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Putting 1/3 of my money in towards a long position before the close. May add more tomorrow and Monday.
Only 8 new highs on the Nasdaq? I'm transfering some cash out of my 5.25% interest checking account with ING to get ready for an up move.
Dan, we almost hit 40 on the $VXO (37.69 hod)
Foot,
Are you buying? Looks like it hit your numbers. I was just joking with Dan about it possibly getting to 40 on the $VXO. I guess that could be possible? Still 1 day left before OE is officially over.
Good thing my long position on SSO was small 2 days ago when I bought the close. I may go all in soon.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21989722
Yeah I'm in the same boat. Been working all night for a police dept network outage and all morning. Didn't put stops in or any sell orders. It looks like I had a couple chances today to get out. Anyhow I have to decide whether to hold or cut my losses tomorrow. Looks like we are going to test NDX 1850 and SPX 1380.
Damn... as Gleno would say el crapo... I've been dealing with a stupid network outage for the police dept all night 1:30 AM and this morning. I knew this was gonna be dangerous and should've put orders in to get out but didn't. Now I have to decide whether to cut my losses or hold on. Looks like SPX 1380 and NDX 1850 is the numbers to tag next.
Well this may be dangerous, since the trend is down on the daily and 60mins, but I just decided to buy SSO before the close. Things look a little over done. I'm not planning to hold long too long. hehe...
PIT OPTIONS
CME S&P 500 Options as of 08/13/07
16,657 puts v. 75,357 calls
Wow... all indices on the 60mins looks like they either have broken or are about to breakdown out of triple test. Didn't Scamman call it the rule of 4? Breakout will follow in the direction of the triple test?
GE...
Anyone have any opinions about GE and putting it in as a long term/hold in the portfolio?
I picked some up last Friday at $37.40 but on 2nd look on the long term charts the macd is down and it looks like it may get down to the 200ma around $36.32
Opps I forgot to post the link:
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Is that CNBC site accurate? I use cnn.
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Futures:
S&P 500 +17.00 1468.00 8/13 8:36am S&P 500 FUTURES
Fair Value 1457.62 8/10 6:12pm
Difference* +10.38
NASDAQ +21.75 1950.75 8/13 8:33am NASDAQ FUTURES
Fair Value 1934.68 8/10 6:12pm
Difference* +16.07
Dan I think we're going to bottom out as well sometime next week during OE. (Most likely during the middle to end of the week.) There's double and tripple bottoms occuring in most of the 60min charts for the SPX, NDX, MID caps, and DJIA
If the VXO hits 40 I'll be going all in like Denmo. That certainly is a rare event.
VXO is out of the BB:
VXO 10 year:
Look at the amount of Nasdaq highs... only 25??
Everyone seems so bearish. I'm still waiting around in cash. This could be a W bottom. The fed seems to be intervening as well as everyone in the world by injecting liquidity. I guess we will find out if it'll be enough to stabilize the market.
Well,
We closed the morning gap on the NDX and SPX now what?
Denmo,
Just curious, did you get out of your long position during the "Day After Fed Pattern" or are you holding on for the next cycle highs? I'm still waiting to see what's going on. If we re-test the lows and bounce off or if we go down further. With all this negativity and blood in the streets, hopefully by next week we'll bottom out and I can go all in with a long position.
Koep,
I agree, I'm not sure about the fed afterday pattern, but I think til the rest of the week the markets are going to be choppy and consolidating around the SPX 1460-1465 area and 1950 NDX area with indecisions from both bear/bull, a day traders dream. Then maybe next week we get a major move/breakout telling us which direction to go.
Oh... I guess after a couple years I am still confused with the fed day pattern. (Granted I don't usually day trade.) Anyhow I thought the up/down/up or down/up/down was suppose to all happen right after the 2:15PM announcement and that time frame normally lasted 15-30mins after the announcement. I didn't know the pattern was suppose to be 2:15PM til the 4PM close.
Nice call holding on and waiting for the Fed Announcement.
Denmo,
I guess since it looks like everything is going green after 2:15PM FOMC announcement (down-up-down) the next day will be the opposite of today's closing price. So does that mean we go down tomorrow??
Nirvana,
Thanks, you're right about taking profits; although I'm not tyically a day trader. I tend hold and stay with the trend watching the 60min charts and the daily. The markets are just so choppy right now. It wouldn't surprise me if we bounced up and down/consolidate til Friday.
Everytime volatility goes up, the market is choppy, there's a lot of indecision and a lot of people chanting bull/bear, etc; I've learned from many past mistakes to take pause and be extremely cautious and wait for the trend outcome.
