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ee bass....... IMO the 30's were yesterday....40's will be a deal in the near future...the chart action dictated by fundalmentals, which I rely on, is giving an indication that even the 40's will soon be gone and yes it will have been a good entry.
Just look at the chart action of Hemi back in Jan/Feb when Hemi is was in .15 -.20; CMF and MACD look the same??? and then look where Hemi went, also take a look and the chart action CMF and MACD just before the bolted to .90.
Tell me that doesn't tell a story.
Kels
And the MACD turned green, CMF strengthened..we might be on to something this week!!!
Kels
Could be a quick peek at the upcoming close for the day!!:))
Kels
HMGP is beginning to move and the indication is up.....and it is starting this PM....To much good going on and potential......and.............
Yes you are in the heart of oil land. A couple of weeks ago I drove from Houston to Dallas up I-45. I couldn't believe all the activity once we got half way up to Dallas.....right next the highway..........oil rigs. I had a great 3 days in the field that week!!!
Kels
HMGP is beginning to move and the indication is up.....and it is starting this PM....To much good going on and potential......and.............
Yes you are in the heart of oil land. A couple of weeks ago I drove from Houston to Dallas up I-45. I couldn't believe all the activity once we got half way up to Dallas.....right next the highway..........oil rigs. I had a great 3 days in the field that week!!!
Kels
The Hemi kitchen is getting hot.....NITE doing every thing in its power to hold this level!!!
Bid rising.......ask rising.....it may pop at any moment.
Kels
Duelittle2, careful on how you read this. About a week ago I posted the same observation, that the descending 20MA was approaching the ascending 50MA or an uptrending wedge.
I also stated this past week that from a chart perspective it may give some going forward insights and thus keep an eye on the chart and its indicators as the inflection point approaches.
My observations from this past week:
1. Again attempts were made (MM's ???)to bring HMGP down but each time as selling occurred, at the close it bounced back strong (i.e two attempts to bring HMGP <.30 -each strong rebound).
I won't get into the MM's, LOWMAN has all bases covered there and IMO he has it pegged.
2. HMGP is just under the 50MA and last week there was no news. If ever there was an opportunity to get some additional panic selling going, Thursday after 10AM was the day.
3. Last week provides another week (more shares purchased of the total) of consolidation in the .38-.40 close area just strengthens the current floor for HMGP.
4. O/S increase of this past week did not have any negative impact.
5. CMF has turned positive. This is BIG in my book. Had the CMF turned down or weakened this past week then I would be concerned short term, but it didn't in fact it strengthen. This tells alot of the "behind the scenes". And the MACD is increasing too.
6. We are a week closer to news and updates and based on the indication of past news, the timetable is just about right for Hemi to provide some additional news. When you think about it, last week was really not the best week (short week and holiday). Why not take a little more time and do the job right?? This has already been stated by Hemi.
Bottom line IMO is that Hemi is now coiled so tightly that when the cataylist is provided to lite the fuse HMGP is going to move and move strongly. The chart 20/50 inflection will hit this week and you will see the 20MA dip under the 50MA (briefly: simple math tells you this), but should the right news be released then this IMO will not diminish the positive impact. On the flip side, should a negative develop then the opposite could occur and the 20/50 inflection would become a confirmation of a downtrend. This is what risk is all about but in Hemi case risk management is pretty good!!
AND again I go back and I put my position back to the CMF of this past week and the message I am getting is "all systems go".
Kels
Well Lowman you have connected the dots....I call it the.......
WEAR & TEAR GAME
You gotta believe that many of these MM's must be crossed eyed by now....
Yes they gave Hemi a run for its money and at times a number a weak appeared to fold..........but another positive side to this is the base that has been established in the .35-.40 area by those that quickly bought up those weaklings. This basing is also right around the 50MA and the fact that twice Hemi held .30 indicating double bottom intraday and both times rebounded back into this basing area, tells me that this is a very positive chart that in time will reward those that stay the course.
Kels
Add into the positive mix that the CMF is now positive and the MACD is about to turn ++.......
Has the same appearance when Hemi was back in the .15 - .20 area as it broke to the upside.
