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No alerts on my cell phone. I pray everyday that the world reverts back to the day when cell phones didn't exist. Since their invention, my clients (especially you evil West Coasters) think they can call me whenever they want (like 9pm+, Saturday etc).
Thanks. Don't know if it's possible to provide "insight" on this company given all the twists and turns it takes but I try.
Ren
PS I am seriously considering buying a Blackberry PDA. God help me...
True. But if the "uneffective ones" at the top are putting effective ones in place in the smaller companies, then doesn't that make the boys at the top effective by default? ;)
Time will tell.
No, I wouldn't say that. As long as these boys keep meeting deadlines and providing clarity, this should see a steady climb up from here. Right now we are trading under the assumption that there is truly 1.75B in O/S. If they prove that to not be the actual case as some here suspect, the stock should adjust upward to a more viable pps. For example, if "true O/S" comes back at 1B, then we are currently trading at about 2 times eps based on annualized 1Q2007 numbers (assuming no growth in profits for the rest of 2007). We should be trading at least around a PE of 10 if they provide full transparency.
I put it on watch. I like the volume considering the float. Tells me that if you time it right, you can take advantage of a quick swing...in the short term I can see it testing .0015. I might look for entry there if it does.
I think what he meant by his post was that it "padded the bottom line."
Great point. If they keep costs level while they grow, as a percentage of sales, they will actually be decreasing cost in the long term. That shows that they have very effective management in place in the PBLS family of companies...
Big spreads stagnate trading. Hope they let this move up some today...
Do you think they will ever show a break out of financials for each business division?
(Not that I'm not mostly satisfied with news today).
Yep. PBLSers are going to have to get focused on Profit growth over Revenue growth now. Last year, so much of the revenue was from thin-margined Pro-gas. I don't expect huge revenue growth year over year, but do expect to see 2-3x the profits and big additions to the asset column through acquisitions...
Yes. It does show that they are profitable. The problem has always been that the market wants to treat this pinky like an AMEX stock before it has even made it to an AMEX-like exchange.
The BIG news now would be some clarity on the O/S...it's coming "soon."
It's hard to say if it's flat Q2Q as PBLS doesn't provide the type of future guidance that the big boys do. I personally was expecting this type of return as it takes time to take an semi-profitable company, provide new capital for growth, and then see a return on that capital.
And it looks like the market is taking it as good news as we're up some 11%. Or...it could be the MM's sucking in amateurs during amateur hour...we'll know by noon.
It's on pace with 2006. Cash looks a bit tighter but is explained by the fact that they claim to be using cash for recent acquisitions. Account Receivables have seen significant growth, probably from pit sales. Current liabities seem to be paid down while there has been growth in the long term liabilty category. This would be in keeping with the greater usage of promissory note and preferred equity financing. Huge growth in the Retained Earnings category shows that these boys are still "buy" focused.
The BEST NEWS is that at least they met and surpassed the deadline of August 1st. Now all we need is a little light shed on the share structure...
IMOSO
Ren
Looking at ICBM, it has run up 300% since July and 500% since June and the last few days have shown high volume, with no upward movement, near a new recent high. I thought that was a sign of a reversal? Please help me see what you are seeing? And when you mean what the tape tells you, are you meaning watching how it trades on L2?
Sincerely not challenging, but just always trying to learn, which is why I come here...
Thanks,
Ren
PS I might get involved in ICBM simply because it's a beer stock with a ticker named after a missile. How can you beat that? ;)
If I remember correctly, they are based out of Charlotte, NC, but are all over the country. See this post to help in your DD...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=17225773&txt2find=cherokee
I posted this message, and then some other poster called Mike Mulshine who said I had guessed correctly. I then confirmed it with Ron. Only confirmation I have is their word on it.
Ren
Yes. By Mike Mulshine and Ron Blackburn.
Has anyone done any DD on Pratt that they would like to provide? He's one of the few I haven't chased down yet...
So basically, we take his word for it, and he takes their word for it...nice...
sigh.
I have no idea about August revenues. I expect that revenues and profits will lag some compared to what some will expect them to be, as PBLS is still in acquisition mode. Just an opinion. Nothing concrete to base that on.
