Empire Building 101
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Tomorrow should be very interesting to say the least. Wonder what the reason was for the volume spike today. Obviously something very positive.
IMO, that all but says Joshua is gone. However, obviously he had worked with Joshua and his tecneques and thus very qualified. All good and probably a lot cheaper leading to better profitabilty and bottom line.
Obviously we are going much higher l-term based solely on fundamentals. I watch technicals but 90% rely on fundamental.s
Also buying/selling was almost even today at 1:1 thus IMO no idea what is coming but then in retrospect the market did plunge pretty hard today.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/medicine-man-technologies-qx-SHWZ/trades
Again with 15k bid it does appear a breakout could be imminent. Still holding all shares with a few added.
Have you ever bought the total amount on the ask and then nothing changes. I had a bid and ask of 4000bid 1000ask and I bought 2k on the ask when they supposedly weren't available and it did not change the ask. The mm's do scare tactics and lots of shenanigans. That is the reason we need to get off this exchange. Hope it happens sooner than later. GLTY
Nice 20k bid sitting. Not sure if it is a fake or not but certainly is nice to see that kind of interest.
I believe this can and will run very soon. So under valued and under followed IMO.
With epected news for tomorrow and being 4/20 I would expect another day of good volume. It would be nice to see a continuation of last Friday and not just consulidation after the gain last Friday.
Totally agree with that statement about numbers having to be accretive and having the discipline to say no to a bad deal.
The fact that Dye said SHWZ was severally under valued on EBIBTA as most companies were trading at 20x while SHWZ was trading at 8x tells me DYE believes SHWZ is valued at $5 currently which is refreashing to know as that is what many of us felt. But to come out of his mouth just means so much more and a guage to some equity financing mentioned for further acquisitions probably farther down the road.
Been very quiet myself here and digging more and more into SHWZ. For anyone who did not connect the dots the anaylyst Joe Gnomes is the interviewer with Dye on this podcast and currently has a holding in his firm of 460.9K of SHWZ. As I stated a few weeks ago the marketing had to get started as future acquisitions could not be good at $2 or less used as cash for acquisitions. My belief is they increased that in the recently ended Q. Looks like game on as the dog and pony show has officially launched. Exciting news coming IMO on 4/20/21 and anyone looking to get may very well miss the boat after Monday under $2.50 a share.
Analyst raised earnings this year from .10 to .13 and to 250Mil revenues and .26 for 2022.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHWZ/analysis?p=SHWZ
While the video was good I believe the volume and pps move is company specific totally related to the pending acquisition.
IMO, they need to start to promote as I said last week and obviously Dye is well aware of this. Otherwise with cash and stock they will be giving up to much stock at dirt cheap prices. Afterall, the criteria is spelled out very clear accretive and value added. These types of acquisition are not cheap. Thus promote hard and start giving stock at $5+ to get these deals done. Sure makes sense to start the promotion mow.
11 products from purplebees. I believe there was only 10 last time I looked or even less.
https://weedmaps.com/brands/purple-bees/products
Good to know and really what I thought you meant. Hopefully the q1 numbers and new acquisitions give us a real boost. Currently sitting tight. with almost 1/1 buys to sells today I would like to believe that the new bottom has been set. We need some exposure from management and certainly Dye through a little bone. Patiently waiting to see if it is a retail sale for 50% off or something game changing. On the bright side if it is a huge sale it would be a great exposure stunt to get more name recognition.
Hopefully more than just a promo for 420 with huge deals.
Why would you do that?
Sellers out numbered buyers 5/1 today. Without news we lose support and we will go below $2. No chart reader but appears obvious. Certainly not good with any acquisition news with shares.
pro-form numbers are merely the run-rate going forward as management is clearly indicating $60 Mil for Q4 of this year. A little confusing when the projections are $105-$125 Mil for this year based solely on what we already own and closed on. So in theory maybe things are going to be extremely better than the forecasts of the $105-125 Mil. Can't wait for the next announcement.