This is/was a short week....holiday now here... has allowed Hemi the time to do it right, although news this past would have been nice to see and I too thought we might have seen a news release....I agree that next week some updates and/or news will be released by Hemi.
In my book not only does next week is look good but rest of this spring and summer looks great as well in the short term for Hemi.
Lowman, not sure if your still in Ocala, but the weather in Tampa was great this week, even better down here in the Keys for the upcoming weekend once this front blows out this AM. Was interesting to see the responds by the local Tampa area regarding the prediction released earlier this week for the upcoming season, talking about pre-preparation for all coastal areas....good to see.
Looking forward to a little Easter weekending offshoring and then seeing Hemi rev it up next week.
Kels
Yup, I stated this finding a couple of weeks ago another factor (good or bad) that you must take into account if you are in the O&G play.
Kels
Yup, every element from the charts.... to the indication of updates or announcements from Hemi....... the oil market's current strength and the demand of spring driving as it turns to summer driving......and life in the oil patch is blooming from what I saw in Texas the week before last.
YES NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY INTERESTING..and I think in a very good Hemi way.
By the way Lowman are you still in Ocala??...I'm heading to Tampa tomorrow night for my work week and then some good old offshoring (fishing) next weekend back in the Keys.
Kels
Maybe time to start eye balling the chart. The 13MA, 20MA & 50MA are all starting to converge.
The following as of 03/30/07:
13MA = .41
20MA = .46
50MA = .41
Close 03/30/07 = .385
My observation -
1. When the 13MA dipped below the 20MA, HMGP dipped to .32 but made a very quick recovery back above the 50MA. (Advantage Long)
2. HMGP has has been having a hard time breaking above above the 13MA. (Advantage buyer on the sideline)
3. The 20MA is slowing closing in on the 50MA (Advantage ??)
4. Fridays close was just below the 50MA (Advantage MM)
IMO HMGP is going to breakout of this chart pattern next week, either a break above the 13MA and 20MA confirming the uptrend that has been in place or a confirming break to the downside should the 20MA break under the 50MA in which case the 100MA and 200MA come into play.
Friday action is a tuff call, on one side from a chart perspective the close under the 50MA is not good, but then again it was a Friday and as we all know the MM's can try and create a false move or head fakes to establish their positions and Friday is great trading day to play the head games. Many have indicated that some large short positions are trying hard to gather as many shares as possible and are shaking the weak. This type of chart action plays right into this type strategy if MM's are trying to gather shares and I agree that many are trying to position themsleves based on this short position.
The 20MA/50MA wedge is still in play indicating that the inflection point is close, probably later next week should this daily action continue. And indications are that Hemi will be releasing some very good info and updates soon. Oil is strong and the demand is increasing with spring here and the upcoming driving season. Hemi has eliminated the need to hire outside service work by purchasing it's own equipment, operated by it's own experience staff and is in the process of drilling on its leases. Confirmation should be soon regarding the recent geological report and IMO this confirmation may exceed the reports findings.
So why eye ball the current chart? Because it is an indicator of the next likely break and it appears that it will be very soon. The difficult question is which way up or down?
My strategy with HMGP has been long term and remains long term, but as in all investing, you need that 3,000 mile check-up (oil change) and the next couple of weeks will be a check-up time to see if my current strategy with Hemi is validated and stays in force with some more additional add-ons to my current position or if some other adjustments are needed
Nice chart Duelittle2, outlines the above.
Kels
We'll see Jag...time will shortly tell with HMGP...I'll stick to Tax Day and yes when I use the word "no brainer" I assumed that you would understand......and its appears that you did in your own way!!
LMAO
Kels
OH..another point...the CMF IS NOT as bad as October 06....in fact the CMF is starting to take a favorable positive turn back up by the MACD and IMO during the past month the CMF although negative was actually pretty decent for the Hemi PPS activity from .90.
Time for a 101 Technical chart class???
Kels
Jag...I hesitate to respond to your post but....by Tax Day either you will be eating your words or I will be eating mine.
Your point plays right into my court and assessment of the current Hemi chart pattern.....every technical element of Hemi is tightening up......like an elastic band it will break out of this pattern....normally I would not go out on a ledge...but in the case of Hemi IMO this is a no brainer.
