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There may be some other options, one possibility is to negotiate with Amgen to get milestones paid earlier, add some milestones that can be paid earlier, etc.. One question is what does Amgen have to lose here? We don't really know the details of the agreement, but what happens to the NEO technology and the agreement if Advaxis were to go under?
There's not much doubt they need to consider cutting staff, and soon. I would say keep only the minimum necessary to continue with AXAL/DUAL, NEO, and to file any patents for HOT, everything else should be on the chopping block.
I think the big problem with this is the $30M equity line, who is going to give it to them when they only have $70M left in the bank and 2-3 quarters of operational runway? The other problem is the lack of reasonably guaranteed viability may be a problem for any company looking to pay them up front money, they may not be around to conclude the arrangement.
I think this is what the market is really concerned about with ADXS. If they can't get a licensing or development deal for enough funds to see a product through to meaningful revenue, then now they don't really have the alternative option of issuing enough shares to make that possible.
There's either something we don't know about or possibly the market is just telling us there is much bigger existential risk. The fact that there are no deals, no extra funds coming in, is kind of consistent with that view.
Right, ADRO is good for about 4 years at the current cash burn rate, that makes a huge difference.
It does make sense, it's called the balance sheet.
That's fair, but I think Amgen saw something in the pre-clinical NEO results that made that worth it, it certainly has much broader application.
Not going to happen, too much risk and work left to do to get it to market. I think they would be lucky to get any up front money, but they can probably get a decent royalty on future sales.
Exactly, most of the estimates about what these franchises are worth are just insane. I'll stick by my estimate that the most they could get is a few million dollars up front for HER2.
Nicely orchestrated take down since 9/8, doesn't really seem to be coordinated with any daily events, this talk on Thursday is another non-event.
I'm only at risk of stating the obvious.
400K shares before noon is low volume? Where are you coming up with this stuff?
Didn't you say that when the stock was at $5 and change?
Dream on, $15.
Not much doubt about it.
I don't see any fight, this is just in the tank.
I still feel like this is overdone, but the market really seems to be saying otherwise, since it just won't stop going down.
My faith is starting to wane.
Today seems to be back to the same old behavior where high volume spikes mean the stock goes down.
The volume is kind of average today, but unlike most other recent days, the price seems to go up when volume picks up.
I wonder if the statement that they are checking the mail everyday implies that they already heard unofficially that it's approved, but they have to get it in writing.
Like the price action today but not so much the volume, however the price does seem to go up or flat on most volume spikes.
I questioned the USDA about this, the whole process is kind of like rolling submissions that are reviewed every time, there's no well defined process for getting things out the door like at the FDA.
Gantor, seems to me you only said it's worth $1B in that post, so not really any change now.
I think the short covering we saw was simply "real" short covering because the price had gone down so much - close out a big winning position that has little potential additional upside. I also don't believe anyone is doing anything to coincide with, or time the short reporting windows, there's really no reason why the shorts would care about that. I hope this thing turns around, but I'm certainly beginning to have my doubts with all the big investors getting out.
I agree with most of this, but not sure that HOT is vaporware, I still claim it's not really much different than NEO near the time that Amgen decided to invest in it.
Now they have the photo captions backwards in the online article.
Is that picture really Lombardo? It looks nothing like the picture on the Advaxis web site.
The more I have thought about it, the lack of any explanation for recent events is almost certainly adding to the negative results in the stock price. As has been stated here often, firing the CEO without even a hint as to why, and little about how the strategy might be different with a new (interim) CEO has left room for a lot of speculation. Also, the delays in filings and delays in starting clinical trials have not been explained, and in some cases almost buried with little acknowledgement. Even the high cash burn rate was explained away with a very high level note of added costs associated with the EU filing, but why wasn't this known ahead of time, or at least now give some more detail about the costs? All of this is just adding up to sink the stock.
Seems like this stock is going to be stuck in a rut, at best, until something really material happens, meaning a deal with enough cash to alleviate all short term concerns, or extremely good study results, etc.. I think conditional approval of AT-014 is also going to be a non-event, although it would be nice to get some validation of the science.
Right, but the NEO technology does not have to target every neoepitope for a given patient, and if they make a version that only targets the 3-4 (or whatever number makes sense) most common neoepitopes for a given cancer type, then that HOT vaccine may be applicable to some large percentage of the patient population, correct? It would also have the added benefit of being available immediately, so it could be used along with NEO.
Up for the week, no complaints.
However, isn't the point that two patients may have the exact same mutation? And so, if you apply NEO technology/process to a single mutation then that same vaccine can be applied to multiple patients? That's how I understand it.
Or even better, they may find that many patients have a handful of the same mutations.
I disagree, what you consider good news is considered not good enough by the market, that's why the stock goes down. Everything is relative.
The risk profile of failure may be lower than 5 years ago, but probably much higher than 1-2 years ago, and that's largely why the stock has gotten pummeled. It's a higher risk because the financial runway is much shorter, but the potential rewards are also much greater at this point, but even those still have some risk. Meaning the rewards are not completely guaranteed even if the financial problems are solved.
So at a minimum Amgen bought into NEO before the IND was approved, and at least possibly before the IND was submitted. Not sure why you say someone buying into HOT now would be looking at something so much different than the state of NEO when Amgen bought into it.
When was the NEO IND filed? I couldn't find any press release. As we know the NEO IND was approved in Feb '17.
But you seem to be denying any other reason for the stock going down. I'll admit there is some HFT and manipulation, but you should admit that there is plenty of bad news and other known risks to explain some of the movement.
I think the only way that's possible is if they can show a lender that they are very likely to get an equal amount of payments from Amgen, and even at that they might have to then commit to using some percentage of that money to pay off the loan. Any other revenue is far from guaranteed.