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I see absolutely zero reason for Tony to have been there this long if it's not related to a buyout or major deal involving a change of control. Just don't see it with his pedigree. Also, a new more fitting CEO shouldn't be that hard to find given this company's science and potential upside. Hopefully we hear soon.
This is my problem as well - where's the deal? We have proven that they are willing to pull the trigger on dilution, we have yet to prove their ability to make a deal (TL & crew). The best deal this company has made was w/NEO. That's done. If they could strike an agreement that's better than NEO then it would be nothing but chocolate and rainbows around here. I admit, eventually a deal of some kind will be made, strong or not, but how long do you wait and at what cost? Likewise, I've yet to see any strong evidence that AXAL is capable of bringing in the necessary upfront cash to shelve the dilution qualms near term. I hope this silence is worth the anguish...
Bourbon is on to something - go to where the current interest/money is at and make it happen.
Yep! Anyone here who doesn't comply with the LT bullish brigade and believes selling soon is prudent, is immediately dismissed as a warrant holder. It's unfortunate. I also don't have warrants and am moving more towards sell this now. ADXS is a late stage biotech and has been around for 16+ years. We have a substantial cash burn, which will lead to dilution sooner rather than later. I don't believe AXAL monetization is our savior either due to timing. The 52-week high is 9.55, any sale price should easily start from there with a multiple. I agree that with NEO starting soon we should hopefully see some stock appreciation...follow that with a reasonable sale price and all should be content. Getting the hold removed is also necessary.
Oh - I'm not saying the demand isn't there. Also, this has nothing to do with stock price!? I was thinking purely on their ability to find proper patients for the trial and any administrative hurdles, and the fact this is their first phase. I hope it does go that fast... or faster.
So they're able to find and enroll the necessary patients within 2 weeks? That's pretty incredible.
Is it not an 8 week turnaround (minimum) from the biopsy, to manufacturing the drug, to first dosage?
Sure, but I'm unaware of him ever giving such a definitive timeline as this..
Tony also stated definitively that we'd have a new CEO by mid-year..
50% above the 52-week high should be easily doable. Especially if this whole charade started a year ago and AMGN truly wants us off the table.. IMO
Yes - And we dumped 10 million shares at 2$ and are trading at cash values. There should be zero shorts.
However, no one bought enough shares to require a new 13D filing? @ 2$ a share, that's not a lot of money. Also, no filing on whether the additional 15% of shares were ever issued by the IB. So many things just don't add up.
sobering
I concur with that sentiment. That would have sent this board bonkers for sure.
They certainly display their management team prominently. Oh look - a CMO - what are those? Nothing makes sense anymore.
If that were the case, that would be extremely pathetic. Retail shareholders have a fairly large ownership level at this point. To disregard them as bag holders and not respond to simple emails would be beyond the pale.
Of course, at this point you could argue its par for the course.
If it's not a buyout, it's hard to believe that there needs to be a silence period. Just set the record straight!? There was no blackout pre-NEO announcement. Unless its a partial takeover or buyout, ADXS should be operating as usual and responding to questions [as usual].
I'm starting to lean towards this could be much ado about nothing.. but at some point we're bound to get something correct here.
Part of that should be attributed to Easter weekend as well...
This is definitely starting to look very peculiar. Question once again is - buyout or major stake? Whatever it is, this should start to move the needle in the right direction. Still uncertain.
Given the timing and our situation, I doubt 1 is in the cards right now. Unless a timed run-up is gonna start in April with the Pre-clinical release of NEO data. I think 2 is more likely given their bullish attitude towards their relationship with AMGN and the fact we can't seem to find a CEO/CMO to save our lives. More aggressive payments towards the NEO program could also be more palpable for AMGN post a partial takeover. Time will tell.
Bourbon - I'm starting to see the light! haha. What a mess this whole thing has become. Offering a HOT indication could the necessary sweetener to help get payments moving earlier and stabilize this price. My biggest fear is another dilution in 4-5 months at even lower lows. We need a life line.