It is going to happen for Hemi and when it does as I have stated before..............My money is in.
We will see who is eating crow in a short period of time.
Kels
Some more technical stuff....the MACD is just about to turn positive...if we can get the CMF to do the same then IMO up we go...and the 20/50MA wedge continues to narrow.
Kels
Some interesting HMGP chart observations. The following:
20MA= 0.47
50MA= 0.40
200MA= 0.16
The 20 MA is now declining and approaching the 50 MA. The 50MA is maintaining a slow increase towards the 20 MA. This is a classical uptrending wedge pattern during a consolidation period. It appears that current support is at the 50MA = .40 and recent resistance appears to be the 20MA = .47.
What this is telling me is that as the 20 & 50 MA approach each other, as a wedge, very soon either HMGP will break the 20MA resistance or HMGP will break the 50MA support. IMO both possible events have a major impact on the PPS.
A break under the 50 MA for a prolong period would be a negative and most likely the 20MA would also break under the 50MA. From a chart perspective this would be damaging.
A break over the 20MA would be positive and healthy confirming the recent consolidation and basing of the recent month. HMGP would then be in a chart position to move up to challenge the recent highs.
One of these two chart events will be occurring very soon. I've held the majority of my position (taking only seed money out) since Dec. My money saids HMGP will break to the upside, there is just too much potential and ongoing activity with Hemi that supports a rising PPS and from a chart perspective this should be soon.
Kels
Reminds me of the Three Stoogies...I wouldn't let them get under your skin...in time NVMG will get there and those that just blow hot air from time to time will just that...hot air.
Kels
That just above covers it...... excellent summary....
Many do need to be reminded about the big picture that is coming into focus as Hemi moves forward.
You know the old jigsaw puzzle comparison. When you first start a jigsaw puzzle its total bewilderment. At first it is slow as the pieces (Hemi leases) start coming together, then the picture (the drills) starts to come into focus (installed) and suddenly it all comes together (production - BOD).
Kels
OT....for some interesting background on Wind Farm Power visit www.nawindpower.com.
March edition has a featured topic "Tax Credits Drive Innovative Finance Structure".
If you read this or do some additional DD on Wind Farms and the tax incentives that are available and have been extended by the federal government, maybe NVMG is on to something!!!!???
And many here were scratching their heads about this move by NVMG!!
Not a bad business move and decision if you understand the how the wind farm industry works with the energy industry.
Kels
Newbies to HMGP....don't ya just luv'em.......soon they too will learn the Hemi story of success.
Nice odds Lowman....but do not believe he/she has the poker face to play that game!!!!!!!!!!
Talk is easy....Action is quite a bit different
Kels
Lowman....I had this "little" feeling that you would respond. Comparing RGNO to HMGP is like comparing a wooden nickle to a gold coin.
Yes they are both round but its the value that stands out!!!
Kels
Nice little News update and exposure to the big boys by Hemi today:
Kels
Hemi Energy Group CEO Updates the Investor Community At Wall Street Reporter.com
Mar 28, 2007 10:45:57 (ET)
NEW YORK, Mar 28, 2007 (PrimeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Wall Street Reporter Magazine has just published an exclusive interview with Keith A. Anderson, President and CEO of Hemi Energy Group Inc. (Pink Sheets:HMGP), updating the investment community on Hemi's recent drilling activity, equipment purchase, and long-term prospects.
"We found ourselves being blocked in on equipment availability, so we bought our own and we're going to do it in-house," Mr. Anderson told Wall Street Reporter senior analyst Matt Schilling about his company's recent purchase of a Pulstar P20000 truck to work over mature oilfield assets in Southeastern Kansas. "We'll bring this field back to life."
The 8-minute interview is now available at www.wallstreetreporter.com in streaming audio, MP3, and text format.
Highlights include detailed discussions of the following topics:
- The industry dynamics underlying Hemi's decision to buy and operate
its own field equipment.
- Recent progress toward redeveloping the field, including the
"pretty good" test results from an initial well using modern
completion techniques.
