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Yep, I am addicted for life to a little fun this way, at least so far. Out of my liquidity approx. 1/1000 committed as lotto, if I saw a reason to max to the gills, 2.5 percent
Maybe, but she managed 1000 fold increase in available shares without repeating the preferred override
The main point is if people are significantly wrong, I currently believe the risk/reward is not as lopsided towards risk as was the case from famous July filing until start of December when most of the convertible damage had come on board.
In the case of a buy out, buy now and that is why I think bad thinking. If it is financing, better to try to time for the optimal buy point as at least 50 percent chance you could buy at less than current price
Those were necessary, but I see as small steps. Revenue potential is scary, I will probably never be capt. 370 again as the first big hurdle is $100 million revenue, if and when.
So in the meantime, may 31 is not when we run out of money but I would assume that is when the fuel low light would come on
It is an interesting possibility given recent times but I have a counterpoint. Why the heck wasn't Simpson straining with all her might to land a partnership when the convertible part 1 was operating ugly as sin and it looked like she could have with partner launched ICC phase 3 last fall. That was my grand hope before the famous July filing.
I still also think most of the tea leaves favor financing. It is just not safe to invest in expectation of a buyout on so little evidence supporting
If you have the pick of the universe as a biotech with a diversification program, would you be interested in delcath? Some investors would think you would not. It is a gamble I will not take based on last 24 months. Either way though this is not a safe place to park much money until we know something
There is no such thing as acquiring delcath cheap. Revenue is so iffy and probably 2025 would be the likely year for ICC approval, which is still no guarantee on either approval or commercial firepower.
Those are the facts to the chemosat story. Unless there is indeed interest, this is a phase 3 story and more tidbits will come in 2nd half of 2018 assuming survival via financing
If buy out interest appeared recently, why is the question. I think after convertible destruction part 1, Simpson would have to have been a magician to keep everything orderly. I hope she remains on board as I think she contributes to FDA effort. Instead of worry about the past, the 2nd largest worry should be enrollment rate. Any chance for end of 2019 or a 2020 approval depends on adequate enrollment.
We will have to agree to disagree over the reverse split. All depends on whether one believes that Simpson is so greedy, that she is at heart a white collar criminal or not. My vote is she has more honor than most are willing to acknowledge, but is probably a cut below the great Cheyenne Body
Simpson has been both abundantly and honorably clear compared to how retail investors veer from company supplied info. That is why I have a dream probably never to be fulfilled of accurate FDA analysis, etc.. To get an approval before last calendar day of 2019 would be a super feat, as I can't recall an awesome beat in history of company.
Press releases just say sometimes "we are here and aware of sentiment". It could be debated but seems like stock price is pretty on target, but offering is properly hidden, we will know when we know
If only that those that lose would be more willing to own it, instead of calling FBI, news station, SEC, grandmother, etc..
Could be the flurry is due to investor relations suggested. Not a big deal, hard news is what counts
I suspect you would go into a somewhat positive mode along with maybe up to half the most harsh critics IF IF IF
Investors will never be tired as a whole, fantasy plays work sometimes, the mystical tipping point, the great game to find
A press release again. Maybe The Goddess has a secondary mission to refute Rainy
I am a middle man. Can't Rap. Can't blaspheme the Goddess and her compadres to no end. There may be a tipping point, but financing has to lead the way
Naysayers don't acknowledge The German reimbursement update is a quality PR and starting ICC is a quality PR.
Revenue is not quality, it is up to Europe mostly. I am skeptical of company getting as much as $10 million in an offering, not because company deficiency or harsh relationship to shareholders or whether they have loving hearts. Just $10 million in a decent manner is a great wall.
