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AMLO this morning: We are "In Progress"
Tweet from SENER:
President @lopezobrador_He stressed that work is being done on the rehabilitation of the six refineries in @Pemex, in addition to reiterating that progress is being made in fulfilling the commitment to support the entire country.
#ConferenciaPresidente
El Presidente @lopezobrador_ destacó que se está trabajando en la rehabilitación de las seis refinerías de @Pemex, además de reiterar que se avanza en cumplir con el compromiso de apoyar a todo el país.#ConferenciaPresidente pic.twitter.com/yFFmhc0nML
— SENER México (@SENER_mx) March 2, 2020
Last Wednesday Alfonso Romo stated he was confident the announcement would be ready in the coming days.. I have to believe it is imminent.
I will say though, Rocio Nahle being out of the country, makes me feel like it won’t happen until she gets back.. sure would like to know when that will be!
Thanks, IBOW!
Te gusta, Ibow?
Jetfan, good for you. Like Macod said a few weeks ago, “you see it!”
I hope you get rich.
Thank you, Airchair.
AMLO's keeps emphasizing that the Coronavirus is being overhyped. With all of the dialogue that had already been going on with the Health Care plan, this adds even more attention to it; Stealing any spot light AMLO wants to give to the energy sector. The good news is that the individuals analyzing and finalizing the Energy plan, have nothing to do with health care or the Coronavirus. And i'm no economist, but IMO, this outbreak calls for urgency to have the Energy Plan being announced.
As cities are quarantined, GDP will be threatened, and Mexico's recession will accelerate... Further, increased hospitalization in a country where they can't keep the lights is not a good combination. Mexico needs the gas quickly. We know natural gas was already The Priority in this National Infrastructure Plan, so we shouldn't expect any delays due to re-prioritizing the projects.
AMLO stated this morning he will not suspend his work tours in Mexico. I don't want to get into the Coronavirus statistics on this board as we all have access to them. We must pray for AMLO and the other businessmen carrying out this plan, none of them are young.. as well as our elderly.
viva la México en Marzo
“...weeks, (if not) days” is what I think he meant.
Or in other words he’s saying, “it will be in a few days landing us at the end of this week or the beginning of the next”
A Word of Encouragement from Confident Carlos:
Trust that in the next few days the National Infrastructure Plan will be announced
2/27/2020 @ 3am
ADVANCES IN INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN The leader of the Business Coordinating Council said, on the other hand, that he is confident that the official announcement of the details of the National Infrastructure Plan can be made in the coming days. “We had a series of meetings, first with Alfonso Romo, coordinator of the economic cabinet, who is coordinating all this; hence we agreed with the Secretary of Finance and Public Credit, Arturo Herrera. We have been talking with all the authorities and I could say that we are moving forward, ”he said. "I would assume that in the coming weeks, days, we would already have something to declare and announce about the new investments that can be made in energy," said Carlos Salazar Lomelín.
He said that the part of the National Infrastructure Plan related to roads, with concessions “is going well, is being started. You see new investments every day in the newspapers, which are the result of this infrastructure plan, ”he said.
“We totally bet on this."
https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/preocupa-iniciativa-privada-la-pandemia-de-coronavirus
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"In the coming weeks, days.."
I reached out to a bilingual friend for clarification and our English translation is accurate.. - Perhaps he is saying "in the coming weeks, (if not) days"..
At any rate, he's headstrong and i love it. I also love all of the chirping going on from the many involved. Drum roll.
Decomad, we are standing on a mountain of evidence. Please share your reasoning.
Macod, Jackpot,
The first time I read that, I thought it was 5 billion pesos.. not near the magnitude, so I didn’t bother sharing the excerpt. Plus, I didn’t consider Mirage as playing a role in Central America. After a second and third look, that clearly reads $5 billion USD.
Now, why were the other currencies in the article clearly identified as pesos, but this one distinctly identified as USD? Clearly, foreign private investment.... from an American based company.
