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Here is the report which shows Intel short position is very high level.
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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) ? Intel Corp. is expected to post another decline in both sales and earnings when it reports first-quarter results Tuesday afternoon, as a sharp decline in PC sales has crimped demand for the company?s chip products.
With Intel stock already down more than 20% over the last 12 months, investors may have already built in low expectations for Intel INTC?? especially that came last week from firms including IDC and Gartner.
But many on Wall Street expect things to get worse for the semiconductor major. Less than one-third of the brokers covering Intel currently rate the stock as a buy. Meanwhile, short interest on the stock has grown significantly, from 2.9 days to cover last April to nearly 7 days as of March 28, according to Nasdaq data.
?We believe investors may not be hugely surprised by weak outlook in the current environment, and would not hugely press the short into the quarter,? wrote Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research in a note to clients on Monday.
For the first quarter, Intel is expected to report earnings of 40 cents a share on revenue of $12.6 billion, according to consensus estimates from FactSet. The Street?s revenue target is slightly below the $12.7 billion mid-point of Intel?s own guidance for the period, issued after its last earnings report in January.
While weak results may already be factored in, investors will be paying close attention to the company?s forecast for the rest of the year. Some believe an influx of touch-enabled PC products using Intel?s new line of Haswell chips will boost demand for the second half of the year.
?Meanwhile, we remain positive on Intel shares, based on the company?s lead in semiconductor-manufacturing technology,? wrote Kevin Cassidy of Stifel Nicolaus, who rates the stock as a buy.
?In our view, it is this manufacturing advantage that may drive Intel products into a wider range of mobile products as consumers demand more performance and longer battery life from their mobile devices,? Cassidy wrote.
Others are less optimistic. Rasgon of Bernstein rates Intel as underweight, or sell, in part on the belief that the company?s high capital expenditures on new fabricating technology will put it in a position of having to chase lower-margin chip products due to less PC demand.
Rasgon also cites a lack of significant presence in devices such as smartphones and tablets.
But the question over who will become Intel?s next chief executive officer is a key overhang on the company right now.
Current chief Paul Otellini has announced his plans to retire, with his final day set for the company?s May 16 annual meeting. There is significant speculation around Silicon Valley right now as to who might land the top job, but the company has made no announcements yet.
Most analysts agree on the need for the company to find a leader who can grow the Intel?s mobile business.
?So while we expect management to reaffirm its growth targets for the year on Tuesday?s call, we don?t expect the stock to outperform the market until consumers become more excited about new PC categories or the company lands a high-volume design win in mobile,? Ed Snyder of Charter Equity wrote in a note to clients Monday.
I agree 125% with you. This 125% came from days when I was Intel. To cope with recession it invented 125% in stead of lay off. It worked brilliantly then.
The same coming CEO will be able to take Intel to new heights.
Thanks for your clarification.
I am completely baffled by your comments. I have read most of your blogs on alpha and then I see these comments. I wonder who you really are.
If you though PO was such a person long time back and did not believe he was capable of leading Intel then why invest in Intel.
Proof lies in pudding. Intel despite what PO has not been able to achieve is still the top semiconductor of the world. It is still the top dog in manufacturing. It still is bringing products to products at a frantic pace and these products do compare well to its competitors.
PO direction must have been blessed by its board. He could not move alone.
The biggest selling notebook on amazon.com is Chromebook by Samsung.
I do agree with you. Intel is so much tied to MS that if Intel wanted to break up Wintel name, it will be difficult to do.
It does not appear to me that way. AH drop off what it gained during the day. It is very clear that the news wasn't baked into stock.
This is rehash of what we all know except RBC adds its opinion.
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1:11 PM
INTC: Otellini’s Successor Most Important Decision in Years, Says RBC
By Tiernan Ray
Intel COO Brian Krzanich is among those that media reports have short-listed to replace CEO Paul Otellini when he departs next month.
RBC Capital chip analyst Doug Freedman today reiterates a Sector Perform rating on shares of Intel (INTC), and a $24 price target, reflecting on the short list of people who might replace CEO Paul Otellini when he steps down next month, names he’s mostly culled from media speculation.
‘Currently, the lack of CEO succession is a huge issue for our investment thesis,” says Freedman, calling it the company’s “most important decision Intel has made since 300mm.”
“We need to have a firm grasp on the direction the new CEO is targeting before we are able to offer conviction for large scale investment.”
