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Nice trading day, good close. With the big seller out of the way, no reason DSS should be pushed down. Tomorrow should be another day it attacks the upside, maybe opening $1.85 and going from there. I am not sure how much real resistance there will be in the $2.00 area, I am starting to think when we get there we go through it, just like on the way down.
Some people are trading the chart, some are trading the fundamentals. In this case both are telling you DSS should be higher and that is where it is moving. From my perspective, the heavy selling is clearly done and the bottom very likely in now in place. Whether it trades to 1.85 or 1.90 in the short term, we will see, but the clear objective will be $2.00 as it is the big target on the horizon.
At the end of the day it does not matter how you are investing/trading DSS, this is a discussion board for information. Lets keep it that way.
I think you might see a good pop here shortly. The stock price didn't slowly go down and often times once the ball gets rolling it can follow a similar pattern back up.
Chas,
The problem with DSS an technicals is that the whole drop had virtually nothing to do with TA. By the trading there were no significant stop losses triggered and basically the price drop was due to millions of shares being sold. No chart formation or sell signal was the reason.
That's why now, I wouldn't be surprised at all if we trade by technicals are not at all and it's more by momentum again.
PI,
I think the 2 events are different though and clearly now so did the company.
You are correct in saying neither is/was a surprise, but the difference is that the merger ended up providing a lot more shares some through the warrants. The company made sure that the listing requirement was not going to be market cap/stock price, which tells me in retrospect that they anticipated liquidation from one or a few big shareholders.
The pre markman hearing run up has happened with many stock in this arena, mostly because the stock gets a lot more exposure and people start to actually focus on potentially favorable outcomes. Since stock prices are mostly derived off forward looking earnings and events, I think you will see a nice run.....especially if Novell is settled early.
With a solid close at the end yesterday we should see a little higher opening this morning, maybe 1.72-1.74 and go from there.
Nope there are still some shares to be sold I think and that IMO is the only thing holding the price back from a strong rally. I think over the next week we are going to flush out the remaining shares. The price action strongly suggests that. With doubling up my position 2 days ago DSS has become my largest holding but it's also the stock I am most confident will pay off, especially down at what I think are temporary way undervalued levels.
A good day overall and more importantly even though the price was only up 3 cents, the stock appears to be setting in a bottom. Without the shares, the MM's will fade back into the background.
The action is no exactly opposite of the drop, when offers were being paid, suddenly 2 bids would be hit and we were lower. At this point it is a bid market for DSS here, albeit a slow moving one.
The difference is that the selling is not pushing it down now. The ball game seems to be changing.
Watch the early price action today. In the roughly 2 week drop the price action has been pretty much the same in the first hour: open a little higher, then start the drop. That changed yesterday as the stock couldn't be pushed down in the $1.58-$1.59 area. DSS has also not had 2 green days in a row in a while. The first hour will tell you how the day will go, if price holds firm, odds are good of another green day.
The settlement with Jive includes a 5% royalty rate going forward. The suit vs Facebook also includes infringement of another key patent that Jive was not accused of. Not sure where the $1 million dollar comes from, there have been many articles showing how the settlement could and should be worth over $100 million.
Yes there are more shares since the merger, there is also a much better net debt ratio, stronger management and all of Bascom's patents now in play. Not sure where the $1.85 comes from, but DSS has far greater upside from the markman and other items. This is also likely a temporary drop in price facilitated by one or 2 big holders paring back their position. As well, as people here have mentioned do not forget about the salesforce.com litigation.
I think we might be seeing both the final touches of the big selling combined with finding the foundation buying interest. The $1.50 level should naturally see buyers ahead of it. The proof is in the pudding though or should I say in the close. I think once it starts to rally, new people will jump on board, but first step is price stabilization.
This stock has not really traded on a technical basis for a few weeks at least now. As was suspected, this is a large holder either getting out or pairing down a good amount of their holding. The crazy thing is how the selling has occurred. As a former trader in forex, I had many very large positions or orders to work through and the last thing I would do is blast the market each day.
To me the movement in the stock has split my strategy. One the one hand I owned the stock for the merger, upcoming markman and other potential good news. Yesterday I bought another good size tranche because without a change to the fundamental outlook of the company, these moves reward those who take the emotion out and just pick a level and can wait out the rebound. So now I have a truly short term position for the rebound and a longer term position. This is not trying to pick the bottom, more a level I am comfortable holding because if good news does come out, the stock will move a lot in a few hours, or gap higher at the open.
From a technical standpoint, a round level like $1.50 should see some support, but only 2 things will really move the stock back up. 1, the big selling slows or ends or 2. The company announces favorable settlement news and the seller will get swallowed up. Right now it's a perfect vacuum of big selling and no favorable news.
PI,
You are correct on the buyer for every seller and vice versa. Large moves on high volume many more times than not, validate the move.
Ah thanks, the helps. More reading to do this weekend...lol.
Yep on the Virtual Agility side. Ill admit I need to do more reading about that lawsuit and what the monetary damages could be. The interesting I notice is that other big companies like FedEx, Dell and Kimberly-Clark are also named in the suit.
