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Did I say nice to close today @ .44? Should have went for .46!
This is big volume compared to the last few days. Buyers giving up on a retest of the .385 level.
Hope to see a few SA articles coming next week putting Worlds back into the spotlight!
Be nice to close around .44 today.
I look forward to reading your article. You always seem to have a tight grasp of what will happen. I just hope your pre-Markman prediction of .70-.90 comes true!
Sounds great flyers! Have you opened a position yet?
Good Morning WDDDers!
Great time to load up more shares. Buyers will move back in once their sure the bottom is in, which is surely is.
Great weekend this weekend! Ky Derby! Star Wars Day! Cinco de Mayo!
Next week will be very exciting. I think there will be a story or 2 next week laying the groundwork for a huge run over the next 45 days! SA authors are just like you and me they want success and will want to show everyone their stocks will move. All it will take is a nudge to get World's running to new highs! The Core 20 will earn huge rewards for loading up under .42. IMO an easy double the next 38 trading days.
GLTA
Facts are on this type of play you can't find a reason to buy in the morning and have missed the first 10% of the next move by the closing bell. Lots of profits made in other plays will find it way moving back into WDDD.
We are beyond due for a news story, surely someone will step out on the ledge and post some estimates of what Worlds will demand from Activision. Post successful Markman there is no way this is below $3. And since that reward is not a huge risk there has to be a rebalancing of risk prior to the hearing date which is as of now just a little over 38 days from now.
Vringo had a huge 100% move in 2 days when damage estimates were first proposed. Worlds can have the same type of run once traders realize Worlds stands to get more money than Vringo ever had a chance to get.
Activision opens the door for a dozen other suits/settlements and hundreds of millions & possibly +$1B when the dust settles!
Yes but wouldn't you agree the total money flooding into patent plays in general is skyrocketing. Which mean moves will be fast and furious when they hit.
Seems like over the past 2 weeks every possible patent play is up except for WDDD. My guess is anyone trying to chase the other plays now will have missed the bulk of these runs and most likely miss the next leg up on WDDD. The amount of money building into these plays is rising dramatically which tells me when we do move a 50% in a week is entirely possible and very probable.
Just look at DSS, MGT, COPY, MARA & OTIV to name a few are all significantly higher since WDDD peaked.
That's fine there is room for everyone. Plus I still think more money from here to Markman than from .20 to now.
I forgot a cornerstone of the core 20 of course EDVA has his own wing.
GLTA
Core 20
Myself
Celtics
CB
LOL
Tinker
Joe N
Coolerheads
Madprofit
Anicoagent
Dancingblonde
ThinkingMan
Nolerman
OP1
Bhonda
Smitter
D8catman
Realizer
Art35
Tryz
The guy with the chump face avatar
Ghart
I know I am forgetting a few....
Core 20
Myself
Celtics
CB
LOL
Tinker
Joe N
Coolerheads
Madprofit
Anicoagent
Dancingblonde
ThinkingMan
I know I am forgetting a few....
What other play is in a better position?
83M total shares very low 8-12M float
Potential to receive RR from more than a dozen companies! Think about that for a second how many other IP plays with a Market Cap under $40M have a chance to receive over a dozen settlements/running royalties?
Huge $15B/Yr industry growing at 15%-20% per year!
7 years of future royalties according to Thom Kidrin!
World Class Susman Godfrey whose so sure the case is rock solid they are doing this 100% on contingency!
Superstar Max Tribble pumped to lead this suit and has already beaten Activision!
Someone find me a better potential for massive increases over the next 2-3 months????
Core 20 going to clean up!
Good Morning WDDD!
Good Morning Core 20!
Bottom is in, Vringo will reach some end game prior to Markman!
Next stop new all time highs!
39 trading days left!
Is going to be awesome!
Comment left in the 4-19 EDVA story. Looks like we will have a new SA author soon.
David O'Berry
May 1 04:31 PM
I am still in process on the article I mentioned previously with the fundamental patent exploration. I am convinced this company has the goods right now but that does not mean they will win. I am concerned about some of the prior art citations not as far as that they cited them but that the quality, expertise, and knowledge of the patent examiner could be a serious point of contention and the way they approach it based on how early these initial patents were filed and how little base knowledge existed at that point.
That could also work in World's favor but it's just something to think about one way or the other.
I think the pure play is incredibly strong especially until patent reform hits which I think it will.
I think so also we may get another test but the big sells in the middle of the day today was at the same time Vringo news hit and that rush couldn't pull it under .40. Hopefully May will be a very profitable month.
And hopefully Vringo money will get in for the final push over $1.
Don't forget the pigs.
Big difference is one can be a +10 bagger in 6 months.
Vringo could be a huge winner and I hope it is, but not in this ballpark.
That's what I don't understand SA writers get paid per reader. Worlds would have tons of reads. Notice how WDDD ends up in several articles but is never discussed?
Mad you and CB both should post a story on SA.
Looks like Vringo may actually finish prior to our Markman date.
This is good news!
Yeah all of the articles outside of EDVA's either barely mention Worlds or botch the few facts they try to show. My favorite was the one yesterday that should how high the pre-Markman run was for us. But it didn't say Markman is still 55 days out. The final pre-Markman run will be much higher.
I agree WDDD will be the top % increase in the field of IP plays over the next 45-60 days. And if Markman is successful it could be the top % play many of us will ever be in for the next 90 days.
I also warned people not to buy in the BCYP because it had already ran up huge.
