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Thanks sevted.
I don't recall having seen that MPE5 info. Now it all makes sense.
Would be wonderful to see a flood of MPE & G2 rollout news over the next 6 months. DSNY could be the stock of the year.
<I'm a bit newer to the story and am trying to understand why the price pulled back so much last month. Destiny fell from 79 on Nov. 29 to 61 on Dec. 10.>
Don't know for sure, but this is what I wrote in a message on Dec.31st as to the possibility of why the share price dropped:
"Well, we should find out beginning Wednesday if tax loss selling has been a major factor in the recent DSNY share price deterioration. It's very possible it could be the case because just about every purchase made in the last 9 months has been a loser. Some as much as 40%.
The fact that the real fall (from around .90 to .60) didn't begin until around November and was more a slow drip on lowish volume rather than a sudden drop on large volume would also indicate more tax loss selling rather than any big negative in the fundamentals.
If that is true, a retrace to higher levels most likely will occur even without any spectacular immediate news."
<Before I pull the trigger and load up tomorrow, am I missing anything negative?>
Nothing really apparent. The company is going along doing their normal amount of business and making a small profit. The new Play MPE 5 was launched last May. The lack of an increase in the MPE revenues since then could be considered a negative, but I don't know enough about the normal time it should take to integrate a new product with existing clients or for it to be accepted by new clients in other countries with different languages. Also I believe they are waiting for the European watermarking patent.
Some here have said that the ClipStream G2 launch has been delayed. THAT IS NOT TRUE. At the last Conference Call Mr. Vestergaard said the official roll out of that product would not be until Spring although they might do some small business with it before then.
The really big money to be made with this stock is dependent upon G2 being successful. If it is then a 10,20 or 30 bagger from here is not unreasonable. The fact that the company has already bought back over 2M shares and is looking to buyback another 1M seems to indicate that they feel pretty confident of success going forward.
Some companies do conference calls from their annual meeting. Don't recall if DSNY has in the past. Anyway, their annual meeting is coming up on February 28th.
So you agree with me that the only reason for a share buyback at this point was to stop the slide."
That's not what I said. I said it had the effect of stopping the slide. However, that is not the same as saying that the reason was to stop the slide. For the reason, you would have to ask Mr. Vestergaard and the companies executives. They are the only ones who know the actual reason.
Remember, they had previously authorized and bought back 2.2M shares. There is no indication that the purpose of those buybacks was to stop a slide in the share price. I primarily believe that both the previous buybacks and the current one was motivated by their belief that the shares were substantially undervalued and that the buyback would result in a benefit to the shareholders.
<Actually, I said it would improve the share price in the long run, but would be ugly in the short run, which is exactly what is happening.>
Wrong again. Repurchase was announced Dec. 10th with share price at .62. It has closed at that price or higher every day since.
You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. Share price had been in a steady slide from .98 down to .62 until that announcement. Coincidence that it stopped there? I think not.
<Honestly, I believe you've missed the point of almost everything I've posted.>
I don't think so. The great majority of your messages have been denouncing the company for doing a share buyback. Somewhat of a point could be made that the company is not liquid enough to do so, but that is questionable. My main objection to your buyback messages was your contention that the buyback itself would cause the share price to go down. That makes no sense at all. Except for very unusual situations, buybacks tend to support or enhance share price. I think that has happened in this instance also. It was done at a time of very little public interest in buying this stock and when I think there was plenty of tax loss selling going on. Hard to say how low the price would have gone if those 50,000 & 100,000 share bids at .58 to .61 hadn't been there. Also any shares they picked up at those prices are now worth about 20% more. So far so good.
Regarding warrants, I believe this is the last info published:
http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Destiny_Media_Technologies_(DSNY)/Warrants
All those warrants have been either exercised or expired and I don't think any more have been issued, but I am not positive about that. You could probably email the company and find out if you think it is important.
VERY INTERESTING.
Share price is up 22.5% on no news and nobody even making a comment about it.
