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HENRIK has done at least three articles about Fuel Cell Energy going bankrupt. I think it might actually be 4. And when Fuel Cell Energy came out with the last
10Q, I messaged he is going to come out with an article anytime now and sure enough a day later he did. He is a self-professed day-trader and short seller. he claims to have no position and not planning on taking one in fuel cell energy. However I can guarantee he knows people that are shorting or day trading the stock. And in my personal opinion he is receiving compensation for his articles. But that's just my opinion. Google him and look at his bio then look at his articles about FuelCell energy and compare them to positive news that came out. I guarantee you three of his negative articles came out within a couple of days of positive news from the company. It's a given. They have some merit. But only the merit that the company agrees with. Did if there's no change they have serious doubt about their ability to continue as a going concern. But again in my opinion that is a formality. They have to make that statement to protect themselves. In my opinion also they have never really feared the fact that they were going bankrupt. They knew what they needed to do how to do it and whether or not they could do it they just needed a leader to get it done and now they have one.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/30/1812696/0/en/FuelCell-Energy-Announces-New-1-4-Megawatt-Project-With-The-City-of-San-Bernardino-Municipal-Water-Department.html&ved=2ahUKEwi50sPFo93kAhUhmVwKHXwUD-QQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2EUIuoW8OfimtJJ8f8dWqt&cshid=1568909598465
Remember this project from April 30th. Some could say came from out of nowhere but it didn't. They gave an update on California approving he's kind of project shortly before that. Two good points regarding this. 1 is do you think this is the only project we will get from California (NOT)? 2, why would San Bernardino or anyone for that matter been doing a new contract with a company that was going bankrupt? Anybody have a good answer?
Let's stick with the horse racing analogy. anyone who follows horse racing knows the trainer and the jockey are a large part of the equation. We have a very successful combination of trainer and jockey right now. On a horse that obviously had a load of potential with a bunch of good workouts. A couple of wins with a bunch of races where they had excuses like being pulled back out of the gate for boxed in around the turn, stumbled at the start, and of course having a very inexperienced jockey on board the whole time. Now that we have a top-quality trainer with a very experienced jockey it's going to get nothing but better from here and I expect a lot of big victories. but the first victory is the only one you're going to get The Longshot on.
Then go! Good luck
Anyone ever watch horse racing. You ever have a Longshot you knew had a great chance to win. I wheel them in the exacta hoping another Longshot comes in with them. Don't need another Longshot her. Just put your money on the nose to win. Race date to be announced soon. It's a long race but she'll come out the gate fast and finish just as strong. Odds are going down until race time though. I'd get your bets in now at 99/1. Of course that's not the real odds, the numbers only go that high. Real odds should be even $ but investors and BS PR have the odds possible for 10,000/1. I'm all in. If under $1 or still 1,000/1 beginning of October, I'm throwing a couple more bucks at it.
NYISO Queue, scroll down to 649 and 650, both other LIPA fuel cells still in Queue with FES (readability study done). It's a lengthy process but almost at PPA.
https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/1407078/NYISO-Interconnection-Queue.xlsx/c0fe9a9b-7011-ab05-0f51-fd4ad0ef33f0?t=1559749113351
You hit most of it. Let's get Tulare done and Hercules and NRG paid. SP goes over $1 and if they need $ can sell 8 million shares over $1. Then ATM gone too. Q4 results will parallel Q3 as far as good, but revenue will be lower due to $10 million from Exxonmobil, unless they pick up a similar amount or more from a sale of something before 10/31 (which they very well could)
You and I have both waited a long time. The difference is I have pumped a lot of money in here recently as well as before. Of course I am down substantially just as you. But I do believe in the technology and the company and the need. I believe we finally have the right people in the right places to get the deal done. And we have action-based incentives instead of just giving people bonuses. Deadlines have been pushed back several times which means they are making progress. I believe some of the most recent deadlines will be the last. And I believe there is not only a need but a substantial push to get the stuff that needs to be done completed before the end of Q4 (10-31-19). That's why I have repeatedly said things are going to change between 1 and 7 weeks. Actually obviously I haven't been saying one in 7 weeks for a while but right now it's actually down to one and 6 weeks. So I have either been on a 15-year path of denial or we are going to start reaping rewards in less than 6 weeks. Keep the faith everything is pointing towards success over the past few months.
Let me clarify for those playing the home game. This is all just my opinion. When I say very quickly I mean in the next 1 to 7 weeks.
