Thanks for detailed explanation. But, please do not put too much weight on Trian's not selling of about its 10 million shares. As we are guessing/hoping, if Train will get the CEM's proprietary flame retardant technology at a huge discount price (let's say a saving more than $200M), then Train can easily walk away from its shares. It can be careless.
I've been holding CEM before the BK (of course, averaged down after BK). There were ample opportunities for Train to buy many shares if it wanted to get an investment loss. I remember CEM went down to $0.09 before BK, but Train didn't buy any single share. So, unless we know the fact that the entities of Train have bought many (say more than 20 million) shares during the fall from $2 to $0.02, the assumption of the Trian's play with shares to recover his investment loss in CEM is not valid.
If Train will get what it wants (e.g., flame retard tech), and the big institutions (i.e. CITI, etc.) have already gotten 5 to 10 times of initial investment and have been/will be soon gone away, then we, the poor average share holders, will hold an empty bag in air.
Frankly, I am still holding CEM with hope for a buyout (similar to the buyout of a chemical company (I forgot the name, but that was bought out by an Arab investment around the time when CEM filed the BK). I am more interested in a relationship of Ed Garden/Train/Qatar Holding LLC. I think an I-Hub member (JAVED?) mentioned about it sometime ago, which would be an interesting scenario.