My assumption is the same. I believe they have news to share and with more acquisitions that will be financed with some stock they need to start sharing some good news and my gut feeling is that it comes before next month.
I would expect an announcement very soon n regards to the acquisition mentioned and the monies ear marked for this acquisition possibly this coming week. The fact that Dye has mentioned numerous times the quality of the team he has assembled and the plan IMO a priority to talk about the on-going activity has steam rolled going forward and not pontificate on the Star Buds which took almost a year to complete through unknown snags and delays. While I do expect him to talk about the synergies and improvements since the completion of Star Buds and the branding of the Mesa stores. I believe it is so important to get this acquisition done and show the roll up plan is moving very nicely and picking up steam. Dye has mentioned more than once needing more money for future acquisitions and whether a debt or equity offering it is needed. What better time than when Q1 is announced to show case what has happened and what is happening which gives potential investors a reason plus a little positive pump which is severely needed as we are doing no shareholders any favors by offering shares under $2.50 for acquisition purposes. Of course IMO. Still very stoked owning this company despite the pitiful Q4 earnings. GLTA
Definitely a keeper. I don't hold a lot 4k but going to keep it for a year or more as this is going to get a lot of attention especially as EBIDTA becomes a reality with the forecast projected which IMO doable.
Turning Mesa to Star Buds is a huge positive. Star Buds reputation in Colorado is 2nd to none.
Agree, Not much buying /selling interest which is not a bad thing. Hope to see an announcement prior to Q1 earnings. Analyst is calling for a .01 profit Q1 and .02 for Q2. IMO that would move the stock considerably.
For those that were unable to hear the call. Overall upbeat would have liked to see more details. While a little disappointed I did not and have not sold any shares. GLTA
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416925-medicine-man-technologies-shwz-ceo-justin-dye-on-q4-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript
Still appreciate your input as it gives hope. Il can't believe no update on Joshua as he was taken off the staff with no explanation. This makes me very leery. He is almost the main reason I loaded up here the way I did and of course the Star Buds acquisition. My biggest hope and the most impactful to the bottom line is the Safe Banking Act which alone would change the whole scope of everything I am so critical of. GLTA
PS Not hearing anything about Joshua and the hush hush really bothers me as it implies they very well could be hiding other things.
I am saying their is no way in hell the Star Buds before acquisition cleared $28 Mil. That is bringing more than .35 to the bottom line after taxes and other charges. Plus what is the tax rate in the state alone plus the federal taxes. Next the cost of goods alone will be high as they have to buy most of the bud. Not trying to be negative but nobody brings .35 on the dollar to the bottom line. Show me one public company and I will digress on this point.
They stated they were cash flow positive not profitable. Big difference. However, cash flow positive is good news but may or may not include certain non cash deductions.
If they are accretive how are they going to pay for these? High interest? Dilution?
This was absolutely the worst of 90% earnings report this Q. in this sector. Almost everyone had a much improved bottom line and we had the worst Q all year. The focus should have been on results and what they will do to improve them. Instead talk about rosey future projections. Sure as heck I am wrong. Many talk about EBITDA but miss the point when your paying lots of monies on interest. Kind of like a car loan at 28% or no interest or low interest. Without an out on the the 12%-15% interest getting to profitably is going to be tough. Hope to be dead wrong but going back to the $1.20 converted shares and then get 12-15% interest is thieving off the shareholders. I honestly think the preferred shares at 8% is fair deal. Guess in another 45 days we will see here where the wind is blowing especially bottom line after EBITDA is factored in. GLTA
PS I believe another good size loss is coming for Q1.
Sales are going to grow nicely but the costs are going to be high as we will get at least $7 mil a year from interest alone which wasn't even a factor in q4. We have $1.2 Mil in cash so dilution or more high interest coming.
Everyone look at the Q4 financials all costs are extremely high and when I said they would take a bunch of write-offs I was given all the hoopla that they could not write off many things. Remember me getting a post with a link explaining I was wrong. Well I then admitted being wrong per the link. Then we come out with expenses higher than revenues and hardly any interest being written off at all. So really what gives?