Fuel cell energy has a much more diverse portfolio in the more efficient product. they just did not have the political backing or financial backing that bloom did. Bloom would not have survived this long if they did not have the political and financial backing they have. Fuel-cell had no financial backing and minimal political support. as I have been saying for years Fuel Cell Energy will rise to the cream of the crop. Chip had a vision and although that vision was very optimistic it was faulty. He definitely lacked the insight experience and knowledge necessary for a company like this to be successful. We now have a true leader at the helm that will make this happen and very quickly.
Bloom Energy! I've been saying all along Bloom is going to be bad for the fuel cell industry. But they are still the 280 million dollar market cap which fuel cell will surpass no problem very very soon.
Of course my short-term and my long-term seem to be very different from many people on these message boards. To me a year is not very long although I must say I am getting older watching this stock.
There could end up being a long-term downside to that if the joint venture required future work with each other. But in the short-term I see no Con's at all. It would get the projects done bring in a lot of positive publicity and bring in Revenue. Albeit in the big picture a little bit less overall Revenue but at least it would get done. there could be a realistic possibility of that already in play.
They don't even need to talk about a reverse split until 5 months after the deficiency. I'm sure they're planning on getting it over a dollar before it hits 6 months. They may have hoped the earnings report was going to do that but unfortunately with the statement still out there did they have substantial doubt about their ability to continue as a going concern, people will continue to play the stock and beat it down. they may not need to remove that statement officially if they have a big enough event. Like another licensing agreement or a substantial cash infusion or a straight up cash sale. Just paying off NRG and Hercules will not be sufficient although that should clarify there's no bankruptcy in their foreseeable future.
Please don't try to create distractions or invalidate my post you have to come up with comps from somewhere. There are no comps FuelCell energy has a unique business but when trying to figure out a valuation that is the best method. After all they do have the biggest backlog of any one of those companies. And I'm not certain about existing inventories but I'm guessing they have more of that also. Feel free to let me know if somebody did the research I just happened to think about this post for a little reality check
BLDP 232.6 million shares $1.3 billion Market Cap $5.73 a share on 9/16/19
PLUG 252 million shares
$695.4 million market cap
$2.83 a share on 9/16/19
FCEL 161 million round up
$65.2 million market Cap
$.405 a share on 9/16/19
FCEL @ $695.4 million market cap = $4.32
FCEL @ $1.3 billion market cap = $8.07 a share
November valuations based on 9/16/19 Comps.
Note Q4 2019 Exelon.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/bwbkkN1Gx9K314h16
I fully concur on all of that. I believe the total for NRG and Hercules is down to seven million now, which they currently have no problem if they wanted to pay it. But I believe they are waiting because they expect to complete the Tulare project and go c o d. I also believe something is going on with triangle Street as far as getting a power purchase agreement or selling it but I'm not certain. I believe they want as much cash on hand at the end of Q4 as possible. I think it may have been somebody else but it could have been you the mentioned their hypothesis about generate. I know Generate Capital wanted the exclusive ability to finance everything for them. They may be willing to do that up to the 300 million once an RG and Hercules are completely satisfied. they likely want to have as much cash on hand right now to make sure they can finish all of the projects in queue, primarily Tulare, Campbell's (Bolthouse) and Groton. Seems to me as though those projects may all be completed by the end of October. I feel pretty confident we will get an update by the end of September. A couple of obvious changes are setting short-term goals and getting things accomplished on time, and updating the public in a more timely fashion.
Okay, well sucks that the avg price was $.42 but still only 160 million shares. I agree with somebody else about them waiting til mid October for next ATM over $1.
Not sure, but I was told they had inventory sitting in CT not being installed when Chip was still there. I believe the $10 million from XOM (-the cash to Hercules, I think $6 million) may have kick started finishing the inventory that was not 100% finished due to cash issues. I think they started using ATM wisely when the stock spiked before. Now they are able to execute installation of the past due projects (Tulare and BHF) and get back to the earlier completion date of Groton. Yaphank was not due till 2020 and CR is after Yaphank. First things first. Get Tulare done and BHF and we should be off to the races.
Very good points. So that said, my opinion would be inaccurate. I don't think they are going to use ATM for NRG. I believe they can satisfy NRG with commissioning of Tulare. They may have used it to satisfy 5th 3rd and put the 30% to Hercules. Then, as long as the required progress on Tulare and Groton are met, all deadlines will be good to 10/22. Tulare and TS should be COD by then.