- The field's history as a "vast" producer over nine decades
(since 1916 to be exact) and its current status as something
of a "jigsaw puzzle" with 2.2 million barrels of oil still in
place.
- The aggressive drilling program (about a well a week) Hemi has
lined up for most of the remainder of 2007.
- Management's wide-ranging and deep operational and administrative
expertise.
- Hemi's unique strategic focus is on identifying opportunities that
offer attractive operational economies.
"We're doing it a little differently from other oil companies," Mr. Anderson told Wall Street Reporter. "We look at the oil and gas economics. We were operating here in Texas and we sold our assets simply because the economics were not as good as in Kansas. I think in Kansas, we can go through and do a drill, redevelopment, complete the well, and we're having to date approximately a 60-day payback on our investment. We haven't been able to find oilfield economics like that anyplace else in the United States."
Interesting Article regarding current Middle East production, specifically Saudi Arabia, I have highlighted some the major points and made reference to web sites for further info.
Kels
Crude Awakening: Long-term, Prices Should Continue To Rise
Wednesday March 28, 5:08 am ET
Investing the Middle Way submits: The last time we looked at the oil chart was in a post about CanRoys. At the time, there were plenty of oil bears on CNBC predicting $20-30 oil, but I was pretty sure that $50 was going to hold.
Fast forward two months, oil’s back up to $63 a barrel. The talking heads would again have you believe that geopolitical tension is the sole cause while completely glossing over the fact that the rebound started long before this latest Iranian incident.
Personally I cringe every time I hear geopolitical events being used as an excuse for price increases, be it oil or gold or anything else. What’s usually left unsaid is that the prices invariably fall as such events subside. Except that quite often the prices don’t fall as much as they rise… While Iran may have contributed a couple of dollars to the oil price, there are greater forces at work. I’ll show a couple quick charts and links and leave you to make your own conclusions.
The first is Saudi oil output in the past five years. The data from four different sources were averaged to produce the black line. Over 2006, Saudi production declined from 9.4 MM bpd to just above 8.5 MM bpd. The full article can be found at the OilDrum.
Next is the Baker Hughes oil rig count for Saudi Arabia. The data is only up to early 2006. The rig count increased drastically in 2005, with no apparent corresponding increase in output. So it would seem that the new wells replaced declining production elsewhere, or Saudi Aramco embarked on a massive exploration program, or both. Oil price peaked in July 06, but other than a small supply bump in the middle of the year, Saudi production was a straight line down in 2006.
Was the reduction in Saudi oil output by choice or due to production limitations? I leave you to ponder that question. By the way, if you haven’t read Matt Simmons’ Twilight in the desert, now would be an excellent time.
Caveat: This is a look at the long term supply of crude oil, not a short term call to buy oil or oil stocks. As a matter of fact, I think oil will likely move down in the short term to form the right shoulder of an inverse H&S formation. If concerns about world economic growth emerge then $WTIC may retest the lows at $50. It would be a grand buying opportunity if were to happen.
Nice find....some good stuff for the basis of prediction.
Kels
If we all lived in a perfect world then we would not need to worry or factor in "Outside Factors" but in reality that is not the case.
Yes Hemi will do fine on its own merits and yes we will all probably profit to some extent from "hurricane highs" or turmoil in the middle east at some point if you invest in the energy sector specifically the domestic O&G. Sadly speaking these are characteristics that impact all energy stocks and when investing in the O&G sector a part of the DD that needs to be reviewed and considered
When I look or hold an investment like HMGP, I take into account all "Factors". Do I wish for a hard hurricane season or turmoil in the middle east..............NO
Do I weigh this into the going forward potential and reason to hold an investment like HMGP or any other O&G stock............Absolutely YES.
Unfortunately these are "Outside Factors" that must be weighed in..... like it or not........... and the investor that understands the influences of these "Outside Factors" will probably be better positioned in both understanding the O&G marketplace and executing when developing a strategy with the O&G sector.
Kels
Lowman...you got that right....hurricanical....I like it....if it not a word it is a great metaphor!!!
Kels
Rocketstocks...you and I are on the same page, I posted a related topic of the up coming hurricane season on the HMGP board about an hour ago.