I may be way off here on my thinking but losses were 400% more than anyone was suspecting as .03 .06 loss was a consensus while Hoop was calling for a profit. Then we have a article stating Star Buds cleared $28 Mil on revenues of $75 Mil. which was so much BS. The fact that real questions were not answered makes me wonder exactly what is in the Kool aide. We have a board member mysteriously disappear which was definitely material info and nada word. Super high operating costs and skated over that.
The savior is safe banking for sure but realistically with the administration was going to change everything and next thing you know 5 people in the White House let go for previously use of marijuana. Lots of questions but no real.
I would be shocked if this goes up tomorrow based on Q4 showing. In fact, I believe sub $1.50 is very possible as the Q4 show was atrocious/ Acquisitions nay be ok but it is becoming a certainty that net income will be very elusive this year and interest expense is going to balloon along with stock based compensation which alone was $2.5 Mil. loss.
For anyone who remembers I originally said they would have a bad q(loss) and was just totally chastised by everyone. People need to realize just how horrible this Q really was. While a huge revenue increase will come the problem is these on going expenses. We may not see $3 again this year IMO. Net income was not mentioned and a lack of any real answers on the cc was obvious concerning.
Unfortunately it widened on the downside.
Hope so as q4 total sucked as losses excelled very disappointed as revenues were marginally better than we and probably down when you consider they had 6 Star Budsfor 10 days. Plus guidance was lowered from 115mil.to 125 mil. To 105 mil. To 125 Mil. WTF and no explanation
While it is possible you have 2 Mil in notes paying an average of 12% which equals 3.2Mi in interest and then you have 17.9 mil preferred at 8% which is another $1.32 Mil and this is only for the last 5 dispensaries. Plus other costs incurred. These 13 dispensaries will be probably net $5 mil for the year. I believe $10 mil for the year gives around .18 year end.
These other operators probably had no debt to the magnitude we have taken on that owned Star Buds.
What are your expectations in lieu of all these costs from the acquisitions Doc?
While I am very optimistic these costs have to be factored in for SHWZ net income this year. I believe $10 is very realistic this year based on a very low P/S but to think this net income will carry-over with no carrying costs is absurd. IMHO, .18 is attainable this year and .45 next year based on another profitable acquisition or two.
I find that net income very unbelievable. Looking at the ones that did show a pro-forma numbers. I believe it is EBITDA and yet another uninformed writer. Hopefully they have that right and then we would truly fly. Heck that is .50 per share net income on 42 mil O/S. with just 13 dispensaries based on 2020 numbers. Not trying to be negative at all as the numbers will get progressively better Q/Q.
Honestly you don't know how bad I hope this guy has it right. But realistically margins topping out at 40% which is realistic is about $20 Mil which would be EBITDA and that excludes interest expense, Taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Not trying to bust anyone's balls but take a good look how much interest is going to take a hit at 8-15% plus taxes.
The only analyst is calling for .10 per share this year which would be $4.2 Mil. IMO, I believe .15-.18 is very possible as I believe again Purplebees is the golden goose going forward.
Good luck to all and hopefully I will have something to share after the CC as we are in the quiet period.
Not really looking for much increase in PPS after earnings maybe $2.50 tops. With that said I am very biased here and have extremely high expectations later this year. Remember we have had some very good earnings reports on MSO's and TCNNF and they all went down. Like many others my bag is full. Look for another 13 D filing soon based on my gut feeling...lol GLTA
My thoughts are a secondary is coming. All the family and shares are held tightly now. By Q2 earnings we should be close to $5. Tnen either a bought deal or secondary. We have the next acquisition announced and absorbed then it hppens unless Safe Act is finanlized.
Surely does not look good to hold $2 tomorrow unless a big buyer shows up s my 500 -1000 share buys aren't going to cut it. IMO, I do not think Joshua is gone as it would certainly be a material event in his position and would require a filing. If he is that would be a red flag but like I said I do not believe it.