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REWARD FOR LOST EDVA
If found please post his latest WDDD story on his blog ASAP!
No fear no worries just higher and higher going into Markman.
News will send this straight to new highs, and news is way past due!
WDDD
Perfect storm of patent plays!
1) Solid Case with continuing patent strengthening!
2) Tier 1 Representation by Susman Godfrey & Super Star Max Tribble!
3) Huge $15 Billion rapidly growing 15%-20% a year industry!
4) Ultra low $40 Million cap with little if any chance of big dilution!
Someone find me a better chance of a 10 bagger in 12-18 months!
Hear EDVA is doubling his position between now and the hearing.
I hope its just like Vringo except this time just sell that super spike into the $5's. Trade all those 40%-70% daily swings.
That would be wonderful wouldn't it?
Any news will easily send it back into the 50's. she's ready to roll!
Be nice to take out that 50K at .49 today.
Couldn't pass it up.
Nice day so far.
Also does how many claims they have matter? Surely the average Markman hearing doesn't have 55 claims to go through.
Should be no more than 2 days.
But hopefully there will not be any days and both sides will announce a new settlement/license deal a few days prior to hearing.
Or even better a complete bidding war for Worlds is lunched between Activision, Microsoft and Google.
A guy can dream can't he?
I think EDVA is planning to be there for the duration.
From my point of view it would be nice to have both of your opinions. EDVA has so much skin in this game it may lead to rose colored glasses effect. Your correct no electronic devices allowed in the hearing.
EDVA will be there also:
Activision Blizzard, Inc., Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. and Activision Publishing, Inc.
Case Number: 1:2012cv10576
Filed: March 30, 2012
Court: Massachusetts District Court
Office: Boston Office
County: Norfolk
John Joseph Moakley U.S. Courthouse
1 Courthouse Way, Suite 2300
Boston, Massachusetts 02210
617-748-9152
No new news, no updates, hardly a mention in SA articles, Vringo sucking the air out of the room, just nothing much to talk about.
I think most of the core 30 are just waiting for something to talk about.
I will not be posting much the next week or so as I am headed for the beach. Post Memorial Day things should heat up significantly.
Come on WDDD! 31 trading days to go till Markman! Possible pre-Markman settlement??? When will damage estimates leak out??? The longer the rally holds off the more violent it will become. 2 days late to the party and you might have to get on 55th street.
EDVA news due any day now!
Vringo should be decided prior to hearing date. 4-5 strong cards to be played in a short amount of time.
Not much going on but no need to worry. Gives longs late to the dance a chance to get in at a good price.
Looks like Vringo should be decided before World's Markman so that is good news.
EDVA will shake things up soon enough. It won't take much to get this into the 60's.
In my guesstimate for damages I did not increase future revenue estimates for years 2013-2018.
Maybe we need to shift these up dramatically??
MMO games are now combining with TV series. http://airlockalpha.com/node/9659/defiance-sets-up-first-crossover-between-tv-game.html
Good Morning WDDD!
32 trading days left!
EDVA will get the Markman party started this week!
Can't wait to see his damage estimates!
Core 30 on the way to 60th street next 10 days!
News well Worlds mentioned but author botches all the details. Anyway PatentPlays has a comment under comments.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1430611-hudson-bay-s-inflection-point-trading-system?source=kizur
Trying to figure out if watching Worlds is more or less exciting than watching mold grow?
Seems to be neck and neck today.
Our day will be soon.
Putting a small buy order in since people are giving away their shares.
Nice looks like a 2 for from EDVA? 1 article on claim construction and 1 on damage estimates!
Double whammy may send this back into the 50's.
EDVA damage estimates very soon!
How will they differ from my guesstimate?
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
Modified from Coolerhead's suggestions.
From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf
Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B
Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B
So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.
Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B
Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years
RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M
RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M
Going back to 2006 (Due to limit of previous 6 years) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M
Using same as 2012 going forward 6 (Kidrin stated 7 years left on patents back in 2012) additional years to 2018 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2018
2% $142.8M
3% $214.2M
4% $285.6M
Adding all years from 2006 - 2018 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $286M
3% $429M
4% $572M
If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $858M
3% $1.29B
4% $1.72B
Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for all MMORPG ATVI Rev I am using a safe # of 80%. 62% of 2011 Revenue was WOW + COD + Diablo 3 (Diablo 3 went to 5 players paying against each other which isn't the same as WOW or COD, but should fit into our patents IMO).
RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.27B
3% $1.91B
4% $2.54B
Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.08B
3% $4.62B
4% $6.16B
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash
Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.
CB,
Great find, this is a great example of what the patents do and why they are important to the MMO game market.
This info along with the excellence of Susman Godfrey and superstar Max Tribble shows that Worlds is waaaaaaaaaaay underpriced. Likely hood of a positive Markman is high and going higher each day. No wonder Max was so eager to take this case.
33 fun trading days to go!
Core 30 going to be richly rewarded!
