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Why is China chasing African oil?
Nov 3 (Reuters) - Delegates from 48 African countries are attending the Nov. 3-5 China-Africa ministerial summit in Beijing.
Here is an overview of China's developing energy links with Africa:
GROWING DEMAND:
- In 2003, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest oil consumer after the United States.
- China says it will build up emergency strategic oil reserves of about 100 million barrels (16.2 million cubic metres) over the next five years.
- In October 2006, it confirmed it had begun pumping crude into tanks near its largest refinery, Zhenhai, in eastern Zhejiang province.
- China plans to complete tanks comprising the rest of its first phase -- in Aoshan in Zhejiang, Huangdao in Shandong, and Dalian in Liaoning province -- by the end of 2008.
AFRICAN OIL'S GROWING IMPORTANCE:
- A third of China's total crude imports comes from Angola, Sudan, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Chad and Nigeria.
- Bilateral trade between China and Africa is projected at $50 billion this year, and China has more than $6 billion of investments there, mostly in energy and infrastructure projects.
WAR-RAVAGED ANGOLA THE TOP SUPPLIER:
- Angola, sub-Saharan Africa's second largest oil producer after Nigeria, narrowly overtook Saudi Arabia to become China's top crude oil supplier in February 2006.
- From January to September 2006, Angola supplied 18,232,427 tonnes of crude, while Saudi Arabia supplied 17,998,17.
- Congo, China's sixth biggest supplier, sent 4,257,783 tonnes in the same period.
SECURITY AND EFFICIENCY DRIVE:
- Many analysts argue that China has overpaid for some of its oil investments. They say that shipping supplies from Africa or Latin America does not reduce China's energy vulnerability, since its navy is not the dominant power on the world's seas.
- In recent years, China has championed energy efficiency, passing new laws to cut wasteful consumption.
- It is backing domestic hydroelectric, nuclear and wind-power schemes, and attempting to curb growth in consumption of the plentiful, but polluting, coal that provides two thirds of its energy.
Sources: Reuters, The Council on Foreign Relations, www.cfr.org/publication/9557
Why I sold...?
On average, 50% of a stock's move is the overall trend of the market, 30% is due to the sector-- the remaining 20% is attributed to good stock picking.
-- the trust sector, involves more than just individual investors. Think, mutual and hedge funds with long positions in both trusts and stocks with the potential of becoming trusts. Think, of the redemptions they must be inundating with. Think, about the liquidation that is involved with covering the cash demand.
-- the 3 phases of a companies life; growth, maturity and death.
Companies that have reverted to the trust sector were mature with possibly one foot in the grave.
As an investor you want growth, that it, that's all.
jmho.
"commodities money will shy away from Canada and leave the country poorer for it...."
yes, in the short-term...
but where else in this world can you invest in great growth stocks that are levered to natural resources, and with the added bonus that the currency will continue to trend in the opposite direction to the US$ ... ???
no need to have many thoughts-- best not to have any at all when it comes to trading.
trust candidates like CR, PXE and RER are being murdered-- and the outdoor temperatures are continuing to drop.
look for a pivot point over the next day or two.
okay, against my better judgement I (re)bot FCP, FO and OIL
...and in case you were wondering I do have gold stocks in my portfolio-- my biggest position is in Bema (I've been a big buyer over the last 3-days) I also like LSG an awful lot ... so I've finally capitulated.
...and I'll explain my philosophy a little later on...
Here's a chart of Fording Coal-- I almost bought this yesterday ... I consider this a perfect example of a very reliable classic bottom, and unfortunately it missed-- which is rare.
Note the large amount of volume yesterday, this could of been easily mistaken as a break-out candidate.
well, ugh, there's a little bit more to it than just that.
yesterday, the Canadian finance minister announced some changes in the tax rules that would effectively end the !!!<I can't even say the words>
anyway, this all transpired after yesterdays close-- but before, about 15-minutes before last call, I loaded up heavily on gas weighted juniors, you know, the ones that trade at a slight premium because of their potential at being acquired by < left blank intentionally>.
The weather's cold-- inventories are actually hugging the lower end of the supply ban, did I mention the weather's cold?
