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You must have had your blade set to low and cut off more than you needed to? LOL
Anyway someone sold off today and created a nice buying opportunity for some lucky buyers.
Things will be better tomorrow.
MikeHD
Since Worlds wouldn't disclose their specific arguments to the public before the Markman couldn't we assume that Worlds agrees with EDVA analysis? Can it be simple to put 1 & 1 together and get 2?
If Kidrin and Worlds disagreed with EDVA why post it in a news release?
The link at the bottom works fine.
Very cool how EDVA's Markman analysis made this news release.
Are you friends with Boy Wonder?
Agreed that if we get the right kind of wild card played, such as settlement prior to Markman or buyout offer we could see multiple bagger in the next 30 days. Rewards are huge and risks are small at this point.
Not missing anything a Markman victory puts a series of events in motion that will ultimately end with the stock between $7-$10 PPS.
This process will take 24-36 months.
However within 2 days of a Markman victory, or the next 60-90 days, the PPS will be $1.75-$2.
A few have asked if I really think Worlds will get my estimates I have posted several times:
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash
The whole point to the estimates I ran was not to figure out how much Worlds will get for the monetization of their patents. The purpose was to find out how big the pool of money could ultimately become. There are several other patent plays out there right now and only a couple could possibly see the kind of money Worlds could see. I would consider it a very successful outcome if we achieved even half if the totals I have estimated. Also I didn't jump to 5%-7% royalties because the odds they get that high are pretty low so even though my final numbers are huge they are still in the normal ranges for patent litigation.
I would not be in Worlds as big as I am if the total possible amount they could get was in the hundreds of millions. Because it is in the billions is why I am in this is such a big way.
Right now you are risking 46¢ to get a reward that could easily reach +$10 and I would be shocked if it did not reach +$7 once Markman is successful. Once the Markman victory is announced the PPS will be 3-4 times higher than today which is why its important to have a position early in the game.
Luckily for us we have potential of getting tons of settlements that could easily add up into the billions.
We could easily get a few in the hundreds of millions $200M-$400M and several in the $40M-80M range.
This can easily add up into the billions without needing that one huge score.
That's fine let me know how that works out I will be gone.
It's worth what its worth. If they are able to monetize their patents to the tune of $250M the company is worth little more than $250M. If there is 10M shares that's $25/sh. If there is 100M shares its $2.50/sh.
It's a simple math equation.
The 800 pound gorilla is the thoughts of meaningless dilution which destroys penny stocks. This is not the case here as it is just a binary event stock at this point.
Again this is all good conversation but entirely meaningless until post Markman decision. Giving the company these options will either help my investment post Markman or be meaningless to me because I will be out.
Blue Skies,
The whole point is do you want to give management all the tools they might need for whatever circumstances might happen? The thought of a R/S at first gives me pause due to all the BS that could happen once we start down that road. However its not the case here, Worlds is coming to a make or break binary event in 4 weeks and a R/S will not do anything to change what might happen with that ruling.
If WDDD has a successful Markman it won't matter to me if they want to get the PPS share to +$5 quickly by doing a 1 for 2 split. I will be up tons at that point and our story will have the legs it needs to make everyone some serious cash.
Your worries about super dilution and 1-20 splits only come into play after an unsuccessful Markman. If that is the case I will be long gone so it means nothing to me.
Your creating a mountain out of nothing. Refocus on what is important and that is the 6-27 hearing.
Worlds PPS time line:
6-27 Markman hearing $1
8-8 Markman ruling $2
9-20 additional suits announced $3
4-1-14 settlement reached with ATVI $5-$7.50
8-1-14 settlements reached by several other infringers $7.50-$10
EDVA damage estimates very soon!
How will they differ from my guesstimate?
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
Modified from Coolerhead's suggestions.
From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf
Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B
Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B
So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.
Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B
Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years
RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M
RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M
Going back to 2006 (Due to limit of previous 6 years) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M
Using same as 2012 going forward 6 (Kidrin stated 7 years left on patents back in 2012) additional years to 2018 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2018
2% $142.8M
3% $214.2M
4% $285.6M
Adding all years from 2006 - 2018 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $286M
3% $429M
4% $572M
If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $858M
3% $1.29B
4% $1.72B
Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for all MMORPG ATVI Rev I am using a safe # of 80%. 62% of 2011 Revenue was WOW + COD + Diablo 3 (Diablo 3 went to 5 players paying against each other which isn't the same as WOW or COD, but should fit into our patents IMO).
RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.27B
3% $1.91B
4% $2.54B
Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.08B
3% $4.62B
4% $6.16B
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash
Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.
Just want to clarify that I think there will be 2 40%-70% jumps. 1 from today till 6-27, PreMarkman, and 1 post positive Markman ruling. From current PPS of 50¢ those 2 jumps puts us anywhere from $1.25-$1.50. That is assuming no third catalyst of additional suits or settlement discussions, which if we get 1 or both of those $2 comes into play quickly.
Excitement will build everyday for the next 45-60 days as we await the outcome of the Markman hearing.
Good morning WDDD core 20!
The calendar is our best friend and as it switches to June this week it is signaling its go time for WDDD! Get in very soon or you will chase this up or just watch from the sidelines.
The largest moves happen in the last 5-10 days but that will come from a higher base.
Far to low. I would think if you get to a quick $150M Susman would listen.
Which is why a buyout is so likely. Why spend $150M when you can spend $250M in a buyout then use the patents to get your $250M back?
Whatever happens Worlds will not take a $50M unless they are far down the road and its their only option.
Hello?
About time others start picking this up. If Worlds gets $250M from Activision, which is a very low amount in my opinion it could be 3-5 times that much, Worlds will get Billions from the entire industry.
Kidrin thinks social sites also violate WDDD's patents. This could be another Billion beyond the MMO industry.
3 years from now its entirely possible WDDD will be @ $20 PPS.
It all hinges on 6-27. We have at least 2 court reporters who will be @ the Markman hearing to give us no BS feedback. EDVA & Pipe will lay out the play by play for all of us. As soon as the masses figure out how sweet a deal Worlds has the sky is the limit. Core 20 gonna make out like bandits.
Bottom line the price will be higher by July 1st so any conversion will be at or above the stated prices. The "most likely" case scenario should end up with 83M shares. Which is what everyone is figuring on anyway.
Most longs hope they dilute to the full 100M shares because with a Markman victory they will need that $25M-$35M to pursue the rest of the long list of infringers. The extra cash combined with a Susman victory will result in more favorable terms on future suits.
I am clocking out till Tuesday enjoy the long weekend!
Who cares people make mistakes everyday.
EDVA damage estimates very soon!
How will they differ from my guesstimate?
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
Modified from Coolerhead's suggestions.
From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf
Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B
Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B
So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.
Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B
Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years
RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M
RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M
Going back to 2006 (Due to limit of previous 6 years) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M
Using same as 2012 going forward 6 (Kidrin stated 7 years left on patents back in 2012) additional years to 2018 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2018
2% $142.8M
3% $214.2M
4% $285.6M
Adding all years from 2006 - 2018 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $286M
3% $429M
4% $572M
If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $858M
3% $1.29B
4% $1.72B
Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for all MMORPG ATVI Rev I am using a safe # of 80%. 62% of 2011 Revenue was WOW + COD + Diablo 3 (Diablo 3 went to 5 players paying against each other which isn't the same as WOW or COD, but should fit into our patents IMO).
RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.27B
3% $1.91B
4% $2.54B
Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.08B
3% $4.62B
4% $6.16B
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash
Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.
Are we going to discuss the meaning of "looming" today?
LOL
Good Morning WDDD Core 20!
EDVA giving us countless hours of research for free today. This would normally cost thousands from a traditional brokerage. Make sure to thank him when you can.
Absolutely I am glad he is sharing. Just seems like it is a week late.
I'll take it either way!
About time
This was all covered in great detail. We need a sticky that fully explains all the relevant details in chronological order.
He is late by my calendar. Makes me wonder if he is just waiting to time the next breakout and try to make it a bigger move?
