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iPhone story on CNN's Reliable Sources. eom
Bootz, I have some Apples, enough to take into earnings. I will decide on Tuesday or Wednesday whether to buy some more. As you may recall, our self-managed IRA's are about 12% AAPL, down from ~40% after the keynote - and we sold at a bit over $96.
Tex, so was mine :). Now cash is by far my largest position, at ~65%.
Bootz,
What % of your Portfolios is in AAPL?
FYI - Our AAPL position had grown to 40% of our IRAs over the past week. I sold a bunch of it this morning @ 96.02 and 96.13, taking the position down to ~ 13%.
Years late?? Whatever Blake.
Disclosure - PF was 33% AAPL before the MacWorld Keynote. Grew a little over the past couple of days:) Sold some and took it down to a more reasonable but still hefty 13% of the PF.
We'll have to wait and see who buys it.
Sounded like part of the cost of doing business with Cisco re: iPhone was to agree to not do VOIP under the iPhone name. No way Apple Inc can agree to that.
Blake:
MSFT is years behind- and the customers who have to suffer with MSFT mobile are going to be pissed, as are handset makers who have gone with it.
Game set match Blake. It is over, but go ahead and enjoy a Zune *g*.
Bootz
Apple sayz they are shooting for a 1% handset market share. Commpetitor?
You tell me. Will Apple follow the iPod path and eventually release phones for most segments of the handset market? I dunno.
So, anyone holding any AAPL?
From seekingalpha site
Analyst stuff from Dow Jones Newswires posted at the link below.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23171192
DOW JONES: Apple Shares Hit High But Analysts See Room To Grow
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
January 10, 2007 2:44 p.m.
By Carmen Fleetwood
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc. (AAPL) shares soared to an all-time high Wednesday following the company's long-awaited announcement that it would enter the cellphone market. But for many on Wall Street the stock price still has room for growth.
Among those raising price targets for the shares was Bear Stearns & Co. analyst Andrew Neff, who increased his calendar 2007 target 25% to $125. Meanwhile, a slew of other analysts reiterated targets in the $100 range. Bear Stearns does seek to do business with Apple.
But consider that the valuation for Apple shares is already significantly above its rival computer makers and other companies. While Apple is in a unique position with the strength of its iPod business and even its anticipated success with other consumer products, it will be incumbent for the company to show serious growth with its new products in order to support its valuation.
The median of price targets on Apple stock reported to Thomson Financial is $99.50. Apple's recent 2007 price-to-earnings ratio was 33.52 compared with 21.77 for computer makers. Apple shares reached a new high of $97.80, surpassing the previous high of $93.16 set on Nov. 27.
Recently, Apple shares were at $96.23, up 3.9% on volume of 86.1 million compared with average daily volume of 27.5 million. The company's market capitalization rose nearly 3.4 billion.
"At this point, there is no change in our price target of $99" based on calendar 2007 estimates, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said in a research note. But Wu has an "upward bias" in the calendar 2008 price target "given new product momentum." The analyst has no conflicts of interest to report.
Potentially Bigger Stage For Apple Products
While the $499 to $599 price tag for the iPhone was offputting to some, many analysts believe the ease of use will give Apple's cellphone a significant edge over current models in the same category that offer the same music, video and other features. They expect later models from Apple to be more appealing to a broader audience with a lower price point.
"Given its strong product pipeline and continued Mac traction, Apple remains a great market penetration story; with less than 3% PC and 0% handset share, we believe Apple will be successful in generating widespread adoption and remains the best growth story in tech," Credit Suisse analyst Robert Semple said in a research note. The firm provided investment banking services to Apple over the past 12 months.
Others note that while it received far less attention, there is a good chance for strong sales of the Apple TV product due out in February. It will cost $299.
"With the Apple TV and iPhone devices...Apple is well positioned to leverage its growing user base and to add formidable revenue streams," said Steve Lidberg, an analyst with Pacific-Crest The firm makes a market in the stock.
By Carmen Fleetwood, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5216
The iPhone is a mini-book/tablet/pocket computer, isn't it?