Okay this is purely speculation what makes perfect sense. First, the number one issue for fuel cell energy is to stabilize the company financially. One way they can ensure they do that is by raising enough money through ATM. They had $23.3 million available. 60 cents is not ideal, however it was a much better opportunity then they have had for some time to raise cash and not dilute stock that much. Knowing that the earnings report would only do just so much, they could have taken the opportunity when the stock price was between 60 and 66 cents sell some shares. To make the numbers easy let's say they sold $6 million worth of stock at $0.60. that's very plausible and would only need 10 million shares added. That gives them enough money to pay off Hercules and they would go from approximately 125.9 million to 135.9 million shares and still have $17.3 million ATM shares to sell at a much higher price if needed after they announce Hercules is paid off. So my guess is they knew the earnings report was going to give them an opportunity the cash in ATM and why not at double the price it was at 3 business days before they released earnings.
That means seasoned investors are banking on the stock going over $1. Historically they were buying options banking on it going down. So, yes, it's good for investors.
Investors in FuelCell Energy, Inc. FCEL need to pay close attention to the stock based on moves in the options market lately. That is because the Sep 20, 2019 $1.00 Call had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today.
A big carbon capture project would certainly be a big driver but I don't believe we will get anything like that until after the company has stabilized financially. That market cap I'm implying is very realistic once they no longer have a substantial doubt about their ability to continue as a going concern. The carbon capture is more of the one to two billion dollar market cap range. They will not have 200 million shares. in order for that to happen they would have to sell ATM of $0.30 or less. if they did not sell in the 50 to $0.60 range recently then I'm guessing they are confident they will be able to sell at a higher price.
Good I knew somebody mentioned earlier today or yesterday and lived in Long Island. Can you gain access to the Yaphank landfill. That project was in the planning stage in April. Interested to see if they started any construction at all like prepping site!
I have spoke with other people also, ie, reporter and someone at a project
No, I agree. I've believed what the company said. Hoping new Management is more careful with what they say and more accurate
There's not one monumental events happening at any specific time. I would say the next predictable event that could be like that would be the annual report which is given in January. I would also venture a guess we will have our first conference call with our new CEO at that point. bought between now and the end of October there are several events that are supposed to happen. There are some deadlines for some financial issues and completions or progress goals on projects. September 28th and September 30th are specific deadlines as is October 22nd. There are two projects that are supposed to be completed by sometime in October. Those projects are long-awaited and have significant relevance to the company's financial standing. We should also have a couple of updates I'm the 7.4 megawatt project for the Navy by the end of October. What update should come within the next week from the newspaper that wrote an article about it when there was a delay due to blasting necessary for the foundation of the fuel cell project. The second update is one that's required by the bank in order to continue with the financing for that project. There are updates required for Generate capital NRG Hercules and fifth Third Bank. The quote in the 10-q about having substantial doubt is the primary reason the stock is where it's at right now in the 30 to $0.50 range. Once that substantial doubt no longer exist we are looking at a market cap of over $500 million. I would say probably actually between 600 million and 1 billion based on plug and Ballard's valuation. in order to figure out what the share price should or will be in regard to that we need to know how many outstanding shares there are going to be at the time. That will fall somewhere between 126 million and 198 million. Again something we should know by the end of October.
No I didn't say anything I posted it so people were aware of it and they obviously are a significant part of the H2 project with the primary sponsor Toyota. that event itself may bring attention to fuel-cell but will probably not affect the share price. what type of people that are going to that and making any investments are people that are going to do their diligence before they make an investment so they could put some money in it at some point after the seminar / exposition. Just another bit of good news for the long-term investors like myself.
No problem. I have a couple more updates coming in the near future. Ie: should be getting an updated article I'm Julia Bergman regarding the Navy project this week.
Update on this article coming soon according to Julia!
https://www.theday.com/military-news/20190430/construction-of-fuel-cell-park-at-sub-base-delayed
Don't forget $0.57 was the high yesterday out the gate and it was $0.64 at the close. But after hitting $0.57 it pulled back substantially. Let's see where it is at 10:30! but that's not really what matters what matters is where it is in November!
Sorry Xena, I was replying to you as well as Max but I know the only thing people see on the reply or the first few words, so I wanted to make sure Max caught it
Max and all others, here is the FERC letter.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/9q5GatsYicZ3xvfj8