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They are scheduled for 4-22. Today or tomorrow will show up on PACER
Well congrats to the traders who sold in the mid 40's and missed the last run. Seems like fate has given you a second chance. Hope you don't miss it and hold out for fairy tale .38-.40 range.
I don't like to count on split second timing on high voltage stocks like WDDD. The gain from here to Markman will be hard to increase with trading. News could send us to .70 before you can reach the buy back in button. I prefer not to worry and just sit back and ride it out.
Thanks Buoy Blunder we needed our good luck charm today!
No but you will be able to draw a nice line from today to $1+ on 6-27. Markets go up and markets go down. Also volumes on up days are huge vs down days. Few sellers & more buyers just not at this one moment.
Are the same people who told you to buy @ 15¢ telling you to not buy in now?
Ok so your just performing the play by play huh?
Thanks.
Cooler,
Thanks for the feedback.
1) 6 years back would mean I would only drop off the last year 2005, and since I did not increase amounts for 2012-2017 this may in the end be a minor adjustment.
2) Calculating US revenue. From my previous experience, which granted is limited in this area, Canada revenue is more like a large state, and Mexico is half of that. If 90% is to high I would be shocked that its lower than 80%, but mine was just a guesstimate.
3) Taking patents out to 2017 was just my way of looking back to the original patent, which with the info you showed could actually go out to 2019.
4) Even though my numbers end up being huge the no growth for the next 4-6 years is almost ridiculous to consider. Looking at the Activision document you can see that COD is exploding and WOW is slowing dropping or flatlining. COD recently passed WOW and its possible by 2017 its revenue alone could be more than I estimated for both.
Again thanks for the feedback I just wanted to satisfy my curiosity and see where I think possibilities would take us. Also as big as my numbers are I tried to be conservative along the way. As we get more info in I will be glad to adjust my #'s accordingly.
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf
Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B
Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B
So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.
Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B
Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years
RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M
RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M
Going back to 2005 (Both WOW & COD were released in late 2004) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $13.9M $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $20.9M $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $27.8M $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M
Using same as 2012 going forward 5 additional years to 2017 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2017
2% $119M
3% $178.5M
4% $238M
Adding all years from 2005 - 2017 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $276M
3% $414M
4% $552M
If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $828M
3% $1.24B
4% $1.65B
Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for ATVI assuming full 100% Rev
RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.53B
3% $2.29B
4% $3.06B
Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.72B
3% $5.58B
4% $7.44B
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.49B or $14.90/sh cash
3% $2.23B or $22.30/sh cash
4% $2.98B or $29.80/sh cash
Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.
Depends Activision might know already they are completely screwed and may be thinking +$1B damages after trial. Settling for a quick $500 M could be a victory for both sides.
Not expecting it to happen but it has just as much a chance as all the stuff your floating.
Agreed most royalties will be paid in a lump sum that will be paid back as a div.
Huge upside an as you can see from Rains meager attempts even the bad side is no so bad.
With +$1.5 Billion possible from the patents you can decide which side you want to be on. For my money anything under $1 is a good deal going into Markman.
Again you somehow always only move toward worst case scenario. I don't think their will be an ATVI trial and settlement could be as soon as 6-26. I do expect suits will happen soon but again since the big dog has been beaten there is no reason for the little dogs to fight it at all so no Markman no new cases only settlements.
By 2015 all settlements will be been collected and all dividends will have been paid out. You might have some tax work to do on your extreme gains in 2015 but no cases or hearings beyond this 6-27 Markman.
This is maybe the easiest question I will answer this month.
After beating the big dog all the other dogs know they have lost and will not put up a fight and just settle quickly.
Worlds is not trolling for a few small pay days. They are in it for a huge series of pay days.
Rain that would be a worst case scenario. Why try for treble damages on 15-20 years of infringing only to settle for $20 Million? They would take this all the way through and put it in the jury's hands at that point. Also why would the investors buy into a plan that only can maximize their profits if the stock is over 75¢ in July? Sounds like they know what Kidrin thinks doesn't it?
I hope you give up your attempts to lower sp and buy back in soon.
Someone just called me and said "blue horseshoe loves WDDD"
YMB here I come!
