Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Agreed. But we need to avoid a GIGANTIC land mine today in the after hours. If we clear today, I think our chances improve. Even a delay is going to be encouraging.
As we all know, Friday after hours is bad news time. Any press release by ARNA after hours today will be perceived as a negative. If you don't hear anything today, I'd be real careful with that shorting the hell out of it deal. You don't need approval for it to be perceived as "good news". I believe a CRL is baked in the cake. Now it's just a matter of how they word it and how long it will take to fix it. Let the games begin.
I remember reading the abstract you posted and noting the share price. That was when we were in the midst of the great wall of 3.50. From the point of that post, the stock has seemingly risen .35 as we speak (made it all the way up to 4.05). I don't believe it is coincidental. What do you think?
How much better could MRK have expected than that?
A few weeks ago you were jumping for joy after seeing the abstracts. Why would Mrk say that it didn't meet there criteria on such strong data?
Start your reading by looking up the story of the 4 members of the board that resigned in protest.
Dew
What do you think the chances are of a positively perceived CRL as opposed to a slam dunk against ARNA?
Thanks good luck to you as well. I'm interested to see how this one plays out. First chance I get I am going to have to dump some because we are too close to PDUFA. The rest I might just hold depending on the the language of the CRL.
Maybe I should send you my username and password? Unfortunately these conversations almost always turn into personal attacks. You have been the lead ARNA basher on IHUB, so I wouldn't exactly call you an objective poster. The 2 poster children for BIO superstars were once considered dead and buried by almost everyone. Look where they are now. I bought HGSI @ 3.40 when everyone thought Benlysta had no shot. Let's see what happens. I don't think they are done.
You have been pretty consistent on your thoughts on Succeed. Any thoughts on ARNA? Post them on the ARNA board if you have a minute. I always like the contrarian opinion.
I bought a ton @ 1.86. At this price, a CRL is basically baked in the cake. I think a CRL could prove to be a positive in that it might give some guidance on how to proceed forward. At this point with the short interest being as high as it is, anything that is a perceived positive will have to move this stock price. Obviously a risky bet, but those are the biggest paydays (and biggest losers). Remember, all of us who invest in biotech are gamblers. We are all looking to be that guy (or girl) who bought the next DNDN or HGSI at the bargain basement price. Intelligent responses are always welcomed.
The great wall of 3.97 resembles the former great wall of 3.50. Will not be around for much longer imo.
Perhaps, but I don't think so. We will soon find out
So far today every time it gets run down to 1.76, a massive buy order comes in. I think it is being manipulated down so someone can buy cheaper. That's my arrogant twit opinion.
Excuse me but if you "don't know how things work in the market much", how do you know what a weak bounce looks like? Or a strong one for that matter?
Thats what everyone believed would happen if we lost the Lilly lawsuit as well. But the stock went up. I'm not saying we would go up if SUCCEED failed, but it may not be as bad as you might think. Imo, $3.85 is cheap just on the value 534 and 113 alone. Rida really is Merck's baby now. I guess we shall soon see.
And why exactly are they doing that?
Endo abstract should help that scenario
Aria is 70% of my portfolio (obviously way too much). It is my swing for the fences. I am hoping to sell 50% @ $10 within 6 months and let the rest ride (cost basis = $2.35). After seeing the Endo abstract, I feel a little more confident about the Rida results. Sound reasonable to the regulars here?
I am having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that something so significant to this company is out there and the stock hasn't budged. Any reasonable responses?
Does this mean you are finally feeling comfortable about Rida's chances?
ARNA had to be one of the worst short attacks I've seen in a while. Once the Rat data became public, it has been relentless. Biotech is definitely not for the weak at heart.
I can't remember the last time a company pre-announced a conference for bad news. That would be suicide. The only question remaining is how good is the news going to be. Let's hope it's the SPA.
Others have speculated it could be related to a "SPA". What kind of impact would a SPA announcement have on the share price?
You are a real sunny day at the beach aren't you? If the news was bad, I think we would have gotten it yesterday.
I not familiar with what the INCY drug's potential is and what stage it was at when they signed the deal. Is it comparative to 534? I don't see Aria partnering 534 until it is a little further along. Perhaps 1H 2011. If all goes well, I could see those kind of numbers for 534.
I don't recall. How much upfront did they get for 573? What would make you happy for 534?
I can't believe that after all of this time, Harvey and the boys would pre-announce on a Friday after-market without having something substantial too say. They know by now how the market punishes ho-hum news. If they come out on Monday with something relatively insignificant, then perhaps I need to re-think my "all-in" position slightly. Thoughts?
So there were 10 mil shares outstanding back then?
It's def not bad news or we would have gotten it tonight. It's just a question of how good and how it is going to be perceived by the traders.
From the wording of the press release it sounds that way (either that or more data)
What's the verdict? The trial initiation or a partner? Is there some other possibility that I am missing?
It's only a matter of time before things start rocking around here. My hope is that the timing is such that we get a few (3 or 4) significant positive announcements in succession. That should catapult the share price substantially. Should be an interesting 4th quarter.
I thought it traded a little weak today. Considering the "irrational exuberance" of the day, I would have expected a little more pop. Obviously longs should take a .5 up day and be very happy.
So where we going next? Back to $3 w/o any sign pos news on Rida or 534 partner?
Wouldn't that be a collusion of sorts?
1.3 mil shares in that short of time should drive the price up significantly. It barely blinked. Options, pending news, someone taking a big position I don't care. That should have moved. It did not blink! No after market movement either. I said last week that nothing surprises me anymore, but that one baffled me.
regardless I would expect a buy of that size to create a temp shortage thus driving the stock price up atleast 10 cents, no?
Care to elaborate on your thesis?
How could a 1.3 mil block go through in the final minutes without a big jump in share price? Can someone please explain that to me?