With over 65 projects dealing with natural gas and fuel distribution... we are standing on a monster.
One more source + a gold nugget:
At any time, the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador must announce the expected national energy infrastructure plan“
“ In storage and distribution of fuels, there are more than 65 projects that require investments of 84 billion pesos.”
https://www.dices.mx/ahi-viene/incierto-el-futuro-energetico-en-mexico/
Timing of Announcement depends on the source:
Carlos Slim after a business meeting yesterday, 2/25:
“Hopefully this will have a conclusion in the coming days. We cannot say exactly when (the agreement) will be ready because we do not have control, ”said the business leader on the list of 137 projects pending approval by the public sector.
https://elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/hacienda-se-reune-con-slim-y-cce-para-revisar-proyectos-de-infraestructura
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Rocio Nahle reportedly said yesterday, 2/25:
“ Pemex has some lists of projects that need and want the private industry to co-invest and that list has been modified and that is why we have not drawn the whole relationship. We are waiting, maybe they add more different projects or projects , ” said Energy Secretary Rocío Nahle, in an interview with Salvador García, at El Heraldo Media Group.
The official said that the package of projects will be released " in the coming days"
https://heraldodemexico.com.mx/mer-k-2/inversion-privada-rocio-nahle-plan-energetico-pemex/
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This article is based on the same interview with Carlos Slim from yesterday, 2/25, (also cited above) but rules out this month:
"We can't say exactly when it will be ready (the infrastructure plan) because we don't have control.. the more investment there may be in infrastructure, the faster we can have economic activity... it is "a huge amount" of issues and projects that are being analyzed related to the infrastructure plan, so it is ruled out that it will be ready this month."
https://www.energiaadebate.com/regulacion/aun-sin-fecha-el-plan-de-infraestructura-energetica/
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This article from today, 2/26,
suggests a probable delay until at least after this week due to Rocio Nahle traveling to India and Saudia Arabia to see refineries. She is leaving today.
https://www.elsoldemexico.com.mx/finanzas/preve-ci-banco-atraso-del-plan-energetico-4889713.html
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Tweet on 2/24 from CRE commissioner, Luis Guillermo Pineda Bernal:
The National Energy Sector Infrastructure Plan, which the federal government will announce at the end of February, will be based in part on the proposals that royal businessmen presented last year to President President Alfonso Romo, head of the Economic Growth Cabinet
El Plan Nacional de Infraestructura del Sector Energético, que el Gobierno federal anunciará a fines de febrero, será basado en parte en las propuestas que empresarios regios presentaron el año pasado al Presidente adelantó Alfonso Romo, jefe del Gabinete de Crecimiento Económico
— Luis Guillermo Pineda Bernal (@G_Pineda_Bernal) February 24, 2020
Are you referring to the announcement?
That was Penny
She may not be, but she is the Secretary of Energy. It's reasonable that she would desire to be present.
I heard Nahle is headed to India on Wednesday of this week to view refineries similar to the plans of Dos Bocas.
This makes me think if the announcement doesn’t come by Wednesday morning, we won’t see it until next week... imo.
I'm sure the release of the 10k helps buyer confidence a little.. but I know so many people who have already sped thru their stop sign by quickly opening account with a different broker. Anyone who has heard this story wasn't phased by a little inconvenience in order to get in.
“He is the go to guy in Mexico”
Wow, what a statement. Mind saying who this comes from?
Tradingonrumors, great post.. 11347
Macod, you know things, so I tend to jump at what you say.
However, I'm not convinced that the article I posted earlier was based on old interviews. This link is in a similar format reporting the same interviews, but explicitly says March...
At least when speaking about the projects Romo "gave emphasis that the idea is to take advantage of low gas prices to industrialize Mexico." That's the right track, Romo. That's the right track.
https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/cartera/proyectos-de-energia-en-marzo-dice-romo
YES!!!!!!!!!!