That's a good sign because I think everyone (except anydaynow & brooklyn) think this move only brings the share price back to being really undervalued rather than CRAZY UNDERVALUED.
Any substantial positive news about G2 getting good acceptance could make this a 10 bagger or more.
In watching the trading, every day there is a BIG BUYER placing bids through UBSS at around .60. Right now the bid there is 40,000 shares. Yesterday it was 100,000. Most days some of those shares get sold into. Haven't watched it close enough to know the actual numbers, but my guess would be that buyer has picked up maybe about 200,000 shares. Wouldn't surprise me if that was DSNY.
Whoever it is, they are not agressively buying, but rather waiting for the price to come to them. So it is supporting the price but not pushing it up.
<No need worrying about getting ALL the revenue when we haven't got any of it yet. >
I think maybe you misunderstood what Mr. Vestergaard said. If the finished version of ClipStream G2 does automatically switch IE8 and below users to the original ClipStream then they would be making it possible for ALL users to play the videos. At least that's how I would interpret his statement.
From Steve Vestergaard:
"The technology requires IE 9 or above as do all the alternatives to Clipstream (HTML 5).
About 12% of internet users use IE 8 or below. For those users, we can autodetect and offer them our old Clipstream. We haven't done that in the Showcase. We expect this 12% figured to decline rapidly as Microsoft is going to be aggressively pushing IE 10 as they need their own users to upgrade to HTML 5."
<With buildout of G2 and stock buy-back I would expect cash to be "at best" the same as last report...>
Quarterly report will cover Sept.,Oct.,Nov. Buy back wasn't announced until December 10th so that would have no effect on cash balance at end of Destiny's 1st quarter.
Other than that, agree pretty much with your message.
SOMEHOW, even without your expert advice, over the last year or so Destiny management has been able to build their MPE business, pay for the development & patenting of ClipStream G2, buy back a couple million shares of their own stock, win 2 or 3 lawsuits, and even show a small profit.
Perhaps they ACTUALLY DO KNOW a bit more about how to run their business than you do.
< My thinking is that such a large repurchase might indicate a possible lack of commitment to the launch of the new Clipstream, using cash for another purpose.>
WOW! Now you are going from zany thinking to absolutely crazy thinking. What you just said is that the company doesn't believe in ClipStream G2 so they don't want to spend money launching it. Instead they will buy back shares which of course will end up being worth less than they paid for them because ClipStream G2 will fail.
With logic like that you might want to check in to your local mental health center for some serious testing.
brooklyn, implying that the company announcing a stock repurchase was the reason for an increase in short sales is another one of your bizarro theories.
Here's what you should do. Each day pick out a company who announces a share repurchase and short their stock. If you do that, it won't be long before your messages here disappear because you'll have to sell your computer along with everything else you own to cover your losses.
<wonder why short interest jumped so much in December ?>
First of all, the short interest in this stock is insignificant. The rise might possibly have been a larger holder hedging against the possibility of a fiscal cliff debacle.
I think Clarus Securities pretty much hit the nail on the head with this paragraph in their report on Destiny Media:
"Currently the market seems to be only ascribing value
to the Play MPE opportunity. If Play MPE EBITDA
was to reach $3.25M and assuming 12x EBITDA (in line
with the comps), Play MPE would be worth ~$0.75 per
share. Given Clipstream is very close to
commercialization and could have initial contracts in
early 2013, the market is likely to begin to build in
more value for this business unit over the next three
to four months."
That report was written mid October, so 3 to 4 months from then would be mid January to February. We need some positive G2 news in order to set a match to this firecracker.
Anyone who hasn't read the Clarus report should certainly do so:
http://www.dsny.com/news/media/DSY-2012-10-09-ClarusWatchListRR.pdf
Tax Gain selling is also a possibility but probably to a lesser extent.
The main thing is that I would rather the recent downward action be based upon tax selling reasons rather than anything business related.
