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I know it's not going to solve their capital problems and I'm not saying somebody said that, I'm claiming it's a non-event for the stock price, as well. For the stock to go up we need something that more likely guarantees viability, and yes I think that's a real concern and that not all the stock action is due to HFT.
Although this money is somewhat significant in terms of percentage of total cash, I'd say it's insignificant when looking at the long term health of the company. They either need a lot more money, or something changes in terms of the business outlook like an approval of a product.
Unfortunately this is a significant amount of cash at this point, about 6.5% of the approximately $70M left as of now.
Today's chart is looking very similar to yesterday, both in price and volume action. With any luck the end of the day will also look similar.
I don't think EU submission is going to amount to much for the stock, EU approval would be a whole different story.
I disagree with the no bad news. We could argue all day about how far it should have gone down based on the bad news, but there was plenty of bad news in the September press release - higher burn rate, shelving of programs, delays in programs, etc.. There really wasn't much good news, and the market will not assume things are guaranteed to turn around. It's not at all surprising that many would assume things could get even worse, despite what the company management says. I think things will get better and the market is probably overreacting, but that is also nothing unusual. Not much doubt about it, this is a high risk, high reward situation.
Although there is not much short term risk, there is definitely some risk in the medium to long term that the company could be gone. If they are looking for a permanent CEO, that could pose a real problem. So regardless of that, like Ignatius said, the capital issues need to be addressed.
Although the press release said he will be the interim CEO "for the foreseeable future", which doesn't really sound like they are evaluating him to potentially be the permanent CEO.
Not much of a setup, but maybe enough for this stock.
I think they would be lucky to get a few million up front for HER2. Not much, but better than a money sink.
It's sure getting close, but having some trouble getting there.
Why do you think they will ever be "done"?
Here we go again, nothing to push this stock higher.
This is just brutal any way you slice it.
You can claim it doesn't matter whether the news is good or bad, but if you really look at the earnings announcement with an objective eye, there was no good news there. Faster cash burn rate, NEO dosing pushed out, maybe a delay in the EMA filing for AXAL, stopping development of HER2, etc.. You have to consider that this reaction in the stock price is not all manipulation and HFT, there is real, at a minimum not very good news that could account for a good amount of it.
The more I have looked at it, I am convinced this take down is all about existential risk. You can blame the HFT all you want, but HFT is just taking advantage of the underlying negative sentiment. What convinces me of this is that the take down has all happened since the earnings announcement, and the only bad news there was delays in some programs and a higher cash burn rate, both of which add up to significantly increased risk of not making it to the finish line. What we need is some news that puts some of those fears to rest, either approval of something like AT-014 or a deal to bring in more cash.
The Vienna conference is a non-event, I don't expect any positive reaction for the stock.
I'd like to know what is going on with the USDA and AT-014, it's kind of a black hole with very little transparency into when anything might happen. I agree with others here that although there is little financial benefit from this, the validation of the science could be worth a lot.
I agree $250M is a little more than I would expect up front, but on the other hand $10M may be a little low. I think they could get somewhere in between, although certainly a lot more than $10M if they just get a very low royalty on future sales.
I really don't understand still calling him an interim CEO, but effectively permanent. They may have thought this would send a strong message to the market that something is up, but I think it sends a strong message that they don't know what they want to do. It might be much better to come out and say he's the permanent CEO.
The only good news is basically nothing has happened since Tuesday morning, bounced around a bit with little change. Maybe it will hold at something close to this level.
I'm holding, but not so sure anything is going to change any time soon.
The usual slide into the close today.
I'm not convinced the HFT goal is to drive this down to some level and then turn it around, they may be hoping to scare all the investors enough to the point where it goes out of business. In other words the end game is to push it to 0, not something higher. Only some good news can make that a little bit more difficult.
I hope not, but I'm afraid he's right. Not looking too great for this afternoon.
If the trials are that positive the board certainly would not recommend accepting a low ball offer.
The science is not worthless, but there are definitely risks (many) in bringing that science to market. Right now the lack of any news or communication is definitely helping to cause a feeding frenzy on this stock, some good news could turn things around quickly, but no idea when/if that good news will come.
So much for that idea.
Oh well, looking like another red day, although still better than the last 3 days.
Maybe I spoke too soon, nothing too exciting yet, but much better than the last few days.
So much for that little rally.
Not so convinced, wish I was. Just doesn't add up to me.
I would be thrilled (a little bit) to be wrong.
Fat chance.
While you're here, any idea what is going on?
I find it hard to believe that anyone who may be short covering during this whole thing even cares about the report this afternoon. I don't think there is any reason to believe everything stops today based on this report, it could keep going on for a long time, even if you believe that's what is happening.
Call me a basher if you want, but I'm beginning to wonder if there is a technical problem with NEO. Obviously it's too early to know anything about clinical results, but maybe there is a problem with the technical methods to create the vaccine.
My problem with this short covering theory is this: why do you assume they are covering before some big positive event? Isn't it possible they are just closing out a big winning trade, taking their profits? If they went short at 25, they have made 88% of the maximum profit, why not close it?
Thanks for the articulate and not one sided response. I don't disagree with your points, but I also don't think the manipulation would be possible without something like a lot of stop loss orders (possible) or a lot of people getting scared and wanting to get out (also possible). So the manipulation is really just preying on what is available.
Hard to believe this isn't some real selling over the last two weeks. I still think it's all about existential risk, not anything to do with the science, etc., but there's a legitimate concern that this company may not ever bring a product to market.