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No, I went to sleep!:) eom
I can't sleep. Where's Sherlocksy?
Closed short @ /es 3067.
Good night, all.
~d
Why isn't IB good any more? I am hearing that about every broker in town!
There is Ninja Trader and Tradestation too...
Still short. This is turning out better than I expected.~d eom
Please hedge tomorrow if it goes down further with some later dated puts. The longer intraday charts look awful and it is going down into July at some point.
BINGO!~d eom
I know and agree (basically), but that high volume bar on /es at 3094 from 3:30 pm today was only partially tested and looks so inviting...
...sigh...
I dunno', Fitzwell. SPY slightly OTM puts didn't pick up at the end of the day, in fact, they sold off (though not much). Could go either way and my mental stop on my /es short is at cost.
~d
You can sometimes tell from end of day options activity which way the big boys are leaning; today SPY ATM, and OTM puts a dollar away sold off and bias was slightly for the ATM/OTM calls.
Very slightly, though.
In fact, I just went short at /es 3103.75.~d eom
I am leaning heavily down for tomorrow morning, at the moment and ready to give up my Opex bull call in a heartbeat.
The most dangerous thing is to have a scenario in your head; it's worst thing you can do. But everyone likes to feel safe....
~d
Farooq, push heavily for .70 a contract. They'll say no and ask for a manager and keep pushing. I got that on a special pricing deal long ago, and I don't do the hundred or so contracts a day they lead you to believe you have to do to get that kind of deal.
I have a feeling lots of people are exiting and they might just give it to you.
I just pm'd you about Tastytrade.
~d
Sean, could be we hit your 307 first.~d eom
The 311.16 re-test finally happened for which I was waiting the whole day (I actually closed out due to theta loss before 12 pm and didn't average down out of boredom). It took place on much lower volume too. Actually the real volume re-test was at the 10:18 one minute price bar at 111.59, which is potentially the reason the SPY held at 11.49.
My current thinking is if we gap down tomorrow, it will be a gift from the gods to go long. Watching options volume carefully.
~d
If we are indeed rallying into OPex into a theoretical top of 319, 'they' have to real it in slowly and need two more days.
Mostly doing credit spreads today.
~d
June 19th expiration, sorry, my bad. Nothing to do with oil.~d eom
I should add that it is the five minute on breadth that is deeply oversold and moving. The 60 minute is overbought and looks terrible.
I posted on the SPY forum that the weekly MACD on breadth is the highest it's ever been. The next highest was on 2/19/20. The fast line is still pointing up, though and I am waiting for it to turn down, may take a while.
~d
Don Wolunchuk (da_chief of stock market timing fame) believes the opposite, that we are vulnerable till Opex and then should rally.
That is one guy I hate to fade.
In any case no matter what, from the next Hurst low - whatever it is - in early/mid July, we should see a nice summer rally into late August. I am pinning this past Monday as the June low I I posted about several times in May.
It was right translated (the peak of the cycle came very late before the low), which is bullish.
~d
I am still thinking up to 318.75 for Opex and then down to your target, Glen. My intraday breadth and $TICK charts are still in deeply oversold territory and moving up.
I currently believe this is a stealth bull move we are having today.
As you say sometimes, prob'ly wrong.
d~
I recently began using MA's more too, interesting.~d eom
Don't forget about the 319 ghost print previously printed a week or so ago...
~d
That is so cool! Thank you! They hid it this time on ToS.
Incidentally, ToS getting worse and worse since they announced they are merging with Schwab, even though it doesn't take place until December. So sad as it was one of the best boutique option houses ever.
Checking out IB as I type.
OT: Long one 1/3/2 uneven fly contract, 1065/1070/180, at a 1.67 credit.
Expires this week. May have to tinker with this one a bit.
~d
SPY gapped up, now looking for a down day, I agree.eom
LOL, Glen speaks and the market listens. 310.65 SPY hit intra-day.~d eom
~d
310 held on violation of intra day support mentioned in a previous post, which is what caused me to hold fast to my current/since Monday viewpoint.
~D
I think you're right but I still I think we gap up tomorrow morning and I still have a target of 318.75 for Opex, possibly a tad higher, or lower.
MACD on my weekly breadth indicator is the highest it has ever been, even higher than the last time, which was 2/19/20. I never checked the weekly before as I use it intra-day and I just did for kicks this afternoon, or maybe boredom. The fast line is still turning up and I'm waiting for it to turn down.
~D
I whittled down my chart settings to 1 tick and I still don't see it, Sean. Could it be some weird interaction between the chart borders and that particular print?
I'm a sucker for Hindenburg omens and ghost prints and I would call my broker to check but I can't find my phone, lol.
Glen, a weekly MACD with an 8/34/5 setting on breadth($ADSPD on ToS) is the highest I've ever seen it since 2/18. The fast line is still pointing up so we may have a little more up until Opex.
Which would be a great short for the Hurst July low.
I usually don't even check anything over an hour on this indicator and thought it interesting. Another interesting thing is that the indicator became more oversold than most times on 2/27, which was way too early to go long.
Went long at the bell.~d eom
Sean, I see no ghost print. Can you post the chart or a link?
Despite all almost all my charts in overbought mode, I am going to go out on a limb here and say I still think we gap up tomorrow. May be a good shorting opportunity if so.
Retest and violation, potential algo seek for 310, globex low, then lod.~d eom
SPY tested 312.18 on higher volume so will be back at one point or another.
~d
What does that mean, pin action? Tia.~d eom
At SPY 314.00 a few minutes ago, the 315 call was a little less expensive than the 3.13 put.~d
Edit: expiry ending tomorrow
MACD is an indicator that needs to be accompanied by other indicators, can give sell signals for a long time before follow through.~d
Only til Opex then trading range with down bias till middle of July, then up, up, up.
Get a grip on what?
~D
Gap up and s/t rally confirmed per last post.~d eom