Oh i agree. I couldn't even begin to speculate on the breadth and scope of this agreement, or the performance guarantees set in place by AMGN. I often wonder if there are certain financial like "covenants" involved with the contract that could damage the agreement as well (going concern). I'm also under no illusion that AMGN will just write a check for 400MM tonight. I'm solely looking at this through a partnership lens and when both parties are on solid footing - both tend to prosper. Due to the IND change and setback, most likely to the benefit of NEO/AMGN in the long run, ADXS in particular has been adversely affected short-term (cash). It could behoove AMGN to offer some sort of kicker and or re-arrange the percentage of payments to make it more front loaded as a means to stabilize. I don't think they're obligated to in any way, however, it could be beneficial for them both.
Yep. But maybe they could push to change the agreement as well. This change affected the timeline for the NEO program which adversely affects ADXS (cash burn) for the likely benefit of AMGN in the long run. Maybe they're willing to adjust payments due to the setback and the positive development from the IND change. Not the craziest idea...
This ^. The longer this stock languishes at all time lows the greater the fear that we could be forced to issue in the dollar range. They're gonna need cash in next 6 months. I don't think AMGN cares about dilution in that their purchase price will be irrelevant to # of shares. This price erosion is scary.
Also - I'm all for AMGN accelerating payments to ADXS - who wouldn't be? My question is why would they? To shore up their finances possibly so they don't go out of business, but they're not there yet.
I'll admit - I chuckled at that one. lol! Well played.
Hah - now that's a sobering admission to the reality at ADXS. Facts are facts.
Unfortunately, this has been the plan going on almost 3 years now. I don't know how bad it needs to get for them to make adjustments. Maybe a sale is the only solution - whatever the price may be.
The question for me is whether the pre-clinical info is strong enough to warrant a sale now or do we risk/reward our way to NEO results? I'm on the fence on that, and not sure how AMGN values pre-clinical. AXAL is so far away that I think it's tough to argue that it'll save us from another dilution.
This is the strangest company I've ever had the "pleasure" of investing in. Honestly, I'm at the point where i wouldn't mind if they put this thing out of its misery soon, I don't trust this management either.
I'm worried about dilution, at this point that's all. The science will prevail or not, but the damage that can be done in-between could be detrimental. They bumbled their way to a 2$ dilution - who's to say they won't do that again? They need to CUT CUT CUT, or we need to be realistic that another destructive dilution is possible..
Not trying to be negative, but in your honest opinion, did you get the feeling that we're dealing with amateur hour on the leadership (non-science) front? Thanks again for going and reporting back to us all. It was tough waiting.
Haha - I'm gathering that! Slowly learning..
I agree. I'm also looking forward to Bourbon's thoughts...
I'll admit, i do hope that theory is correct to some degree. It fits better than they just got caught unaware and lacked any foresight that a situation like this was possible.
But you're right, time will tell. How would that make TL and the rest of the MGMT team look though? Would you prefer various levels of incompetence, or a complicit executive team that doesn't know what else to do other than dilute at all time lows based on a pre-conceived plan?
More conspiracy theories. I think its more plausible that they misjudged their finances and were forced to issue based on the auditor's potential "going concern" report. At least that makes sense to me.
Wonderful. Thank you for the response! While they are responsible, in part, for navigating us into that position, there was no way of them knowing ahead of time that they'd be forced to issue at 2$.
Dew, I'm curious if you support the theory that the 2$ raise was related to potential "going concern" issues? When that raise was executed, we also didn't need capital right away. Why would they wait 6-9 months for a follow-up raise?
That's still dilution. Not one person has been right so far on anything with this company, other than they haven't generated any value and diluted at all time lows. Wouldn't it have been nice if they had kept the 10 million they just dumped? The 30 million was obviously in the bag, so it wasn't to force that vote.
Agreed. I don't see how they won't dilute again if there's no deal in the next couple months. They have nothing to lose. Diluting at 2 showed they have no problem tapping the markets at any level. Existing LT shareholders will be brought down to a minority - unless we pony up more $. Their cash burn is still outrageous given the situation. IMO.
They are thankful for all those broker votes... 8 million nays
Are you arguing that this management team is going to take this company down your proposed path of complete destruction if they don't get what they want? They will give zero credence to a potential buyout opportunity following a no-vote on the share authorization because you know its worth peanuts?
How do you know this?
It might be in the end. But it cost us dearly short term. It's never as simple as that.