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Could Intel finish the day in the green? Regardless of today's close, now that the downgrades and lowered expectations for Intel have come in I think it is clear the lowered expectations were already priced in. I hold to my earlier predictions that Intel will not see the $12 level this year. Buying between $13-14/share and holding until this time next year, I predict will be a winning strategy, perhaps even a double.
guys, I think subzero just mocked up that link to go with his tongue-in-cheek post about AMD going to 5nm. I don't believe any such story in the INQ every really existed.
what about the powdered strawberries?
I can reach their website at:
http://www.schwab.com
Picked up some INTC shares at 13.88/share.
I'm looking to buy back some INTC if price falls below $14. mmoy, what are the TA charts saying about current support for INTC?
Sold my January 09 27.50 calls for .03 for approx 99% loss. It seems pretty hard to achieve a 99% loss but I did it. I think I should be rewarded with something, kind of like playing lowball. If it were lowball I would have had the best hand.
Since you made the call for this bear market almost a year ago, we are waiting for you to yell 'all aboard'.
I don't think the train is out of the station quite yet. I expect some retracement toward the lows as the dismal holiday shopping numbers come in and some poorer than expected Q4 results are announced. My plan has been to nibble away on pullbacks at some best of breed stocks and ETFs over the next 4 months.
The Treasury Secretary in the Johnson administration (I forgot his name) thought the same thing about financing the Vietnam war. Unfortunately that thinking led to years of high inflation and a >%20 prime interest rate. Bad monetary policy that.
If Nehalem NDAs are lifted Monday, can we expect a number of articles about it's performance to be released next week or will they trickle out slowly? More importantly can we expect these articles to provide some additional momentum to Intel's stock price in the weeks ahead (i.e. from 16 to 18)? Thoughts?
I guess he thinks he is convincing people with these arguments but people that can never admit to being wrong, can also never be convincing when they are right.
AMD share price no longer the cost of a cheeseburger now approaching the cost of an order of fries.
I was stopped out on ALL my CLWR during the recent collapse, but just started a new position (200 shares) yesterday at $6/share. I have another limit order at that same price. I still have hopes for a ubiquitous WiMax in 5 years time.
re: the market is similarly going to tank on multiple bad earnings reports and grim
The market doesn't wait around to hear bad earnings reports. Just the expectation of this news moves the prices downward. What we are seeing right now is the downward slide that you are expecting in Q4 and Q1'09 and while some downside risk (another 8-10%) is still in view, I think that the 'tanking' that is occurring now will be over by the end of the year. I would look for a sideways trading market for Q1 and Q2 with a gradual rebound starting around mid year 09. JMO
I predict that come August of '09 you will be quite happy that you have a large long position in INTC (at these entry levels).
Sold my trade at $14.60 for a .70 profit. I think this is the first profitable trade I have made since mid September.
Yeah FL can probably share the poster child honors with CA for declining RE market. As I'm sure your RE agent has been telling you the key is to price your property significantly BELOW where the market is going to make buyers compelled to act now. Doing this is easier said than done since we all want to hold on to our equity. But if you really want to sell get that price way down knowing that you will be the buyer later on in some other property in this distressed market. Think of it like selling INTC today at $13 but then using the proceeds to buy Eli Lilly at $30. Good luck with your 'somebody', I hope they come thru for you.
This is what needs to happen and it's happening:
Existing home sales jump, prices sink
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/24/news/economy/existing_home_sales/?postversion=2008102412
Following those previous drops the compelling part had been that 'INTC must once again trade at an 18 PE', so we kept saying the stock must be cheap. But now I believe that we can throw out the 'compelling PE' argument and that the 'compelling yield' argument will provide a floor for the stock at around $12. I'm not making a general call that all stocks with >%4 yield have a floor under them. Just that I believe INTC with no exposure to the credit markets and yielding >4% has a floor under it, IMO.
California (poster child for declining RE market) is getting multiple offers on homes. Sales were up 65% in September YoY, of course the numbers were easy to beat and all of these sales are from banked owned houses. The point being that multiple offers are being received as asking prices fall. So what do you know, sounds like classic Econ 1A, as supply moves to the right on the supply curve, equilibrium price falls which is just what is happening. As we experience more capitulation in the housing sector (people giving up on the idea that they 'deserve' some imaginary amount of equity in their home), then we will once again find equilibrium in the housing sector. Dropping the asking price substantially on home resales is the key to recovery in my opinion (and I'm doing my part).
Well call me old-fashioned (or something worse) but I still think people like to own equity in a company that sells things for a profit.
Even compared to GE I would still think an Intel yield of 4-5% would be more compelling since Intel has no real exposure to the credit markets. Paul reiterated last week that even when expanding fab capacity, Intel's model has always been to use cash.
There has to be a level where yields becoming so compelling that buyers will come in regardless of the growth potential of the stock. At $11/share INTC would have a 5% yield. I can't imagine any major institution (that has any money left) be able to pass on that kind of yield and still have the potential for future appreciation of the shares. Because of that, I just don't think the stock will ever see that price, so in my model $11.50-$12 is the absolute floor for INTC and I don't actually think it will hit that floor. It seems pretty safe to me to buy this stock in the $13-$14 range and load up even more if it goes below $13. My 2 cents anyway.
thanks guys!
Sold!
Uh...I want to sell that now...
Sell what?
That thing I just bought....
Bought back some shares at 13.90.
This is the kind of 'gloves off' argument that I am hoping will really have legs for Intel. I am not involved much in software for mobile devices (as either a developer or a user for that matter), so I can't speak for the validity of his argument, but I really want to see Intel be successful in this MID space so I hope this is the beginning of Intel being able to really drive this point home.
I retract my previous post...PSO was brilliant on Fast Money and may have curbed a further pullback tomorrow.
I'd say below $14 sometime this week, perhaps as soon as tomorrow.
A new first for Intel....
For the first time in my wife's 24 years of service with Intel, I looked at her stock options statement from UBS and saw that the entire account is currently worth $0. Ouch!
>> this quarter should have been a good indicator for the global reaction to the financial crisis.
I would argue that next quarter would be the real indicator of this. It is next quarters business that will more fully reflect the changes in purchasing patterns due to the credit lockup and the perceived wealth loss due to the equity market meltdown for both consumers and IT spending.
No wonder Hector's excited...
CEO Hector Ruiz is set to net $3 million for splitting the chipmaker in two.
The payment, disclosed in a regulatory filing Friday, is in addition to a new two-year contract that could be worth as much as $11.5 million for Ruiz to serve as nonvoting chairman of AMD's former manufacturing arm.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/technology-update/10441929.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
I have some Jan'09 27.50 calls I will sell you.....cheap!
Ahhh yes, seeing that syllabus brings back memories of my college days as an Econ major, although the memories are a bit blurry. I'm sure I could use a refresher course.
mmoy, which Fidelity mattress to put cash under? I've evenly divided my cash into 3 Fidelity buckets: US Treasuries (FDLXX), Municipal Money Market (FDRXX) and Cash Reserves (FTEXX). Should I be favoring one of these buckets over the others or is an even split safe enough?
Wouldn't Econ 100B be the core micro course? I would recommend the study of issues related to the money supply and the Fed's role in the credit markets as being more pertinent to the current financial crisis.
How do you play HTE? Buy it and hold it for the dividend? Or is this a stock that you have to watch closely and trade often?
Should we bank on that? :->
Note: I just realized how funny that expression is now; 'bank on it' just doesn't have the same connotation that it used to have.
As part of my diversification strategy I've elected to start buying back the XLK (along with 10 other best of breed stocks) using the proceeds from my INTC sale a few weeks ago.