Work was a little slow today and I acually had a chance to watch the markets.
Good luck with your trade.
Gleno, I'm too chicken to see what the FEDs will say and how the market will interpret things so I'm back in cash. This may be premature but, I sold out my QLD just a minute ago.
Gleno, I pulled the trigger at $92 for QLD. I'm still debating on whether I should close this before the end of today or if I should hold after the CSCO earnings report. It just seems like any good news we've been selling into. Scam mentioned that we're in WER mode.
Cool chart Foot. It looks like an H&S starting from last July 06 and with the recent backtest to 1969 and failure. If it truely is an H&S/bear market there's huge gaps to fill. 2060 High - 1912 = 148, take the neckline at 1912 - 148 = 1764 which should cover all three gaps.
But that makes things too easy I guess. I'm still waiting to see what happens at the 200ma. (Whether it's a bounce off the 200ma or whether we breakdown.) Closed my QIDs and SDSs on August 1 and am in cash right now.
At support at the weekly. I guess we'll see pretty soon if the 2 1/2 year trend is broken or if we bounce.
Gleno, good bet. Let's see if we get below the 200ma on the daily today or in the next couple sessions.
This consolidation is like watching paint dry. I'm not a day trader so I tend to follow Denmo, Smooth_shot, and Mr. Cassandra's style of trading which is holding for a while by waiting for a trend confirmation on the 60min and daily. What I've learned in the past 5 years is to be patient and to follow the trend and not try to trade the counter trends, cause I don't have the time during the day at work and I'm not nimble enough. I sold my QIDs and SDSs on Wednesday. It should be interesting to see if the 200ma holds for the daily $SPX or if there will be more down.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?spx
Could be an inverse H&S on the 60min. Been waiting on the 60min to figure out whether to go long or short.
Two,
For the past few thursday's there has been two repos. I think that is typical. They have been quite high too:
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Operation Close Time: 09:40 AM
Total Submitted 49.500 Accepted 8.000
Operation Close Time: 08:30 AM
Total Submitted 36.600 Accepted 10.000
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Operation Close Time: 09:40 AM
Total Submitted 45.5 Accepted 8.0
Operation Close Time: 08:30 AM
Total Submitted 81.55 Accepted 9.0
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Operation Close Time: 09:40 AM
Total Submitted 45.75 Accepted 14.25
Operation Close Time: 08:30 AM
Total Submitted 93.8 Accepted 6.0
Thursday, March 8, 2007
Operation Close Time: 09:40 AM
Total Submitted 48.25 Accepted 7.25
Operation Close Time: 08:30 AM
Total Submitted 94.45 Accepted 15.00
Denmo,
What do you think about this latest rally on low volume? Are you still in cash since the last time your Wingman went negative? It looks like 1 or 2 more up days will cause the ADX to go back into the green. I'm just curious what your thoughts are since you tend to trade on a longer term than most people.
Denmo,
My sister lives near Fort Campbell. She was recently deployed over there, and is still worried she is going to Iraq. (She's a Medical Officer/Pediatrician). Last time I visited we tried to go to Pattie's because everyone claims the food is great. But apparently you need reservations or you'll need to wait like 2+ hours on the weekends so we decided to go elsewhere.
You think this had anything to do with it too?
Sanctions Readied for Beijing
Friday March 30, 11:10 am ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Commerce Official Says Administration Will Impose Trade Sanctions on China in Paper Dispute
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070330/us_china_trade.html?.v=6
Foot, cool Trinq chart. I've booked marked the link.
BTW - 5ema appears to be rez on both $SPX and $NDX daily charts.
$NDX
$SPX
Foot, nice chart. This shows the macd n/c nicely on the daily. First around 12/1/06 and then the next high on the qqqq around the begining of 3/07.
The current trend looks down. I guess as scam say's we're in WER mode (Whack Every Rally).
Yeah I'm short too. I too am worried a bit by the support that we're sitting on and window dressing/EoM/EoQ for funds as well as 401K/payroll deposits . I wouldn't be surprised if we consolidate for the next couple of days and then more down next week.
Foot, yeah the closed the gap, brought it down but the questions is do we bounce of the support or fall through?
MACD N/C shaping up on the 15 min
60min charts show we're currently sitting right on support at NDX 1779 and SPX 1420 which is just below support. I have a feeling we'll close at support and make people bite their finger nails guessing which direction tomorrow.