This trade should of worked, but it didn't. I sold everything, even my uraniums at the open this morning-- I sold them so hard that etrade was even starting to reject my orders, figuring maybe I was panicking.
anything to do with energy-- GONE.
ugh, I did panic-- but the trick is to be the first to do so, nevertheless I prevailed, got through the morning with minor losses-- thankfully.
I'm cashed up-- ready to play the bounce because it got ugly by the afternoon, too ugly-- because I'm actually very bullish on gas. Just think, a reduction of 38% yoy in drilling and there's every indication that were going to get a cold winter. What surprised me the most was the collapse in drilling stocks.
Anyway, you were wondering why Eldorado Gold was soft...?
Currency Overview: Expect a Big Week for the Greenback
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/19479
...according to my wife, no...!
...and getting back to Ullrich-- like I was saying, he's in a unique situation, a one-time event, a fat tail, where something unexpected goes to the extreme. It's something you wouldn't see in Baseball, but I think that's because you can still win a championship on mineral water alone.
What I like best about the bike is that it has that relaxed euro feel to it-- and it's not just another Taiwanese carbon knock-off you see everywhere nowadays.
It's a 2003 model that I got on the cheap, it's optioned out with an Ultegra gruppo which works as well as my Dura Ace equipped bikes, but nevertheless my plan is to "Italianize" it with that new Campy Record group. I've already got a Fulcrum (Racing 1) wheelset (with a ti freehub body) hanging on the wall waiting for the rest of the parts.
It'll look insane when I'm finally done with it.
lol...!
don't forget, I'm a speculator by trade <vbg>
That said, it's a perfect storm-- it's unique in respect to the circumstances, a so-called "fat tail."
Obviously that would literally blow up the entire pro cycling infrastructure and give it the clean start to reconstruct everything that some are dreaming of.
I think the answer goes back to that Outdoor Magazine article you posted last summer where it said that all promising young athletes will have to have an extensively documented health history before ever being allowed to draw an income from professional sports.
They also need to take the profit motivation away from the middleman (manager/DS) and the (semi)-nationalisation (and it's headed that way all on its own) governed by a publicly funded institution-- a partnership between the state and private business.
It won't happen overnight, but that's my best guess to what's going to happen in the not so distant future ... if it doesn't follow that route, then we'll continue to see less interest in the sport (just recently German tv dropped coverage) until it finally shrinks to nothing.
Put it to you this way, I've never worn the yellow Livestrong bracelet-- but I own a LeMond "Victoire" (Ti/carbon) road bike.
I see this thing as a collectors item, handmade in the USA
It's my favorite bike.
L... it goes back to when Fuente said that he was surprised at which riders were fingered and which ones weren't-- some of the riders that were excluded from the TdF he didn't even know ... but because of the doctor/client confidentiality rules he didn't have to say a word.
Now getting back to Ullrich, does Jan sound like a person who likes riding a bicycle...?
Take Gilberto Simoni for instance, here's man you can find racing both cyclocross and MTB in the off season. Here's a man who travels the world over looking for the coolest roads (in the off season). Here's a man who finds himself in California riding up and down those mountains with lowly club riders, (in the off season).
Does Ullrich have the same passion for cycling as Simoni...?
Then why doesn't he just retire...?
Think about it, he was accused of doping just before the tdf. The Spanish investigation took the summer off, giving plenty of time for the media to "execute" Ullrich, ending his endorsement deals, his tv deals and losing his cycling contract-- all without the final judgement of due process...???
fwiw, we'll never see him ride a bike again, he's even layed off his staff-- although he insists he hasn't retired.
What's happening is that he's getting good advice from a lawyer, if not a team of lawyers-- he will not sign with any team, but if he does it'll be for peanuts (because he loves to ride a bike?) no but because he's showing monetary proof that his earnings have been diminished by his needlessly damaged reputation-- all this starts to add up in terms of litigation.
My best guess is that he'll walk away with about a $100 million in damages-- without ever having to turn the crank in anger.
surprise, surprise-- gold kicked up above $600
certainly not telegraphed on Friday by the performance of gold stocks.
yeah, I seen it live the other day-- I usually have Bloomberg playing on my tv (way in the background with the sound off) just in case I need a reason to react to something. <vbg>
...about the LeMond interview [competitive radio], simply fantastic-- he was interviewed for over an hour, yet it went by sooo fast. Interesting fellow, too bad we don't hear more from him during the OLN broadcast of the tdf.
thanks for posting the link.
