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some of us have been here for years before the "call" quietly accumulating
A very real possibility...above 52 again early and moving up nicely. If the Q2 report is good or better, I think we move well above 60...maybe even push 70... in a very short time.
that all depends on what your goal is. I know several people that play the pre and post ex-div dips and spikes. If they get in low enough, and the spike up pre ex-div equates to a greater profit than the actual div, they sell out and wait for the next cycle. I have tried this on paper, but personally, I don't have the time or patience to do all that math required to determine the best value.
I'm sure they are playing with a lot more money than I am as well, so the "value" for them is much greater than it is to me.
I've been in this stock for quite a while and watch the pps go up and down...but that div of ~15% keeps me pretty happy. I figure if the div takes a cut, we will tank a bit, but once the dust settles, it's still better to be getting a ~10% div than 1% somewhere else.
People in the market are like a deer in headlights....they panic initially, very indecisive at times, and may make a panic run...but once things are back to "normal" they settle back in and see that great (newly adjusted ) div the Mreits are paying and they then become avid investors and drive the pps back to a stable value.
when looking for long term investments,one of the best value rules to apply and track...the rule of 72.
not a bad Monday...broke %52 for a while then pulled back. looking for mid to upper $52 range if not $53 by end of the week
nice finish for the week...lets see 55 by end of next week
broke $51....lookin good
we touched $50 briefly...hopefully we can push well into the $50's this week and establish a low side base above $50 going forward.
agreed...I think we see $50 this week then should be an easy push up to $55 or better before end of month
unfortunately it isn't going much of anywhere until the FED makes a decision on what will happen long term and gives an indication as to what will happen with the commons.
Right now I think they want to hose the commons and screw only the taxpayers that hold commons. Possibly present an out for the preferreds to some degree, but that will depend on how much the big money hedges and institutions can bend an ear and get something done to preserve shareholder values.
nice close today...lookin for that 50 spot tomorrow.
would be nice, but I don't think it will make it to 50 today. I have a feeling if we don't touch 50 tomorrow, we will have to wait til next week and then up close to a stable 50+ on the low side....would love to see 55+ before end of the month.
So if I understand this correctly, FnF are still paying a div, but only to the treasury on a variable basis for their holdings of the senior preferred stock. The "debt" is considered paid in full based on the treasury owning the senior preferred stock, which they have the option to redeem and convert to commons ( with congressional approval I believe) and then sell at any given time back into the market.
Not a bad payday for uncle sam.
I have an important question.
PLEASE provide a link or verifiable DD if anyone has a plausible answer.
Per this mornings release by freddie that they made a profit of
of 4.6 billion and will repay the treasury 7 billion.
In that press release it clearly stated that FnF are no longer paying a 10% dividend, but are required to pay all profit monies ABOVE 3 billion as repayment to the taxpayers.
Here is my question.
Each quarterly payment made going forward...does this money REDUCE the debt owed on a dollar for dollar basis.
Quote from press release
"Starting this year, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will cease paying 10 percent dividends that have returned $65 billion to the Treasury and will instead turn over any profits above a permitted capital reserve"
If the payments reduce the debt on a dollar for dollar basis, it is quite possible that FnF can become debt free within 5 years.
Link
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/freddie-mac-will-pay-treasury-7-billion-on-first-quarter-profit.html?cmpid=yhoo
nice finish above 48 today. we might get to that 49 - 50 mark this week
nice close at $47.50...now if we can make around a 50 cent gain each day for the rest of the week we will be lookin great and hopefully bust that 50 dollar barrier.
broke $48 this morning....maybe we have a new base to move up. I would love to see $50 by end of the week
nice move up this morning...maybe we can get close to 50 bucks by end of the week
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (AP) -- The former president of a mortgage document processing company has been sentenced to up to 20 years in prison on a racketeering charge in a Michigan case.
Lorraine Brown pleaded guilty in February. The attorney general's office says she was sentenced in Kent County on Thursday. Circuit Judge Mark Trusock ordered Brown to serve 40 months to 20 years.
The state says the 51-year-old Brown orchestrated a robo-signing scheme in which employees fraudulently signed another authorized person's name on mortgage documents to expedite foreclosures.
Brown pleaded guilty to a federal charge in Florida last year and reached a plea agreement on related state charges in Missouri.
Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette previously reached a $2.5 million civil settlement with the parent company of DocX.
http://news.yahoo.com/mortgage-processor-executive-gets-20-162938188.html
I'm an extremely patient investor. I may paper trade a stock for months before deciding to buy or dump it from my interests while I do some DD on it. I did gain an interest in ETF's for a couple months, but like you said...they are superficial and don't really present a value long term.
I agree...a lot of people really don't understand the differences and risks between a reit and Mreit. I first got into reits back in the mid 80's. didn't have a lot of knowledge about them, but had the pretext that it was pretty difficult to live and have a family if you didn't have a place to live...and real estate is pretty much a requirement for a home or condo or apartment.
I got into mreits in the mid 90's very slowly because I didn't fully understand the leveraging. Now that I have a much better understanding..( still not enough ) I do feel a lot more comfortable investing in them. Though as I said in an earlier post, I am patient and wait for the big dips to buy.
it is a risk/gamble that I have become comfortable with...I've been in the reits for many years and have never lost a cent.
Saying that I should also point out that my reit holdings are very long term and have been a bit bumpy in the last few years with a DCA on average of 15% below the current PPS. I look for the big dips for the most part and pick up shares when I think the market is a little spooked. I bought in to CIM when it tanked down to under 2 bucks ( got in at $2.03 )and am quite happy with that gamble today. Next earnings call I may need to reevaluate though as reits are certainly going to feel some pain in the next few quarters.
