At a minimum ERHC should have announced that they have submitted pans for the next step to the Kenyan Government and will announce those plans upon approval.

That would have eliminated ALL of the speculation and fear that CEPSA walked. Whatever the 2D showed, CEPSA is willing to pay for the next, far more expensive, steps. That's a big positive!

Most likely, and not the first time....

"Or are you saying that ERHC had an SEC violation?"

Why you act so damned surprised when this company has continuously violated material disclosure requirements is beyond me.

They are above the law, didn't you know that?

My share count hasn't changed and won't until proven. Everything else is noise... including the name-calling.

Haters? ROTFL!

Krom, there was never any deadline for a PR announcing anything. There was a deadline to get the work done and an ASSUMPTION that there would be a PR.

No amount of hand wringing will change what happens.

"Anyone who says they wouldn't welcome a buyout in the .50 - $1 range at this point in time is simply out of touch with reality."

In my opinion, anyone making that statement is out of touch with reality. ERHC has the JDZ.. still secretive. They have Kenya with Cepsa carrying costs, they have Chad and have hinted a partner could be signed soon, and the have the massive unexplored blocks in the STP-EEZ, with seismic showing "very large" structures.

A commercial find in Chad could be worth $1 to $2. Tullow-like success in Kenya worth $4-$6 per share. The STP-EEZ who knows? They are monsterous blocks with seismic (granted old) showing very large structures.

The JDZ? A total wildcard. It still could be the $14 a share discovery the seismic estimated it might be. But, the only way we will know is to ask the improbable from the Chinese and Africans... tells us the truth... verifiably.

Amen.

...at $14

I know it's crazy, but $14K of sell volume knocked $8.4M off the market cap.

I know it's frustrating, but it works the other way too. Far too much emphasis is being put on price, The fact is any stock could open tomorrow at zero or dollars above its previous close. Sinopec announcing phase II in the JDZ and we could open at $2+.

I'm *not* suggesting that is going to happen, but that kind of fickle market is where ERHC is listed. The OTC market is thin, you and you alone could crush the share price with a sell all at market order. Would that mean the fundamentals of the company changed? Nope. It just means that you bailed in a thin market and the MM's took advantage of it.

I'm excited about the Kenya potential, ho-hum with Chad, and thrilled with the EEZ... and I'm not buying that the vast acreage of the JDZ is dry... no way.

All I gotta do is live long enough, and I know that resonates with you Vince. ERHC has turned out to be a tough road while other peers have been born, grown, and sold for billions.

It *is* frustrating. Hang tough!

"Total gross resources at Katmai are estimated at between 40 and 100 MMboe"

OBO-1 was 60-80MMboe. That's commercial oil. The B.S. we are being fed regarding the JDZ is just noise.

Today is the first day in what should be known as the month of truth.

Ahh yes, the white board lady....

Nobody needs to worry about what price to sell. When conditions are in the "sweet spot" Offor will let ERHC go. The only risk is that he is getting older and may reduce his price.

I've claimed for a long time that this will be a $14 stock one day. I may have to revise that... upward, due to all of the new properties they've added.

Sorry ssc, the potential is unbelievable.

I prefer they do NOT give us hype until there is something solid to hype, and I believe that is exactly what they will do.

When the bit encounters black gold, Ntephe will trumpet what he can. Just go back and watch the infamous "Smiling Pete" videos (if Sinopec hasn't force ERHC to take them down). We don't know everything about the JDZ yet, but that uncontainable grin suggests the news wasn't all bad.

So we wait.

Leslie Blair is a self oriented slim ball that will say and do anything to advance himself at anyone's expense.

Look what he did when he was with ERHC... data mining to land the Eland post.

This one is easy...

"Like .90 was too high and .04-.07- .09 is too low !"

I agree completely, and that anomaly will correct itself, so wait for it... without the incessant blaming that it's ERHC management's fault. You bought the double zero green and you didn't get it, that's on you, not them.

Did that efficient market hypothesis signal that Enron, WorldCom, Lehman Brothers, and dozens and dozens of others, were about to fail? If so, why did so many lose so much?

The "market" knows very little, and when it learns "something", it efficiently adjusts the price almost instantaneously.

Imagine what would happen if Sinopec announced it was proceeding with phase 2 in the JDZ blocks 2, 3, and 4. You wouldn't be able to "chase the share price up". It would just be... up.

When they announce it. Not before.

The significance of that pipeline to ERHC cannot be overstated.

It's HUGE!

But did they have...

white rice or fried rice with their General Tso's?

If we must discuss something, let's make it something that matters!

I know, right? I've even seen some people demanding a level of transparency that would allow the company's competitors to destroy it before it has a chance to fly.

That's short sighted stupidity, IMO.

"Swala is in with a 'all or nothing' approach"...

And if Tullow hits, CEPSA can always buy Swala's then de-risked stake. Sure, it may prove to have been cheaper to stay, but with a lot of risk.

Who knows.

Why didn't CEPSA keep both? They have the resources.

The only thing I can come up with is Kenya only wants CEPSA to have 1 block, so they were forced to choose. Maybe little and inexperienced Kenya simply doesn't trust the well funded UAE owned CEPSA... yet.

All species in the area are trying to stay as high on the food chain as possible.

Slide 6 will offer clarification...

http://www.loga.la/flash/HS/kevinhillLSUS.pdf

Why would you think that? 10 years of history shows that *nothing* any of us used to predict what this stock would do was close to accurate.