L... most of this stuff is now moving faster than I can understand.
now this...?
Operation Puerto: Civil Guard implicated in public document falsification?
By Antonio J. Salmerón
[excerpted]
Spanish judge Maria Luisa Alvarez will soon hear a lieutenant of the Civil Guard about alleged public document falsification in the doping affair around Dr. Eufemiano Fuentes, revealed by the military institution last spring
...and in the following story
Botero happy about clearing, wants damages
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2006/oct06/oct30news
...as you were saying? -- messy.
more like "delayed"...?
or maybe they're trying to save whatever "face" they have left, possibly to ward off legal repercussions.
I'd be curious to see whether Ullrich is doing the DNA test to unquestionably establish his innocence in order to sue the living crap out of these nice people!?
One of the biggest dope investigations in the history of cycling has collapsed.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2006/oct06/oct29news
While Ullrich is reported to have supplied a DNA sample to clear his name, Basso has so far refused.
http://www.velonews.com/news/fea/11105.0.html
I've been thinking about this list of historical TdF average speeds-- there isn't any particular year where there's a dramatic improvement ... just a steady progression from the very beginning ... if you were to plot the data, you'd be left with gradual slope, rather than a parabolic rise as one would expect from the introduction of EPO.
If the peloton was dirty, and then suddenly clean-- you'd have a chart that resembles that of the Nasdaq after the bubble.
-- to hear Greg Lemond tell it, the peloton had increased its speed to an unbelievable degree, practically overnight, which left him and his team grossly uncompetitive.
-- but his assertion isn't supported by the average speed data.
Check this out
http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/tdf/tdfstats.html
I agree.
I was biased on the negative end after reading Walsh's stuff
..................................
that said, before reading Walsh's book-- I was ready to believe that Landis was innocent because I'm cynical enough to think that the French wouldn't allow another yank on the podium.
It smells foul to me, always did.
...and then there's Operación Puerto.
IMO, there's no credibility from either perspective, whatsoever.
Thursday's 2007 Tour unveiling sure to be contentious
http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/11081.0.html
Campagnolo video-- [4 min. add].
http://www.campagnolo.com/ultratorquevid.php
nope, not yet.
Ohh, I dunno, you're too critical of Lance-- IMO, professional sports is the "Last Refuge of Scoundrels."
...and here I thought it was politics.
If T-Mobile follows through with their plan of a clean team-- then they shouldn't be competitive at all next season-- if they're winning races, on anything longer than a classic, then their clean problem is just another piece of BS.
Btw, this would be a good team for Landis-- once he cleans, ugh, clears his name.
You wonder if he doped consistently?
In the 2005 TDF, both the second and third place riders were implicated in the "Operación Puerto" farce.
If they were doped, he was doped-- a level playing field...
I have a problem with this statement:
But for Lance, it's different. He was the one guy with the power to make the choice for the peloton which fork in the road to take.
Was it not Lemond who complained that entire peloton was riding way beyond what they could do...? He has bitterly complained about the average speeds for years... he's complained to the point of being labeled a whiner.
Did he not have the power...?
Was it not Armstrong and the rest of their Motorola put into a situation to produce results or else lose their sponsorship...?
According to the text, you posted these Americans went to Europe clean. Oddly enough, the only rider on the team that was under Ferrari's care was Axel Merkx, which incidently was the only rider that was even remotely competitive in this new atmosphere of medicine.
...as for Armstrong having the power to clean the peloton-- wasn't it all the riders from Motorola who made the decision to ride the smaller more obscure races to avoid the big dopers who were riding the big races...? In the text, they (US Postal) were saying that doping was so prevalent that they weren't even competitive in the small races.
So now, how does someone who effectively trains and races for one event a year have the power to clean up the entire sport of cycling...? If he had that kind of power could Armstrong actually cleanup baseball too...? What about football...?
With what, better testing...?
We all now know that they can't be tested-- doesn't work.