SPZI up 35%+ today with almost the average volume 2 hours into the day...
Thanks again Mthead for the heads up on that one.
Welcome to the board gail...
You are either as crazy as we are or as brilliant as we are...time will tell.
Ren
Agreed. Low volume today but no signs of selling either.
Good point. I've never chased a runner before and so don't know if that's wise or not, espcially with me being a short, fat man. And SPZI is definitely running. I think that I will look for high volume and no price movement as a sign to sell the other half of my "free shares" and as for buying more, I will just sit tight. The realperson inside of me says ignore the emotion, look at the chart, golden crosses are one of the top false signals in the pinks etc. etc.
Ren
Okay, here's my dilemma...
I went to free shares of SPZI last week. I have a double in another stock that is losing momentum and the chart looks indecisive. I'm thinking of taking profits on that and moving it back into SPZI. I also have some powder from when I went to free shares with SPZI. However, I feel the SPZI board's sentiment screams "top of the chart" but the chart itself looks good (though somewhat over bought) and there is a Golden Cross coming probably this week.
So someone provide me some insight please. Sit tight, make the move, move into something else...
Ren
HA!
I thought for a second I was going to have to get you to OT- that or even delete it, but I "see" the pattern you are referring to...and hope it pans out.
Volume present in first few minutes or is this the 1M trade from EOD on Friday?
The trading yesterday makes me feel positive about a run next week...
Posted by: Renavatio
In reply to: None Date:7/20/2007 10:20:45 AM
Post #of 45726
Today will tell me whether or not they run it at all before August 1. If we close above the HOD on light volume, and especially if they paint the tape, we will be set up to run on rumor next week. Let's see if they can draw in the momo money...
MOSO
Ren
"but I suggest when doing DD on the company, folks should take a good look at the the insider's credentials."
The truth of this statement has saved me more money in the pinks than any other trading strategy. Couple that with a rule of thumb that 99.99%-100% of the time avoid pinks not based in the USA, and you can up your chances of avoiding scams even more.
And it was the management team that sells me on the success of this company. I will never understand the product but being a would-be self employed, white collar exec, I understand that true white collar boys like the mgmt at Spooz isn't going to waste time on something they think has a high probability of failure. Other wise, why take the risk when it's too easy to go else where and make money?
Just my opinion on an opinion.
Ren
Today will tell me whether or not they run it at all before August 1. If we close above the HOD on light volume, and especially if they paint the tape, we will be set up to run on rumor next week. Let's see if they can draw in the momo money...
MOSO
Ren
And why were those 4 states the riskiest? Because they saw the most hype from guru Real Estate investors who sucked in the sheep at conventions, trade shows and seminars (ie Learning Annex, LiveSouth, etc) and sold them tons of property they couldn't afford in mortgages they couldn't really pay at the top of the market.
Wow. Sounds frightingly similar to what happens in the here...I mean, in the pinks.
But then again, you also never get the truth from the hype driven media...housing starts are off, but primarily because greedy builders over built. Some states are showing year over year decline in sales, but that is compared to some of the greatest boom years in the RE market in 7 decades. And quietly, smart money (ie the non-sheeple) are accumulating on the dip and will sell into the next run.
And being in the mortgage business, I will certainly take the Fed's report over a mortgage company's report any day...funny thing...only 2 states showing price depreciation...and money for loans is 95% as easy to get and as only about .5% more expensive than it was in 2004 even for subprime.