I have looked at all the plays cooler has posted including MARA which has been pumped and pumped but hasn't moved any at all.
Worlds is where you want to be now.
Big 34K buyer lurking.
MARA has been pumped several times but is not going any higher.
I am considering a position but this worries me.
What is the reason for the stall?
Good Morning WDDD!
Today starts the next leg higher!
Countdown to Markman is on!
41 trading days left!
Since EDVA's article on prior art:
Worlds has had zero articles.
MGT has had 4 SA articles.
MARA has had 6 news articles.
BCYP has had 2.
We have been in a news vacuum and we need news to keep any momentum. We will have a huge run once someone accurately outlines the potential reward after a positive Markman.
Just wait it out a little longer folks good times are on the way.
Thank goodness tomorrow is May! Someone start the countdown tomorrow morning. My math says 41 trading days till Markman.
I bet we get 4-5 stories laying out how undervalued Worlds is by that time. So expect good news every other week at a minimum from here on.
Seriously? 50¢?
You have to decide what is most likely to happen.
Is Worlds likely to beat Activision in a Markman hearing? If you don't think so then you shouldn't be here. I feel that is not only likely but highly likely Worlds wins at Markman. Why am I confident?
1 Superstar Max Tribble and his track record that's one reason + 9 months of DD done by the foremost experts who are so confident they are footing the entire bill.
2 already forced a settlement from NCSoft.
3 patents strengthened since NCSoft case.
After Markman what do you think Worlds will go after for damages and license fees? Activision has & will make +$15 Billion in the US off COD & WOW during the time frame we will be seeking damages and licensing from.
2% of that is $300,000,000.00. COD & WOW are only part of what the final settlement will be and we haven't brought up treble damages yet.
With this make or break Markman hearing Worlds stands to win or lose billions.
How is it possible to go into Markman at 4% market cap to the dollars available after a successful Markman? The street is drastically under pricing Worlds now. Hard to imagine staying under $1.
My guess is some Mods don't like über positive facts.
Gotta ask but EDVA pushing BCYP.
It's cap is larger than Worlds and by all indications they will get less than Worlds plus the Markman is 60 days after Worlds.
They are taking everyone to Markman where Worlds is only taking the largest player. 2 different tactics, but in my opinion I wouldn't want to go up against everyone and if Worlds beats Activision easy settlements will follow.
Just don't see the logic to buy BCYP over Worlds. Maybe if Worlds was more expensive but its not its cheaper.
Big seller pulled the balance again could see a flush soon. It was approx 190K last time I saw it.
Regardless as I said earlier sellers sell for hundreds of reasons. If this seller could have waited a few more days I think history will show they made a very poor decision to sell out at the bottom of a pullback and not into the coming surge.
I have to say most everyone thinks this is going up to anywhere from .7-$1.25 by Markman.
Is it really so important to hope for another 2¢ drop before getting in. I think all buyers today will be glad they got in on such a great day to buy in.
Wait another hour and that chance may no longer be here.
I don't know how much you planned in buying but a bid at .42 might get some or all of those shares sitting there at .425.
Yes I also think we will see an estimate from 1 other author and I am hoping a 3rd joins in.
Hard to imagine another 2 week period with no news from now till Markman like we have just had.
Kidrin wouldn't think of selling under $2-$3. IMO Vringo has no chance to buy this outright. It would be nice if they partnered and opened up a nice 10% position in Worlds.
Worlds beats all other patent plays due to it having the nearest Markman date and the largest possible recovery of all as well.
Throw that in with a tiny market cap, 1 insider who won't sell any until we get in the dollars and world class representation fully on contingency. You get an explosive situation!
Hard to say but the potential seller didn't sell his large block, its not currently for sale and it did lower the price by 6%.
Lots of buying going on down here. Still don't see is getting back to .40 unless an EDVA type of dump occurs.
People sell for all kinds of reasons. Who know if or why this guy is going to sell. Seems to me a smart move would be to sell on the next big up day, but I guess he can't wait a few days to do that??
Great time to buy more.
Good time for someone who wants to buy in without raising the ask to far. Whoever he is he had them up at .455 and took it down to .445. If he would have just set them at .465 they would all sell today but the idiot thinks he needs the money within the hour I guess.
Cheap shares available someone selling off 221K.
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
Modified from Coolerhead's suggestions. Plus adding list of future suits beyond Activision.
From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf
Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B
Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B
So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.
Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B
Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years
RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M
RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M
Going back to 2006 (Due to limit of previous 6 years) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M
Using same as 2012 going forward 6 (Kidrin stated 7 years left on patents back in 2012) additional years to 2018 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2018
2% $142.8M
3% $214.2M
4% $285.6M
Adding all years from 2006 - 2018 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $286M
3% $429M
4% $572M
If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $858M
3% $1.29B
4% $1.72B
Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for all MMORPG ATVI Rev I am using a safe # of 80%. 62% of 2011 Revenue was WOW + COD + Diablo 3 (Diablo 3 went to 5 players paying against each other which isn't the same as WOW or COD, but should fit into our patents IMO).
RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.27B
3% $1.91B
4% $2.54B
Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.08B
3% $4.62B
4% $6.16B
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash
Other suits beyond Activision could include:
Disney
Electronic Arts
Facebook
Zynga
Take Two
Nintendo
Square Enix
Ubisoft
Sega
THQ
Namco Bandai
Konami
Google
Yahoo
Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.