One of my work related tools relies on the weather prediction, specifically the hurricane season....it's what I call a tool for risk management a needed element in underwriting O&G's.
The positive to a negative/strong hurricane season prediction is that the land based O&G operations are in a great position.....and Montana/ND is not in hurricane territory!!!
Kels
Upbeatmofool..by no means do I want to see this type of event...my point is that these "Outside Factors" do influence the O&G industry; they are in play and will benefit the domestic O&G play.
We Hemi shareholders already know the "Inside Factors" of Hemi and its potential going forward.
Reality is:
This is the world we live in and from an investor perspective it's these "Outside Factors" that have no rules...maybe it's justice for the MM's that try and pull the naked short game.
Kels
And now after hours oil is $64.40.........looks like Iran is starting to stir things up with the US as well..rumor flying about a possible strike by Iran on a US military vessel.....
but White House denies.........
Hmmm could be it that boy George is trying to help Tony???
Kels
And my final Hemi variable of the night...
I like the current base building in this .40 area. I understand that many are getting restless, but based on the indication of the shares that are currently being purchased by a good number of longs vs. the amount of shares available along with the possible naked shorting mention by Lowman, the potential (reserves and actual drilling in progress) that the future holds for Hemi along with the progress and informative PR releases by Hemi over the past 6-9 months; this is a great place and time for Hemi to build a strong PPS base platform.
When all this (these variables) come together my only advise is look out....if your are not long Hemi IMO a CAT 5 Hurricane will be a push over compare to the Hemi locomotive that will be in motion.
Kels
Another variable......and its on the nightly news right now ....tension in the Mid East specifically Britian and Iran...good old Tony is now ready the elevate this issue to a "different phase".
And you know if that occurs Bush will probable back him 100%...tit for tat....Iran for Iraq.
Kels
This is one variable (weather-Hurricane season) that will come into play for the O&G as spring becomes summer.
I have have referred to this over the past month, just wait until NOAA/hurricane center release it's official prediction in May.
Read the below, its already taking shape and as unfortunately at the expense and worry for the Gulf State residents this is another big positive for the O&G property lease companies.....no worry about those big rigs sitting in the Gulf of Mexico.
Read the below article out today
Kels
Strong hurricanes to hit U.S. Gulf in 07: AccuWeather By Janet McGurty
Tue Mar 27, 1:24 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Gulf Coast, which is still rebuilding almost two years after Hurricane Katrina, faces a renewed threat of powerful storms this year, private forecaster AccuWeather said on Tuesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
After a quiet hurricane season last year, Florida and other Gulf Coast states likely will be hit with fewer storms than during the active 2005 season, which spawned the massive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, AccuWeather said.
But the storms forecast for the region will pack a punch.
"We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but the intensity of the storms we do get will be of major concern," Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.com, said in a statement.
British forecasting group Tropical Storm Risk this month also predicted an active storm season. It forecast four "intense" hurricanes during the 2007 season, which runs from June through November.
The predictions spell trouble for areas still recuperating from a chain of hurricanes that slammed the Gulf Coast in 2005.
"The entire region -- including New Orleans and other areas that are still rebuilding after Katrina -- is susceptible to storms," Bastardi said.
Katrina killed about 1,500 people along the Gulf Coast in 2005, displaced tens of thousands more and caused billions of dollars in damage.
Bastardi also said that storms forecast to hit this year could once again disrupt oil and natural gas operations along the Gulf Coast, driving up energy prices for consumers.
"This year's stronger storms are likely to be the kind of disruption that will be felt in wallets and pocketbooks," he said.
U.S. gasoline prices reached a record high of $3.057 per gallon after Katrina, which caused oil refineries to shut down and companies to evacuate workers from oil and gas producing rigs in the Gulf.
After Hurricane Rita hit the region a month after Katrina, as much as 14 percent of U.S. refinery capacity was shut and about 80 percent of crude oil and 66 percent of natural gas production were down for months.
Bastardi also predicted the U.S. Northeast would likely be a target for strong storms for the next 10 years.
"Last year, the Northeast may have dodged a bullet but, unfortunately, you can only be lucky for so long. We are in a pattern similar to that of the late 1930s through the 1940s, when the Northeast was hit by two major storms," he said.