It certainly seems more than an expansion of the iPod operating platform .
Gartenberg
http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg/
iPhone Bottom Line | January 9, 2007 11:56 PM
People seem to be linking to this but missing the rest of what I wrote, so bottom line.
1. The iPhone is the most beautiful and functional phone I have ever seen. Apple totally overcame all my issues with music phones and there's an elegance that must be seen to be appreciated. First time I held it, I was speechless for more than a few seconds.
2. Apple unveiled what is probably the most hyped product... Well ever. And despite high expectations, they knocked the ball out of the park. In my opinion they exceeded the hype which was totally insane pretty high.
3. Yes, I think it's not perfect, but let's be clear, the innovation and design outweigh any issues by an order of magnitude, perhaps several. I look forward to leaving my carrier of more than a decade in June to pick one of these up.
Bottom Line. Home Run. Period.
yofal, story not avaliable
You are such a nice and considerate person. Thank you.
Just lose it dude
I also request that you remove the Taser graphic from your posts. It is off topic and has no place here. I'll give ya till tomorrow and then I'll ignore you. Would be nice to have your AAPL take, but I won't look at that shite with your every post.
Thanks in advance
Ron
coreguy wrote:
"I've often said that I am long AAPL for the foreseeable future EXCEPT if I thought he would quit, retire, get sick, or...get pushed out by the options backdating thingie. So, I stayed long and it's been quite a day."
There have been three times since the Fifty dollar range that I have sold all of my AAPL - twice in the pre-market session. All of those were related to the options backdating issues. Each of those times I bought back within a couple of days to a week.
It is the only cloud on the horizon, Steve's future, and I am not sure I will sell again because of it - that does not mean I won't have trailing stops on a portion of our AAPL positions, but I think the Apple Inc. is going to be a growth monster for as far down the road as I can see (may not be very far).
Steve's departure, voluntary or otherwise, would have an immediate impact, but I think I would have to consider it as being a potential buying opportunity - depending on what happened after that. If it were options related, he could conceivably get tossed from his executive position but st
How many million iPhones do you think they will sell in 2007?
How many hundreds of thousands of Apple TV thingies?
How much of that is currently in revenue and earnings estimates?
I am very pleased.
Our IRA's were close to 1/3 AAPL going into the keynote.
Did I say I was pleased? I think its going to be a great year.
Still nervous about Steve and options, though.
<Get ready for an AAPL blast off>
Finished preparations last week at a little internet cafe a block bit off this beach. A bit overweight AAPL, we are right now.
I have some apples, but sold about 1/2 of them back.....let me check so I give you the correct day - it was December 7th.
It pleases me that AAPL has been dawdling
consolidating, whatevering in the low 90's here. I suspect Apple will have a pretty fair quarter (stellar for those who can't read what I wrote right , and that there may be a product intro or two of interest in January.
I think some folks might say, at that point, "you know, those analysts who started their last round of target share price raising back in November, well those boys and girls might just have known what they were talking about it."
OTOH, I have been following the price with trailing stop-loss orders cause the position is so freaking big now and because:
the consumer may be a little tapped out
specially those with sub-prime mortgages
the options back-dating thingie is not settled
and having those stop-loss orders reduces my anxiety level.
The last item there is a good thing.
Ron, off for two weeks in Mexico come December 15.
Changed my mind on ADBE in the short term,
Sold it at 40.01 (was in at 27.02), put proceeds into more AAPL for what I hope is a run for the $100-$110 level, or sumpin like that.
EDIT - paid 90.85 for this morning's AAPLs, as I recall.
<Hope Amazon is an indicator>
Most of all, I would like confirmation what we saw in Mac sales in the most recent past quarter - robust YoY growth in units sold.
In 2007 we have UB Adobe to hopefully drive Mac Pro sales, we have the Leopard, we have new consumer products (pod and phonePod?) and who knows what else.
Last year those who sold in early January and waited to buy back in did well. What will happen this year? I suspect the chart will not look like this next year - especially the Jan-July part - but I certainly could be wrong.
