waiting for the other foot to fall
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precious metals -
GLL (2x short gold) broke the resistance downtrend suggesting gold might downtrend. UGLD (3x long gold) broke support trendline as well but is still supported on its 50 hour average.
Gold miners IAG GG AUMN THM EGO and TC all held their trendlines.
DUST (3x short miners) did not break its trendline resistance.
NUGT (3x long miners) did not break its support.
Silver miners held their trendlines but silver has been less chartable then gold and the miners even less so.
ZSL (2x short silver) is chaotic. USLV (3x long silver) still has flat support at $10 but is chaotic.
PAL on support, holding.
PLG approaching (sideways) lower side of uptrend channel.
PGM (ETF) chaotic uptrend.
I am collecting slowly in silver (USLV, FSM), gold (NUGT, TC, considering THM and EGO), and platinum (PAL, stalking PLG).
I am also playing calls on NUGT and puts on DUST when they are clearly moving (nothing now.)
GEVO missed the sale premarket yesterday so I'll sit on $7K of high price stock till next good news. Ultimately it's a winner.
$GOL caught the knife early at $6.31 using hourly chart trend lines. Dropped as far as $6.09 and daily chart allows for $5.50, but top of channel is $9 on daily chart. I will hold to the 200 day average at $5.80 for the knife to bounce..
$NEPT since we were given a volume alert retraced to the 50 day then popper to a higher hig. Now retraced to higher low trendline and started a new pop. Target $2.80's to continue the higher highs trendline.
$SNFCA 200/50 cross as stock retraces to 200/50 averages in a staircase ascension. Should pop to $8.50 in a day or two and earnings are expected in the coming week or so that should be about as good as last quarter's.
Puts since the 23rd
Look out below (signs of the correction)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1388381-nyse-margin-debt-approaches-all-time-high?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0
But cash in hand is still pending the inevitable appeal?
Vrtx earnings inflated the pump and so did the SA mention today. It will collapse. Ash is also going over the cliff. Looks like nflx will too.
That said I did not intend to hold these more than a day or two.
And dont take 10% when the plan was 20
I bought 100 GOL but about 10 cents too early. Good airline. well run.
Look at ash puts... Tipping point tomorrow... Collapse in a week or less.
I bought the 85 puts ... More money at risk but higher delta. Paid $4.30.
I played it too early with same-week puts so I have to carry that loss but I am 2x already on the May 17s I replaced the earlier ones with. Yes, I see them going from $4.30 ($8.80 now) to near $20 before I get thinking it is bottom.
ASH is also a given. 100 PE and a history of forming bull islands on the daily chart. This island is near an end.
I wish I was as confident on NFLX - it is inevitably going down but "tick tock"
Thanks, read the transcript via seeking alpha e-mail alert. Compared to JBII this level of professionalism and honesty is staggering. I'll look to flip my $2.25 shares and my September calls into lower priced shares and December calls ;)
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=57384014
GEVO progress is good and it is all about starting the plant.
VRTX - fire (puts) at will:
Vertex's first quarter 2013 non-GAAP net income was $5.7 million, or $0.03 per diluted share. Vertex's non-GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2012 was $118.6 million, or $0.55 per diluted share.
Even forgetting GAAP they washed away $0.52 per quarter of non-GAAP EPS on falling revenues.
The decrease in the company's first quarter 2013 non-GAAP net income, compared to the first quarter of 2012, is primarily attributable to a decrease in total revenues, specifically decreased INCIVEK revenues due to fewer HCV patients initiating treatment.
Vertex's first quarter 2013 GAAP net loss was $(308.0) million, or $(1.43) per share. Vertex's GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2012 was $91.6 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, including $27.0 million in certain charges.
over the cliff:
Vertex's first quarter 2013 non-GAAP net income was $5.7 million, or $0.03 per diluted share. Vertex's non-GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2012 was $118.6 million, or $0.55 per diluted share.
Even forgetting GAAP they washed away $0.52 per quarter of non-GAAP EPS on falling revenues.
The decrease in the company's first quarter 2013 non-GAAP net income, compared to the first quarter of 2012, is primarily attributable to a decrease in total revenues, specifically decreased INCIVEK revenues due to fewer HCV patients initiating treatment.
Vertex's first quarter 2013 GAAP net loss was $(308.0) million, or $(1.43) per share. Vertex's GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2012 was $91.6 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, including $27.0 million in certain charges.
please be calling it UP, not down to your entry ;)
silver miners:
Avino Silver & Gold (ASM)
Endeavour Silver (EXK)
Great Panther Silver (GPL)
Hochschild Mining (HCHDF.PK)
Impact Silver (ISVLF.PK)
Silvercrest Mines (SVLC).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380871-silver-miners-respond-to-the-drop-in-silver-spot-price?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0
the shorter the better.
article on SPWR also mentions WFR and KYO (Kyocera is not pure solar though)
http://247wallst.com/2013/04/26/sunpower-the-hot-solar-energy-stock/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FRyNm+%2824%2F7+Wall+St.%29
at $50 for sure. Missed the downgrade.
I need to sell some things to have settled cash for puts Friday I guess...
STP, although it is slightly more dead than the other dying ones.
Now, the shorter list - profitable solar companies ;)
add JKS to the solars list and then read this before considering CSIQ anything but a trade (or a short)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1381101-a-final-dead-cat-bounce-before-the-big-crash-in-canadian-solar?source=intbrokers_regular
and this LDK analysis:
http://abdallafinancial.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/JTS_28032012_V01.pdf
my charts lied.
I want to play some puts on DUST but the IV is 122% and the premiums are too inflated.
true but FSLR will be hard pressed to break resistance at $50. It needs to consolidate back and forth to the 50 day average - maybe to the 200 day - sooner or later.
csiq, misread it.
There are a ton of others but those are in my iqcharts folder
grabbed 1K, target to break $1
LDK GTAT TSL YGE JASO FSLR RSOL CSIG HSOL SOL
put down the crack pipe.
market can go up as long as VRTX and ASH keep going down. OK, they are not the only two, just the ones I want to deal with today.
facebook or linked in :) (j/k)
in that article there is a plug at the end for Norstra. Caveat Emptor, it is an OTC picocap with a business plan and a wish.
$KOG and peers mentioned as likely takeover targets.
why would a sideways listing from NYSE to NASDAQ matter in any way? It's not like they uplisted from Pinks or OTCBB.
$ASH should break support and fill the gap soon.
$VRTX is going off a cliff unless they pull an earnings surprise.
$NFLX has too many lemmings but the endgame is inevitable
$OSTK is very overbought but if shorts are getting margined out I may not win my puts.
$ILMN I was winning before the PR today...
$RT the chart shows it always collapses after this kind of jump up but WTF... might eat this one.
considering GOL as a roller... solid uptrend with higher lows and higher highs. $6.45 is bottom of channel, target ~$7.50