With 14% of total chip sales globally every year, Intel’s choice of successor is important for the entire industry, opines Freedman.
He thinks Otellini’s replacement must excel at building areas such as mobile and software, to move the company beyond the PC:
The successor to Otellini should have a blueprint in place to grow the newer growth initiatives in a manner to disrupt the areas where Intel feels they are best-positioned; we believe this is in mobile and software. When anointing a CEO this time around, a deep understanding of the PC market no longer gives a candidate an edge, which gave Otellini an advantage in succeeding Craig Barrett in 2005. In our view, the next leader could depend on who is best suited to grow not one, but all, areas of Intel’s efforts in mobile, data center, software and foundry (should the company succeed in growing the top line).
The candidates may include outsiders, such as former Motorola Mobility CEO Sanjay Jha, former ARM Holdings (ARMH) CEO Warren East, and VMware (VMW) CEO Pat Gelsinger.
As for insiders, the list includes COO Brian Krzanich; CFO Stacy Smith; chairman Andy Bryant; software lead Renee James; Intel Architecture director David “Dadi” Perlmutter; and PC client technology director Kirk Skaugen.
Following three internal appointments — Otellini, Craig Barrett, and Andy Grove, “this time could be different,” thinks Freedman.
Without opining on the merits of the individual candidates, Freedman gives his take on the inside/outside decision:
In our view, an internal candidate pick would likely be viewed as ‘steady as she goes’. We surmise that his/her respective group will be validated as an important piece (and perhaps focal point) of Intel’s future. Conversely, an external pick would likely come from a mobile or customer-centric background. We highlight that the candidate’s age is relevant as Intel implements forced retirement at age 65. That said, market perception of a candidate at or beyond their late-50s may be viewed as less transformational.
Intel shares today are up 61 cents, or 2.8%, at $22.36.
after hours, Intel and other PC stocks are reacting to this bad news. Even though it has been well known. Question is how bad the numbers were baked in these stocks.
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4:33 PM
PCs: Q1 Shipments Plunge 14%, Worst-Ever Drop, Says IDC
By Tiernan Ray
Research firm IDC this afternoon reports that worldwide PC shipments totaled 76.3 million in Q1, according to its preliminary estimate, down 13.9% from the prior-year period, and well below the firm’s own forecast for a 7.7% droop.
“The extent of the year-on-year contraction marked the worst quarter since IDC began tracking the PC market quarterly in 1994,” says IDC.
According to IDC, shipments declined “significantly” in all regions. Some of the decline was “fading mini notebook shipments,” also known as the “Netbook.”
But “tablets and smartphones continue to divert consumer spending” as well, the firm said.
Said IDC analyst Bob O’Donnell,
At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market. While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market.
Microsoft‘s (MSFT) Windows 8 operating system went on sale last October 26th. Analysts have generally reported sales to be below their original expectations.
PC-related names are under pressure in late trading, with Microsoft shares off 19 cents, or 0.6%, at $30.09, Intel (INTC) stock down 11 cents, or half a percent, at $22.15, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) down 32 cents, or 1.4%, at $22, and Apple (AAPL) stock off 40 cents at $435.29. Dell (DELL) shares are unchanged at $14.21.
According to IDC’s data, HP’s shipments fell 24%, year over year, worldwide, to 11.98 million units, a 15.7% share, down from 17.7% a year earlier. The company still held the top spot. Shipments by Lenovo (0992HK) were flat with the prior-year Q1, at 11.7 million units, while the company’s share rose from 13.2% to 15.3%. Dell saw an 11% decline, to 9 million units.
In the U.S. market, Apple came in at third place, with 10% share, up slightly from its 9.4% share a year earlier, though shipments of 1.42 million estimated by IDC were 7.5% less than the year-earlier tally. Apple and Lenovo were the only share gainers in the U.S. market in the quarter, according to IDC.
Update: Gartner has now weighed in with its shipment tally, a slightly less terrible 79.2 million units, a decline of 11.2%, the first time totals have fallen below 80 million since Q2 of 2009, the firm observes.
I guess we will see what happens over next 12-18 months
I do know that. Intel was dram inventor and leader at one time. It knows how to make that and that also very well.
I am not sure it is a speculation. If Intel needs to dominate the mobile space and if mobile DRAM is a key component of the same, then I think it is very likely that Intel will have to get these memories from some where. If it is profitable to do so, then why not do that your self.
