I am updating my staus.
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I agree it's the housing bubble that has people worried. CCLTF only need what China needs which is more houses; ideally with tasteful ceramics.
If there is a property crash will the builders lose out and go bust? That's the crux - if they pass on the properties on completetion and don't hold a large inventory and don't overpay for land then they should be shielded from the worst of a price downturn. As long as they keep building were in the money.
Management need to map out a worst case scenario using contracts / retail sales or whatever. Certainly in China the property companies have lagged the rest of the market this year.
rich
It's had a great run ... and when things turn the stocks with the great runs get hit the hardest. Is this the end for LLEN? No. It's growing at a great rate and the plan is to keep aquiring mines. Coal is at all time high - it's going to to 1.10 at least - and we increased eps by ? 100% and a recent talk ( a few days ago) they were confident they would keep growing (think revenue) at 78% ish..
rich
Coal Prices - LLEN & SGZH - playing around with bloomberg report [1]
Year Avg 400 yuan to 500 yuan Which is $58 - $73
Thermal 4Q 700 yuan to 800 yuan which is $102 to $117
Looking at LLEN's their quarter that ended January, not exactly right time frame, had an average of $111 so seems representative of the report.
With SGZH which I'm still looking at. The quarters average prices were $56.14, $49.59 & $44.17. They seem to lag the price of coal increase and would seem to be on the lower end. However, assuming that they get the coal out, given the last quarter that remains a query, the macro situation is favourable. My intial feeling is that this year could be very good indeed.
This is work in progress but anyone have input? Should I be working with $80 a tonne, or higher, for Q4 09 / 2010 for SGZH? He he?
rich
[1] http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48898941
All computes... forward! eom
rich
Never a bad idea...
It's here....
http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/9/112109.html
rich
CHTL - hmmm... well it's going to take more than 30 Million to 4G network's cities. I'm guessing there is more loans or more dilution before the story is straight. Still, can't argue, it's good news.
rich
Think from the Conference call you should still be able to listen- I made a note in my spreadsheet.
rich
Yuan senstivity - I'd be interested how this works.
CELM - well putting things into context for 2010 aim is 55% domestic / 45% export. Most of that to Korea. Only 5% to US, say. I think Korea is running a weak Wong (Anyone agree)?
In the end what happens - it will buy metal cheaper and sell it on cheaper. Their net margins are I guess you would have to track the Yunnan / Wong to get the best idea of stresses on purchases.
rich
New capacity is 24 Million... it's a double.
rich
Late Filing: I've assumed it's a pecking order thing. Accounts firms get their important accounts done first and then do the small ones last?
rich
Hmm... well from the 10-K there were an aggregate of 20,744,743 shares outstanding of registrant’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, as of March 29, 2010 [1].
So, I would expect the weighted average to trend up - not sure if it's 20M from Q2 onwards?
That said they have steller finacial numbers - Rev $22M for quarter and Receivables of $8.5M! Wow, I thought I was dreaming. They have 10 million in the bank and cash flow positive from operations to the sum of 9M for the year.
I'm not sure how capital intensive they are but *IF* they don't need to dilute then this is cheap as chips at this level, still.
It's not complete plain sailing - price ramps in iron ore can have temporary affects on margins. Half of the products are exported (mainly to Korea think they are expecting to reduce this to 45%) - so we're reliant on world holding together and any changes in exchange rates not impacting margins too much (only 5% trade to US so they don't matter).
rich
[1] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1421526/000114420410016950/v179203_10k.htm
CCLTF, Hello all, I think it's seen as a proxy to the housing market.
If CCLTF isn't a proxy to house market (I seem to remember CCLTF presentation with lots of new properties in it - not a good idea) then it should explain what's retail sales refurbishing their houses and what's sold to construction.
I have a small position because I think housing will have a soft landing and recover and, obviously, this stock is extremely cheap , I mean, as long as they survive there is deep value here.
rich
6 Chinese Stocks to Consider at This Point
http://seekingalpha.com/article/198402-6-chinese-stocks-to-consider-at-this-point?source=yahoo
rich
Wishing you bought more is definetly the preferred feeling to it's converse
A bit of momentum + There was a conference over the w/e in Bejing and a few more punters heard about this cheap stock, that's my guess anyways.
rich
3yrs in a row! Were backing professional slackers It's a good story and sucess looks like the most likely outcome. I like the odds.
rich
CELM - did a presentation over the w/e might be a few more buyers for the stock. I have no idea what it's worth. Providing they don't need an immediate capital injection they will do fine.