"The Chinese should have had their behinds kicked out of there ages ago!"

For what? For following the PSC to the letter and using the "agreed to" clause allowing for a 5 year tight-hole for competitive reasons?

I don't know whether it'll be good or bad, but the JDA has the authority to release the drilling results by the end of September. If they do nothing, the results were bad. If they trumpet what was found, or the Chinese are granted an extension, then there is still much more to the story and we wait.

This is also worthy of a repost...

http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2013/04/18/subsidiary-of-chinese-group-sinopec-plans-to-explore-oil-block-in-sao-tome-and-principe/

Four years after drilling the JDZ, the Chinese want to drill the EEZ.

That says something.

You are Googling that which doesn't exist... that's why you can't find it. No seismic shoot ever produced oil estimates. The estimates come from the NEXT step in the process... the volumetric analysis.

Google that.

Verbosity is a curse.

Tullow's reserves are roughly 1.5 times what Addax had when Sinopec bought them, yet it's market cap is not 1.5 times what Sinopec paid for Addax.

Either Tullow is undervalued by the market or Addax was overvalued by Sinopec.

Just pondering.

New Africa Oil Kenya update...

http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/operations-update.asp

Manga was the equivalent of lunar acreage... no matter how much oil was there the pipeline costs would make it non-commercial.

Put the bottle down, LOL!

Yep.

ROTFL! Sadly true.

The biggest question in my mind is why are they using the fault depth as an excuse for not finding oil?. Everything on that slide was known for many years PRIOR to drilling.

That comparison doesn't hold either. You are comparing Addax's portfolio-wide 111 promising traps to ERHC's Kenya block alone. Does ERHC have a significant number of promising traps across it's portfolio in Kenya, Chad, the EEZ, and JDZ? The JDZ had 52 leads alone, only 5 were drilled.

It is possible, even likely, that ERHC's portfolio holds more potential than Addax had. Let's wait for the seismic to make that call.

Many years ago I posted the following, and I stand by it; "From current levels to a buck will be harder than from a buck to $10".

A couple of pearls and a little momentum will take it there.

I disagree.

Addax Petroleum had 537M barrels of proven when acquired by Sinopec for nearly $10B ($7.24B + debt settlement)...

"Sinopec Group Completed the Acquisition of Addax
22/08/2009

Sinopec Group Completed the Acquisition of Addax
China Petrochemical Corporation ("Sinopec Group") is pleased to announce that the acquisition of Addax Petroleum Corporation ("Addax") was successfully completed after nearly six months of due diligence and negotiation.

Sinopec Group signed the acquisition agreement at an offer price of CAD 52.8 per share on the 24th of June 2009. It was approved by the Chinese regulatory authorities on the 6th of August. All pre-requisite conditions have been satisfied, hence Sinopec Group announced the successful closing of this transaction today.

Addax Petroleum Corporation is an independent oil producer, established in 1994 and headquartered in Switzerland. It was listed on both Toronto and London stock exchanges with common share totaling 157.6 million and now has more than 860 employees. The company recorded USD 3.762 billion in revenue for the year 2008, with a net profit of USD 784 million and an operating cash flow of USD 1.521 billion.

Addax Petroleum's assets are primarily located in Nigeria, Gabon and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and have a good combination of both oil and gas reserves. It has a total of 25 licensed blocks, of which 15 are under exploration and 10 are under development. Of the total blocks, 17 are offshore and 8 onshore. Addax has 537 million barrels of 2P (Proved + Probable) equity crude reserves, and 738 million barrels of 3P (Proved + Probable + Possible) equity crude reserves. In addition, Addax has 111 promising traps which await drilling.

At the time of Addax's Q2 earnings the company produced an average of 143,000 barrels of crude per day (approximately 7 million tons per year), of which 72.2% comes from Nigeria, 19.5% from Gabon and 8.3% from Kurdistan. Based on an initial development plan, its near-term production volume is expected to reach 10 million tons/year."

http://www.euro-petrole.com/sinopec-group-completed-the-acquisition-of-addax-n-i-3548

$10B / 537M barrels = $18.62 per barrel of proven. Granted there is an intangible value for potential in there, but how can that value be assigned... and what is the intangible value of ERHC's growing portfolio of assets?

By those numbers, ERHC would need 408M barrels of proven to fetch a $10 share price. That's possible in Kenya alone, albeit a long shot... but add in Chad, the STP-EEZ, the mystery known as the JDZ, and soon to maybe be announced Ghana... $10 isn't as pie in the sky as you think... MULTIPLES of that are possible!

There are a lot of irons in the fire that could be getting hot at the same time... a perfect storm... and a good storm if your a shareholder.

Then how do you interpret this?

"richkan Thursday, 04/06/06 12:32:46 AM
Re: Fishdog post# 41413
Post # of 288609

Per head honcho onsite:
"This is the biggest thing we've ever seen". "


That is what he said about OBO-1...

I WAG'ed it from the current oil price and these production numbers...

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=104230941

Krom, consider this...

Assume 760M shares outstanding.

Assume $2 share price.

Assume $40 per barrel net profit after exploration and lifting costs.

38 million barrels of oil is all that is needed to reach the above. We really are talking tiny, tiny "pearls" here. A Tullow-like billion barrel find on shore would put ERHE over $20... and maybe $30... overnight.