Pipedream, normally settlements can be for 1%-3% of revenue (not profit but top line full revenue), and since Worlds is going for willfulness it could be triple that amount. During the pre-Markman phase both sides will know who has the stronger hand, although the loser even though he knows he's not got the stronger hand will bluff as much as possible into a more favorable deal. So even if Worlds has all the cards Activision may only offer a 2% running royalty initially. If Worlds thinks Activision has all the cards they might jump on 1%. Bottom line is even if Worlds is only able to get a 1% offer from ATVI the stock is still a 3-4 bagger from here. 1% from half the entire MMO game industry is $60-$70 million per year even from just half of that industry. Also they would get the previous 6-8 years which 1% of that is several hundred million. If Worlds is holding a strong hand no reason not to think it will be a 10-20 bagger from todays price.
I would like a quick and fast buyout of Worlds for $250M or about $3 per share but if not I will hold on to the lions portion of my holdings for the hearing outcome to see those cards close up.
Flyers,
How's your article coming?
Let us know when you post it.
Also is your Markman price target still .70-.90?
The focus will be squarely on WDDD very soon. Still time to get in but the door is closing. I am hopeful that many who frequent this board won't miss the first big jump but the facts are many who aren't in yet will miss the first big move.
How high will this go the day after a Markman victory and realization that Worlds will get billions?
My guess is it will be hard to buy in under $2 PPS once that happens.
Also another possibility is buyout by Activision pre-Markman. If they know they are toast a preemptive buyout is cheapest scenario. Whatever the costs are for the buyout ATVI can easily recoup from the other 20-30 infringers.
Unless Microsoft, Google or one if the other MMO heavy weights beat Activision and buy WDDD out before they can.
Why risk missing the huge wild card that could be played?? Markman runners may miss out on that if its prior to the final run.
The runway is clear for takeoff!
EDVA's locked and loaded!
Time to load up or watch from the sidelines!
It's not uncommon that these things settle prior to Markman. Or even a possible buy out of Worlds by Activision. If ATVI thinks they will lose Markman badly they may want to buy Worlds out for a few hundred million rather than pay out several hundred billion after a trial.
People will read that article and make the mistake that the total possible recovery is $700M.
That is what he is estimating Activisions portion of the damages will be. This is only a portion of the $65 Billion MMORPG industry!
Yeah $700 million damages and its better just to buy them outright.
WDDD should be minimum $100M going into Markman.
Anything less than .50 PPS is almost insane.
$1 PPS is still a strong buy and potential 4-5 bagger in 12 months.
People are giving away future profits by selling under $1.
WDDD portion of the article:
Activision Blizzard vs Worlds Inc.
In less than 30 business days Activision Blizzard's courtroom drama may become more popular than their multibillion dollar Call of Duty gaming franchise. This $5 billion dollar a year software giant is on a legal collision course with small unknown Worlds, Inc. (WDDD.OB). What's the fight about? Worlds contend that Activision has been using their patents in three-dimensional graphical multi-user interactive virtual world systems, also known as Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPG) for years without a license and with knowledge. World's is a PE (practicing entity) and Activision stands to lose big as Worlds comes locked and loaded with 8 key patents in its arsenal. A loss for Activision could spark an avalanche of royalty payments to Worlds, affecting all of the players that make up the $65 billion dollar MMORPG industry. The Markman Hearing, to establish the claim construction, begins June 27, 2013. Activision's exposure here could exceed $700 million, as past willful infringement seems a clearer road than the Vringo vs. Google case. Coincidentally, Activision recently reported a cancellation to its plans to repurchase shares held by its parent Vivendi. The Worlds case is one of the few cases, in my opinion, where the exposure is such that it makes sense to purchase the Plaintiff. Activision does not possess the resources of Google, and the decision to purchase Worlds may prevail over the potential loss risk. Regardless investors could be well rewarded for proper due diligence in this case.
News from Patent Plays http://seekingalpha.com/article/1440761
Sounds like he is saying its major news and he wants to make sure they have it perfect. The message basically states they have proof of something, which is not bad, not good but should be absolutely great news for Worlds investors!
I guess we will just have to wait a few more days???
Sounds like he is saying its major news and he wants to make sure they have it perfect. The message basically states they have proof of something, which is not bad, not good but should be absolutely great news for Worlds investors!
I guess we will just have to wait a few more days???