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Stock Market Major Wave 4 Underway, or Underway Soon - 8th Nov 15 - Tony_Caldaro
It’s Now, or Never for Yellen, Impact on Gold and Stocks - 9th Nov 15 - Bob_Kirtley
Silver Price Forecast Plunge to as Low as $10 - 9th Nov 15 - Clive_Maund
A quick technical take suggests -
1. Stocks are clearly overbought as illustrated by the MACD and are imminently due a correction.
2. Stocks are likely to trade lower into the December 15th / 16th Fed Meeting, which does not give the Stocks much TIME to rally i.e. only a couple of weeks.
Fed December Interest Rate Hike Stock Market Panic Trigger For New All Time High?
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52918.html
Will The Stock Market Crash In 27 Days?
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NOW COMES FEDSPEAK: Here's a preview of this week's big market-moving events
http://www.businessinsider.com/monday-scouting-report-nov-11-2015-2015-11
Economic Calendar
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
...Buying stocks with newly-created money is bad for exchange rate stability, but raising interest rates to protect a currency is bad for equity market valuations. One or the other will have to give.
We’re All Hedge Funds Now, Part 3: Even The Swiss Are Gambling
http://dollarcollapse.com/money-bubble/were-all-hedge-funds-now-part-3-even-the-swiss-are-taking-insane-risks/
10 Most profitable mining companies based on first-half results: 2015
1. BHP Billiton - $4.26 billion
Despite claiming the number one spot, BHP Billiton’s profits fell significantly in 2015. The world’s biggest miner saw a 47.4 percent slump in the first-half of 2015, compared to the previous corresponding period, which saw profits reach more than $8.1 billion.
http://www.miningglobal.com/top10/1748/10-Most-profitable-mining-companies-based-on-first-half-results:-2015
Treasury 10Y Yield Jumps Over 10 BPS To 2.333 Percent On Over 55 Job Gains
https://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2015/11/06/treasury-10y-yield-jumps-over-10-bps-to-2-333-percent-on-over-55-job-gains/
https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BXE+Interactive#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (TSX:BXE) engaged AltaCorp Capital to market a large range of assets across Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan. The assets are 84% weighted towards gas – far more than the company’s overall gas weighting of 72% in Q2 2015 – and are currently producing 1,376 boe/d. Despite the large range of areas in the sale, which cover a total of 197,872 acres, the assets represent just 3.4% of current Bellatrix production. The sale appears to be primarily aimed at trimming the company’s undeveloped land base. The sale of assets with a high gas weighting stands in contrast to the fact that the company has reduced its oil weighting in recent periods.
http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/312313/mamonthly1a.pdf?submissionGuid=39288e94-560e-40dd-a333-40bbcbd7497e
Goldman Sachs Warns Against Long-Term Oil Investments: Linn Energy LLC (LINE),
http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/05/19/goldman-sachs-warns-against-long-term-oil-investments-linn-energy-llc-line-murphy-oil-corporation-mur-chevron-corporation-cvx/
Goldman Sachs Warns Against Long-Term Oil Investments:
http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/05/19/goldman-sachs-warns-against-long-term-oil-investments-linn-energy-llc-line-murphy-oil-corporation-mur-chevron-corporation-cvx/
Dividend Analysis: Chevron Corporation (CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/11/06/dividend-analysis-chevron-corporation-cvx-exxon-mobil-corporation-xom/
Dividend Analysis: Chevron Corporation (CVX), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
http://www.smarteranalyst.com/2015/11/06/dividend-analysis-chevron-corporation-cvx-exxon-mobil-corporation-xom/
10:49AM Stocks Fluctuate Amid Rate Speculation
11:19AM Robust U.S. jobs report bolsters case for December rate hike
10:56AM One of Yellen's Most Important Labor Market Measures Now Looks a Lot Better
08:28AM Winter stocks forecast: A chance of a stock market spike and a big correction
08:50AM Bond Traders See 70% Chance of Fed Rate Increase in December http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/bond-traders-see-70-chance-of-fed-rate-increase-in-december
08:33AM Treasuries Tumble as Job Gains Back Case for Fed Rate Increase http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/treasuries-tumble-as-job-gains-back-case-for-fed-rate-increase
09:58AM Higher Wages Will Make Rate Rise an Easier Decision for Yellen
http://www.finviz.com/news.ashx
...The world's largest oil trading company Vitol said they expect a "dramatic build in oil inventories over the next few months." If oil builds as we expect we could see a dramatic drop in prices. Most oil analysts believe the +20% spike in crude over the last two weeks was short covering and a new move lower is ahead.