Oil prices rise US$1, easing back from their spike on Iran attack rumor
The Associated Press
Published: March 28, 2007
Oil prices rose by more than US$1 a barrel Wednesday but were still below an earlier spike of more than US$5 a barrel on rumors that Iran had fired a missile at a U.S. ship in the Persian Gulf.
The U.S. military denied the reports. Still, rumors about a military confrontation spurred panic buying in after-hours trading Tuesday, sending oil prices above US$68 in a matter of minutes. Rising tensions between Iran and the West have created a potentially dangerous situation in the Gulf and markets are jumpy.
On the other hand: "Upside breakout from inverse head and ashoulders chart formation suggests potential upside projection to $70 over next several weeks."
http://www.lbrgroup.com/pics/charts/seen/1175156513.png
I guess all eyes are on the fed now which will determine market direction. Wow is inflation really this bad? May be we are just getting use to it with this slow creep year after year.
Inflation Watch: FOMC
in Federal Reserve | Inflation
The Fed finishes the second day of a 2-dayer, and we are widely expecting a "nuthin' done" at 2:15. Barring some religous conversion by a majority of Fed members, we will also get the usual boilerplate that the risks between slowing growth and inflation are "balanced."
We know growth is slowing, and we know inflation is "elevated" -- but by how much? Here's two tidbits worth considering.
The first, via Tickersense, is a breakdown of the components of CPI:
Cpi_attribution_chart_0207
Note how over the past year, the Food & Beverage component has expanded. Also noteworthy: how understated the Medical Care portion of CPI actually is. We know that medical costs, prescriptions, hospital stays, insurance, et. al. have been rising at 10%+ per annum. Lastly, the Shelter portion has actually been understated over the past 10 years due to OER (Owner's Equivalent Rent); Now, it may be slightly overstated.
Tickersense notes: "Over the last seven years, overall prices as measured by the CPI have risen about 21%. Of that gain, the cost of shelter is responsible for over 40%, followed by transportation and food and beverages, with each comprising about 14% of the total gain."
The second factor the Fed should be mulling over is the global nature of inflation these days. In the UK, the most recent data showed surprising strength in price increases, with inflation pressures being called "persistent."
Bloomberg reported:
"U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated in February to the second-fastest pace in a decade, strengthening the case for a further interest-rate increase from the Bank of England.
Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier as air fares and food costs climbed, the London-based Office for National Statistics said today. Economists expected 2.7 percent, the median of 39 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed.
The pound rose as investors speculated the central bank will raise borrowing costs again to bring inflation back to the 2 percent target this year. The Bank of England has increased rates three times since August as surging home values encouraged consumer spending, fueling price pressures in Europe's second- largest economy."
Along with the rest of the world's central bankers, U.K. policy makers have raised borrowing costs -- they are at 5.25% (like the US). Investor in Great Britain widely expect to see a hike to 5.5 by June. The ECB is at 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan is at 0.5%.
Todya's FOMC decision will be released at 2:15pm . . .
NYSE Margin Hits All Time Record
Now we are getting into the uh-oh region:
NYSE Member Firm Margin Levels
Nyse_member_firm_margin
(See our prior discussion on what this may or may not mean here)
Bloomberg News has the details:
The amount of money borrowed from brokerages that do business on the New York Stock Exchange to buy stock rose 3.6 percent to a second straight monthly record, reaching $295.9 billion in February. Margin debt, as the borrowing is called, in January broke the prior high set at the peak of the so-called Internet bubble.
Changes in the level of margin debt have mirrored those of U.S. stock indexes. After setting an all-time high of $278.5 billion in March 2000, margin debt dropped to less than half that amount by September 2002. It reached $285.6 billion in January.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/03/19/nyse_member_firm_margin.png
Foot,
Do you think more down after all the inflow of 401K money?? May be starting next Monday when all the inflows starts drying up?
This is from Scamman's post on clearstation today:
Weekly:
Mar 14
Equity Fund Inflows $11.9 Billion
xETFs - Equity Fund Inflows $1.9 Billion
Mar 7
Equity Fund Outflows -$4.0 Billion
xETFs - Equity Fund Outflows -$4.3 Billion
It it normal to have more than 1 temporary open market operations in 1 day? One closed at 8:30 am and the other at 9:40 am? The 1st is a 14 day and second is a 1 day repo. I guess they really want to inject a lot of liquidity out there?
At 8:30 with 93.8Billion submitted only 6 billion accepted. Then at 9:40 AM 45.75 was submitted and they only got 14.25billion accepted.
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE