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That's the point I am trying to make A1.
Surprising that Karol did not even mention this aspect as a point of concern, on the call. How can they afford to run such a hand-to-mouth operation.
At anytime, they should at least have enough to sustain operations for a year. The money they have won't even last two months and this was as of end March. Wonder what the situation is today.
Yes drr. That is the way I feel too. This company should have been doing much better on the pps front.
But I guess for the moment let us be happy with the rosy future being painted. Have no choice.
Thanks
Thanks A4
Somehow since last night, I have become very skeptical about finances.
Seem to be the only one around with this negative mind set. The business model looks good to me particularly after the call and this whole thing about revenue from Authentication but the time frames bother me.
When will all this happen. Have waited for 6 long years. Is it going to be another 6 years or less?.
Anyways enough of my crap now.
Why is everyone so quiet about the financials and the impending dilution.
Does this not bother anyone.
Thanks A1
Thanks. But tell me honestly A4- are you not worried by the financials.
One can have a perfectly sound business model ruined by lack of viability due to funds.
Yes A4- you are right.
The real scale is in the authentication business and creating an expanding world of DNA marked items. This is akin to the printers market, where the real money is in the consumables i.e. ink cartridges.
My question to you is from where did you get the figure of $500 per authentication. Is this a declared number by APDN ?
Thanks A4 for posting this.
One of the things which became evident to me on the call today was that the revenue will not come so much from marking but from authentication of DNA marked items.
So the business model lies in creating an expanding world of DNA marked items. Hence as you rightly suggested yesterday the revenue through authentication could be larger as time goes by.
Also interesting is the increase in customer base to 100 by the year end. The renewal fee could be significant.
My concern remains the financials particularly the available cash as of end Mar 2014. I am surprised that no questions pertaining to financials were asked or addressed barring one or two easy ones.
Why don't you post links.
Someone should read the 10K and realistically analyze it for this board. What I see scares the hell out of me.
They seem to have just about $2 million of cash with them. They have to desperately seek additional funding to sustain their operations. To me this seems extremely inefficient. There is no way that the pps will show a positive sign with these kind of figures.
All the rest is pure hype and simply painting a rosy picture. Sorry for being so negative but this is in the best interests of everyone. I will be happy to be proven wrong.
Net loss for the first 6 months is $9 million against a revenue of $1.2 million. Does this make any sense.
Can you imagine the kind of revenue ramp up that we need to become positive. Will these 600-700K revenues per quarter get us anywhere??
I think we are living on dreams out here. How can we possibly sustain such an operation going forward. Will we see endless series of dilutions for funds??
I am bit disillusioned but please correct me if I am wrong.
That sounds very encouraging and possible.
The question is the time frame. It is a given that one day this will be a great stock. The question is when will that day come.
For me, I am getting a little impatient because I was banking on some gains from this stock and it is not as if I have not waited patiently. Waited 6-7 dam years.
More than anything else, I want to see the positive vibes that we have on this board, reflect in the pps of this stock. I would not have been complaining if the pps was above 30 cents right now and increasing. That's not the case.
Either way thanks for your positive thoughts and sorry for being a pain if I am.
Somehow A4, while I would like to believe that all is well, the market response is not encouraging and all this seems like us trying to console ourselves.
While I agree with your interpretation of the deferred revenues, I would have preferred that revenues for the quarter accounted on the books, should have been more than a million.
The revenue ramp up is not as exciting. The comparison to the last year period looks good but if you look at the increase over the previous quarter, the increase is pathetic. How and when will we exceed expenses at this rate. Also if you notice, the revenue from the DLA for the 6 month period is just $390K. After all the hype over the DLA mandate and the recent PRs, does this not look a meager amount.
I was expecting the Supina and Brinks and Dawson deals to add a substantial amount but that does not seem to be the case. My concern is that our revenue generated per contract is not very high. If that is the case, we should be signing 100s of contracts to see a significant revenue increase.
I hope I am proved wrong but the results have disappointed me.
A4- I think what we need to know here is the quantum of expense related to the warrants. I remember that the last time around this was a high figure.
Hence if the pps goes up, the warrants related expense goes up substantially and the revenues do not ramp up at the same pace. I am posting an extract of the last report by Karol Gray in which she mentions about this aspect.
Our net loss for the quarter ended December 31, 2013 was $6.3 million in comparison to the $8.7 million reported for last year’s first quarter, a 28% reduction. It is important to note that approximately $2.6 million of this loss compares to $6.3 million from the prior year is considered to be “non –cash” accounting entries related to the
value of certain warrants and has no impact on our liquidity.
Due to certain provisions in the warrant agreements issued related to our past financings, we are required to adjust the value of the warrants to reflect the current market value. The $2.6 million reported in the consolidated statement of operations represents the change in market value during first quarter in fiscal year 2014. The statement of operations will continue to be impacted by the fluctuation in the fair market value of our warrants until they are fully exercised.
Pass that message on to the Dr on tomorrow's call. He will dish out another monologue on how the future looks great.
GD450- I wonder whether the lower pps helps the management to show an artificially better performance on net loss. I remember the Dr having said that a higher pps leads to higher warrants related cost and hence the lower pps suits the management. This way they keep getting their stock options and money through dilution and yet show the net loss to be lower, thereby managing to hide the inefficiency in their operations.
High expenses has been a problem with APDN. Revenues are not ramping up exponentially to justify the higher expenses.
A1,
If the first 6 months generated only $390K from the DLA isn't that a small amount after all the hype that surrounds the DLA mandate.
Don't get it.
A4,
I am not impressed at all. I agree with Gd450s assessment that net loss is lower only because of the lower warrants related costs.
Expenses for the period have in fact gone up by almost 45%. Revenues of $600+ are pathetic and I would note like to include the deferred revenues to make it look good. Projected revenues are about a million plus but that is nothing great.
Disappointing to say the least. The pps is going nowhere for another quarter or more.
Dam!!!. I am done with this shit. Just feeling hopeless now.
I don't expect this to go up at all.
Yes A1. A big positive no doubt but where is the volume then. Why are we not seeing a lot of buying??
We should have crossed a million by now. If this kind of news is not able to attract people, what will??
I hope not Yip.
That's what is always a concern. Getting a spate of PRs talking about the future only to cover up some bad present results.
Will the shorters and MMs let this one rise?
Frustrating to see the drop this morning instead of the pps simply taking off.
A4
You made a good point about news not being reported on the IHub page for APDN. Someone needs to correct that.
Regarding the news this morning, I do believe that is great news. I can however understand Pasta's reaction as news alone has been unable to get the pps moving. Unfortunately this stock seems to have lost some of its visibility.
It has always been a "future is bright" kind of situation. I do hope the CC and the results change that perspective.
Hi Mike
Your posts are always welcome. I don't understand how to explain my state of mind.
On one hand I believe in this technology and the potential that it has. I do believe this is a winner though the time frame has been frustrating. Like you, I have also put in a lot of money into this and I cannot afford for this to fail. Have waited patiently for about 6 years now.
After the mandate, I had at least expected it to keep its upward trend. Never expected it to get back to 10 cents. I would have been happy if it had hovered in the 30 cent range.
Anyways, I guess investing in penny stocks is not as simple.
Good luck and enjoy your Sunday morning.
Thanks JLH2
Whatever way we look at this, I am not so upbeat about next week.
The pps run up so far has not been great. We should have at least been in the mid or higher teens by now.
We have hardly seen any high volume days.
No signs to suggest that revenues are going to be great. In fact if we ignore the deferred revenues the rest of it is a big question mark. Just no clue how much they will make from DLA, Supina, Dawson, Brinks, Home Protection in UK and Stockholm, Cash-in-transit in EU, etc..
Expenses have never come down. They always have a reason for the increase. If nothing else they will come up with some Crede warrants related costs.
No MDA announcement and no mandate expansion as yet.
I am not sure what else is the Dr going to announce on the call on Tue.
Yes. Consumer products is where the volume is. Pharma will be a great segment to crack.
Thanks JLH2
This clarifies a lot. I was never clear about this aspect. Seems ok to me.
Let's hope revenues for the last quarter are impressive.
Sad that it closed below yesterday's close.
Not impressed by this volume. Now we are at the mercy of the monotonous monologue on the conference call. Hope he has something good to share this time.
I guess this is a better way of opening the door for APDN. Instead of mandating APDN, it is better to ask for a fail proof plan.
APDN already has one and it is approved. Others will have to pass the stages of first coming up with a plan and then proving that it is 100% perfect. Till someone comes up with such a plan, APDN has the road clear.
This will also look like fair play and not monopolizing of APDN technology.
My concern is that we might be selling cheap. Only our partners seem to benefit.
Somehow the revenue should be linked to the number of items or components or parts that are marked and not to the number of unique DNA marks that we create.
It's an uphill task to ramp up number of customers but it is easier to grow revenue per customer. Wonder how APDN does it.
Forget BLDP,
Everyone seems to have abandoned this board too. Hardly any posts.
Yeah. Look at the measly volume.
Yes Mike,
A pretty boring day. We have had almost 5 decent PRs this month. Yet struggling to break through 14 cents.
Another 270,000 there again at 13.50. If the volume picks up we should be able to break 13.70/14 by EOD
Almost 400000 on the Ask at 13.50. Tough to break that.
Hope we cross 14 today. That will be a good way to brace for Monday evening.
This pertains to the Polyolefins deal that they announced. Looks like a very secretive deal.
Must be something important and big. Maybe as Vans posted, linked to Pharma in a way.
The Dr may announce something during the CC.
What concerns me is that if all these PRs cannot get us going, we have only a day to go and then comes Monday.
God forbid, if the results are not exciting then we might continue to languish in this range or even drop back. Something is not right.
Normally we should have been nearing the high teens on the current spate of PRs. Hardly any volume. By now we should have seen a couple of 4-5 million volume days.
Hope next week springs a surprise for us.
I am amazed that we still do not have sufficient buying interest.
For this to go up significantly, we need the 5-10 million volume days.
175K sitting on the Ask between 13.70 and 13.75.
Looks like we might end the day with 13.70. Tough breaking through 14.