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In order for them to see robust positive signs (DFS and OS), the drug must be significantly better than placebo. With a 2:1 randomization (ADXS/placebo), there has to be a significant differentiation between the two study arms, otherwise, they'd be seeing only a marginal improvement (if any) compared to historical "placebo" studies if exist.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02853604?term=advaxis&draw=1&rank=2
Detailed Description:
This is a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized study of ADXS11 001 administered in the adjuvant setting after completion of cisplatin-based CCRT in subjects with locally advanced cervical cancer at higher risk for recurrence (HRLACC), or death. All eligible subjects will have received CCRT administered with curative intent according to institutional/national guidelines as well as meeting the minimum standards defined in the protocol. Subjects must initiate the Screening period within 10 weeks after the completion of CCRT. Baseline radiographic assessments and clinical laboratory assessments must be completed no longer than 28 days prior to and 3 days prior to the first study treatment infusion, respectively. Eligible subjects will be randomized 1:2 to receive either placebo or ADXS11-001.
15. JLE management, new position with 137K shares;
16. Element Capital Mngmt, sold 186K shares, kept 24K shares;
17. UBS, added 10K shares;
18. CVI did not sell as of 9/30 (N.B. their median stay is ~5 mo);
19. Susquehanna closed their puts, and kept their calls. Do they see more of an upside?
JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC 137,847 958 137,847 0.2620% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-14
ELEMENT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 24,432 0.01 875 186,317 0.0464% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-14
UBS GROUP AG 10,716 7112 9,706 0.0204% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-14
CVI HOLDINGS, LLC 3,439,348 5 3,439,348 6.5360% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-14
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP(CALL) 54,400 8841 54,400 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-14
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP(PUT) Sold All 15,700 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-14
14. Adage dumped another 1/2M shares, down to 2.5M shares
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, L.L.C. 2,500,000 0.01 670 500,000 4.7509% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-14
Short interest dropped by almost 249K shares, down to 2.842M shares.
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
10/31/2018 2,842,892 740,112 3.841165
10/15/2018 3,091,473 526,034 5.876945
12. Renaissance Tech increased their position by 755K shares, currently hold 1.191M shares
13. Geode Capital increased by 41K shares, current share count is 244K.
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC 1,191,846 0.00 2559 755,352 2.2649% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-13
GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 243,964 0.00 3724 40,862 0.4636% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-13
The only possible way to get rid of the sharks circling the ship is to start feeding them the old-fashioned paper shares of Advaxis -- they're so toxic a single share could kill a great white shark.
PS. I contemplated about printing a DOC caricature portrait on the mainsail but decided not to offer it as the sharks need to jump out of water to see and get scared of DOC. They're not jumpers after all...
@wmtgreeter
Yes, Sir, that's exactly I was saying in my I-opener post.
Glad ADXS attracts extremely intelligent investors!
Dimensional Fund Advisors: sold out, all 54K shares;
Parametric Portfolio Associates: sold out, all 56K shares;
Citigroup: sold 38K shares, kept 12K shares;
DA Davidson: sold 5K shares, kept 14K.
More to come. Watching Adage and etc.
8. DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP Sold All 54,273 0.0000% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-13
9. PARAMETRIC PORTFOLIO ASSOCIATES LLC 0.00 Sold All 55,732 0.0000% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-13
10. CITIGROUP INC 12,506 0.00 7293 38,747 0.0238% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-13
11. D.A. DAVIDSON & COMPANY . 14,000 0.00 1155 5,000 0.0266% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-13
That's not the real volume. The real accumulation by Blackhole Pharmaceuticals, Pvt has been going on through the dark pools, and it's invisible to the retail. One needs an access to Level 9 of the trading to see it, and some folks here have and see it through all the shenanigans played by the shorts and fudsters.
Could not insert a sarcasm emoji.
Virtu Financial jump back in, a new position re-started with almost 21K shares. Impressive...
7. VIRTU FINANCIAL LLC 20,967 1577 20,967 0.0398% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-13
He's not wasting his time -- he's been mastering his Solitaire skills from 9 to 5, and he got rewarded: 1st place in the Garden State for age 50+.
This Monday morning tidbit provided you by your local office of AARP.
That's a brilliant logic! They haven't done a deal not because they could not find a partner interested in the science to bet on it with their money, but because ADXS is reluctant to partner -- the management is interested in a buyout only. Shooting for the stars!
So your buddy sent you precise locations once he disappeared there?
Are you saying that Advaxis will disappear into a black hole for 17 days and suddenly reappears in Cocoa Islands with a new owner who could not remember how they ended up with Advaxis and knew nothing about LM platform?
Last trade:
666 shares @ $0.55 at 16:00:00
Some message?
Interesting that Blackrock increased their holding by 6K shares. Hmmm, buyout? What say you, CatDog?
6. BLACKROCK INC. 1,402,920 0.00 3886 5,997 2.6661% 13F 2018-09-30 2018-11-09
Something BIG must be coming!