NAS stock with P/E less than 10 with growing reveneus and income but flatish EPS this year. They are managing their receivables (shock and awe!) and have doubled their capacity. It's an interesting one and I wasn't expecting it to rear up so quickly.
rihc
CPQQ, crazy Yes, at full production and possible future expansion it looks cheap. I like it but would have liked something more cast iron in the PR about orders a moderate growth in orders would leave it looking less attractive.
I'm thoughtfull on it but not yet bought it.
rich
CPQQ - worryingly these things are making more sense
I have the Series A preferred converted
I have the Series B preferred which can convert to give 4M ish shares.
I have the warrants that total 5.5M.
To get the FD I added them to the current O/S of around 15M to get my FD.
rich
CPQQ - yes I agree about 2009 - I was thinking about how they look in 2010.
rich
CPQQ, through gritted teeth , yes this is excellent news.
The final nail will be strong orders - they hint at it here:
"Assuming we win the new orders that we believe can be achieved, we could start delivering amorphous alloy cores for some of those new orders from the new plant as early as May 2010. Until then, we will shake down the production line by running pre-production volumes to qualify the line. Once qualified, we will begin producing amorphous alloy cores in this new second plant for our current customers in partnership with our first core plant."
I calculated: They had 24.5 Million fully dilluted with warrants chucked in. Net income of 4.2 Million. Which gives earnings of 17 cents for 09. So, this OB at 17 times earnings at $3 needs to show good growth again.
The only wrinkle I can see is it relies on subsidies from the government - to choose amorphous alloy over sillicon - why they need this given it's cheaper to run who knows?
My bet would be for a bright future making lots more transformers.
rich
(position: sold out but scratching chin over news and deciding if to get back in)
China bank lending down 43 percent in Q1
Good, if they hold things together, I guess.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-bank-lending-down-43-apf-1313885750.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
rich
Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces have been affected by the drought. Guangdong Province which SIAF seems to be based [1] is next to Guangxi. I have googled Guangdong and drought but you don't get any interesting stories [2] the only reference to Guangdog is that people worry it might spread there.
Guangdong is on the coast and is likely to have different weather systems than inland. In Guangdong there have been freak blizzards and typhoons already this year - unfortunate for those involved but they will bring water.
If you google Guangdong and weather there is signficant chance for rain over the next week but once again no one is making a big deal out of it (a good thing) [3] and this one shows next 10 days and they all have chances of rain [4].
It would be good to get an offical answer from the company but my bet is that they are doing just fine for rain.
rich
[1] http://www.sinoagrofood.com/?q=content/heng-sing-tai-agriculture-development-co-ltd
[2] http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Guangdong+drought&hl=en&client=firefox-a&tbo=p&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&tbs=tl:1,tl_num:50,tll:2010,tlh:2014&ei=HPTCS_bDO8ri-QaR-oXaCA&sa=X&oi=timeline_histogram_main&ct=timeline-histogram&cd=7&ved=0CIYCEMkBKAc
[3] http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Guangzhou+weather&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a
[4] http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/CHXX0037
LLEN / Coal & Hydro shortfall- also worth noting that the drought means that the hydro electric power has been shut off so that's 30% reduction of power [1] in Yunnan which probably will be made up with coal. In Hubei province, say, the 30% hydro shorfall will come from coal [2]. There might be other provinces also affected.
Specifically, LLEN has a wholesale business in Yunnan provicne which is basically them stockpiling up coal ready for a demand (until LLEN did this everythig was mine to coal station leaving problems if their was a shortfall of coal.
Awful tragedy but LLEN looks like it's in the front seat to keep the province going with hydro electricity shortfall. However, throughout SW of China there will be additonal demand for coal.
rich
[1] http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2010/03/28/Hydro-power_out_in_Chinas_dams_445294.html
[2] http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-04/08/content_9702174.htm
Hey, everyone has one those moments Your up and running now. I suspect saying something intelligent to him is more difficult than finding the email.
rich
michael@pettis.com http://mpettis.com/about/
Looks like him...
rich
RINO Well, I was worried that China could bluff there way out of not doing enough pollution control but having just read Justin's excellent report I'm fairly convinved that there's plenty of work to do and that, importantly, the Chinese people can see when there's been an improvement.