Anyone other than Fi go to a store that sells Mac's or iPods today? How'se about a report or two.
I did not go.
Here is what I had as of yesterday. I added LMC this morning (not reflected below), to get a bit more zinc exposure.
Oh, yeah - I am pretty happy today :)
Precious Metals 21.3%
AUY 8.2%
AZK 5.3
GLD 3.8%
SLW 4.0%
Other Metals 14.3%
GPXM 10.7%
MMG 3.6%
Energy 15.2%
CCJ 4.2%
DPTR 7.0%
CHK 4.0%
And a few others
AAPL 17.6%
ADBE 6.1%
SBUX 4.4%
Cash 21.1%
Turkey Day Switcher
On behalf of AAPL holders everywhere,
I give thanks to you.
Ron
<Is this just smoke and mirrors, or are the numbers coming out somewhere showing a gangbusters xmas?>
I think it could be some of both :). I think this will be a record-breaking quarter. I also think there are some new product expectations that are partially responsible for the share price. There has also been the wind of the equity markets filling the sails.
Then we have folks like Fi out there selling the boxes, ya know. Don't forget that.
Jim, here is my holiday holdings list in the accounts in which we purchase individual equities
Positions in order of size within each area:
Metals - GPXM, AUY, AZK, SLW, GLD, MMG
Energy - DPTR, CHK, CCJ
Other - AAPL, ADBE and SBUX
Overall AAPL is the largest position, coming in at about 18% of portfolio. Had to sell some back in the 70's to get it below 30% :). Bought ADBE with proceeds, which is up a bit over 50% since then.
I think those are the horses that we'll ride into 2007, for the most part.
Annie, you got it. I did not.
Market share
low for MSFT
That is my guess for all three points in time.
I estimate
That Apple Computer's share price will be higher in January of 2008 than it is now, or than it will be in January of 2007.
That and a couple of bucks will get you a small Starbucks drip coffee :)
I appreciate the AAPL purchase point
thread. I bought - hell, I'd have to go back and look it up, but it was late in the year and AAPL was around 42-43 and I bought and it didn't back to that for a long time :).
I was out when AAPL took its big haircut, but I did buy in April of 2003 - 400 shares @14 and 14.01. Wish I had held it forever. I have made a bunch of money on Apple Computer, and think I will make a lot more.
I am facing a similar decision with ADBE now, which is one of the reasons I appreciate this thread. The case for ADBE (with the exception of it being cheap at 27) seems to be the same as it was when I bought at 27.something back in July. I have decided to hold, though taking some profits was tempting.
I owe thanks to JimisJim for pointing out somewhere that he thought ADBE was cheap and a roaring buy at that price. There are more of you to whom I owe thanks, and I appreciate each of you. Hope you have been able to make some money on some of my picks back when I used to write about them - or least hope you haven't lost money on them.
Dilleet
I am here. I am happy with today. How are you doing?
Board Poll
I am hopelessly old fashioned.
I have a mobile phone. It does phone for me - can do other things, but I don't do them.
I do not own an iPod, but we use Kathy's with speakers when we travel together - nice to have our own music in hotel rooms.
If I did public transit, I might do Books on iPod, but I drive and I listen to National Public Radio news or to a jazz/blues station.
I may be looking for another mobile phone provider cause Verizon, despite its spiffy ads, has a sucky network here - OTOH, I can sign up for Mexico use for limited time periods, which means I can call my parents on Christmas day without too much trouble :).
<How many iPods did they sell in its 1st quarter, 1st year?>
Way different situation. iPods only worked with Macintosh computers.
That is not to say that Apple could not screw up initial supply numbers - but haven't they usually screwed up on the side of not producing enough units rapidly enough.
If these phones take off, they may do so quickly. The iPod has paved the path, greased the skids and so on.
We'll see. I hope it is not enough rather than too many
12 million optimistic?
Without knowing the time period during which the 12 million will be sold, it is impossible to say.
I think the phone market is big
I think Apple could get a share of it
I think even a small share can turn into big bucks
I think I want to benefit from that as a shareholder.