The relative calm of last year's hurricane season, which forecasters had mistakenly predicted would be busy, came on the heels of a record 28 storms and 15 hurricanes in 2005 and only a slightly less furious season in 2004.
Bastardi said that, despite the milder 2006 season, the trend was toward strong hurricanes and tropical storms.
"We are living in a time of climatic hardship," Bastardi said. "We're in a cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception."
Exactly, every Hemi shareholder must do (trade) and live with what they are most comfortable with.
If Hemi was a "typical pinkie"; I too would day trade the h*ll of it for these penny moves, but Hemi is not your "typical pinkie" and soon the PPS explosion will happen (no pun intended) and many will be left in the dust.
That is a risk that I am not willing to take with HMGP. The story has not changed, in fact IMO, it just got better.
Kels
IMO "Advanced completion techniques" is a very good indiction that what Hemi is discovering during this drilling process is good.
I am familiar with Texas O&G operational advanced techniques and this combined with the indicated Hemi geological report is laying the ground work for me that these Kansas reserves are going to exceed. DD2 has been implying this all along with his posts since Feb about the Kansas leases.
The writing is on the wall, this is an opportunity that is starting to take shape. Connecting the dots in the proper order is going to pay huge benefits down the road and to not take the proper time and procedure now would be a foolish move. All the indicators presented by Hemi point to a very successful find.
This is my read on todays PR...doing it the right way...capitalizing on the potential as the drilling moves forward....will only maximize the potential revenue flow of the future.
IMO and as many have indicated those that have the discipline to hold on to your shares are going to be rewarded.
It is going to happen for Hemi.
Kels
LMAO....if true be careful.
Kels
Yup it has been very quite.....an update by Hemi would help too! At least it would get some conversation going.
Again, after what I saw last week in Texas regarding the O&G drilling activity.....Hemi must be close to releasing some news or update. There is just to much going on and IMO Hemi is in the thick of it.
Kels
Exactly...and it is already starting in many parts of "Oil Land" to get jammed up if your a O&G company that needs to contract in these services from the outside.
Kels
I just spent the last week in Texas out in the O&G industry field....See my 03/24/07 observations on the HMGP board if you want some back ground...
Bottom line, IMO NVMG has made the right move regarding these rigs......currently the competition to sub out the server's including equipment is unbelievable including the mid size and larger O&G scheduling many of these server's/independent contractors just to decrease the availability to the little guy......
You know try to squeeze the small one where it hurts.
The activity in the field is increasing rapidly, 3 of land base O&G operations that I visited where ramping up and all will be >85% operational by the end of April.
Yes this is a very good time to be involved with the O&G leasors if the potential is there (reserves) and most importantly they can execute their business strategy....selling the product is no issue both under contract and on the spot market!!!
Kels
HMGP going forward....
IMO its time to start up the Hemi updating and informing for the Hemi shareholders and I am not referring to a pumping with fluff type of releases. Again after spending the week in the Texas region and specifically in the O&G field there is just to much happening in the O&G leasing industry to remain silent.
Hemi has the goods, the management, the business model and the equipment to succeed big time in this industry but......
and this is only an observation from a week in the O&G field........
so do a number of other emerging O&G lease companies.
My point is simple there is the business side of the equation and there is an investor side of the equation as well and in this equation lies a fine balance. No question, the business side will drive the success of Hemi, I believe many agree with this point, but this investor side is needed as well. And as the successes continue to occur Hemi needs to keep the investor well informed. This in turn will keep the balance of investors as a long term holders, if information of current developments and successes are not shared then the chance of the investor going else where increases.
And from what I observed in Texas last week there are many other emerging O&G companies, eager to get these investors, to choose from that are also communicating good info to the public and its shareholders.
Hemi has work hard to develop its business strategy and model and Hemi has work hard to develop the current loyal shareholders......going forward I have not doubt in Hemi's ability to succeed from a business perspective, I just hope that the communication and updates continue as a trademark that Hemi has established to date......
There's an old saying......Investors want to know...and in this O&G market an investors mood and decision can change like the tide......about every 6 HRS!!!!!!!!!!
Kels