The leaders can BS as much as they want but until it's done properly the air is going to be misty and the water yellowey. I'm going to guess that the PRC leaders will see this as a Chinese stabiliy issue and of the highest priority?
rich
The low lodging-houses are pretty numerous (somewhat exceeding 400), chiefly in courts near the centre of the town; they are almost always loathsomely filthy and close, the resorts of beggars, trampers, thieves and prostitutes, who here, regardless alike of decency or comfort, eat, drink, smoke and sleep in an atmosphere unendurable by all except the degraded, besotted inmates.
Pollution would seem a fact of Chinese's current life. However, it's for China, and especially the growing middle classes, to push for environmental reform. The above paragraph was written by Engels about Birmingham in 1845 - Birmingham was the epicenter of the Idustrial revolution and that pollution would have been happening for at least 50 years before Engles documented it.
Birmingham was still having fogs in 1960s and people who lived through them have a reduced life expetency as well as incresed prevelence of breathing illnesses. So, that's 200 years of shortened lives.
I have to report, living in the East of Birmingham, I have never seen a smog in my life. I am an optomist in most things and I also believe China can sort this mess out faster than we did in the West. You can judge them, understandably , but we should also acknowledge that the west have been through this way already.
We're investing in China because of where the country is going and not where it's at now.
rich
http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1845/condition-working-class/index.htm
RINO - there new plant isn't open until September 2010 so you wont see any increased in earnings until March 2011. I'm just wondering if the shorts think they have immputity to short until, say, late 2010. I mean, there's a lot of them betting that way!
There is also a lot of confusion about BOT - I wonder if this worry is going to be expolitied?
Here's the transcript - interesting thing is they cut it short on the Q/A - I think they should have let it go until everyone ran out of questions.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/196771-rino-international-corporation-q4-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo&page=1
rich
BURPs the expert - if your lucky he'll give you some advice. If you want to hedge your bets you can put a GTC for half your holding at a price that you like - there's probably going to be some wild fluctuations coming into earnings / expiration and you could lock some profits in.
And yes... Squeaky bum time is the tense, final stages of a competition.
rich
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/squeaky-bum-time.html
CNAM - it's fun isn't it? Everyone bought it for the trash compacter but the other business is showing a bit of life as well. I'm patient on this one. With interest in the ramp up.
rich
Bottom Sectors, Rames cheers very interesting eom
rich
Surely, other comapanies will be able to buy metals cheaper as well? So, the advanatage is nulled as everyone has to reduce prices. A bit of deflation in China is a good thing!
Yuan to dollar is a booster to profits, sure.
There is an indirect beneifit that domestic spenders will have more money and it would seem are happy to buy more goods. So more metal is going to be used.
rich
Not impossible that they need more time than April 15th - that will be interesting
rich
China sees explosive sales growth of appliance in rural areas
The subsidized appliance in the program included refrigerators, TV sets, mobile phones, washing machines, computers, air conditioners, water heaters, micro-wave ovens and electromagnetic ovens.
In March this year, the government added six kinds of appliances in the program including electric bike, smoke exhaust ventilator, gas stove, pressure cooker, electric cooker and DVD player.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-04/09/content_9704898.htm
No wonder CELM are confident about hitting targets. Bike manufactures get a booster as well for the first year - I asume that means our favouirte battery makers will benefit.
rich
BSPM Pearson to become investing GOD if he finally keep the *$@d thing over $4. He will have achieved what common sense couldn't
rich
Thanks for posting that... I must admit I thought it was a month but what do I know...
rich
LLEN - if close above $15 rumour is that they will go into IBD for first time, at gulp, #1. Is this sounding pumpy?
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?m=tm&bn=106842&tid=891&mid=891&tof=5&frt=2
rich
BSPM - his projeced EPS was calculated using a howitzer. $8 is possible if they uplist this year. Anything more would require the company to shine or to up guidance on 2010/2011.
rich
BSPM: Biostar: Best Small-Cap Pharma Stock
By Rick Pearson 04/09/10 - 10:10 AM EDT
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10722093/3/biostar-best-small-cap-pharma-stock.html
rich
(link from BSPM board)