Good recovery! I’m back to thinking Wednesday at the latest to precede the PEMEX Q4 financials on the 27th.
Cheer$
Macod, w/ regards to Storage Facility Revenue:
Disclaimer: I am new to much of this, so please everyone, feel free to correct me where I may be wrong in my understanding. My intention is to be transparent and accurate.
If the estimates are at $1 billion annually; then under the old OMU w/ OMD, they would have held a 5% carried equity participation interest which translated to about $50,000,000 per year. We could have back then estimated there to be (worst case scenario) three Mirage projects all equal in size. The annual revenue for Mirage would have been $200,000,000 annually.. This is worst case scenario under the old MOU where they only got 5%. I believe this MOU was unfavorable to Mirage and they got something better. Let me explain.
It may have been discussed on the board already, but I'm under the impression the MOU W/ OMD fell thru on behalf of Mirage. I say this for a number of reasons. For one, the $15,000,000 good will deposit never showed up in Mirage's 8k; this reveals that the money never was received. This automatically rules out OMD being at fault because under the agreement, if OMD backed out, they would still owe Mirage $10,000,000 of the good will deposit. I don't see this $10,000,000 anywhere, do you? So, Mirage backed out. The only logical reason I can see them doing this is because they had something better. How much better? This might give us an idea:
According to Mirage's 8k released on 3/27/2019 announcing the MOU, the good will deposit was due by NO LATER than April 14th, 2019. It was never received. Two days after the due date, on April 16th, Argus Media published an interview with Michael Ward. Ward states that the MOU funding the $1.2 billion dollar project was a done deal. Ward stated that once they sold the project to the financiers, they would own a minority stake of less than 20%. That's 4x higher than what was clearly agreed upon in the MOU with OMD. He's obviously talking about a different deal. If this is the case, the storage facility alone would bring in $200,000,000 annually for Mirage.
Based off of this, our worse case scenario of only three Mirage projects all equal in size, now amounts to $800,000,000 annually.
Please, chime in and correct me where I may be wrong. Thanks for reading.
DC, if the 10k contains classified information and that's the reason for it being withheld, wouldn't it make sense then for it to be released after the announcement?
I 100% agree with you on the 10k.
As far as the announcement goes, the "two weeks" he mentioned sounded like a shot from the hip. I expect a concrete date to soon be announced, that only the power of the Mexican government can move.
Good morning everyone -
Romo Garza is sited in the below article saying phase 2 of The National Infrastructure Plan will be announced in two weeks. Aside from the postponement, everything else in the article looks good.
Given the action yesterday, perhaps we continue to increase in PPS until the announcement finally comes. Every penny makes the wait more bearable.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.elsoldemexico.com.mx/finanzas/pemex-no-perdera-su-calificacion-afirma-romo-4866775.html/amp
Thank you -
I remember reading that 45 Bcf is Mexico's current goal...
The fact that the Brasil field has capacity for 786 Bcf is mind blowing.
Outrageous!!! Haha
Combine that with the rumors Trunk Monkey has been hearing .. storage is the smallest project.
Can anyone with industry knowledge contribute to the potential revenues of the storage facility including associated pipelines?
Macod, in response to your post regarding revenue for the storage facility alone; I'd have plenty of homework before I could arrive at a ballpark figure, but I would bet that the info we have available along with some simple math can help us arrive at an estimate.
Do you (or anyone) care to share the projected potential revenue? And just as important, how its arrived at?
Isn’t it amazing, a man-made institution can outlaw truth?
If this happens with hemp, It will with more pressing matters.
Cannabinoid benefits and their supported testimonials are too many to number.. Thank God for the internet, FDA will either have to get on board or lose ALL credibility. Unfortunately for them, they lose either way.
HS - good to hear from you. I wish I knew the answer to your question.
My prediction edit: On or before the 27th, since that is when PEMEX presents their 4th quarter financials.