Realistically the company needs nearly $20 million raised between now and end of year. Of course the company will do whatever it takes. On the other hand offering holders view personal greed as good, but rationality is another story. If they grabbed 95 percent of the current pie, any more than that is law of diminishing returns. It may not be totally cohesive, but competitive behind the scenes, so it all adds up to maybe some chaos behind the scenes, so we just don't know
Since we are guessing I am in that likely worst case is raise less than $5 million net with units priced at $2.25, but it would not rationally be a good deal for anybody in my limited view
They should get close to $8 million on $2.25 or more per unit to come out looking close to neutral sentiment. Barely neutral as $10 to $12 million would inch closer to okay mark
2018 could be a year of dropping month by month, but there are cues to prevent massive slaughter in most cases. Obviously there will be no announcement for another vote for reverse split for at least months. I've got my little position which probably will not change in size before an offering is done.
Some people don't care about being wiped out before, they are worried that it could happen again. It is not prudent to put life savings here obviously, so being wiped is relative. There is no reason by the way to think this stock could drop 90 percent in a couple of hours unless maybe the company announced can't get financing and don't anticipate any solution. I doubt that will happen, so in the short term I doubt anything greatly dramatic
Grew up a few miles from Texas border in another state. In Texas you would study more the Alamo for history, while I studied more Billy the Kid
Investors wanted to repeat last time in racing downward but the financial law of anti gravity was in effect. Trying to sell downward below $1 million market cap is just not likely
atm financing may have worked before 2016 when market caps were higher, but once the market cap rose in 2017 the company was bumping up against the authorized limit. Low market cap is bad for financing which makes delcath rough to invest in.
If the company can raise $20 million in a successful manner, investors will likely perk up.
2017 was an impossible situation. NO votes in a scenario where no b/o is on the horizon are destructive. Shareholders who lost money and helped create that environment made their bed and don't admit.
I did well, my strongest area used to be mathematics 99 percentile but a calculus book looks like Greek after 40 years
You should be praying for our goddess to turn the little ship and the big ship instead of awarding Pulitzer Prize to those that like lawsuits when you know this is del-dangerous
Who said what state logic man?
I still have a dream among many that if delcath can turn the ship, an over all more fact based, filing reading set of investors comes with
No doubt one of them would be the patent release, non event. People fear the worst about Simpson, but the worst is a needed break with a beautiful offering
Guess you will have to track down the source of press release machine. Hard to know when this low floater may or may not catch accidentally on fire.
I would say that you were wrong. Technically the toxic was over but there was 114 million shares of overhang created to seal the deal.
The convertible cooked this goose down to ashes. At that point, reverse split was a likely future event.
This time there is room to move share count up 1000 fold or run out of money or raise money as high as $3.00 per unit based on current trading
Of course LET is a joke, but so is a professional service did it. If was easy to imagine going to 10 cents on a NO vote and many thought higher, 36 cents was certainly not due to a professional service. Then it went to over 20 cents outside your 14 day period after the famous bankruptcy threat because of pumping over patents. I have always said patents never belonged as a centerpiece to anything
Everybody on the planet knows without your heroic help that gen 2 is a promising product, except one has to draw the line regarding commercial since revenue is flat as a pancake in my assessment for last 6 quarters
Let's keep the feet to the fire. This is as much a natural arena for losing as it is to make money. The needle can go hard in either direction, it is not about the wonderful Goddess letting, like according to such logic she LET the stock go up over 20 fold last June.
Serious investors know to react correctly to negative info in filings quickly imo or if ever great info the same
I consider fiction could blow away Hobbs on this. In retrospect though he did not act in the best interest of shareholders, the size of build up was even fishy long before FDA rejection. It would be an absolutely amazing story if people got Simpson kicked out and then bod hired Hobbs.
I would say legit way to analyze:
65 percent weight to offerings
33 percent weight to enrollment story
2 percent weight to Europe
how much stock is down for all time previous to this RS, no weight at all
Simpson press release SHOULD satisfy critics. Many press releases since reverse split. YES my vast experience would say "hope for the best, expect the worst". Actually worst would be could not raise a dime
No, because I am staying light on this stock until a satisfying offering or greed gets the better of me. As for delcath not being a model of perfection, true enough and certainly Mr. Hobbs built up a company to suit a king when the company turned out to play second fiddle to a hot dog stand
Revenue is plain ugly which supports company claims that the company has no path forward but to get financing on whatever terms can be found.