I know there are too many ifs. Analysis of all ifs lead to yes to all questions then I don't see this as a speculation.
Here is the link for the previous message. I thought I caaptured it.
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http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?type=click&mailingid=1318831&messageid=M_2800&databaseid=&serial=M_2800O1318831O1365020056&emailid=vijayc_us%40yahoo.com&userid=9163431&extra=&&&3000&&&http://seekingalpha.com/article/1318831-intel-10-year-roadmap-and-creative-destruction?source=email_rt_article_title
This article is very informative. Now I believe why Intel is building these fabs. These will be filled with memory and these processors(haswell).
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Intel:10-Year Roadmap And Creative Destruction
by Russ Fischer
Intel (INTC), as we all know is the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer by dollar volume. Intel's history has been a story of world changing success with a couple of tooth loosening speed bumps along the way. read more »
Up to now I never liked your approach of Intel having its own Smart phones and tablets. The reason was that with so many OEMs using your processor, the volume is so great relative .to use of processor in your own products.
Now I am of the same opinion that Intel does have to produce its own tablets/smart phone to be a viable player.
Intel and Apple will be going head in TV business shortly. The next battle will be in Smart phone/tablets. When that happens, Apple will never use its fabs or processors for its products. That day is not too far away.
I know we see it differently at the moment. The only time will tell.
I do agree with your logic. I do understand it as well. But there is no love lost between Intel and Apple. Let us see what happens when new CEO of Intel takes over in a near future.
I think Apple thinks it in invincible at the moment.
I still think strongly that Apple will not turn to Intel for fabbing chips. That is just me.
Rumors will turn in to reality if some one is willing to pay subscription fees to that site. And that is not worth it.
Still in my opinion it will be TSMC and not Intel. Apple is not going to spend time to port to TSMC now and change later.
May be he is ex Intel who was not treated well by Intel.
Here is another person trying to promote AMD over Intel. Yesterday we had news ARM taking over Intel in servers and Haswell being canceled now AMD. As far as headlines are concerned, there is no mention of that in the article. He takes a simple way as he does not know.
Question-are AMD apus are better suited for mobile devices? If true, why these are not every where.
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Does Intel's Haswell Have Power Issues?
by Tom Luongo
A report from Marketwatch yesterday has a note about JMP Securities analyst Alex Gauna downgrading Intel Corp (INTC) to market perform or neutral on the "discovery of technology roadmap issues that add to an already challenging outlook." The article at Marketwatch does not go any farther than that. But, while I was doing my daily crawl through the various technology forums - you know, so that I can have a clue as to what I'm talking about - I came across this post which further clarifies Gauna's reasoning. It also helps to confirm what has been lurking between the lines of most of the early leaks about Intel's upcoming Haswell CPU's, namely that things have not translated from design to implementation as well as we have been led to believe. read more »
How come you did not post your findings about Intel-Cisco deal on this forum.
In any case, it is here. I know Intel clearly stated that it is up to customers to announce these deals. Intel will announce any o fthese of its own.
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Intel-Cisco Foundry Deal Confirmed
by Ashraf Eassa
As my readers are well-aware, I spend a great deal of time covering Intel (INTC). It is a very complex business with a lot of moving parts, and I believe that there's always a new insight to be gleaned from studying the company and the newsflow surrounding it. However, I'm going to step out of my usual role in trying to understand and illuminate certain parts of the business and step into the role of an investigative journalist. In particular, I believe that I have been able to confirm the rumored Intel foundry deal with Cisco (CSCO). read more »
Thanks.
Does any one know about this technology and how practical it is?
Thanks in advance.
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Will D-Wave Render Intel Obsolete?
by Charles Margolis
Last week I read an article about Lockheed Martin's D-Wave quantum computer, in the New York Times. A Strange Computer Promises Great Speed, by Quentin Hardy, is summarized by the paper as: "Lockheed Martin Harnesses Quantum Technology." The article left me wondering whether Lockheed Martin was getting into the computer business, and whether quantum computers have the potential to make today's computers look like typewriters. read more »
Stock market is a momentum play. Right now momentum is on ARMH side and not on Intel side. Detailed analysis has no room at the moment but things will change. When stock/market moves downward then momentum swings and it will be different.
Some heavy bullish activity in Intel's options.