I just haven't been able to come up with anything negative to cause this drop other than tax selling. Their basic MPE business is stable and should expand substantially in the coming year. The only real negative would be if they are finding out that nobody is interested in ClipStream G2. That info would only be known by the executives of the company and if that were the case, it doesn't make sense that they would want to repurchase another 1M shares.
Well, we should find out beginning Wednesday if tax loss selling has been a major factor in the recent DSNY share price deterioration. It's very possible it could be the case because just about every purchase made in the last 9 months has been a loser. Some as much as 40%.
The fact that the real fall (from around .90 to .60) didn't begin until around November and was more a slow drip on lowish volume rather than a sudden drop on large volume would also indicate more tax loss selling rather than any big negative in the fundamentals.
If that is true, a retrace to higher levels most likely will occur even without any spectacular immediate news.
CONGRATULATIONS brooklyn!
In just the last couple of days you have made 2 of the most zany statements I have ever seen on a stock message board:
1. The company inaugurated a share buy back in order to DEPRESS the share price.
2. The company has no more info regarding what their future may hold than you do.
It's one thing to be skeptical, it's quite another to be goofy.
<You've gotten the patents, done the beta testing, tweaked some, now you're ready to launch.>
I think you have already answered your own question about why they are willing to spend some cash to buy back shares. They have already spent the great majority of the money necessary for product development and product protection. They have also said that the actual product launch will not be until Spring. In the meantime they are marketing it by talking to current customers and others in the industry that they know personally. That doesn't take a great deal of cash.
So let's say over the next couple of months they complete their buy back at an average price of .85 per share. Let's also say that during that period they are able to make a few G2 sales just by personal contact, they get the European WaterMark patent, and they add some Asian customers to their MPE business. It's not inconceivable that those news items could drive the price to $1.50 or more by the time of the real G2 launch.
If that does happen, would it have been worthwhile for them to have bought those .85 shares? It seems that by committing to this share repurchase they have expressed far more optimism about the future of the company than you appear to have. My guess is they also have far more information about what might happen in the future than you do.
I think destinydough was referring to the fact that you called it a "fisical cliff" rather than a "fiscal cliff".
Got to hand it to you brooklyn13. You are UNIQUE. In all my years in the stock market, this is the first time I have ever heard someone claim that a company has announced a share repurchase in order to HOLD DOWN the price of the shares. That is simply NUTTY.
<Looks like everyone is waiting for Godot....>
Only if Godot announces that he is taking a ClipStream G2 license.
http://www.wikihow.com/Account-for-Share-Buy-Back
The referenced quote is under item #4.
<Can you explain to us how this is a profit to DSNY are you saying that they will sell these shares for more.>
Actually, yes, this can be done as explained in one article about buybacks:
"Often, companies will repurchase their stock if they feel the market has undervalued it. Usually, the firm will later sell the treasury stock back after the stock value increases."
Judging from how DSNY has handled buy backs in the past (cancelling the shares as outstanding) that may not be the case. If they cancel the shares than that is more of a benefit to the shareholders as it reduces the number of shares outstanding thus making each share worth more. It also has the effect of increasing PE which again will be beneficial to shareholders if DSNY becomes profitable. It also can have a positive effect on ROA & ROE.
Probably the best way to judge a companies decision making ability is to review the decisions the executives have previously made in the same area.
This is from the latest annual report:
"During the year ended August 31, 2011, the Company repurchased 1,106,895 shares at an open market, of which it paid $400,779 for 981,965 shares and $50,076 for 124,930 shares. As of August 31, 2011, the 981,965 shares had been cancelled."
So for the 1,106,895 shares that they repurchased, they paid a total of $451,000. At the moment, those same shares are worth over $708,000. That's a 57% increase in value.
I'd say that was a wise decision.