http://kingworldnews.com/danger-one-heavily-watched-indicators-world-just-hit-80-year-high/
OUT @ 6.22 IN @ 5.90 on MON
OUT @ 6.19 IN @ 6.02 on THUR
I picked up 60 shares this week on swing trades. I Could have done better. But, hey its all fun.
Maybe Friday the 13th will be red on the SP.
Thanksgiving SP up.
Mid DEC 15 Rate hike?
U.S. stocks fall, dollar and Treasury yields rise
..."Investors have adjusted their probabilities, adjusted their risk, adjusted their positions; now they're going to see what happens tomorrow," said John Briggs, Americas head of strategy at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut, referring to Friday's jobs report. [L1N13021H]
Read more at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0SU03A20151105#oz3VBiWtpwKLtzlz.99
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0SU03A20151105#fe8hXzXheF9sAmW2.97
Fed's Lockhart Says Rate Liftoff 'Will Soon Be Appropriate'
Which Sectors Stand to Benefit When Rates Go Up?
Treasuries Paying 4.5% Are More Than a Decade Away, MetLife Says
Friday jobs report making bond-market investors panicky
...Bond markets most vulnerable to the Fed than any other market, strategists say
Treasury yields hit fresh 4-year high ahead of jobs report
Watch out! Dollar bulls are on a stampede
Feeling ignored, Fed jolts markets to prime them for lift-off
Dollar firm as traders keep powder dry ahead of payrolls data
NEW YORK - The dollar rose against most major currencies on Thursday, hitting a more than two-month high versus the yen, as comments from Federal Reserve officials reinforced a growing view that the U.S. central bank would hike interest rates next month.
jobs report on friday
Recent History Of This Indicator
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 190,000 in October which would be a nearly 50,000 increase from September and strong enough to keep expectations alive for a December rate hike. The unemployment rate is expected to slip 1 tenth to 5.0 percent, in what would be another positive for a rate hike. And average hourly earnings are expected to show some pressure, up 0.2 percent vs no change in September.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
Stocks seeing 'bear market' rally: Peter Boockvar
Bearish sign: Investors sell both stocks and bonds
For stocks, it looks like 2011 all over again
TVIX 20dma(6.70) next target, top Bollinger(8.34) now below top Keltner(8.45) same setup before big spike to (15.99) & (19.90),
This Is the Worst U.S. Earnings Season Since 2009
Biggest quarterly drop since the aftermath of the financial crisis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-04/this-is-the-worst-u-s-earnings-season-since-2009
Dollar in demand as Fed hammers home December 'liftoff' risk
SYDNEY - The dollar stood at three-month highs against a basket of major currencies on Thursday following a jump in U.S. Treasury yields as Federal Reserve officials hammered home the message that a December "liftoff" in U.S. rates is a distinct possibility.
Bonds Tumble Around the Globe as Fed Rate Odds Climb Past 50%
...“Bond yields are rising around the world in sympathy with Treasuries,” said Hajime Nagata, a debt money manager in Tokyo at Diam, which oversees $142.6 billion. “The market is reaffirming that the Fed will lift off in December.”