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Real-time equity news U.S. stock market report
1257 ET 27March2013-Call option traders gear up for Intel rally --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shares of Intel Corp rose 16 cents to $21.92 in early afternoon trading on Wednesday and in the options market, bullish call activity is outpacing put activity ahead of its quarterly earnings slated for April 16. In all, 81,000 calls and 47,000 puts changed hands so far on Intel, according to Trade Alert.
Heavy traffic in June expiration calls near the start of the trading day suggests one strategist is positioning for Intel shares to rally during the next few months, said Interactive Brokers Group options analyst Caitlin Duffy.
More than 27,000 calls have changed hands at the June $23 strike versus open interest of 10,898 contracts and Duffy noted that it appears most of the volume was purchased at an average premium of 26 cents apiece, including the single-largest print of 15,988 calls traded. The bullish bet on Intel is working, with premium required to purchase the June $23 strike calls up more than 30 percent over the 26 cents in premium paid on Wednesday morning to stand at 35 cents each as of 11 a.m. EDT, she said. Profits are available on the strategy at June expiration if shares surpass the average breakeven point at $23.26. The April $22 and $23 strike calls are also seeing interest, said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Frederic Ruffy.
Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net
Interesting Read. If sucessful, it might lead Samsung to use Intel processors one day.
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http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/26/smartphone-wars-the-battle-for-third-place-has-got.aspx?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y
Smartphone Wars: The Battle for Third Place Has Gotten Interesting
By Doug Ehrman | More Articles | Save For Later
March 26, 2013 | Comments (7)
When Nokia (NYSE: NOK ) got a huge jump on its main competitors for the third-place spot in the smartphone wars by going to market months sooner, it looked as if Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT ) Windows was going to be the undisputed third operating system. The BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY ) 10 OS faced more delays, and a real fear existed that by the time the company's Z10 hit the U.S., it would be too little, too late. With Friday's long-awaited release getting BlackBerry into the fight, a new threat is lurking on the horizon.
While rumors of a new Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) -driven smartphone platform surfaced late in 2012, discussion of the new OS developed by a consortium including Samsung, Huawei, and other Asian telecoms has intensified of late. The new platform, dubbed Tizen, is being developed to address a very real flaw that exists at the overlap of Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG ) Android and the Asian smartphone market. Given the critical nature of this market, its introduction is bad news for Microsoft, BlackBerry, and even for Google. The battle for third, and maybe even for the entire market, is by no means determined as things stand.
The first-mover advantage
Last fall, Nokia and Microsoft got a huge jump on the market by being the first of the No. 3s to market by signing a critical deal with China's largest wireless provider. With 700 million users in that network, Nokia's Lumia 920T was well positioned to provide a realistic alternative to Android and iOS that could take advantage of the structural peculiarities of the Chinese market -- most Chinese users are upgrading from 2G to 3G and use a different protocol that Nokia specifically addressed in many of its handsets, specifically the TD-SCDMA network.
Since that victory, the company has introduced cheaper versions of its smartphone specifically intended to target emerging markets such as Africa. Microsoft continues to build out its ecosystem, and as more Windows Phones head to market, both companies are positioned to benefit. Ultimately, when BlackBerry announced that the Z10 wouldn't hit U.S. shelves until late March, it seemed Nokia had third placed locked up.
BlackBerry finally comes to the U.S.
Last Friday, BlackBerry finally brought the Z10 to the U.S. for sale. The release of the new device lacked the fanfare you recently saw when Samsung unveiled the new Galaxy S4 . Unfortunately for fans and investors, BlackBerry seems to be going through a bit of an identity crisis, not really targeting business users, but not fully appealing to individuals, either. "I expect that we're going to hit the ground running," said Frank Boulben, the company's chief marketing officer, citing "substantial pent-up demand." If such demand exists, it's likely to be from the business community, making the current "Keep Moving" ad campaign a little hard to follow.
It remains to be seen if BlackBerry can take a meaningful role in the smartphone wars or if the company will be relegated to the role of a historical legend whose time has passed. If it can regain some relevance, the potential stock performance could be substantial.
New kid on the block
While the new Tizen OS has not even been officially released -- Samsung is expected to unveil a high-end smartphone that uses the platform by the end of the summer -- it's already getting a lot of ink. At the core of Tizen is the reality that Google doesn't command the same loyalty or usage that other Asian options do in that region. Android has been a free and workable solution for Asian smartphone needs, but in many cases, the manufacturers also include a user interface that circumvents most of Android's functionality. This creates the proverbial lose/lose scenario.
