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Easy way to distinguish between legitimate IP litigation and frivolous.
If Susman Godfrey represents your company you are legit.
Lets move on from this nonsense.
Yeah anyone selling because of Washington hasn't a clue about WDDD, but he was right Patent plays are down across the board today.
The sellers have created a buying opportunity for us.
Boggles my mind, my guess is the pumpers who blew up Vringo & VHC are waiting for the run to begin before pumping again. Even at .40 its still a double for most who were in +90 days ago. Joe's article will help but we need new blood from somewhere to get going.
Regardless it will run but into the .60's seems like a stretch at this point. Luckily for longs we have the dream team in our corner for the actual important part on 6-27.
Knew those under .20 shares wouldn't last long. Next stop .30 for a breather in 4-5 days??
Yeah I would like to see someone come in with a logical argument against Worlds. But when they come in spouting nonsense it upsets me.
I will take my advice from Max Tribble and Susman Godfrey.
The top experts in the field who have 20 calls a day asking for representation in this area spent 24 months now on this and they don't lose.
You are on ignore now since you offer no value.
GL
The seller is gone today. Buyers are waiting around to see if he shows back up. The first ones to understand he is finished selling will get the few shares available under .20.
You obviously have no idea about Worlds patents and honestly you are embarrassing yourself now.
Best to leave this to the people who understand simple concepts.
Celts, CB glad to be aboard.
Nice day yesterday the selling looked to have stopped once that large block went through. A test of .20 today in the works?
I'll be cashed out and waaaaayyyyyyy down the road before Washington does anything of substance.
Because they have stolen all the tech needed to create truly awesome games. Even if they are forced to pay for all the tech they have stolen they will still make huge money by the buckets.
Also any huge damages paid to Worlds will be a 1 time event, the continuing royalty will hurt profit but only by a modest amount for such a huge company.
Make no mistake Activision's huge growth is what confirms Worlds huge potential. If ATVI was a loser WDDD wouldn't be nearly as exciting.
It won't come to a game 7 against ATVI. WDDD sweeps them in 4!
Yeah amazing good deal for those who took advantage.
Hard to say why it's dropping but I am certain you will look back in 2-3 weeks and think wow I could have gotten in around .40.
Opened a small position @ .15.
Selling should be over soon, but how soon?
That will be a great day!
EDVA damage estimates very soon!
How will they differ from my guesstimate?
ATVI Revenue Breakdown Estimate for Damages from ATVI suit
Modified from Coolerhead's suggestions.
From this Investor Summery Sheet posted on ATVI website:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ACTI/2435818763x0x634174/b65ae5ed-ce22-4042-a3be-8fdfd1e96547/01.10%20Q4%20Summary.pdf
Its easy to figure out North America Rev for 2010, 2011 & 2012.
Assuming US is 90% of NA Revenue we can estimate US Rev for those years.
Total US Revenue:
2010 - $2.17 B
2011 - $2.17 B
2012 - $2.2 B
Using this http://tippie.uiowa.edu/krause/spring2012/atvi_sp12.pdf
Activision research report for 2011 I can get the breakdown of % of Revenue for both COD and WOW. For 2011 it was 54% or $2.6 B of the total Revenue $4.76 B
So plugging WOW + COD Revenue is 54% into the 3 years above I get the revenue's Susman will be going after in our suit.
Total US COD + WOW Revenue:
2010 - $1.17 B
2011 - $1.17 B
2012 - $1.19 B
Now using 2%-4% for Running Royalty to determine past damages I get these for the 3 years
RR 2010 2011 2012
2% $23.4M $23.4M $23.8M
3% $35.1M $35.1M $35.7M
4% $46.8M $46.8M $47.6M
RR Total 2010 - 2012
2% $70.6M
3% $105.9M
4% $141.2M
Going back to 2006 (Due to limit of previous 6 years) I
reduce the Rev by 10% each year from the 2010 estimate above to get
RR 2006 2007 2008 2009
2% $15.4M $17.1M $19M $21.1M
3% $23.1M $25.7M $28.5M $31.6M
4% $30.8M $34.2M $38M $42.2M
Using same as 2012 going forward 6 (Kidrin stated 7 years left on patents back in 2012) additional years to 2018 I get
RR 5 years 2013-2018
2% $142.8M
3% $214.2M
4% $285.6M
Adding all years from 2006 - 2018 Total Rev
RR Total $
2% $286M
3% $429M
4% $572M
If we treble those we get triple the total for
RR Total Trebled
2% $858M
3% $1.29B
4% $1.72B
Remember this is only 54% of ATVI so total this out to the full Running totals for all MMORPG ATVI Rev I am using a safe # of 80%. 62% of 2011 Revenue was WOW + COD + Diablo 3 (Diablo 3 went to 5 players paying against each other which isn't the same as WOW or COD, but should fit into our patents IMO).