RELEASE
May 31, 2007
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
(OFHEO)
NEWS RELEASE
CONTACT: Corinne Russell (202) 414-6921
Stefanie Mullin (202) 414-6376
U.S. HOUSE PRICE APPRECIATION RATE REMAINS SLOW, BUT POSITIVE
OFHEO House Price Index Shows Four-Quarter Declines in Two States
Percent Change in House Prices
Period Ended March 31, 2007
(Estimates use all-transactions HPI which includes purchase and refinance mortgages)
State *Rank 1-Yr Qtr. 5-Yr. Since 1980
Utah, (UT) 1 17.01 2.77 48.29 269.99
Idaho, (ID) 2 12.27 1.69 64.25 253.03
Montana, (MT) 3 11.68 2.49 62.17 282.77
Wyoming, (WY) 4 11.67 1.34 60.96 171.25
Washington, (WA) 5 11.63 1.88 67.17 398.38
New Mexico, (NM) 6 11.21 1.40 57.12 235.57
Oregon, (OR) 7 10.77 1.26 69.00 361.52
Mississippi, (MS) 8 9.51 1.88 32.86 156.21
Louisiana, (LA) 9 8.10 0.53 41.31 145.80
North Carolina, (NC) 10 7.99 1.69 32.16 237.23
Nebraska, (NE) 42 2.63 0.56 19.91 158.03
Minnesota, (MN) 43 2.53 0.76 40.25 276.42
Indiana, (IN) 44 2.49 0.28 16.42 159.42
Rhode Island, (RI) 45 1.50 0.12 75.91 512.49
California, (CA) 46 1.19 -0.84 98.80 541.25
New Hampshire, (NH) 47 1.07 0.27 49.17 406.42
Ohio, (OH) 48 0.84 0.20 15.75 173.05
Nevada, (NV) 49 0.60 -0.52 95.75 311.68
Massachusetts, (MA) 50 -0.56 -0.47 43.52 626.29
Michigan, (MI) 51 -0.66 -0.20 14.26 220.85
Play nice everyone. See you in the morning.
Ren
You guys and gals are killing me...notice the post time 6:33am. Most of you were still snuggled up to your teddy bears and I was slaving away at the office on paperwork.
But guess what...paperwork done. 3:33pm. Getting ready to head home. Because the guy lending the money can for the guy borrowing the money can't be too pushy if he wants said lending guy's money at all. Otherwise he no's he'll get a know. Or wait, maybe it's the other way around...;)
Just don't get that editor lady who post here on me. I'm a math guy working one writing book number 2. Book number 1 was apparently a major fllopp becuaasee ffolkks ccuolddn't raaedd itt deuu twooo diilsseexiaa adnn sstuppidiyttty onn beehaaff off thhee auuhttorr.
After 15 months of watching this stock, the only "right call" I made on timing was at .006. We typically see red after a PR. We did run up on news of financials in June. SOOOOOooooo...the question is whether there will be a run up this time on anticipation of coming news? IMO yes, but not as significant as June simply because the market treated June as a let down. And if expectations are wrong again for the financials (too high) and they don't meet those expectations with the numbers, it could be nasty. It could also be awesome if they shed light on the right subjects (float, preferred structure etc). So again, I see a run up on news to at least .0225ish (a lot of MOMO people got in at that point). First we need to break back through .0175. If we don't do that by next week, there will be no "run up on news."
Here's my disclaimer...what do I "no?"
SPZI News.
Spooz Completes SWARM Beta Testing and Reports Results
Thursday, July 19 2007 12:04 PM, EST Business Wire "US Press Releases "
CHICAGO --(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Spooz, Inc. (OTC: SPZI) is excited to announce the end of successful beta testing for SWARM and announce live trading results from Spooz Trading Technologies, Inc. , a wholly owned subsidiary of Spooz, Inc.
Under development since January 2007 , SWARM is a high-frequency, light-touch trading model developed by Spooz employees Jame' Groves, Erik Long and Dr. Peng He. Executed on Spooz's signature SpoozToolz(TM) software, SWARM is a combination of proprietary arbitrage models that exploit local and spatial price discovery. Its unique weighted components allow for "dynamic" co-integration balancing between multiple correlated markets. Because its success is based on the automation of quantitative strategies, SWARM's trading performance is not dependent on any specific market direction, but rather on precise micro-second calculations to identify opportunities as they arise.
"The live trading test resulted in surprisingly good numbers. Although it represented a small number of actual trades, when considered together with simulated trades conducted in June, we believe the results to be statistically significant enough to enter into the production phase," stated Jame' Groves, Director of Financial Engineering for Spooz. "It is time to build a proprietary trading division capable of becoming an important profit center for the company."