Under this construction, Google isn't making any money because these devices essentially work around the native functionality that drives users to search and other Google apps. The local search engines are unable to really integrate functionality into smartphones that rely on Android, meaning that users receive an experience that lacks optimization. Lastly, because all of these manufacturers are reliant on Google, they can negotiate better terms for themselves with the local market. The need for an alternative is obvious and being addressed with the aid of Intel, one of the point developers of Tizen.
With the new OS, all of these problems can be addressed. This does mean, however, that Google is suddenly facing some real competition in that part of the world. The news is probably worst for BlackBerry, which needs another obstacle like it needs cancer. Just as Microsoft is expanding its relationships with Windows, Nokia may consider creating a Tizen smartphone, but in all cases, the race for third has become far more complex and interesting. It's too soon to call this battle, but investors should watch carefully, because the fates of all players may come into play.
When it comes to dominating markets, it doesn't get much better than Intel's position in the PC microprocessor arena. However, that market is maturing, and Intel finds itself in a precarious situation longer term if it doesn't find new avenues for growth. In this premium research report on Intel, our analyst runs through all of the key topics investors should understand about the chip giant. Click here now to learn more.
If media companies are working with Intel then it must be worthwhile to wait for this. It just can't be another Comcast or direct TV.
Intel knows this as well.
I know what you are saying. There are a few OEMs who would use these ARM chips in extract better prices from Intel or reduce their dependence upon Intel.
I do agree these ARM devices will have difficult time competing against Intel.
Here is a view of servers from one brokers.
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AMCC, CAVM, ARMH, INTC, AAPL: Evercore Ponders 64-Bit Prospects (Update)
By Tiernan Ray
Evercore Partners tech analyst Patrick Wang today offers up clients some notes from his trip through Silicon Valley last week, ranging across a number of semiconductor names.
ARM Holdings (ARMH) may benefit, he thinks, as Apple (AAPL) “will introduce the first 64-bit ARM-based chip this year,” according to his conversations (he doesn’t say from where he derives that notion.) “This bodes well for ARMH as v8 designs drive richer royalty rates.” Wang doesn’t elaborate on whether he’s expecting an iMac, a laptop, or a resuscitation of the server line at Apple.
“The ramp of big.LITTLE parts at multiple vendors (Samsung, MTK, HiSilicon, etc) in 2H13 will also help given the royalty adder and sheer number of shipped cores.” Wang has an Overweight rating on ARM shares and a $50 price target.
Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC), which he rates Overweight, with a $13 price target, showed him a demo of its “X-Gene” server processor, based on ARM’s architecture, which he thinks should “cement their lead in this nascent market.” He also talked to Cavium (CAVM) about their “Project Thunder” silicon, which may sample by the first quarter of next year and could be “the third legitimate player for 64-bit LP [low power] server chips in 2014.”
Wang thinks server chip trends are shaping up a little better for Intel (INTC) at the moment than some might think:
Our checks indicate stable and more robust Romley trends through March, perhaps driving upside to generally low investor expectations. This server strength appears somewhat broad-based, covering Cloud / direct as well as more traditional Enterprise customers. While a positive for VLTR (VLTR) 1Q trends, our LT concerns remain. We also heard about recent price cuts to AMD (AMD) Opteron in order to keep up with INTC. As we previously wrote (note), AMD’s x86 Opteron roadmap may be nearing its end.
He rates Intel shares Equal Weight with a $22 price target.
Lastly, he sees Broadcom, his “top pick” among chip makers, as benefitting from both Samsung Electronics and Apple phone introductions this year:
Our checks continue to indicate a back-end loaded year for AAPL (OW, $461.91, covered by R. Cihra) phone and tablet product launches. This as a catalyst for BRCM and will start in 2Q13 as phones use a BCM4334 rev (not 4335 like GS4) and tablets adopt BCM4324 (MIMO). Notably, this enhances the sizeable ongoing Samsung GS4 ramp which began in 1Q13.
He rates Broadcom shares Overweight with a $40 price target.
Update: Wang, in response to an email request, clarifies that he thinks Apple will use 64-bit ARM cores not in servers or desktops but in phones and tablets this year:
The key advantages of going to 64b is that most enterprise and server class applications are coded in 64b rather than 32b. I think there’s a good chance we see 64b chips in devices later this year. I’m not expecting them to adopt 64b ARM chips in their desktop or notebook line-up… perhaps a hybrid / convertible device bridging the Ultrabook and iPad in 2H14.