...Treasuries are driving borrowing cost higher
...Traders see a 58 percent chance the Fed will raise its benchmark by its Dec. 15-16 meeting, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/bonds-tumble-around-the-globe-as-fed-rate-odds-climb-past-50-
The Short-Squeeze-Driven Melt-Up Continues: Crude, Copper, Stocks, & Bond Yields Soar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-03/short-squeeze-driven-melt-continues-crude-copper-stocks-bond-yields-soar
Hedge Funds Burned by Silver Bets as Fed Signals Rates May Climb
..., Federal Reserve officials signaled U.S. interest rates could climb in December.....
Markets changing...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-03/hedge-funds-burned-by-silver-bets-as-fed-signals-rates-may-climb
Hedge Funds Burned by Silver Bets as Fed Signals Rates May Climb
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-03/hedge-funds-burned-by-silver-bets-as-fed-signals-rates-may-climb
Bond Yields Grind Higher As December Rate Hike Suddenly All Too Real
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-03/bond-yields-grind-higher-december-rate-hike-suddenly-all-too-real
Dell eyes $10 billion asset sales ahead of EMC merger - sources
Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/03/us-dell-assetsales-exclusive-idUSKCN0SS02Y20151103#vb4hDLzi3DJulPCt.99
...Dell agreed last month to buy data storage company EMC for $67 billion, in a move that would transform the No. 3 computer maker into a leader in storing corporate data and shift its business away from the stagnant consumer personal computer market.
Bring it Back Home!!!
http://investor.usatech.com/
Real company. Looking foward to the future.
Multiple ways to accept credit/debit at the POS
Choose from a range of secure, cashless acceptance alternatives, including our contactless-ready ePort G-series that can be retrofit on most vending machines or installed at the point of manufacturing. For customers with delivery and other “on the go” cashless acceptance needs, ePort Mobile integrates with data from your other cashless locations for seamless and efficient management of your cashless locations. Our Web service, Quick Connect, is used by many developers who are looking for a simple way to incorporate cashless in their designs with a proven and reliable partner in cashless payment for self-serve retail.
https://www.usatech.com/products-services/cashless-acceptance/eport
Insiders vs. Dumb Money… Here’s What They’re Telling You
http://www.leadingtrader.com/public/021115-2/
...IT LOOKS TO ME, THAT THE CROSSOVER IS WHEN THE MARKETS GO DOWN, EVERYTIME.
01:50PM Visa to buy Visa Europe in deal worth as much as $23 billion
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/02/us-visaeurope-m-a-visa-idUSKCN0SR16520151102?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
10:22AM Visa Agrees to Buy Visa Europe for $23.4B
http://www.finviz.com/news.ashx
VIDEO LINK...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-02/visa-agrees-to-buy-visa-europe-for-23-4b-igi3i3hr
THAT IS WHEN I SOLD... TVIX @ $6.22
Day’s Range
5.58 - 6.26
Mean while, Russia and company are overtaking the Middle East.
Some calling it WW3. Seems Euphoric when NATO/US and Russia come toe to toe, in Syria, Iraq.
Nikkei 225 -399.86 -2.10%
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-pacific
All Asia markets Red....
S&P 500 2,100.31 +20.95
Volume
310.28m
Nov 2, 2015, 2:44 p.m.
Previous close
2,079.36
Day low
Day high
2,081
2,100
Open: 2,080.76
52 week low
52 week high
1,867
2,135
USO broke its short-term support last week, but quickly jumped back above. This is one more index which will require clarification over the next week or so. It appears that we are going through a period of uncertainty.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52847.html
High Yield Index and the VIX: Aug 1998 through July 2013
Source: Bloomberg, using the Barclays High Yield Index and the VIX: Aug 1998 through July 2013
https://blog.principal.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/VIX-and-HY-Spreads.jpg
From the desk of risk: How to Hedge Tail Risk Efficiently
http://blog.principal.com/2013/08/06/from-the-desk-of-risk-how-to-hedge-tail-risk-efficiently/
S&P 500/US Dollar Index Ratio Warns: October Rally Will Fail, Bear Market is Here
by Geoffrey Caveney • October 31, 2015
Historically, the performance of the S&P 500 Index relative to the US Dollar Index has been a good indicator of bull and bear markets. This relationship is expressed in a ratio – the value of the S&P 500 index divided by the value of the U.S. Dollar Index:
•In bull markets, the S&P 500/US Dollar Index ratio moves upward, the 200-day moving average slopes upward, and the ratio is above the 200-day moving average.