All trading occurred in a third party account. The beta test period began July 2, 2007 and continued through July 18, 2007 . For the beta period, only two spreads in the energy complex were traded. The following unaudited results were generated from account statements:
Trading Days: 12
Number of Trades: 244
Average Trades per Day: 20.3
Number of Winners: 234
Number of Losers: 5
Number of Scratches(a): 5
Winning Percentage: 95.9 %
Losing Percentage: 2.05 %
Scratch Percentage: 2.05%
Average Winning Trade: (b) $30
Average Losing Trade: (b) $16
(a) A scratch is a trade initiated and offset at the same price.
Transaction fees apply.
(b) Based upon one contract; excluding commissions and fees.
"While Spooz does not offer direct public participation in proprietary SWARM trading, it is our goal to teach traders how to utilize SpoozToolz to create sophisticated models based upon modern trading methodologies," said Paul Strickland, the Spooz CEO. "We believe that SpoozToolz will change the way smaller traders approach the market as they come armed with technology unavailable to them from any other source."
ABOUT SPOOZ
Spooz, Inc. , a publicly traded company based in Chicago , provides a suite of solutions designed to simplify financial trading for traders and hedgers alike. Its flagship product, SpoozToolz(TM) and its modules, add built-in trading capabilities to the popular Microsoft(R) Excel software application, combining a customizable interface, streaming quotes, charts, technical analysis, a comprehensive historical database, and electronic trade execution into a simple add-in that becomes part of the Excel tool bar. SWARM is an example of trading systems that can be created with SpoozToolz.
DISCLAIMER
The results disclosed may not be indicative of future results. The Company is not a registered broker/dealer or registered Commodity Trading Advisor and may not sell, offer to sell or offer to buy any security or derivative product. The information provided is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities. The material in this release is intended to be strictly informational and the Company disclaims any obligation to provide any updates. It is strongly recommended that any purchase or sale decision on any security be discussed with a Registered Investment Advisor or registered broker-dealer.
Source: Spooz, Inc.
SPZI News.
Spooz Completes SWARM Beta Testing and Reports Results
Thursday, July 19 2007 12:04 PM, EST Business Wire "US Press Releases "
CHICAGO --(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Spooz, Inc. (OTC: SPZI) is excited to announce the end of successful beta testing for SWARM and announce live trading results from Spooz Trading Technologies, Inc. , a wholly owned subsidiary of Spooz, Inc.
Under development since January 2007 , SWARM is a high-frequency, light-touch trading model developed by Spooz employees Jame' Groves, Erik Long and Dr. Peng He. Executed on Spooz's signature SpoozToolz(TM) software, SWARM is a combination of proprietary arbitrage models that exploit local and spatial price discovery. Its unique weighted components allow for "dynamic" co-integration balancing between multiple correlated markets. Because its success is based on the automation of quantitative strategies, SWARM's trading performance is not dependent on any specific market direction, but rather on precise micro-second calculations to identify opportunities as they arise.
"The live trading test resulted in surprisingly good numbers. Although it represented a small number of actual trades, when considered together with simulated trades conducted in June, we believe the results to be statistically significant enough to enter into the production phase," stated Jame' Groves, Director of Financial Engineering for Spooz. "It is time to build a proprietary trading division capable of becoming an important profit center for the company."
All trading occurred in a third party account. The beta test period began July 2, 2007 and continued through July 18, 2007 . For the beta period, only two spreads in the energy complex were traded. The following unaudited results were generated from account statements:
Trading Days: 12
Number of Trades: 244
Average Trades per Day: 20.3
Number of Winners: 234
Number of Losers: 5
Number of Scratches(a): 5
Winning Percentage: 95.9 %
Losing Percentage: 2.05 %
Scratch Percentage: 2.05%
Average Winning Trade: (b) $30
Average Losing Trade: (b) $16
(a) A scratch is a trade initiated and offset at the same price.
Transaction fees apply.
(b) Based upon one contract; excluding commissions and fees.