Update 2: ARM Holdings director of marketing Ian Thornton was in town today and was kind enough to stop by the Barron’s offices. We talked a little bit about 64-bit in mobile devices, which he said was not as crazy as it might sound. There are decent reasons one might include such capability in phones and tablets, though he had nothing specific to say about Apple.
For one thing, there isn’t much of a power hit from a 64-bit device, he argues, supporting Wang’s take on the subject.
“You need some extra registers for the addressing, but it’s not dramatically more” in terms of resource consumption versus 32-bit, from a thermal standpoint, says Thornton.
“You wouldn’t want to do it in a thoughtless way, but it can certainly be done” he said of inclusion in mobile devices.
In terms of advantages, there could be a cost benefit to any vendor shipping both mobile devices and traditional desktop and server devices, to having silicon standardized on 64-bit, rather than building or purchasing silicon for 32-bit and 64-bit as distinct parts.
Also, the limit on memory addressing with 32-bit is 4 gigabytes, and with 64-bit, not only could mobile devices move beyond 4 gigs — a stretch, it’s true, when today’s smartest smartphones max out at 2 gigs — but they could also combine RAM addressing with support for “memory-mapped I/O,” says Thornton, such as having dedicated registers for peripherals support. That could certainly be useful in some mobile devices, Thornton imagines.
This article offers some potential dates for these ARM devices.
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ARMH: Pondering the 64-Bit Server Future
By Tiernan Ray
ARM Holdings (ARMH) director of marketing Ian Thornton was in town today and was kind enough to stop by the Barron’s offices. We talked a bit about one of the next substantial frontiers for the company and its partners, 64-bit memory addressing, which is most likely to show up in server and equipment products, although Thornton also had some thoughts on 64-bit in mobile devices, which you can read in an earlier post.
ARM’s 64-bit architecture is coming with the “Cortex A50” series, which now exists in microprocessor designs designated “A53? and “A57.” To give you a sense of the timeline, licenses started to be signed with partners two years ago, and ARM has only lately “taped out” its first microprocessor designs. “They’ve gotten to the Verilog stage, but they’re not quite at the Netlist stage at this point,” says Thornton.
That would imply first samples of chips from partners sometime toward the end of this year, with volume production in 2014, notes Thornton.
The leading partners signed so far are startup Calxeda, ST-Microelectronics NV (STMPR), Broadcom (BRCM), Samsung Electronics (005930KS), and the semiconductor design unit of China’s Huawei, which makes equipment in addition to mobile devices.
There will be a cost and a power savings from the up-front price of these devices as well as the performance they enable in servers and equipment, said Thornton. At this point, though, it’s difficult to quantify all that relative to Intel (INTC) Xeon server processors or Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Opteron parts because none of the partners has produced a part yet. X86 rules the majority of volume of server shipments today. (Mind you, AMD is also in the ARM camp, see below.)
One can make an analogy to Intel‘s “Atom” chip for mobile devices, in comparison to ARM-based smartphone chips based on the “Cortex A9” style parts. Atom takes three times the number of transistors to implement functional blocks that perform similar workloads, a sign of being less efficient than ARM-based designs, for example, contends Thornton. And the Intel x86 architecture uses the “variable length instruction word” approach, making it harder to streamline aspects of what are “monolithic” server processors, in his words.
But “that’s just an analogy,” and not really a fair comparison until 64-bit silicon appears, says Thornton.
His larger point about the competition between Intel and AMD and ARM partners is that the Intel server world is monolithic in its overall approach.
“Today, in some cases, you’ve got just 10% of Xeon being used” in a server, contends Thornton, because the bottleneck is in other parts of the system. If, for example, a server is doing streaming video, and it is mostly passing through bits from an external memory system, then between the time waiting for those bits to come off of a wire, and sending them out to the Internet, the microprocessor itself may not have a lot of work to do.
That, says Thornton, suggests that it may be possible for the entire collection of partners — there are 17 licensees of 64-bit ARM, and parties such as Nvidia (NVDA) have talked about getting into servers in a big way — could provide specialized parts that fit the job for different kinds of servers.
“It’s almost like an application-specific integrated circuit [ASIC],” quipped Thornton, although in that sense it seems more like an “application specific standard product [ASSP],” I suggested, though in reality such a system-on-a-chip(SOC) might not really be either.