My guess is he is waiting for the final run to begin before dumping gasoline on the fire. Hopefully that means in the next 10 days
CB,
Can't wait to see the video. No doubts in my mind that Worlds is a PE & no doubts that ATVI will have to pay Worlds.
Pre-Markman run still to come. OTIV just had Markman this week. Not nearly as much reward as Worlds has on the line, and it ran 20% in the last 5 days prior to the hearing. This is about half the % move I think Worlds will have in the last 10-15 days since Worlds has a + $1Billion payday on the line.
My guess is we get into the 60's by the end of May and after a few days of basing we set up for the final push.
Did anyone see that Patent Plays is floating the Vringo buyout or partnership possibility with Worlds? Could be his next story on SA???
LOL right my point was he would have got in at that point when it hit his .38-.40 level.
Regardless little to discuss here until we get some news to dissect. Taking an early long weekend so everyone have a great weekend and hopefully we get that news next week.
WDDD is on cruise control and the speed limit is going up to 55 next week and next month we hit the 70 MPH interstate.
My guess is lots of Vringo longs, including myself, sell any significant pop or capitulate and sell if no pop after JJ.
Worlds will get some of that money if either scenario happens. Hopefully JJ won't wait till 6-27 to get off his butt and make a decision.
Not only that but flyers nailed the last pull back 38-40 (hit .385) & he called it well before it happened. So if he was going to get in it would have been last week.
He obviously has great interest in IP plays and has stated he is writing a story about these type of plays. Hopefully he will put in his story that he thinks Worlds will run into Markman.
Yeah Vringo has been my pit of hell. I think lots of money will come out once it is clear no real end game for 12-15 months. Lots of players holding still for JJ's final ruling.
If you look at the focused articles on Worlds in Seeking Alpha there were a few in Jan - Feb a couple in March, but nothing but a few mentions since EDVA's April 19th article.
News brings in new buyers and we have been in a news black hole for 3 weeks now.
EDVA will certainly have one in the next few weeks & Patent Plays will I'm sure write one in the next 2-3 weeks.
Vringo money is just a few weeks away also.
Lots of catalysts over the next 34 trading sessions!
Nice to see a green day in a sea of red on my screen.
Flyers,
I think of you as a straight shooter and look forward to your article.
You are right to post that Worlds investors should be cautious. However I know you would agree from now till Markman there is very little chance of devastating news and PPS should rise into the hearing. As bullish as I am on Worlds I would hope no one bets the kitchen sink on the Markman hearing outcome. Right now the risk to reward is very favorable, however WDDD @ $1 PPS does not offer the same risk reward ratio. This is why, as you would agree, its important to get in before the final Markman run and only hold whatever your willing to lose through.
I plan on holding a very substantial +100K position through Markman. This doesn't mean that I will not sell some of my current holdings into the final days (probably not sell any until 6-28 or after) of the run to prevent a complete wipeout.
I have investigated Worlds for 6 + months and I am continuing to add to my position at current levels.
GLTA
Flyers good examples of the 3.5% that go this route. Statistics do not lie. 96.5% of these never see a court room for trial. Am I wrong?
Flyers,
How's your article going?
My guess is 8-8-13 we get positive Markman ruling and a few days later word of settlement discussions.
Big pop will surely hit when more damage estimates are posted or someone respected puts an article out on how likely Worlds will succeed in this suit.
One big difference. Vringo had a market cap of several hundred million when their damages were estimated to possibly be in the billions.
Worlds is still less than $40M!
Activision reported strong earnings last night, but WOW subscribers dropped. Their total revenue went from $1.17B to $1.32B for last Q.
The drop in subscribers in WOW is why the PPS is down, but that Revenue will be made up in new subscribers in COD and Starcraft.
When we reach a final settlement with ATVI it will be for all MMO games not just WOW and COD.
Someone may try to feed you a line about WOW dropping, but its clear to me the total MMORPG pie is growing rapidly still.
Welcome new longs!
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
Modified from Coolerhead's suggestions.
From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf
Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B
Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B
So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.
Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B
Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years
RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M
RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M
Going back to 2006 (Due to limit of previous 6 years) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M
Using same as 2012 going forward 6 (Kidrin stated 7 years left on patents back in 2012) additional years to 2018 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2018
2% $142.8M
3% $214.2M
4% $285.6M
Adding all years from 2006 - 2018 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $286M
3% $429M
4% $572M
If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $858M
3% $1.29B
4% $1.72B
Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for all MMORPG ATVI Rev I am using a safe # of 80%. 62% of 2011 Revenue was WOW + COD + Diablo 3 (Diablo 3 went to 5 players paying against each other which isn't the same as WOW or COD, but should fit into our patents IMO).
RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.27B
3% $1.91B
4% $2.54B
Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.08B
3% $4.62B
4% $6.16B
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash
Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.
Plus once Markman is past there will be a dozen other suits filed and since the stock is above $2 Kidrin will issue the remaining 17M shares and have enough money to get the best deal possible from the attorney fee side from the additional suits and the quick settlements will fund future suits into social??? Lots of stuff going on from post positive Markman on. Huge divs paid and royalty fees paid for 7 years!