Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
How about shareholder value? Does that matter to the Ariad corporation? Last time I checked, shareholders are the reason Ariad is still alive.
Fortunately I bought in cheap, but some are stuck with dead money for a long time. At a certain point, you have to be fair to the very people that have funded your handsome salary (and stock options)for 16 years.
Like I said, prob best for the Aria board.
At the sake of beating a dead horse here. Why say no partnership until after Rida news? That's the tactical error, imo. They should keep as much of 534 as they could. It may graduate them to whole different level.
Perhaps, I am over analyzing a bit here. Perhaps if you had as much invested in Araid as I do, you might as well.
I appreciate your input. That's why I came to Bio values instead of Aria board. An objective opinion.
To me it looks like some big players got the scoop that Aria was intending to do a secondary. There was some serious selling on Monday basically from the bell. Just like BTH, LOL! That news should have brought us to $4.50. No one who knows anything about sarcoma drugs would have sold on that BS headline. I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist here, but I have seen too many atrocities on wall street. Especially with these beloved little micro-bios.
Oh and BTH, in this challenged financing market, there are not too many micro-bios that are not overvalued diluted pigs. Have you seen HGSI? They have a 5 bil market cap. I think Aria is actually pretty sound with there pipeline and cash reserves right now.
No not at all. From a practical stand point, the offering was probably the right move. The problem stems from HB just telling us he saw no need for a secondary at this time. This time was not that long ago. You are the CEO, you couldn't have foreseen the Rida data being delayed and leading to a financing issue? I think I could have foreseen that and I'm not running Ariad. It's a credibility issue! Again!
1- What was the purpose in telling the world that there will be no partner until Rida data is released? Why are the two linked? You can look at it in two ways. Looking at it from the glass half full, maybe he knows the data is good and wants to wait and deal from strength as Kenyann pointed out before. Glass half empty, he doesn't want to get caught with his pants down and have to give way the ranch on 534 if Rida fails. Regardless, telling the world that he will not partner till final Rida data seems like a tactical error to me. I think he just "pegged" his own stock.
Let's see how things develop. Maybe he will surprise us with something positive sooner than I think. Perhaps some institutions will view this as a chance to accumulate on the cheap. If not, I think we could drift lower into the end of the year.
This is an issue for the Aria board. Thanks for your input.
Now those are the kind of responses I was hoping for! I remember you from the old days of the Yahoo board. How long you been following this company? Thanks for the response. I couldn't agree more. One more question, why the need to rush the offering so close to the Endo announcement? Shouldn't that have caused the PPS to appreciate in the coming weeks?
I'm not sure I get the "divine intervention" joke. Regardless, why would Berger say no partner with 534 until after final Rida data? What is the purpose of that? Isn't he basically telling the world there is really no reason to buy Aria right now because there is probably no significant news until possibly 5 months?
Then could you expound on a theory as to why He handled (and phrased) the dilution as he did? To me it was a seriously bad tactical error. He basically told the world that you can forget about Aria until 1Q2011. Perhaps, Aria with the successful Endo news and the possibility of a 534 partner, might have received some institutional interest going into the end of the year. Why would I buy now when the CEO just told me nothing going on till 2011? Market could correct and you could buy Aria @ a 20%-25% discount.
Dew
I asked a question on the Aria board as to why Berger said no 534 partner until after the release of the final Rida data. Why are the 2 interconnected? Wouldn't bad news on Rida weaken Aria's bargaining power with 534? Is it possible that MRK is a potential suitor for 534 , and is holding the data to try and get an upper hand? Any thoughts are appreciated.
Thanks
As I said, something other than Harv bashing BTH. I believe the purpose of this message board is to gain and share knowledge for the purpose of making useful (and profitable) investment decisions. As much as I despise the dilution and the manner in which it was handled, they are an unfortunate part of micro-bio investing. Harv certainly has some credibility issues, no doubt. Let's try and put your favorite sport (Harv bashing) aside for 5 minutes and come up with a logical theory as to the reasoning behind the after Rida-partner scenario.
Why did HB say there would be no 534 partnership until Rida news is released? What's the significance of the connection? Could it be that is MRK playing games delaying Rida in order to get the upper hand? Does anyone here think MRK is a valid candidate for a 534 partnership as well? I can't understand why they would not partner 534 until Rida final unless they knew it was positive. What does one have to do with the other? Wouldn't a negative on Rida compromise Aria's bargaining power? Now that they have enough $ to go out until 2012, why wait until after Rida? Looking for some insight, thanks.
It's getting a little quiet around here. We need some stimulating conversation other than the usual Harvey bashing.
Pipper
Can you think of any real news driven events coming before the end of the year that should drive the stock price?
I was thinking the same thing. Really no reason to rush in and buy right now. My bigger fear is that we start trending down into the the end of the year with the looming threat of increased capital gains. I'm still waiting to hear a reasonable excuse for this urgent need to dilute on Monday pm.
Do you think the 3.70 offering price will more or less provide us with a floor? If the big boys are willing to buy at that price, shouldn't that be a signal to the rest of the market?
Ok 1 for the "in agreement" pile. Any care to take the opposite side? Perhaps our moderator Don? Please someone convince me that the guy who's company I have way too much of my portfolio invested in is not a lying, incompetent egomaniac. I thought we were past this with this company. His track record so far makes me uncomfortable and a little nervous.