Of course, there remain those niggly little details: Software. That huge chunk of the server market running on x86 still uses a lot of legacy applications, such as back-office financial software, even though some workloads have shifted to newer Internet-style applications. Thornton says that when customers tell large application providers such as SAP AG (SAP) or Oracle (ORCL) that they want to run their apps on an ARM-based server, the natural response from the software giants might be “what’s in it for,” when it comes to all the expense involved in porting software to ARM. Still, he thinks that “eventually everyone comes together to do what’s right for the industry,” which, in ARM’s view, includes moving to ARM processors, obviously.
Notes Thornton, there is the open-source software project called Linaro, involving upward of 200 engineers from ARM and its partners, that is helping to standardized Linux for ARM in a variety of contexts, including networking and other equipment.
ARM shares today are up $1.35, or 3.4%, at $41.45.
Update: Note that I failed to mention above that AMD is also making a push into ARM-based server chips. The company last year bought micro-server designer SeaMicro and has talked extensively about its intentions for ARM-based systems.
The following sentence does concern me. This will decrease Intel profits. But I am sure Intel has no choice to start with.
I am not expecting you to defend any one position. Intel owns the IP which goes into these NAND technology. I believe there 2-3 plants which are used to make these flash devices.
How much Intel owns, I am not sure myself?
Intel will never ever enter DRAM business. It left that long time back. It in fact invented DRAM business.
Intel and Micron already have joint venture called IM Inc. So even if there is additional demand for memory why would Intel do this.
I understand all this rationale on our parts not to trust these analysts who change their tune like weather.
My point here was that the stock help up well relative to other semis. It has a support around $21.00 unless Intel disappoints with its Q2 guidance.
There was an upgrade today.
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March 21 (Reuters) - Intel Corp :
* FBR Capital raises target price to $23 from $22; rating market perform
Some speculation on the part of writer. Veryhard to believe that it will be delayed.
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http://www.tgdaily.com/hardware-brief/70323-intel-shilly-shallies-over-ceo-spot
Intel shilly shallies over CEO spot
Posted March 20, 2013 - 04:19 by a staff writer
Intel has decided that there is no hurry getting itself a nice shiny new CEO, according to the strokers of beards and people in the know at analyst outfit Piper Jaffray.
Paul Otellini is being put out to pasture in mid-May and the debate has so far been about if he is to be replaced by an insider or an outsider.
But Piper Jaffray believes the decision on a new chief has been delayed, something it thinks is jolly silly.
In a research note, Piper Jaffray analyst Gus Richard wrote that Intel needs a new CEO fast to take it beyond the traditional PC market and boldly go where no chip maker has gone before.
Part of the problem is not that the chipmaker can’t find anyone to rule them but they have some rather good candidates and cannot decide.
Richard claims that Intel has narrowed down CEO candidates to two internal and one external, but the final decision appears to be slipping.
According to CNET, Intel has narrowed the search to Brian Krzanich, Intel executive vice president and chief operating officer, Dadi Perlmutter, executive vice president and general manager of the Intel Architecture Group and chief product officer of Intel, and Sanjay Jha, former CEO of Motorola Mobility.
Richard wishes that the Intel airheads would hurry up and decide because the outfit needs to make some major decisions about future businesses, such as contract manufacturing.
Chipzilla said that it wants to have a replacement by the time CEO Paul Otellini retires in mid-May, meaning the company could be in limbo for two months and the pole is getting lower all the time.
Intel spokesperson Chuck Mulloy insists that the process is under way and there are no glitches. So far no white smoke has been seen on the roof of Intel HQ.
Richard points out that without a CEO, Intel is a rudderless ship driven more by external forces than internal decisions.
Chipzilla needs to work out fast if the company will licence ARM and improve its ability to be a foundry.
Any major decision like this will have to wait for a new CEO. The fact that the decision looks to be delayed is not a positive sign.
Some analysts, and the media, are trying to talk up Intel as a chip foundry and seem desperate, against all evidence, that it should be selling chips to Apple.
Read more at http://www.tgdaily.com/hardware-brief/70323-intel-shilly-shallies-over-ceo-spot#E1bldAS4iZ2pCWup.99
Can some one comment here? If Intel needs these memories technology or the capacity, then what is being used for CT/CT+. I have a hard time believing that Intel is not in a position to build these App processor with memory on top of that.
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Gesture on the part of the writer. This is one way to use the fab capacity. But the writer is thinking it will bea new factory. That part may not make sense.
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