It would be helpful for them to have it announced in advance so they can better judge the markets leading up to and following both sets of news.
Just so everyone is clear;
The reason for the delay, per Garza Romo; is because (1) there is a TON of interest and (2) the permitting process has been very slow. Those each having an impact on one another.
As for interest, there was a format letter sent to Carlos Salazar Lomelin on Feb. 14th, from what I think* were three renewable companies stating interest in phase 2, AND a commitment to work alongside the current plan in motion. I’m sure renewable companies are not the only ones chomping at the bit. Romo referred to this opportunity for private sector investment as “The Wheel of Fortune.”
As for permitting, we know that Ward began the permitting process for the storage facility back in April 2019, and estimated the permitting process to take 4 months at the very longest. Perhaps someone can speak as to whether or not this cat is in the bag, but as far as I know, that information has not been published on the internet. Because it is extremely likely the permitting for this particular project is complete, we should have confidence. This rather safe assumption further confirms that it is NOT all 137 projects struggling to get permits. Also, based on the remarks of an anonymous lawyer who is personally responsible for about 50 renewable energy projects, it seems as though it is primarily renewables struggling to get permits and are holding up the announcement. Clearly, Carlos Salazar will incorporate them and they clearly are close to having everything finalized, hence the kick to the can has lessened in severity with each postponing... “by the end of February at the latest.” Remember, there is tremendous pressure and urgency for these projects to get kicked off. $1 billion in infrastructure is no light ball to drop.
I apologize I do not have the sources for my info available at the moment. I’ll try to post them later today.
My prediction is we hear a date 1 week in advance.
Best case scenario, this Friday 2/21 we hear that the announcement is scheduled for the following Friday, 2/28.
Just having another scheduled date would be great.. so I can just chill out. Until then; on edge and watching this like a hawk.
Well, I sure hope Mr. Luis is WRONG:
"Luis Miguel Escudero, president of the Hidalgo delegation of the Mexican Chamber of the Construction industry (CMIC), said he hoped that the National Infrastructure Plan will be announced in March.."
https://www.am.com.mx/hidalgo/noticias/Esperan-empresarios-hidalguenses-Plan-Nacional-de-Infraestructura-20200216-0017.html
Thanks, Ibow-
The beginning of next week looks imperative at the very latest.
In the morning of February 26th, the Bank of Mexico is scheduled to present the 2019 4th quarter inflation report. In the afternoon of this same day, the Mexican Association of Stock Exchange Intermediaries (ABIM) is scheduled to present the 2020 Economic Perspectives. The very next day, the 27th, PEMEX is to present their 2019 4th quarter report.
The 2019 inflation report will no doubt be unfavorable, and ABIM's 2020 Economic Perspectives will require the same meat on the bone that we are anticipating.
https://elceo.com/confidencial/informacionconfidencial-meade-no-convence-a-inversionistas-con-su-fibra-e/
Already working on the production of fertilizers: AMLO
President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that they are already working on the production of fertilizers in Agronitrogenados and Fertinal plants, plants linked to Alonso Ancira and Emilio Lozoya.
"These plants are already producing because we are going to use them or even leave them like that so we have to start them to produce fertilizers. We are going to have fertilizers that are going to be delivered to the farmers, this does not stop the judicial process, that continues but these plants are going to be operated with gas that we are going to have for importation pays for the production of ammonia that is the raw material for the production of fertilizers, "said the president.
https://www.elsoldemexico.com.mx/mexico/politica/sigue-la-agenda-de-amlo-este-17-de-febrero-4846405.html
This seems to say that these plants will be up and running because of (1) the coming consistent supply of natural gas and (2) it being imported, will save the costs needed to produce the ammonia for the fertilizer... I'll take any dot I can get. Cheers.
Knowing Mexico, “by end of February at the latest” really means “around the end of February at the earliest”
All good, Macod - Just personally convinced.
And thanks to you, I’m convinced on this as well.
MRGE$$$$