•In bear markets, the ratio moves downward, the 200-day moving average slopes downward, and the ratio is below the 200-day moving average.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/31/sp-500us-dollar-index-ratio-warns-october-rally-will-fail-bear-market-is-here/
The Fed Just Whacked Corporate Earnings
The markets seemed to like what the Fed had to say yesterday, including the part about definitely, for sure, no kidding around this time raising interest rates in December. Especially elated were currency traders, who bid the US dollar up on the news.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52823.html
Fed’s US Debt Bomb and Interest Rates
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52836.html
....Today’s Fed-conjured fantasyland of record-low interest rates combined with record-high federal debt levels is exceedingly dangerous.
...Fed rate-hike cycles are very damaging to stock markets.
...The dire realty of this situation likely means lower rates for longer. While the Fed may make isolated token rate hikes here
Greece outlines bank recapitalization plan
By Nektaria Stamouli
ATHENS–Greece unveiled its bank recapitalization framework Friday and is expected to vote it into law Saturday evening, hours after the European Central Bank releases results of its health check on the country’s four big banks.
This will be the third capital increase of the country’s battered lenders since Greece’s debt crisis erupted in 2010 and has to be completed by the end of the year, before the deposit bail-in instrument becomes effective at the beginning of 2016.
According to the draft bill, the lenders will be able to use common or preferred shares, as well as other financing instruments to be bailed in.
The country’s state-owned recapitalization fund, the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund, will cover any part of the capital shortfall that isn’t covered by private investors via a combination of new shares and contingent convertible bonds that banks will issue. The new shares will have full voting rights.
The bill states that the stability fund will participate in the recapitalization of the banks over the coming months with significant funds.
The fund owns majority stakes in all Greek banks except Eurobank, in which it holds a 35.4% stake.
“The government aims to attract foreign investment, with the participation of the private sector [in the recapitalization], but also the state to maintain a significant stake in banks, so it can increase its profit when growth comes,” a finance ministry official said.
“The participation of the public should not be unlimited, as control in banks is needed but not at a stake that would prevent individuals to invest capital,” the official added.
Under the country’s third bailout agreement reached in mid-July, some EUR25 billion, or about $27 billion, of public money was earmarked to recapitalize Greece’s banks, which suffered major depot flight during the six-month-long negotiations between the Greek government and the country’s international creditors.
The ECB is expected to announce Saturday the results of the stress test for Greece’s four largest banks– National Bank of Greece SA, Piraeus Bank SA, Eurobank Ergasias SA and Alpha Bank AS–which will determine how much capital they need following the recent downturn in the Greek economy.
“Overall capital requirements are expected to be at around EUR15 billion, with the banks aiming to raise EUR5-EUR6 billion of that from private investors,” said Wolfango Piccoli, managing director of advisory firm Teneo Intelligence, in a note.
“Another EUR3 billion may come from bond swap offers. This would leave the total size of the required recapitalization from public funds at a manageable EUR7-EUR8 billion,” he said.
This story originally appeared on WSJ.com.
http://stream.marketwatch.com/story/markets/SS-4-4/
...investors grappled with the prospect of higher borrowing costs in the United States, as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise rates amid the backdrop of slowing global growth.
...On Thursday, the U.S. central bank held policy steady and left the door open to hike interest rates for the first time since 2006 at its Dec 15-16 meeting.
Markets | Thu Oct 29, 2015 8:39pm EDT
Asian shares edge down as investors nervous over Fed path
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-global-markets-idUSKCN0SO01H20151030
Today's Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 GDP Q3
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
3:00 Farm Prices
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html