Sorry I heard the wrong name the names I actually heard was Jean-Bernard Levy, Michael Griffith and Robert Kotick
Pssst I just overheard someone that someone named Eric Hirshberg just asked his broker to buy as much WDDD as the law would allow.
I'm not sure who that is but sounds like a good deal.
Obviously this may not be true and could possibly be just a rumor and not any real information at all.
Or you could just buy hold and forget about this until mid June and make huge $. Your decision bud but I like your spirit.
Cooler,
Excellent post!
I agree that lots of costs will come out of that first check, but going after the other 67%, even if they only get another 40% the costs for that would be much less. In your example a total damages of $1B-$1.2B (after getting $ from all possible sources) could easily end up with $5+ PPS after all fees and costs.
Thanks for the breakdown you obviously fill in the blanks that most of us assume everyone would understand, but many may not.
Nice to know that someone like you who has put considerable time and effort into researching Worlds is still bullish.
No long I know is hold their breath. Why? Run and base run and base is on track and the series of running and basing will surely end much much higher 1-2 weeks prior to Markman.
I believe he got into Apple @ $702.
Almost no chance of a Vringo style let down now. Markman hearing is a binary event. If Worlds is successful, and most think they have a great shot at a success Markman, the stock will go to $4+\-. If they lose Markman it will go to 10¢.
Reasons I am bullish include +1000% possible reward. Super legal All Star team working 100% on contingency with a previous history of beating Activision. Low risk of any big negative news between now and Markman. Most plan on selling some of their position into the teeth of the Markman surge +$1 PPS and at least myself will hold a sizable position through Markman.
Activision is only 1/3 the MMORPG industry, so our pie is huge. Google was 3/4 of Vringo so that was most of their pie.
Caution is always good but worry is not, at least not now.
Does anyone know of a case when a world class IP litigation team (such as S&G) took on someone 100% on contingency and lost outright? I assume its happened but I would think that the winning % for this setup is extremely high for our type of scenario.
Until Worlds gets over $1 PPS I don't see any reason to be worried or thinking to sell pre-Markman.
Why?
Simple Susman & Godfrey and superstar Max Tribble.
These guys are the masters in the field and ATVI's top attorney couldn't make our team. Prior art and complex patent litigation requires a skill that Susman has mastered.
After extensive research I have uncovered specifically what ATVI will say pre-Markman & at Markman.
"We have done nothing wrong"
I have also already found out what they will say Post-Markman.
"Who do we make the check out to?"
That was me and it never said this report would do that. All I said was be careful with your trades as news could hit at any time. The Vringo example was to show what could happen when the right news hits. If you thought It was for this one news event then you are wrong.
How many other large shareholders let you into their inner circle, and for free? I am thankful for EDVA giving up his valuable time and efforts to keep us informed. I'm sorry if you all were looking for a pump and dump opportunity. Worlds will rise on the efforts of Susman Godfrey and Superstar Max Tribble, and on their efforts alone. People who offer a glimpse behind the curtain on complicated plays like this one should be celebrated.
The next EDVA article outlining his damage estimates outta bring more boom boom to the party.
Worlds is set up to be legendary. IMO I have looked at other potential patent plays and Worlds has the most bang for the buck and by far. We will measure our amounts from ATVI in the hundreds of millions. Then post ATVI we still have 2/3 the money out there in the MMORPG industry. Seriously has anyone seen anything outside of a few message boards that understand the potential Worlds offers? 6 months from now your butcher, or taxi can driver will give you a hot tip on Worlds. Right now you couldn't be in a better place for the next 3-6 months. 100% is far lower than what I plan on getting from this investment from this point on. The fun is just beginning!
People are slow to get in after a big run, but make a base for a few days and then everyone wants in before the next run.
As others say rinse and repeat this will happen 4-6 more time prior to Markman.
Yes it was his final paragraph.
Bottom line is EDVA has 1.3-1.5 million shares and he ain't selling.
EDVA conclusion
We have opined in the past about the market undervaluing Worlds. One of the earliest things my group does is to form a rough opinion on a range of value that may be attained with a successful patent prosecution. There are numerous other factors that I will cover in later articles but in short, the market seems to have begun to recognize the value of the technology WDDD holds. Investors have also become increasingly aware of what a Markman hearing is and how it can change the face of a company overnight. With a share price in the .50 range we continue to see considerable upside for investors ahead of June 27.