So what now, in this day of secular lifestyles and liberal politics...?
Guilt by association...?
If anything, Armstrong is a bigger hero than I originally thought-- he took their game, perfected it, then proceeded to crush them both physically and mentally. What he did was grab evil by the throat and chocked it to death. It's what they deserved.
...and now there's nothing left.
keep in mind that the Americans only adapted to an already bad situation
Okay, I'm practically cross-eyed from sitting here in front of my computer reading all this stuff-- in fact, I don't normally sit and read in front of a computer screen for any length of time-- ever...!
I'd have to say the way it's written, not so much the prose, but the way he frames his thoughts in a logical manner. It leaves you with no other choice but to believe that the sport of cycling is corrupted beyond anyone's wildest dreams.
-- what got me...?
The idea that the worlds most "tested" athlete had cancer spread from his testicles, to his midsection, and finally to his brain-- and the only clue was that he was coughing up blood...???
Ohh, la la...!
Page 28 of the third document stated that his urine was too clean, "baby piss." Was Armstrong crafty enough to falsify his urine? Therefor his cancer went unnoticed...?
Sounds like a deal made in hell...
Anyway, I still have another 20 pages to go before I'm done.
thanks for posting.
How far into the race before the first serious attack is made?
-- it happens right away, the peloton forms a death march within the first kilometer, for the most part it's the same a-holes week after week that do this...as for a % -- ohh, I dunno, seems to me if any one rider is too strong he gets bumped up to the next category -- it's actually quite homogenized -- it's a group ride with a sprint at the end.
That said,
my tactics...?
two very different strategies for two very different disciplines:
if I enter a road race, I look for selectivity-- hills, I need hills, and I only start attacking after the first 90 minutes of the race ... 90 minutes is like the magic number around here, weekend warriors without a base soften up considerably after this time period ... all I need to do I survive the beginning and hope to finish strongly.
if I enter a MTB race-- my strategy is to go all out for the first 15-minutes -- this is to position myself ahead of the herd because it's really quite difficult to pass on some of the purer courses in places like Canmore. Once I've positioned myself in (or near) the top-10, then I ride conservatively and hope that I don't crash out.
I ride RR to win.
I ride MTB to survive.
The ten trading commandments
Commentary: Rules learned from a career of successes - and mistakes
By Todd Harrison
Fight? No, not yet. Not until me and Harvey get the rules straightened out. -- Butch Cassidy
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- I remember why I wanted to be a trader. I figured that the easiest way to make money was to stand near the cash register.
Of course, as I discovered through my 16-year career, there's a reason why consistent producers get paid the big bucks. Flashy bets and big swings sometimes connect but, in the end, a disciplined approach pays the bills.
I've tripped plenty through the years, the types of missteps that almost cost me my livelihood. But I preserved, climbed the ladder and morphed those mistakes into valuable lessons. First as a vice-president at Morgan Stanley, then as a managing director at the Galleon Group and, finally, as president of Cramer Berkowitz. My approach wasn't always constant but, in the end, certain rules allowed me to stay in the game.
These are those rules.
1. Respect the price action but never defer to it. The action (or "eyes") is a valuable tool when trading but if you defer to the flickering ticks, stocks would be "better" up and "worse" down and that's a losing proposition. This is a particularly pertinent point as headlines of new highs serve as sexy sirens for those on the sidelines.
2. Discipline trumps conviction. No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and, above all, never believe that you're smarter than the market.
3. Opportunities are made up easier than losses. It's not necessary to play every move, it's only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.
4. Emotion is the enemy when trading. Emotional decisions always have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you're personally attached to a position, your decision making process will be flawed. It's that simple.
5. Zig when others zag. Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects in the context of controlled risk. If you can't find the sheep in the herd, chances are that you're it.
6. Adapt your style to the market. At various junctures, different investment approaches are warranted and applying the right methodology is half the battle. Identify your time horizon and employ a risk profile that allows the market to work for you.
7. Maximize your reward relative to your risk. If you're patient and pick your spots, edges will emerge that provide an advantageous risk/reward. Proactive patience is a virtue.