Don't remember if Blech was ever involved with this particular scam or not...but nice to see he is getting a vacation paid for on our nickel.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/david-blech-gets-four-years-for-manipulating-stock-prices.html?cmpid=yhoo
I bought another 500 shares at 30.70...hope it inches back up...lol
at least it recovered some of the AH loss form last night. I got blind sided by this...I was positive we would see good earnings for the next year at least, so I have been buying the crap outta this thing...lol.
oh man...what a BAD BAD after hours...the fins sucked big time
no doubt...it took me a few rounds to get a reasonable understanding of it...lol
the best part of the article
Conclusion:
Therefore, in regards to this detailed dividend sustainability analysis, I am confident AGNC will keep their $1.25 per share quarterly dividend. In regards to any possible dividend rate changes in the future, all the evidence points to a dividend increase as opposed to a dividend cut. AGNC has been very cautious in regards to choosing a quarterly dividend rate. I believe the Q1 2012 cut from $1.40 to $1.25 per share was precautionary in nature. From the three dividend sustainability calculations performed within this article, AGNC's $1.25 per share is easily covered by AGNC's operations. Furthermore, keeping this $1.25 per share dividend rate for the remaining 2013 quarters barely surpasses the minimum REIT requirement of distributing 90% of their 2012 annual REIT taxable income.
No doubt his "supporters" are going to say that...but knowing who some of his supporters are...doesn't give me a warm fuzzy at all.
I don't currently have an opinion of him as I do see a few things positive as well as a few things negative. So the opinion on Mel Watt is still open at this point for me.
My main concern is the issue of principle reduction. Guess who will pay the bill for that if the GSE's are forced to provide that kind of relief to distressed homeowners. In the short term, the GSE's revenue stream will take a pretty good hit, but I do have to counter that with the possibility that long term it could be a positive. Problem is...how long would, or could it take the GSE's to recover that initial lost revenue, and will they even be in existence at that future date. In the short term....I believe taxpayers and GSE's shareholders lose with principle reduction.
Now I will say I am all for helping those in real need with HAMP refi's and even forbearance modifications to their loans....if they qualify.
How do you see this as good news?
agreed...I would more than likely add as well. I've been in the reits for quite a few years and have seen the bumps along the way, but they have always paid me more ( piece of mind wise )than the risk of chasing pps appreciation in "blue chips" and other more speculative plays.
and of course IF there is a drop in divs...as you said, that creates a "new" entry point and with pps appreciation from that point as we all become accustomed to the new div basis, that allows for a nice adding basis for a lowered DCA over time.
I would much rather go from 15% down to 12% div payout than stress over chasing a 3% stock hoping for a run up to 5%
I don't think so. One would logically assume if the cost of money for AGNC and other reits goes up...the cost of money for borrowers will also increase at a presumably equitable value. That would allow for the reits to maintain their profit spread, or keep it extremely close to what it currently is.
Now, if the FED changes the rules and taxing methodology, we could be in for a bad pps fall. Then again...say AGNC drops the div down 10%....we still maintain one heck of a sweet div well above most others.
Judge questions fraud statute's use against Bank of America
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A Manhattan judge indicated Monday he was "troubled" by how the U.S. government applied a rarely used law in a suit against Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) over the sale of toxic mortgages to Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB).
The hearing before U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff marked a challenge of the U.S. Department of Justice's bid to bring fraud lawsuits against Wall Street banks under a powerful law enacted following the savings and loan scandals of the 1980s.
Rakoff held off on a ruling, saying he would issue a decision by May 13 on whether to dismiss the lawsuit, which blames Bank of America for more than $1 billion in losses incurred by Fannie and Freddie.
LINK
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/judge-questions-fraud-statutes-against-022729892.html
maybe alexander and rufus can bunk together in the near future...lol
FNMA ACTUAL SHARE COUNT
Fannie Mae stockholders’ equity (deficit):
Senior preferred stock, 1,000,000 shares issued and outstanding
(this is what the FED owns)
Preferred stock, 700,000,000 shares are authorized—555,374,922 shares issued and outstanding
Common stock, no par value, no maximum authorization—1,308,762,703 shares issued, 1,158,077,970 and 1,157,767,400 shares outstanding, respectively
I think a pullback tomorrow for some profit taking, and then next week we move up to $50 and higher.
very nice EOD close. I think we may move closer to that $50 mark before end of the month.
very very nice movement today. Hope we maintain a bottom above $47 going forward and move closer to $50 by end of the month.
been waiting for this nice dip....picked up another 400 at $31.40
very disappointing movement on the pps today. I thought it might hold 46 on the positive news, but we will be lucky to stay close to 45...maybe it will move back up after the gold rush exit subsides.
Hedge Funds Wagering on Fannie Reincarnation: Mortgages
Investors including hedge funds are buying the preferred stock of government-controlled mortgage firms Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac in a long-shot bet they will have a future as private companies.
Fannie Mae’s 8.25 percent of preferred shares have more than doubled this year to $4.31 on Friday after the company reported record earnings. Some investors see the odds rising the two loan guarantors may somehow return to private ownership without cutting out existing investors, according to Bose George, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods in New York. The securities have a par value of $25, meaning investors could recoup more than five times the current price.
link
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/hedge-funds-wagering-on-fannie-reincarnation-mortgages.html?cmpid=yhoo