RR Total ATVI & Trebled
2% $1.27B
3% $1.91B
4% $2.54B
Now that is only 33% of the total Industry so assume only able to get 80% of the total
RR Total Industry
2% $3.08B
3% $4.62B
4% $6.16B
To get true final #'s you would have to back out taxes and legal fees but even if Worlds is only able to keep 40% of those totals it would give us a stock price (based on full 100M shares possible)
RR 40% of total going to WDDD
2% $1.23B or $12.30/sh cash
3% $1.85B or $18.50/sh cash
4% $2.46B or $24.60/sh cash
Just wanted to point out how HUGE the # can go with Worlds which is why it is completely underpriced going into such a massive event on 6-27-13.
Yeah most estimates have COD hitting $2B/yr in the US in the next 2-3 years.
2% of that is $100M / Year.
This is why all along I have stated Worlds is going for over $1B in damages and royalties. All the people who pop on to shoot me down have never provided any evidence if how my calculations are wrong.
Obviously this shows how huge COD is going to be, IMO 2 X WOW, and surely US Revenue will be beyond huge in the next 3-4 years. But why does it matter how much China does in regards to Worlds patents which are only good for US revenues? The only direct connection I can come up with is Activision will have lots of settlement money available when those talks begin.
Edva update!
WDDD: More Clues from China
Instead of just telling everyone what we know or may surmise about potential damages in the Worlds v. Activision case we would rather let people discover some of it themselves. If people can unearth this information for themselves they will have much more confidence in it than just hearing it from us or another source no matter how trusted (just the way the world works).
Please look into NetEase and see what you find out with respect to Activision. There is an example (actually examples) of something that we believe will be offered as evidence with respect to the Georgia Pacific Factors in any damages aspect of this case (which won’t come until a trial of course but Worlds is I’m sure armed with it now, as they must know it to effectuate the best settlement possible should they reach that stage after a solid Markman). In fact there is also strong evidence of a similarly adverse impact with respect to a company that lost its relationship with Activision. If you encounter the commentary of a Wedbush Securities analyst you will know that you are on the right track. This is not the only example we have. You should understand that we believe that the Worlds invention is a primary basis for interest in these games.
This is just the beginning. We will have a damages range to offer up in due time. By the time it’s out however, we think people will fully understand the building blocks or back story of our analysis. Look for more frequent updates until we reach the hearing.
-Edva
The Core 20 is down to a core 12-14. Seems like a few have given up and left for greener pastures. Surely deep pockets are loading up, Joe has stated just that is happening, and once the big buyers run out of cheap shares from sellers Worlds will run to new all time highs just in time for the Markman hearing. I hope the few that left us get very lucky and make a great trade because they will miss out on a truly great opportunity over the next 20-30 days.
Great someone please PM what the plot was!
US revenue portion of that is 1/3. That puts the possible total @ $1.5B!
Simple math.
Sure they might not get the billions, but any 5th grader can do the math and see how much is possible.
MMORPG revenue during the time frame these patents are good adds up to over $150 billion. Willfulness goes along way to get +3% royalties and damages.
Very simple math.
Billions!
Some people are saying the weakness in Worlds has been caused by a flood of these type of plays into the market lately. The bottom line is VHC, VRNG, WDDD or whichever patent play you are following will end up trading for whatever they can monetize from their patents.
If that's $10/share the PPS will move quickly in that direction. The winners in this field will be richly rewarded no matter how many winners there might be.
Everyone have a great and safe weekend.
Joe,
Are you including damage estimates in your article on Monday?
Core 20 might be a Core 15 by then but still think the odds of a huge payday are far better than a disappointment. Susman & Kidrin have laid a great foundation and put in all the work needed to make us all tons of money!
Stocks go from .43 - $7 all the time. You might want to learn something instead jumping on everyone. I you don't think Worlds is a good buy then move on and leave us be.
Maybe you don't understand speculative plays?
Facts are nothing anyone on this board does will matter at all once the Markman ruling comes out. It's either a huge multibagger or a nice tax write off.
My money is on the multibagger.
Hopefully its a few days prior to World's Markman on 6-27, if not surely prior to the Markman ruling which should be 4-8 weeks after hearing.
Joe's new SA on Monday will help drive some eyes to WDDD. That and the fact it will be June 3rd and only 3.5 weeks from Markman will be huge catalyst.
HOPEFULLY JOE WILL INCLUDE SOME FORM OF A DAMAGE ESTIMATE BREAKDOWN IN HIS ARTICLE!!!!
Potential to get Billions is just a few weeks away and we are still sub $40M cap?????
Consider the source??
You guys are funny no way this doesn't rally another 30% prior to Markman. Hundreds of millions on the line. Do the math and find away there isn't a ton of money on the line.
Realistically Worlds could reap much more than Vringo, yet its worth 6-7 times more than Worlds is.
He's probably an Activision long and just shet hisself when he realized Worlds is gonna get paid!
Bigger than Chuck Norris?
Long term once JJ makes final ruling that is when the flood will begin. The flood will be larger with a Vringo victory but win or lose money will flow into Worlds post JJ.
CB,
I am going to trade some of my VRNG if it hits $3.50 today. Hopefully buy back in 10% lower next week and put the profits into WDDD.
We could see a few sellers in WDDD today due to moving money into VRNG, its happened before, but just like yesterday any selling will quickly be taken out with buyers.
Anyone have anything special planned for 4 weeks from today?