8. Perception is reality in the marketplace. Identifying the prevalent psychology is a necessary process when trading. It's not "what is," it's what's perceived to be that dictates supply and demand.
9. When unsure, trade "in between." Your risk profile should always be an extension of your thought process. If you're unsure, trade smaller, or paper trade, until your identify your comfort zone. Trading "feel" is cyclical and any professional worth his or her salt must endure slumps.
10. Don't let your bad trades turn into investments. Rationalization has no place in trading. If you put a position on for a catalyst and it passes, take the risk off win or lose.
There are obviously many more rules, but I've found these to be the common thread through the years. Each of you has a unique risk profile and time horizon, so some of these commandments may not apply. As always, I share these thoughts with the hopes that it adds value to your process. Find a style that works for you and always allow for a margin of error. No approach is failsafe.
If there wasn't risk in this profession, it would be called "winning," not trading.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and CEO of Minyanville.
yeah, I guess you're right... <vbg>
-- but the 300-day...?
The reason I look at 200-day MA (and the 50) is because everyone else is looking at them-- the default settings for SC is just that, it's also the default setting for the IBD advanced charting system, and fwiw, I subscribe to both. Which goes back to what I was saying earlier about the massive volatility around those two trend lines. Sometimes I get it right, sometimes I don't-- sometimes I get a pat on the back and sometimes my thread becomes sepulturally silent.
whatever...
The one thing that I am thankful for is that I do not have a short account-- going into yesterday close, I became bearish-- sold my 5000 shares of SLW in the last 10 minutes of trading. Now if I would have had a short account, I'm aggressive enough (crazy enough?) that I would have not only sold those 5000 shares-- I would have also sold short. It's one thing to leave $0.70 per share ($3500) on the table, it's a whole other game altogether to leave $0.70 but to add another $0.70 of shorting losses on top of that. Losing $7000 at the open would of put me into the trauma unit at the Royal Alex for the rest of the day.
Anyway, I went into this morning's action with cash, looking for a pullback-- made a half-dozen successful trades over the day but nothing good enough to cover the money loss from being overly cautious at yesterdays close.
Cyclocosm has been updating his blog this past week--
http://cyclocosm.com/
...and more dripping from a new book
http://www.velonews.com/news/fea/11057.0.html
yeah, I think they made a mistake when it came to the distances in the lower categories-- but my point was and still is that I never want to be involved in a 40km race unless there's a mountain in between the start and the finish lines.
There needs to be selectivity in a Darwinian sense of the word in a race, otherwise all you left with is a bunch sprint at the end.
...as for the the 117km "whopping" distance, I used to ride a 110km round trip to work everyday when I was a slave-- rain or shine, mostly in the rain, and in the hills, at the time I was living in Vancouver-- and still manage to race a couple of times a week...and racing anywhere from 3 to 5-hours at a time in mountain bike races at the amateur level.
...as for my ride...?
you'd better pull up Google Earth and type in "Edmonton" and you'll see a city built around a river valley. It's hilly, not mountainous-- short, steep power climbs ... my ride starts at the core of the city then I head out as far North (along the river) as I can without running out of bike trails (144 Ave NW)-- then I loop back and go as far South as the trails take me (23 Ave)-- it's a round trip of about 80km.
For those of you who know Edmonton I finish my ride on McDougall Hill (to the old hotel) and not let my speed drop below 18kph-- sometimes I do intervals between Connors road and McDougall to get my mileage up and over 100km.
here's something to ponder,
note the failure to break-thru the 200-day MA -- also, we've had a series of lower highs over the past 6-months.
my bet is, we drop thru the 9-day EMA sometime tomorrow morning-- then its a quick trip to the lower Bollinger Band over the next week.
Then I'll start buying again.
you guys are racing 90+ km races there for garden variety age group?!! Aren't you racing Masters?
uh, yeah...?
They held the Worlds Masters Championship RR here in Edmonton last year-- and it was 77km long for my age group, not long enough. Garden variety to me is anything less than 120km. Why do think I ride 80km a day...? In fact, I don't train enough...! I'd go as far as to say that racing CAT3 is easier than Masters.
Here's an example of "garden variety."
http://www.juventus.ab.ca/Results/results2006/Pigeon2006.pdf