Maybe this is EDVA buying more before dropping big news?
I EDVA I late IMO its because he had to rush some important info in at the last minute. He also never promised noon just that they would shoot for it. Might wait till after hours now.
Is EDVA on west coast time?
I understand how you feel, but if EDVA brings 5-10 guys into this and they buy 100K each, or even just get 10% of current holders to buy additional shares it will move the needle. Most are in Worlds for +$1 and as we have stated before the lack of sellers is one of the reason the stock price is still so low. If we had a continuous supply of shares for buyers to get without blowing up the PPS I think we would be much higher already.
It looked like we were on the way to buy the rumor and sell the news but with yesterday's pullback I think that is off the table now. Had we ran into the 60's today on EDVA we would have surely pulled back to this level after his news no matter how earth shaking it might be.
Trading these plays are very dangerous as mentioned before selling Vringo on 3-30-12 @ $1.65 you missed a double when news hit over the weekend and caused the stock to double on Monday 4-2-12.
SA hasn't had an article hit focused primarily on Worlds yet but I know for a fact they are in the works. Keep your trades small.
As far as MikeHD yeah he was worthless but I thought EDVA asked for donations at one point. Maybe I am wrong? I hold EDVA in the highest regard and I am already looking forward to his damages estimates article soon after today's prior art breakdown.
Not just games but any 3D avatar where servers are used in a Massive Multiple Avatar environment. Mobile would obviously work the same way as non mobile because in the end 3D an through a server doesn't matter if your at home or on the road.
Kidrin the CEO states "social sites are also infringing". Round 2 suits FB & ZNGA? While collecting settlements from other pure MMORPG companies.
$10 PPS may end up being a low estimate.
Good Morning and Great Day! EDVA laying out how great Worlds will be at approx noon today!
Link to his blog:
http://edvapatent.wordpress.com/
EDVA posts to his blog because he wants his posts to be available to everyone at a stated time. SA and other places don't offer the same instant postings his blog offers. This will be extremely important when he is at the hearing or if it comes to it the trial. Yes be will be attending the hearing in 7 weeks. If he asks for some donations, as he did with the Vringo trial, it is only to cover his expenses. I have great respect for EDVA, 99% of us are not able to attend this hearing but it will seem like we are all there with his excellent and instant reporting.
Just want to point out T - 21 hours from EDVA unleashing a case of whoop arse.
A few reasons I will not sell at any price prior to Markman.
1) NCSoft provided Worlds and their legal dream team superstar Max Tribble and Susman Godfrey a road map to beat Activision. The prior art NCSoft provided along with the continued strengthening of Worlds original patents gave Susman all they needed to take down Activision. This takes Worlds from a 50:50 shot at a positive Markman and sends the odds hugely in favor of Worlds. IMO more like 90:10.
2) Understated $ amounts. IMO treble damages will be a slam dunk as Worlds has already disclosed that they approached Activision years ago about a licensing deal. So no way Activision could say they didn't know they were infringing. Activisions revenue is measured in the billions $4.8 Billion last year. If we assume half of that revenue is MMORPG revenue and half of that from their 2 largest games COD & WOW, which are the Worlds named for this suit, and assume half of this revenue is from US we get a ballpark # of $600 Million. A victory at trial should result in a royalty of 3.5%, or $21M/yr. Now treble this amount for willful infringing and you get to $63M for just last year. Over the life of the patent this amount easily surpasses $750 Million.
3) Activision will settle for all their MMORPG revenue which by many estimates is double COD & WOW. So assuming a victory at trial it's likely unless Activision settles with Worlds for all games they will be back in court with another $750 Million in damages and royalties in play.
4) Avtivision is only 1/3 of the total pool of MMORPG US revenue so it would be possible to triple the final $ amount from Activision to get us to the total amounts possible for Worlds to get.
I look forward to EDVA's analysis to compare with mine but to me the vast majority if holders in this stock do not have a clue how valuable the stock is they hold right now.
My estimates pre-Markman is $2 PPS. Post Markman $4. Post trial with Activision $6. Final price 2 years from today after a dozen MMORPG settlements $10. As you can see HUGE potential!
And we haven't even talked about the potential social site suits.