As for how they can pay for this new repurchase plan, I don't see a problem. They have no long term debt. They have sufficient current assets and cash flow and the great majority of expenses pertaining to development of G2 have been paid for. I also seem to remember reading that they have a substantial line of credit from which they have not drawn anything. And finally, if these new repurchased shares perform as well as the last repurchase plan, the profit involved would go a long way to paying for them.
Agree with Vangorilla. Accuracy of analysts estimated price targets is incredibly poor. And that's based upon estimates of larger established companies with more predictable earnings.
With microcap companies they can vary hugely either to the upside or downside so as to make them relatively meaningless.
As Van says, the important thing is that an analyst was even willing to make a stab at a target price for a company like Destiny. That target price does represent a gain of over 50% from todays price so it certainly is a positive. But in the case of this dynamic situation, the target price could as easily be $5 as $1.
Yes, DD, in the long run the Frankfurt thing is pretty meaningless. But in the present, it does have significance because
it might be relevant to the recent dramatic drop in share price. Even if the Germans could continue to trade it on another exchange, the very fact that it was shown as being delisted on the exchange they normally deal with is a negative and could have spurred many to just sell. With a stock as illiquid as DSNY it doesn't take much negativity to cause a drop.
IF this situation with the Frankfurt Exchange is actually the reason for the price drop.
AND IF Destiny's people know this for a fact.
AND IF everything else with G2 & MPE is proceeding as planned.
THEN it is really smart on their part to approve this new buyback to take advantage of what seems to be abnormally low share prices at this point.
Plenty of IF's, but haven't seen any other reason to account for a 40% drop in share price without any hint of bad news.
Maybe you can also get him to correct "here say" to hearsay.
Not the bightest bulb in the box yet someone who thinks he has all the answers.
A wise man once said: "He who thinks he has all the answers hasn't been asked many important questions."
<My thinking was that if I were a director and was buying some shares back, I'd rather pay .65 than .75 and that large bid offers at a lower price might depress share price overall.>
First of all, your assumption that the company would buy back shares only by making low ball offers is probably not something that would be the case. But let's say it is. So right now let's say with the price at .62 and the ask at .63, they put in a bid for 100,000 shares at .59.
Now let's also say that someone is looking to buy shares of DSNY. So they look at the level two quotes and see that nice big bid at .59. Do you think they would be more likely to buy shares at .63 with that bid there or if it was not there. The normal thinking would be that it would be safer to buy at .63 with that big bid putting a floor at .59.
<Commodity prices, I don't think, are relevant to this issue.>
Whether it be commodity prices or stock prices, supply & demand definitely is an important factor in pricing.
<won't that further depress the share price?>
If you really believe that an increase in demand for purchase of 1M shares is something that would cause the shares to be cheaper, you probably shouldn't be investing in the stock market.
If there is a huge increase in demand for oil, does it usually cause the price at the pump to go down????
<What a great way to prop up a falling stock.>
NO, it's a great way to pick up shares they consider to be way too cheap. Knowing what they know, they must believe the shares will eventually be worth far more than they are today.
If you think you got out too soon, just get back in. That's what stock investing is all about. You sell when you think the price isn't going up and you buy when you think it is.
< just trying to see as large a picture as I can. >
Sometimes it's not possible to see the large picture until there actually is one.
Your first message dealt with the honesty/integrity of the CEO. My opinion is that Steve has demonstrated this in spades. Now you are on to something else; the CEO's abilities.
So far all we know is that the CEO in running a very small company has:
1. Achieved company survival in a very difficult economic climate where many have not survived.
2. Created a stable solid recurring revenue stream that has reached profitability.
3. Agressively and successfully protected the companies IP rights.
4. Continued to creatively add to the companies current products & services AND developed what could be game changing new technology.
5. Improved the share price for investors. At least for those who entered when I did at around .42.
Those are reasonably good accomplishments. But organizational and leadership abilities don't really get tested until companies take off. How will Steve perform when Destiny is doing $50M a year in revenue rather than $5M? That's the "big picture" and the question can't be answered until we get there. But beginning with a CEO with integrity and some amount of proven success seems like a good start.