A favorable settlement with Novell would really solidify the 232, 971 and 974 patents in the upcoming battle with Linkedin and Facebook. That would leave the 241 patent as the only real battleground, unless LI and FB could somehow prove pretty much the foundation of their business from a technological standpoint really does not infringe these patents. Not likely.
The settlement with Novell would be a very good thing and great for the SP.
A close above $2.00 would confirm this as the low. Nice thing today was volume died off a bit which means the big selling we have seen for over a week is probably coming to an end. Friday will be a SLOOOOOOOW day, but a move up to say $1.90 would be a good sign for next week.
Sure, but getting it down 50% is not that easy. The float is still small, the problem has been lack of buyers. The stock has been slammed before yesterday on what I would consider mediocre volume at best.
The institutional buying never came, so now it's up to other buyers to step in. The crazy thing is nothing at all has changed from the company perspective.
Well now we know who is selling. Looks like the short sellers jumped on board to pre-empt the drop. The question now is when are all the shares unloaded and is there any true support for the stock. Over million shares is a lot of shares, it sti shouldn't dump a stock 50%, even this one.
Something that was interesting from yesterday. Over half the volume was traded in the 1.90-2.05 area. Traditional trading would say that makes little sense that a lot of the buying would be in the 1.90 area, you would think that it would be an area whether stop losses kick in but it wasn't and you know this because it did not fly down and stay there for the rest of the day. Today is going to be very volatile. If DSS can rally over 2.00 and keep it that would be a strong sign. This is not just shorting, as there simply is not this many shares to short, so my thinking is someone has been dumping a lot of shares, but for what reason I don't know. Today is very important though, watch the price action early.
PI, read the Chas post from 9 hours ago that starts, it covers the answer on the board. Basically they now jointly vote on the 9th, which is anticipated to be Cohen.
I did notice that. I also noticed that after the first move down to 2.00, most of the shared traded today were between 1.90 and 2.05. Does it mean anything? Only if the stock price goes up tomorrow and this area was the base....we will see I guess.
From a TA perspective a big decline on very high volume is a really bad sign. DSS will not finish near 1.95 today, there is nothing there. We will see a another move this afternoon and if it is to the upside, you have likely seen the bottom. If it is not, my guess would be $1.50 as the target. This is not just shorts, the volume is way too big.
I'm convinced they are trying to trip stop losses here, nothing else makes any sense unless one of the major players is dumping shares. Below 2.00 there is not any real technical support and they know this. Looks like its going lower at least first.
A lot of volume too. They are either going to get it way under 2.00 or this thing is going to 2.30-2.40 today
Merger completion announced and we still see aggressive selling. Not sure what is going on. No movement is one thing, but who exactly is selling here. They are making a big push to send it under 2.00, perhaps thinking their are stop losses to trigger.
On or around 7-1
Another 17.8k shares are reported bought at 4:25 pm at 2.2993. Not a coincidence
PI, I see 21,791 shares
It is alarming, there are very few buyers and it does not make sense. Maybe a bunch of people bought in for a pop with the merger and it did not happen. We are dropping on tiny volume, which means buyers can't be found.
If we are still down here on July 1st I would be a bit more concerned. At this point, a couple of the IP play stocks have been hit pretty good of late, yes DSS is not exactly the same but sometimes it takes a while to set in.
As we said before most smaller guys are already in and other bigger players might want to wait till the merger is officially papered. Either way, as has been said, right now either lay low or add to the position.
There is positive news coming and I have seen in other stocks either like say MNKD where utterly false stories are planted or stocks where shorts and MM's can manipulate a stock. However they all have one thing in common, in the long term real news always trumps them and dictates where the stock will go.
Nothing has changed from a week ago, better volume will come and if you believe in the Lexington management and the Bascom patents, the worst thing you can do is let short term pressure put you out.
Sure it was also the reason it was going to be approved because DSS really needed the capital infusion. Now though with the confirmation of the merger approval, the low volume drops in share price will find more buyers, myself included.
Yep it is now, just did not like the idea at all.
Interesting to see how we open in the morning.
Reverse split was a disaster waiting to happen. New management does their job and executes and SP will take care of itself. The vast majority of R/S I have seen have not turned out well.
What is important though is that the stock price shouldn't be able to be pushed around on small volume from this point. It got sold down this morning on the not a lot of shares for the size more.... Glad I bought more
This feels to me to be a trap. Volume is light, easy to push the price around. Does not feel like a real news driven fall, so I am going to add to the my position.
It's going down on light volume. So either they are pushing it to try to buy lower when the approval comes, or something is wrong with the approval. If something was wrong with the approval though volume should be a lot higher and price a lot lower.
Tomorrow is the day. If people are establishing shorts at this level, it just makes no sense to me. The merger is about as close to a slam dunk as there is and it is not as if DSS has some (or will have some) huge valuation. The company will have plenty of cash, prospects on the operating side and multiple patent fronts. With that said, the stock should be over $3 after 7/1 but even if it is not, patience is the key, this company will move to the forefront soon enough.