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Can we sticky this?
Nah. Just tells me if they pass another HERA, it needs to be challenged before the Statute of Limitations expires.
It's unfortunate no one challenged it sooner. The damage is already done. Now it's too late and we'll have to settle for the cards we're dealt.
Tim Howard's first Amicus Brief didn't help us. In fact, I wouldn't expect this one or any of the other Briefs to help us.
The Judges aren't going to listen to outside parties. Their job is to interpret the law (HERA) as written.
I sense the Irrational Exuberance spiking while the price is falling. That tells me lower FNMA prices are almost assured.
It happens when they get Converted to Commons. That's the only time it happens unless the Company Calls them at Par.
Can you ask Judge Steel what his take on SCOTUS is and how the outcomes might affect FNMA?
It really depends on what SCOTUS decides to do. If they take the case at face value, there's little for Commons or JPS to rally on.
Backward Relief is the only way Commons and JPS soar. Otherwise, everyone intelligent realizes a SCOTUS ruling that doesn't eliminate the NWS leaves us in Court for another 2-3 years.
No bueno for people expecting a Super Nova
Possibly. Commons will be low-$1s or maybe sub-$1 by then. It would be a good buying opportunity as the bagholders will be trying to sell out and there will be plenty of supply on the Ask.
If JPS are scared, shouldn't Commons be terrified?
Odds are if SCOTUS rules, we're looking at another 2-3 years in Court just to figure out the APA claims.
If that's the case, then Commons are going to languish in the $1-2.20 range for the next few years and JPS will likely continue to trade in their range as well.
In other words, Sell the Pops because FNMA Always Drops
Yes, you're right. And that's certainly possible depending on how much additional money the Treasury wants to extract from the GSEs.
Have you spoken to any of the Board of Directors to confirm this occurred? If so, you should file a lawsuit. But we're already past the Statute of Limitations, so it will be fruitless.
Hell is coming to breakfast for the P fantasy I can almost assure u commons make out much better than Ps.
The settlement rumors got everyone worked up. After seeing the number of Commons they're offering for my Jr. Preferreds, it's no surprise everyone is here with FNMA to celebrate.
Too bad SCOTUS isn't reviewing the Accounting Fraud. Those lawsuits were already settled or dismissed.
It's just more FNMA noise, that's all.
SCOTUS will tell us who was right and who was wrong soon enough. That is, unless the Plaintiffs settle beforehand.
Most everything else is just FNMA Fantasy.
The Market agrees with your assessment and is pricing Commons accordingly.
Collateral for what? Warrants are worthless if Companies go under and can't pay the Treasury their DiviDivision.
That's the opposite of collateral.
Sounds like FNMA wishful thinking.
Excellent call on FNMA.
Have you reviewed Bove's latest downgrade and analysis?
1-hour to cover everything. The pressure is high. That will be a big day for FNMA.
If the Lawyers/Judges screw this up, it's Game Over for Commons
Removing that also makes capital raise harder since earnings will be lower.
So they don't want the entire Conservatorship overturned? And they're not challenging HERA or the Warrants?? Interesting!
Guido, TRCPA, and Trunkmonk should all file their own briefs now that they've learned the only thing SCOTUS can do is overturn the NWS.
File those briefs boys! We want to see you challenge the Warrants too
Nice! FNMA Facts stated in plain light for all of us Average Joes to see.
The BEST outcome for SCOTUS is just to end the NWS, nothing more.
Full filing here: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/154153/20200916135926128_19-422%20Brief%20of%20Patrick%20J.%20Collins%20et%20al..pdf
Wrong. Re-read the article. It's all Calabria.
After today's hearing, it's clear Warrants getting exercised. Another Common dream crushed today, the other being the retained earnings recapitalization.
Another "Conservatorship equals Administrative Bankruptcy" reference by Calabria.
Surprised Commons are still holding up. Calabria clearly views this as an Administrative Receivership.
He added that there is another piece of legislation in Judge Lambert's court about the contractual rights of the preferred shareholders, which he described as the "big elephant in the room."
6-24 months. It won't be done via retained earnings, as Calabria just mentioned
Sorry Commons. Your dreams were just crushed.
But today's words will be "old news" tomorrow according to TRCPA.
How so? Massive capital cushion means mucho dividends amigo.
Maybe Commons even see a $0.25 annual dividend with all that capital on their books.
It's coming amigos!!
“Fannie & Freddie are on the verge of insolvency” -- Mark Calabria.
Things sound dire. This massive capital raise needs to happen soon; otherwise, we may need to reconsider Receivership.
No bueno amigos!
Whichever one likes the most capital possible, that's Calabria. Smart man.
Commons should love him since he's going to make sure they never end up in the same position they did during the financial crisis.
Commons will likely end up very similar to Citi more so than AIG.
In other words, FNMA will be lucky to double over the next 5 years after the Reverse Split and massive dilution occurs.
Aka profiteering ... if not fair terms for commons
It's Legal. It would've been challenged if it wasn't.
12 years later, it still hasn't been challenged.
And waiting until after they're exercised is nonsensical. By then, Commons will only be worth 20.1% of what they were worth prior to the Warrants being exercised and the damage will already be done.
Someone call Fisher and ask him to challenge the Warrants also
new common shares are worth more if the juniors are converted first (due to $33B less liquidation and $2B less dividend preference in front of those new commons than with no conversion), and new pref shares are easier to sell if there aren't other prefs that would need dividends.
I don’t base my investments on FNMA Fantasy.
If there are multiple capital raises after all, the juniors will either be converted to commons prior to the first one or will have their dividends turned back on when the first one is complete, so the juniors win either way. And if the capital raises are big enough in aggregate size and/or stretch out too far then the juniors will most likely outperform the commons even if there is no conversion.
That'll be FNMA very soon. A Reverse Split is a gut-punch to Commons, but it's coming amigos!
Buy all of the Willy Wonka Golden Tickets you can get now. Only to realize you'll be able to buy even more for a lot cheaper after the Reverse Split occurs
Indeed. And $0 for Commons is still possible.