"While Spooz does not offer direct public participation in proprietary SWARM trading, it is our goal to teach traders how to utilize SpoozToolz to create sophisticated models based upon modern trading methodologies," said Paul Strickland, the Spooz CEO. "We believe that SpoozToolz will change the way smaller traders approach the market as they come armed with technology unavailable to them from any other source."
ABOUT SPOOZ
Spooz, Inc. , a publicly traded company based in Chicago , provides a suite of solutions designed to simplify financial trading for traders and hedgers alike. Its flagship product, SpoozToolz(TM) and its modules, add built-in trading capabilities to the popular Microsoft(R) Excel software application, combining a customizable interface, streaming quotes, charts, technical analysis, a comprehensive historical database, and electronic trade execution into a simple add-in that becomes part of the Excel tool bar. SWARM is an example of trading systems that can be created with SpoozToolz.
DISCLAIMER
The results disclosed may not be indicative of future results. The Company is not a registered broker/dealer or registered Commodity Trading Advisor and may not sell, offer to sell or offer to buy any security or derivative product. The information provided is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities. The material in this release is intended to be strictly informational and the Company disclaims any obligation to provide any updates. It is strongly recommended that any purchase or sale decision on any security be discussed with a Registered Investment Advisor or registered broker-dealer.
Source: Spooz, Inc.
OT - Cutting
To quote "O Brother"...
"Sweet summer rain. Like God's own mercy..."
The best thing about rain when it's 96 is that for at least 17.24 minutes it doesn't feel quite like a sauna.
Nope...just too much time in this OFFICE! And man I hate paperwork...
It is going to hit 96 today. Hopefully it will rain so I don't have to go and cut the grass with is neck high on my weiner dogs in the back yard.
Tremendous volume again today!
PUMP!
AMAZING STOCK!
YEEEHAAAWWW!
sigh.
Hopefully an Irish bar...
Is that the Renter's Assistance Program Money for Go-zone areas? If so, then I'm sure you understand the program, but for the board...
What's going on in the Gulf Coast...basically real estate professionals can receive a 50% tax break via accelerated depreciation and now Uncle Sam will give you a non-recourse loan of $30k at closing if you as an investor a) have a house built b) put that house into a rental program for 5 years and c) maintain a reasonable rent (approx $1250 for a 3/2). And with a purchase price in the $150k range, these will cash flow on a Stated investor loan at 90%LTV. Buyers basically get:
a) About a $60K write off that they can carry back 5 years or forward 10
b) Positive Cash flow around $250 a month depending on credit
c) $30K check from Uncle Sam that doesn't have to be paid back
d) A purchase in one of the fastest growing markets in the Nation - MS is on pace to see about 17% appreciation this year in the midst of a flat to slightly negative housing market
Those four reasons led me to buy 2 properties that will be built later this year. Outside of the Pacific NW which is also seeing double digit growth, the Gulf Coast is the best real estate market in the country. It's booming because its the largest tax break for real estate investors in the history of our country. And now they give you cash to.
So again, if someone at HQ says they are having trouble financing or selling these homes in MS, they need to get some professionals in there to help them. and no it won't be me. I'm too busy as it is. Now if they let us do the front end financing, become a preferred lender and pay us 22% on the net sales price, well I might make the time...for cash.
Yes, having a bank could potentially help with the financing of the homes. However, (and please take this politely), whoever told you that "finding a lender for the homes in MS is tough" is a moron. 100%, absolutely NOT the case. I'm working with at least 8 national lenders for the homes we are selling in Gulfport-Biloxi right now. Lending always comes down to what and whom, not where...Owner Occupied/Investment home, Full doc/Stated doc, Loan to value/appraised value. The ONLY time a developer has trouble getting financing is when they "sell it wrong to begin with." If you promise your people 100% LTV and only 95% exist, that's a problem. If you tell them that they are getting 10% cash back at closing and the lender only allows 3%, that's a problem.
Sorry to sound like a no it all (which I'm afraid I can come off as sometimes), but working with developers to acquire/front end finance/entitle/land plan/market/pre-sell/back end finance is how I feed my family. And it's a ton of fun even if the developers a moron. They just need to listen to the folks that know what they are doing.