Tried to call 1-800-ADV-AXIS and was greeted:"Welcome to the Paradise!".
Are you saying I was duped when working on my GED? I want my money back!
I doubt any of the 78.9 employees of Advaxis has a GED in Physics.
@wmtgreeter, Certified GED holder with concentration in the Newton's 3rd Law of Mechanics
Or course, you are entitled to your opinion, but not your own facts.
I am puzzled as to why some folks keep insisting that there are dark forces that have been accumulating ADXS shares in a stealth mode for months or even years. Praying for a miracle? That's a strawman's argument. It's even more bizarre to suggest that foreign funds are exempt from the SEC rules that mandate they file 13G/F forms within a certain time frame. No one sane would risk circumventing those rules as the consequences would be too harsh.
It's a pure conjecture at this point. The shares sold/dumped by funds end up in hands of market makers, and partially retail. They do not do into dark holes. But the company appears to be heading into a black hole as the market cap get closer and closer to a no-escape value of $30M.
Yes, we have always been 3-6 months away from something. Perennially shifting the event horizon, or kicking the can as far away as possible.
Depends on the seabed ...
Sorry, there is no direct correlation between a diminishing institutional ownership (now likely below 15%) and retail voting power. The shares dumped by the insties do not end up with retail, they are kept with market makers who may or may not cast votes. Also, retail is not that uniform and votes exactly as this board's group-think consensus could be.
History shows retail has NO power in this equity. Just go back and look how proxy votes have turned out in the past few years.
Nobel Prize in Economics while curing cancer? What can be more exciting than that!
Maybe, just maybe, he also gets a Nobel in Medicine the very same year? Patiently waiting for October 07, 2053.
I'm surprised that you, Hov, are defending these share grants. This is not a business as usual, not anymore. Arguably, they had to hit some milestones/targets to receive these grants. So, what are they? From the outside, it appears there has been very little accomplished. And all this has happened while they are trying to cut the costs, and now this? I thought it's really bad that KB got his 150K bonus after the recent secondary. He just pocketed it, and did not use that cash to buy shares in the open market, or, just waive it altogether. This is massive, and it looks much worse.
I remember, few months ago FBG was cheering Ken for not being as greedy as DOC, and I cautioned him and suggested to revisit this issue later. That time has now arrived, fbg. See for yourself how greedy this "new" management is. Nothing ever changes in this Advaxistan. Ever.
End of the morning rant.
@wmtgreeter
When I saw those shares granted, I almost threw up.
To say I’m surprised would be lying. I’m not surprised. This is what they are: shameless bloodsuckers. They are worried only about their wellbeing, their paychecks, not our money. They will continue sucking this company dry until it’s dead, like vampires do.
Time for class action lawsuits. Period.
Green is the new red.
Red is the color of HOT.
Reincarnation?
I do not believe that Hov has ever "pumped" this stock. I've read several of his articles, and he has always cautioned about the risks involved in this sector and especially in Advaxis. He tries to provide an update on the state of science, and I find that is always balanced view on the fluent state of the immunotherapy.
Thanks for writing those articles, Hov.
PS. I used to visit SA more often, but find a lot of garbage there. So, now I rarely go to there, just to read Hov's article on ADXS.
They might be working on another platform -- let's call it NOKO as the first iteration (disclaimer: nothing to do with North Korea). In a few months, they'd be rolling out that platform, trumpeting it as a great addition to NEO and HOT while spending money on preclinical studies. I think this is an ADD in full blossom -- spreading too thin on too many projects. While the idea might be great with NK, but we have seen that inability to focus on limited number of things to monetize first rather than jumping from one shiny thing to another and not making a progress. It's a big pharma thing to work on multiple projects/platforms to diversify. Advaxis cannot afford this. IMHO.
If we go below $30M, we are done. My threshold for the market cap is $30M, and we are dangerously close to the point of no-return.
Ranya Dajani might have been looking for a new job for a while, or, she could have already found a PR/IR position. Check out her recent LinkedIn activities:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ranya-dajani-37780915/detail/recent-activity/
You need to increase the range from $8-$10 to $8.23-$10.41 to account for earlier surprises. Aim higher, stay positive! We don’t need no negativity!
I have not a single share, and I will hold. I am not a buyer yet. I need to a major change in balance sheet first, and I expect it’s coming. Whether it’s a large stake by a Big Pharma or a cash deal, this is coming within 3-4 months. Then I’m in.
PS. Looks like Ranya Dajani is gone.
DOC is a cash machine. Secondary after a secondary. Another $30M raise after the close.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1444307/000149315218015157/form8-k.htm
Oncosec rules.
Having listened to the call and after a little bit if digestion of what Ken said re Aim2cerv and other trials, I'm suggesting that he somewhat confident the cash is coming relatively soon to support an AXAL program. How that will happen is anyone's guess but I think it's a non-dilutive cash. Likely, big pharma taking a chink of shares at much higher prices. We shall see.
Dr Petit had nothing to say?