Can someone else comment on the timing of the dilution? Does the fact that it came out the same day as the Endo news bother anyone else? I would like someone else's opinion. Maybe I am making more of it than I should.
I'm not a huge fan of HB myself. He has some serious credibility issues. I wonder what Aria would look like with a different captain steering the ship. I really question the timing of the dilution. The same day as the Endo news? Come on Harv, give us shareholders a break and throw us a bone once in a while. Didn't you think the news would draw some interest. The same day? Why the rush? To me it had the feel of someone trying to get outta town why the gettin was good.
I hope he knows what he is doing when it comes to the value of a 534 partnership. He has claimed there was a lot of interest in 534 and that this is how we will be funded going forward (didn't Fitzgerald say he saw no no need for a dilution?). Then BANG, a 14% dilution haircut. HB makes owning Ariad very difficult to stomach at times. Strategically, I wouldn't question the dilution if he hadn't been saying something completely different. I have wished for a buyout because it takes him out of the equation. I think he has a bit of arrogant madman in him.
You were doing ok till the WAY overvalued comment. Can't agree with that at all. How much is Aria worth if HB decided to sell her as is today? If the shell game stops, everything is overvalued. This dilution sucks, but I think we will see 4's again sooner than you think.
In the midst of the last 2 days was the SUCCEED delay. Should this be of concern? Not much has been said about it.
And negative SUCCEED results would have forced him to negotiate with a gun to his head and give away the reanch. I hate the dilution but he prob did what was best for the COMPANY (not shareholders short term). Even a 30% chance of SUCCEED failure id too much for the CEO to chance destroying the company. I just don't understand why he didn't wait a lil a get some steam. The news yesterday should have pushed the stock over 5 fairly soon.
PPS doing pretty well considering the 3.70 floor
Isn't it amazing how everyone on message boards always seems to ring the bell at the exact top? I don't seem to be that talented. Congrats to BTH on a great trade.
You should have listened to yourself. Didn't you buy at the close on Friday? Let's see how fast the pps responds from this wonderful surprise. Maybe we get a little interest at this price.
I corrected my math in a later post. I think the 3.80 speaks for the floor. I think we recover prety quickly myself. Let's see how it goes this week.
Let's see how the stock price reacts tomorrow. Tough to defend HB tonight. I could use a drink and nice womping by the G-men tonight to help ease the pain. Biotech investing is surely not for the weak-hearted.
Middle of 2011 is 6 months away! I guess he didn't want to negotiate with a gun to his head again. Let's not forget he has alot more skin in the game than any of us. Long term, perhaps this was a decent strategic move. Short term it sucks! I think I might have to start thinking of revising my call sign to Aria2012 or maybe even 2013. LOL
Do we see 3.8 as a floor after this latest piece of "pulling the wool over ur eyes" news? Perhaps his thinking is that with the latest news, there will be some new interest and the stock price will be able to respond fairly well. Trying to find a bright spot here.
My mistake 16 mil is about 7% of the float which would explain the 3.8 tag in after hours. We will now have a float of approx. 126 mil. I don't like the timing of this one bit. It doesn't show alot of confidence in SUCCEED imo. We just released the Endo news, why not give it a couple of weeks to gather some steam. Maybe he has a few tricks up his sleeve. Here's an understatement for you, HB sure is a tough CEO to like running the company I have placed such a big bet on!
16 mil shares is what, about 12%-15% of the float. We are prob headed back to 3.50-3.60. Anyone disagree?
What conference was it that he said no reason for further dilution? Should we take it that this is a bad sign for the SUCCEED trial? This guy is unbelievable!!!!!!
Did you guys see the Reuters headline? It says: "Ariad-Merck cancer drug shows mixed results". When you click the story it says: "Ariad/Merck cancer drug impresses in study" Did I miss something here? Where are the results mixed? We are talking about people with life ending cancer here. I just don't get it.
You still "shorting the hell outta this puppy"?
Thats the first time since I have been trading that I had information before the masses. Too bad that I am boat loaded already. I would have bought more as well. Thanks for the great dd. Traders can play games as much as they like, we clear SUCCEED and this stock is going to take off.
Let's cut to the chase. Up or down on Monday AM? I say up.
Now there's an ARNA permabear!
I was mistaken. My apologies. Let's see what Monday brings.
Tremendous victory no. I do think we see a pop tomorrow. If I was holding at a high average, I would not be very comfortable. I agree that the euphoria on some of the other boards is overdone. Apparently you guys think it is done, so let's see what Monday brings.
I didn't get a chance to review the presentation. Was the data the same/better/worse as the abstract you posted here last month?
This endo find was your baby so I ask you what you think now.
Thanks
People can spin this anyway they like. ARNA was priced for death to Loc. This wasn't a death ruling, it still has a pulse. How strong a pulse can be debated. Some may contend that it was more favorable than others, but regardless it will be viewed as a favorable CRL on Monday am. That, along with a massive short interest, should make for an interesting trading day. Shorts should be as nervous this weekend as longs were going into the FDA ruling. Longs dodged a bullet. Obviously that's my opinion and I have backed it up with a decent size wager. I think we land somewhere in the mid 2's on Monday am. Soccer, Superfly and the rest of the ARNA permabears please let's hear your story.
Thanks, I figured as much. Any idea regarding how long they have to respond?
Does anyone know if ARNA has to respond/make public within 48 hours of receipt of a CRL? I thought I read this somewhere. What do you guys make of no mention today so far of anything from FDA?