on with steel expansion
By Meng Fanbin in Beijing and Yuan Hui in Hohhot | China Daily USA | Updated: 2017-05-25 06:58
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2017-05/25/content_29496969.htm
Steel giant Baogang Group is planning to integrate its overseas operations and expand its market share through the Belt and Road Initiative.
The State-owned iron and steel company will set up an international division from its Baotou headquarters in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region.
This is all part of a push by the group to seek overseas financing as it brings together its offices in the United States, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong.
"We will not only explore increasing global sales for our steel products, but also try to expand our role as an integrated trade service provider in the steel sector," said Wu Yongbo, deputy director of strategic development at Baogang.
......Other company plans include expanding iron ore operations in the Tumurtei mine in Mongolia as well as the anthracite project in Jargaland and the coking coal operation in Tavantolgoi, Mongolia.
Now I am just sick!.....my temperance diluted my judgement today. Oh well......it goes both ways...but damn!!!!!!!
yep....and I should have bought way more than I did today....up 24% currently on that spike.
IMF was the hitter
!IMF Executive Board Approves Financial Arrangement for Mongolia
http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/05/24/17193-imf-executive-board-approves-financial-arrangement-for-mongolia