<Any investor who takes what the CEO of a company says at face value deserves what he / she gets.>
There is nothing more important in investing in a company than the integrity of the CEO, the officers & the directors of the organization. On the other hand, many excellent investments can be missed due to being overly skeptical.
Since CEO's are generally not hooked up to lie detectors during Conference Calls, the best way to decide on how much to trust that person is to judge them over time by what they have previously said. I began accumulating DSNY in October 2011. I have followed the progress of the company closely and listened to all the Conference Calls. So far I have been very impressed with the honesty of Steve Vestergaard. If anything, he seems to underhype the companies accomplishments and future potential. I like that low key approach. Others, who are less patient, might rather like more hype and bloviating from the CEO, but in the long run it is generally better for a company to take its time, build on a strong foundation, and not create over expectations.
Of course, with that said, I would love to hear some (honest) really great news ASAP to get this share price moving in the right direction again.
<At .80 the market cap would be double what it was a year ago, not at .60>
The double quote was made by Steve at the conference call the morning of Nov. 30th. DSNY closed on the 29th at .79.
Is that close enough for you?
<Can anyone point out to me any article about Destiny anywhere that's not in a technical publication? Their public relations effort is non-existent, why everyone thinks Steve is such a brilliant CEO is lost on me.>
Your questions about this were answered by Steve in the Conference Call.
"We expect to launch no later than spring of next year. And we expect to have revenue before then, but I’m talking about the official launch.
So we’ve kept a really low profile, and intentionally been below the radar. As we’ve worried about copycats we’ve been worried about getting our patents in place. We haven’t wanted to really show our technology to possible customers until it’s ready. But we’re ready to start attracting now. And once this demo comes out, we’re looking towards after Christmas to start making noise and start making waves. I kind of alluded to that on the last conference call.
So in the last year we have started reaching out to investors. We’ve been trying to build our audience. We joined the premier tier of the OTCQX, the top tier, at the beginning of the fiscal year. I’ve personally started presenting at a number of conferences and to a number of institutions, been doing lots of road shows, we’ve been trying to build the audience. I’ve been talking to a number of analysts, probably most of them are on the line right now. And one independent research report from Clarus Securities is already out. I’m expecting more independent analyst coverage in the coming months.
We’re also interviewing potential PR companies. And we expect to get a lot of press coverage, in both the tech press but also the mainstream press when Clipstream G2 finally launches. We’re looking to tell the world how disruptive our technology is.
But that said, we know at the end of the day our management team is judged by one metric and that’s our market cap. And I know a lot of investors have been really frustrated that our strategy of being under the radar and, you know, not bragging about what we have, possibly has our technology currently under-valued. But I have to remind everybody that the market cap’s about double what it was a year ago. We are listening to investor complaints about awareness, and one of my main goals – or not my main goals, but one of my goals next year is to make sure that Destiny and the Play MPE and Clipstream brands are widely known, and we’re not going to be below the radar anymore. So going into the New Year we’re ready to launch commercially and build exposure."
I am not a tech person, but even I understand that comparing ClipStream G2 to what BrightCove does is an apples to oranges situation.
Glad you are now able to go off and find a better investing vehicle. Good Luck.
My download speed is 31.58 Mbps. YET, when I start one of the videos it does its test and usually comes back with the message: "Connection speed bad". BUT, the videos all play perfectly.
I contacted Destiny regarding G2's ability to play on Internet Explorer browsers. Here's reply:
"The technology requires IE 9 or above as do all the alternatives to Clipstream (HTML 5). The green in this link are the browsers that are supported.
http://caniuse.com/#feat=canvas
About 12% of internet users use IE 8 or below. For those users, we can autodetect and offer them our old Clipstream. We haven't done that in the Showcase. We expect this 12% figured to decline rapidly as Microsoft is going to be aggressively pushing IE 10 as they need their own users to upgrade to HTML 5."